What to expect next season?

[jacksonianmarch]

You're wrong.

 

The additions of an in-shape Dice-K, a full season of Buchholz (instead of Smoltz/Penny), and a full season of Victor Martinez instead of Pedroia is worth at lesat 4-5 more wins, IMO. That doesn't mean passing the Yankees, but it also doesn't mean that "major tweaks, major luck, or major injuries" are the only way it can work.

 

I would say that the Yankees NOT having major injuries would be, in and of itself, major luck for the Yankees. If the Yankees lost A-Rod, Teixeira, Rivera, Jeter, or CC they would be a considerably more challenged team.

 

Furthermore, I simply wouldn't be too confident with AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain moving forward, given how poorly they have looked. Joba was bad this year, AJ inconsistent. That's a pretty shallow staff. I assume they'll add Lackey or someone else this year, but still, your head is getting too big for itself here Jacko.

 

 

I MUST be wrong, as per usual I guess, right? Cause it isnt like NY had their injuries either. We lost Wang for the entire season early on. We were without ARod for a month. We lost Posada for a month as well. Blaming injuries solely is a great way to overlook your deficiencies. NY lost 2 months of elite performance at positions that were covered by well below average offensive players and then their best pitcher over the past 3 seasons and won the division by 8 games. If you think adding DiceK back is going to get you over the hump, then, well there's a bridge I have for sale for you.

 

Remember my caveat. Without MAJOR tweaking. Lets say that the sox stand pat on the mound and add Abreu to the OF. Lets just say that's the plan for the offseason. Then you are talking about a 35yr old in LF, a 34yr old in RF, a 36 yr old 3b who looked like a cripple as the yr went along, and a 34 yr old DH who looked like a shell of himself. I am just putting even money out there that the injury bug will hit us both evenly.

[Dipre]

I MUST be wrong, as per usual I guess, right? Cause it isnt like NY had their injuries either. We lost Wang for the entire season early on. We were without ARod for a month. We lost Posada for a month as well. Blaming injuries solely is a great way to overlook your deficiencies. NY lost 2 months of elite performance at positions that were covered by well below average offensive players and then their best pitcher over the past 3 seasons and won the division by 8 games. If you think adding DiceK back is going to get you over the hump, then, well there's a bridge I have for sale for you.

 

Remember my caveat. Without MAJOR tweaking. Lets say that the sox stand pat on the mound and add Abreu to the OF. Lets just say that's the plan for the offseason. Then you are talking about a 35yr old in LF, a 34yr old in RF, a 36 yr old 3b who looked like a cripple as the yr went along, and a 34 yr old DH who looked like a shell of himself. I am just putting even money out there that the injury bug will hit us both evenly.

 

You are wrong as usual.

 

They could re-sign Bay and get a 5th starter. That's not Major tweaking.

 

As on the injury and SUCK front, don't even try.

[jacksonianmarch]

I guess its a matter of semantics. Once Bay became adamant about going to FA, I consider him to be gone. So I am basing my comments on the sox team that is currently under contract.

[Dipre]

I guess its a matter of semantics. Once Bay became adamant about going to FA' date=' I consider him to be gone. So I am basing my comments on the sox team that is currently under contract.[/quote']

 

Under that scenario, then you would indeed be right.

[redsoxmaniac19]

I want the Red Sox to win the World Series! The Yankees have had enough victories! Now it's the Red Sox's turn!

[TheMino007]

There is no reason why the Sox shouldn't have 95 wins and be back in the playoffs next year. The Rays aren't getting any better. The Yankees probably are because money is no objective to them. If the Red Sox stand pat and keep Lowell at third and have Bobby Abreu playing LF and signing no other starters then it will be struggle to make the playoffs and we will lose in the first round again. The AL Central sucks and the Angles are the only good team out West, well the Rangers are pretty good too. Lets see what they do this offseason. If the Sox can sign a number three starter, (Lackey) and get a big bat to play 1st or DH (Gonazlez, Fielder, Cabrera??) and re-sign Bay or sign Holliday then we can and will contend with the Yankees.

