When will JD get his Due?

[yeszir]

Usually in an argument one side doesn't walk away and say "you're right". You can have an argument without resorting to name calling.

 

That's all I'm saying. From the looks of it, some people understand this and some don't.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Usually in an argument one side doesn't walk away and say "you're right". You can have an argument without resorting to name calling.

 

Name calling? I called him names? Accusations =/= name calling.

 

As I said, if he actually wants to have a baseball discussion instead of an RBI monologue where he disregards every convincing fact/stat/whatever thrown his way, he's welcome to. All he did was say his piece and then cover his ears and sing when opposing ideas came floating in.

 

That's all I'm saying. From the looks of it, some people understand this and some don't.

 

Clearly.

[yeszir]

JD Drew

 

Discuss

[Paradisecity]

It is like God made all of the talksox posters menstruate for 4 days between the regular and postseason.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

J.D. Drew has short fuzzy hair and it makes me smile.

[Paradisecity]

I'm still looking for (and looking forward to) TheKilo's response in our conversation that was like 7 pages ago.

 

Who here believes that JD Drew should be the highest paid player on the Red Sox? Who disagrees? Who replaces him? How much should he be making? How much should Drew be making?

 

Who likes butterscotch?

[rician blast]

Drew's 2009 campaign is really quite similar to his career averages, save for the fact that he managed 137 games (vs career avg of arouund 120). The guy is a nice player, no doubt. He brings a lot to the table in terms of helping his team win, both offensively and defensively. I like him and always have, BUT...

 

What most of his detractors have focused on is his inability to stay healthy and the fact that the Sox are paying $14m per year for a guy with whom there are legitimate concerns regarding how many games he'll play each season. This may never change and IMO is part of the equation when measuring a player's value. While I like the guy, I don't see how anyone can protest the comments regarding his health and time spent on the field as these are real concerns.

[Dipre]

Drew's 2009 campaign is really quite similar to his career averages, save for the fact that he managed 137 games (vs career avg of arouund 120). The guy is a nice player, no doubt. He brings a lot to the table in terms of helping his team win, both offensively and defensively. I like him and always have, BUT...

 

What most of his detractors have focused on is his inability to stay healthy and the fact that the Sox are paying $14m per year for a guy with whom there are legitimate concerns regarding how many games he'll play each season. This may never change and IMO is part of the equation when measuring a player's value. While I like the guy, I don't see how anyone can protest the comments regarding his health and time spent on the field as these are real concerns.

 

Those are valid concerns.

 

But when and how did how many RBI he has come into the equation, and is it a valid concern?

[BoSox21]

my ex's new boyfriend kinda looks like Drew with glasses

[Dipre]

my ex's new boyfriend kinda looks like Drew with glasses

 

That means dude can't play more than 120 games/year with her.

 

He won't live up to the hype of that massive contract.

[Cocos Disciples]

Who here believes that JD Drew should be the highest paid player on the Red Sox? Who disagrees? Who replaces him? How much should he be making? How much should Drew be making?

 

If salary was 100% based on performance and there wasn't anything like arbitration, then no, he shouldn't be the highest paid player because he's not the best player. However I honestly don't think he's overpaid. He had one "bad" year (it was still above average), and has since been one of the best outfielders in baseball.

 

How much should he be making? Fangraphs has a statistic that converts WAR (wins above replacement "to a dollar scale based on what a player would make in free agency". Drew's for the last three years:

 

2007: $5.5M

2008: $18.6M

2009: $20.5M

 

That's $14.86M per year. So yes, he's been worth it.

[Dipre]

If salary was 100% based on performance and there wasn't anything like arbitration, then no, he shouldn't be the highest paid player because he's not the best player. However I honestly don't think he's overpaid. He had one "bad" year (it was still above average), and has since been one of the best outfielders in baseball.

 

How much should he be making? Fangraphs has a statistic that converts WAR (wins above replacement "to a dollar scale based on what a player would make in free agency". Drew's for the last three years:

 

2007: $5.5M

2008: $18.6M

2009: $20.5M

 

That's $14.86M per year. So yes, he's been worth it.

 

Wow. Case closed.

 

Major e-props to CD.

[Paradisecity]

So Fangraphs comes up with a dollar value that states JD Drew would make 20M in free agency?

 

I don't really know where to start with that.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Fangraphs is a pretty good sabermetric site, I'll trust that over subjective judgement.

[Dipre]

So Fangraphs comes up with a dollar value that states JD Drew would make 20M in free agency?

 

I don't really know where to start with that.

 

That's not what he said at all.

 

It's a measure of his production's value when compared to the average player and their average salary.

[redsoxrules]

So Fangraphs comes up with a dollar value that states JD Drew would make 20M in free agency?

 

I don't really know where to start with that.

 

Of corse you dont

 

you dont like JD Drew and Nothing we show you will change your mind

[Paradisecity]

Of corse you dont

 

you dont like JD Drew and Nothing we show you will change your mind

 

Have you read my thoughts in this thread?