[example1]

I MUST be wrong' date=' as per usual I guess, right? Cause it isnt like NY had their injuries either. We lost Wang for the entire season early on. We were without ARod for a month. We lost Posada for a month as well. Blaming injuries solely is a great way to overlook your deficiencies. [/quote']

 

Who is blaming injuries solely? All I'm saying is that when those guys are not hurt a 95 win team would likely win more. Do you argue with that?

 

NY lost 2 months of elite performance at positions that were covered by well below average offensive players and then their best pitcher over the past 3 seasons and won the division by 8 games.

 

A-Rod's injury may have been covered by well below average offensive players, but the rest of the field is covered by well above average offensive players to balance it out.

 

If you think adding DiceK back is going to get you over the hump, then, well there's a bridge I have for sale for you.

 

Cause that's what I said, right? "With Dice-K back they will get over the hump"... or did I say that having Dice-K, Buchholz and Victor Martinez for a full season would offer more and better production than having Penny, Smoltz and Varitek? I think I said that second one...

 

Remember my caveat. Without MAJOR tweaking. Lets say that the sox stand pat on the mound and add Abreu to the OF.

 

Let's not. Getting Abreu would be a downgrade. I'm assuming that they will have either Bay or Holliday. Getting one of them wouldn't be tweaking at all, it will be keeping the status quo in terms of on-field production. That's my starting point.

 

You are assuming Bay is gone. I'm not shocked by that. You're reading from your chart that you ought to respond with glass half-empty doom and gloom for the Red Sox pontification... again. No shock there.

 

Lets just say that's the plan for the offseason. Then you are talking about a 35yr old in LF, a 34yr old in RF, a 36 yr old 3b who looked like a cripple as the yr went along, and a 34 yr old DH who looked like a shell of himself.

 

Under these assumptions you're right. Nobody else shares those assumptions or sees this as anything other than a viable plan F. Let's talk about plans A-E before getting to plan F, shall we?

 

 

I am just putting even money out there that the injury bug will hit us both evenly.

 

I think individually the Yankees are more succeptable to injuries as their roster is older and should be more vulnerable. The confounding factor is that the Yankees have elite production at virtually every position, and some positions have easy HOF caliber talent. That provides a safety net against injury killing this team. If Rivera or CC or Jeter got hurt I would be worried, as a Yankee fan. Otherwise they will be fine.

[TheMino007]

here's what I hope the Sox due at this point in the offseason. Whether we like it or not, the hole at SS has been filled by Scutaro, but there is still work to be done. Get one more arm in the pen (Rafael Soriano hopefully if he declines arbitration from the Braves).

Bring back Bay/ or sign Holliday and fill the void in LF

Trade for Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay

* If the Sox trade for Halladay, pursue Nick Johnson.

* If the Sox trade for a 1B mentioned above, pursue Rich Harden and maybe Lackey

[riverside sluggers]

I think they'll take a step back' date=' rebuild a bit, and load themselves up for 2011. Bay is going to be too expensive to keep and there are no real alternatives on the market or available for trade. I think they take a regression next year, keep relatively the same lineup together and not plan on making a major splash this season. Most of their top prospects are in the lower levels right now, so once they come up by 2011 then I think the Sox are a force to be reckoned with. Will they make the playoffs? Possibly. But I don't see them contending for a championship next year.[/quote']

 

Thats back to back years they will lie low. Last year, the 4 offseason acquistions were Smoltz, Penny, Baldelli, and Saito

[riverside sluggers]

I MUST be wrong, as per usual I guess, right? Cause it isnt like NY had their injuries either. We lost Wang for the entire season early on. We were without ARod for a month. We lost Posada for a month as well. Blaming injuries solely is a great way to overlook your deficiencies. NY lost 2 months of elite performance at positions that were covered by well below average offensive players and then their best pitcher over the past 3 seasons and won the division by 8 games. If you think adding DiceK back is going to get you over the hump, then, well there's a bridge I have for sale for you.

 

Remember my caveat. Without MAJOR tweaking. Lets say that the sox stand pat on the mound and add Abreu to the OF. Lets just say that's the plan for the offseason. Then you are talking about a 35yr old in LF, a 34yr old in RF, a 36 yr old 3b who looked like a cripple as the yr went along, and a 34 yr old DH who looked like a shell of himself. I am just putting even money out there that the injury bug will hit us both evenly.

 

Um the Angels resigned Abreu to a 2 year extension the same week that the world series ended.

 

The Sox's options are: Bay, Holliday, trade for Josh Willingham (keep hearing from Boston writers), and last resort would be giving starter's job to Jeremy Hermida

[yankees228]

RS, note the date.

[Spudboy]

I think they'll take a step back' date=' rebuild a bit, and load themselves up for 2011. Bay is going to be too expensive to keep and there are no real alternatives on the market or available for trade. I think they take a regression next year, keep relatively the same lineup together and not plan on making a major splash this season. Most of their top prospects are in the lower levels right now, so once they come up by 2011 then I think the Sox are a force to be reckoned with. Will they make the playoffs? Possibly. But I don't see them contending for a championship next year.[/quote']

 

Holy s***! Somehow I missed this thread.

 

Essentially, I agree with stocker 323.

 

I don't think the Sox will spend enough money in the off season to compete for 1st place in the division, nor am I confident that the stated corporate objective of 95 wins is a given.

 

I expect them to sign, at best, a gimp pitcher, and 50-60 percentile position players and wait it out until the 2010 deadline and off season.

 

I see them not signing Bay or an upgrade (Holliday) and failing to sacrifice the necessary chips to grab Adrien Gonzalez. Halliday is another wet dream.

 

84-90 wins and third place.

 

Wild card? Nah.

[Gom]

The Red Sox will battle it out with Seattle and Texas for the wild-card, while being the favorites.

 

The Sox players who will trend downward will be Lowell, Ortiz, Drew and Papelbon [whose days as an elite closer are numbered IMO]. Par for the course will be Martinez, Youk, Pedroia, Beckett, Lester. Improvements should be seen in Ells and Buchholz.

 

A full season of Martinez will offset the decreased production of Ortiz.

 

The wildcards are Wake and Matsuzaka. If they can pitch 170+ IP each, the Red Sox will be formidable. If they combine for 170 IP, the Red Sox may miss the playoffs.

[jacksonianmarch]

As constituted right now, the sox are a team that is a contender, but not the favorite for the WC IMO. Their offense has a major hole without Bay. They lack a 3rd reliable pitcher in their rotation. And the defense is below average. Too many holes. Any improvements over the current team, though, brings them into the lead in the WC IMO

[TheMino007]

I agree, with this team the Sox have right now they can win 88-92 and battle it out for the Wild Card. I think the Mariners are making a series push to challenge the Angels for the top seed in the AL West, at any rate the Angels are better than the Sox right now. So are the Yankees. If Texas picks up Jon Lackey they will be a big threat for the WC. Right now the Sox battle it out for the WC with the Rays, Mariners, Rangers, and even the Twins. Its not gonna be easy, I don't think the Sox will get more the 90 wins and make the playoffs with this current roster.

[Dipre]

I agree' date=' with this team the Sox have right now they can win 88-92 and battle it out for the Wild Card. I think the Mariners are making a series push to challenge the Angels for the top seed in the AL West, at any rate the Angels are better than the Sox right now. So are the Yankees. If Texas picks up Jon Lackey they will be a big threat for the WC. Right now the Sox battle it out for the WC with the Rays, Mariners, Rangers, and even the Twins. Its not gonna be easy, I don't think the Sox will get more the 90 wins and make the playoffs with this current roster.[/quote']

 

The Angels are better than the Sox right now? Without Figgins or Lackey and without a DH?

 

By the way, like Francona said, one of my favorite things about this team is their ability to consistently break camp with a Left Fielder year-in/yerar-out, and i don't see that changing this year.