 

Or are you just being inflammatory?

[Paradisecity]

That's not what he said at all.

 

It's a measure of his production's value when compared to the average player and their average salary.

 

 

OK, so in effect, these numbers have little to do with what he would command in the open market as a free agent?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

OK' date=' so in effect, these numbers have little to do with what he would command in the open market as a free agent?[/quote']

Pretty much.

[Cocos Disciples]

So Fangraphs comes up with a dollar value that states JD Drew would make 20M in free agency?

 

I don't really know where to start with that.

 

Okay? If you'd like to read up on the statistic, here's a seven part report:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues

 

Maybe I was unclear. It's not supposed to tell you what he would make as a free agent as much as it is supposed to tell you his worth. So when you ask if he is worth it, why is that not a valid metric to use?

[Dojji]

The more I look at Fangraphs, the more I realize just how little I know about sabermetric analysis. It almost scares me just how comprehensive the information on that site is.

[Paradisecity]

Okay? If you'd like to read up on the statistic, here's a seven part report:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues

 

Maybe I was unclear. It's not supposed to tell you what he would make as a free agent as much as it is supposed to tell you his worth. So when you ask if he is worth it, why is that not a valid metric to use?

 

Thank you for clarifying.

 

This is interesting stuff. Thanks. I will have to read more about it. Regardless of whether or not I agree with it, it is surely valid enough to use to state your opinion.

[TheKilo]

Seriously, you guys will resort to any excuse for Drew's failure to produce runs. I don't get the adoration.

 

Look, JD Drew has a lifetime on-base pct of under .300 with the bases loaded. Doesn't matter where he hit or what you consider a "team" stat. A batting average of .206 and OBP of .297 with the bases loaded make JD Drew the anti-RBI man.

 

You, my friend, are a colossal idiot.

[TheKilo]

My only point was that he doesn't contribute enough. Just trying to answer the question asked in the thread header.

 

Sorry for getting all your knickers in a bunch.

 

How does he not contribute enough? He score 84 f***ing runs this season.

[rhet]

You' date=' my friend, are a colossal idiot.[/quote']

 

Yes, it's hard to argue with such an erudite response.

You are no match for me.

[TheKilo]

Yes, it's hard to argue with such an erudite response.

You are no match for me.

 

OK, try this one on for size then:

 

A of 9/29, here are the amounts of baserunners on base while the player is up to bat:

 

[table]Victor Martinez|454

David Ortiz|444

Jason Bay|433

Kevin Youkilis|400

Dustin Pedroia|399

Jacoby Ellsbury|388

Mike Lowell|368

J.D. Drew|317

Jason Varitek|304

Alex Gonzalez|253[/table]

 

Numbers courtesy SoSH

 

At that time, Drew had 70 less runners on base than the Red Sox leadoff hitter.

 

Drew, however, scored 84 runs this season. 10 less than Jacoby Ellsbury in 152 fewer plate appearances. To say Drew doesn't contribute to the offense is simply incorrect and dishonest.

 

The reason Drew doesn't drive in a lot of runs is because of lineup construction. His skillset is the reason that he scores runs at an incredible rate.

 

I don't think RBIs are worthless. They directly lead to runs, which helps the team win. But when looking at individual performances, there are far superior statistics to use when judging players.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Runs scored isn't really an indicator of much. Just as situational and luck-dependent as RBI, only merely implies that the runner is better at getting on base (but by itself provides no closure).

 

 

But I do agree with the general essence of the post.

[TheKilo]

Runs scored isn't really an indicator of much. Just as situational and luck-dependent as RBI, only merely implies that the runner is better at getting on base (but by itself provides no closure).

 

 

But I do agree with the general essence of the post.

 

I disagree, because you can score runs without being driven in via an RBI. I will say that the runs scored stat was more to show his elite OBP skills.

[ORS]

JD Drew's had 128 PA with the sacks full. In his career, he's had 5321 PA. That's 2.4%. In a typical season, a full-time OF will have about 600 PA, and 2.4% of that is 14.4 PA. That's like 3 games worth.

 

To rhet, would you place much confidence in 3 games worth of PA as being meaningful toward any kind of analysis?

[rhet]

JD Drew's had 128 PA with the sacks full. In his career, he's had 5321 PA. That's 2.4%. In a typical season, a full-time OF will have about 600 PA, and 2.4% of that is 14.4 PA. That's like 3 games worth.

 

To rhet, would you place much confidence in 3 games worth of PA as being meaningful toward any kind of analysis?

 

14 PA are not statistically significant. That's why I used his career numbers. 128 PA in that situation produce a confidence interval of 8% at a 95% confidence level.

 

Nevertheless, this is not a point value argument. It is one of relative worth. When someone argues against the use of RC, and for the use of RC/27, the list of players ahead of Drew doesn't change much. If he's the 8th or 10th or 12th best right fielder, based on all the empirical evidence, the answer to the thread header question is obvious.