[riverside sluggers]

As constituted right now' date=' the sox are a team that is a contender, but not the favorite for the WC IMO. Their offense has a major hole without Bay. They lack a 3rd reliable pitcher in their rotation. And the defense is below average. Too many holes. Any improvements over the current team, though, brings them into the lead in the WC IMO[/quote']

 

Clay Buchholz is a 3rd reliable starter. Without him, they dont get the wild card this past season

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think you can sit back and say that he will give you X, Y, and Z. Know what I mean? He's given a half season's worth of average performance. Thats not reliable. He is still very much a crap shoot for 2010 as is Joba and Hughes

[Gom]

The Red Sox will get a comparable LF to Bay...if not Bay himself.

 

I wonder if the Sox would entertain bringing back Damon to play LF. An arm in Fenway for leftfield is truly not that important.

[TheMino007]

Well, what about for the other 81 games? I could see Damon's HR's numbers and production dropping b/c he wouldn't play at a field with Little League Dimensions in RF b/c of the jet stream. Bay or Holliday is the way the Sox have to go to fill the LF postion

[Gom]

To tell you the truth, I think that Damon is the better value right now for pretty much any team if you can get him for just a year or two.

[TheMino007]

For a year no doubt, but if he wants anything more than that, no way. I'd say he should be a plan B option for the Sox.

[RWTP24]

What should we expect next season?

 

Well, the Yankees and others keep getting better and the Sox aren't. So I am going to guess a 95 win season and out in the first round of the playoff if this is the team we have right now on the roster. If they can pick up a couple of good pitchers and keep Bay, then maybe we will be ok.. But I do not see us winning it all again anytime soon.

 

 

Btw, the Scutaro pick up was not the answer. I do not know why we keep picking up old guys and think they will be good. Scutaro had a career year last season and it was not anything to write home about. So If he goes back to the Scutaro he has been his whole career, then we are right back where we started in the first place.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox won 95 games last yr and now you are losing Jason Bay. You still think they win 95 games?

[TheMino007]

ou can't give up a shot at a championship for something that might be in the future. Sure by the last years of that contract Bay will be totaly useless and Halladay will have no arm left, but for the majority of those contracts those guys are gonna be All-Stars and in Halladay's case, a top 5 player at his position. Those guys will help us win championships. Who is to say Kalish, Westmorland, Kelly, Anderson, etc. ever become anything? Then you have wasted 5+ years instead of a couple. Can't sacrifice the chance at winning it all for 3 or 4 years for a chance to do it in 5 years while being mediocre for 3 or 4.

[Dipre]

ou can't give up a shot at a championship for something that might be in the future. Sure by the last years of that contract Bay will be totaly useless and Halladay will have no arm left' date=' but for the majority of those contracts those guys are gonna be All-Stars and in Halladay's case, a top 5 player at his position. Those guys will help us win championships. Who is to say Kalish, Westmorland, Kelly, Anderson, etc. ever become anything? Then you have wasted 5+ years instead of a couple. Can't sacrifice the chance at winning it all for 3 or 4 years for a chance to do it in 5 years while being mediocre for 3 or 4.[/quote']

 

Halladay's also a 32-year-old who's got one year left on his contract and is gonna require a massive extension.

 

No qualms about a power bat in LF though.

[ORS]

The sox won 95 games last yr and now you are losing Jason Bay. You still think they win 95 games?

Bay was 4 wins above replacement last year. Hermida was 1.5 in less than a full season's worth of play. You don't think having Matsuzaka and Buchholz in the rotation and having a full year of Martinez at catcher for a full season can make up for that? Don't answer, it's a rhetorical question, we know what you'll say. I'm just reminding you that they can get better in other areas without any transactions occurring.

[jacksonianmarch]

They could, but it would require a lot of luck

[Dipre]

They could' date=' but it would require a lot of luck[/quote']

 

Just like Chamberlain's "Big year" would, but you're really optimistic about that. Bias much?

[jacksonianmarch]

3....reliable....starters. Plus a much better offense.