When will JD get his Due?

[Cocos Disciples]

The GM was being defensive.

It's happened before. He makes mistakes, just like all of us. Please don't ask me to list his mistakes - please.

 

And folks, there is no need to jump ugly with me. I enjoy discussing ball with you guys, so let's just calm down, ok?

 

There's absolutely no way you can say this with any kind of confidence.

 

Sure he's being defensive because it helps your argument. Of course, you have no idea if it's true.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I'll take that as your acknowledgment that a two time WS champion GM has made some mistakes. Stipulated.

Epic trolling.

[Cocos Disciples]

I'll take that as your acknowledgment that a two time WS champion GM has made some mistakes. Stipulated.

 

Name one General Manager in any sport, in the history of sports, who has not made a few mistakes. One.

[rhet]

He's being defensive because while JD Drew is being nothing but one of the most productive OF's in baseball, people keep bashing him.

 

Put that .900 + OPS in the three, four, or five spot, and he probably contributes 100 RBI.

 

You're just bashing Drew with no way to back up your argument without resorting to such a useless statistic as RBI.

 

He can't hit 3rd or 4th because he doesn't drive in runs. The manager obviously knows this.

[rhet]

Epic trolling.

 

 

OK, that's the consensus.

 

I'm done "trolling" for the day. See ya.

[redsoxrules]

He can't hit 3rd or 4th because he doesn't drive in runs. The manager obviously knows this.

 

LOL

 

when Tito hit him 3rd in june of 2008 , how many rbi's did he have that month ?

[Dipre]

He can't hit 3rd or 4th because he doesn't drive in runs. The manager obviously knows this.

 

Now you're just grasping at straws.

 

How can you justify a .500 SLG, 900+ OPS player not being able to hit 3rd and 4th.

 

And to further strengthen my case, you're actually using Tito's "logic" as an argument.

 

Fantastic.

[redsoxrules]

Since 2008, Drew's OPS+ of 132 is second best among all AL outfielders with at least 900 plate appearances.

 

 

Over the life of his Red Sox contract, he has been the third best defensive right fielder in baseball

 

 

what the f*** more do you want from him ?

[Dipre]

Since 2008, Drew's OPS+ of 132 is second best among all AL outfielders with at least 900 plate appearances.

 

 

Over the life of his Red Sox contract, he has been the third best defensive right fielder in baseball

 

 

what the f*** more do you want from him ?

 

Not to mention he's one of less than 20 OF's to actually amass 900 PA's since 2007.

[Dojji]

He can't hit 3rd or 4th because he doesn't drive in runs. The manager obviously knows this.

 

Ain't that recursively delicious.

[Paradisecity]

I challenge an ambitious member of this forum to use probability and statistics (3 year average) to tell us how many runs per game a lineup of 9 JD Drews would score, and provide the formula.

 

(I'm lazy, and its somewhat complex)

[rhet]

Using the RC sabermetric formula on the ESPN MLB stats site (Runs created = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)), Drew created 91.6 runs for the Sox in 2009, which was 11th in MLB for right fielders, behind Choo, Suzuki, Werth, Ethier, Markakis, Abreu, Upton, Cuddyer, Hawpe and Swisher. Using this method, 9 JD Drews would create 824 runs (9x91.6=824) in 2009. In 2008, Drew created 79.0 RC runs, which was 16th among RFers, behind Markakis, Ludwick, Suzuki, Abreu, Dye, Giles, Ethier, Bradley, Winn, Nady, Ordonez, Hawpe, Pence, Hart and Werth. 9x79.0=711. In 2007, Drew created 76.1 RC runs, 14th among RFers behind Ordonez, Suzuki, Markakis, Hawpe, Abreu, Swisher, Hart, Francoeur, Winn, Guillen, Kearns, Cuddyer and Pence. 9x76.1=685. The three year average is 82.2, which would total an average of 740 runs created per year for 9 JD Drews.

 

The Red Sox as a team scored 872 runs this year, 845 runs in 2008 and 867 runs in 2007. That's a three year average of 861 runs.

 

So 9 JD Drews would create an average of 740 runs a season, which is 16% less than the number of runs the Sox actually scored, according to the sabermetric formula used by ESPN.

[Mr Crunchy]

Quick, get Rhets IP address, I'll fedex him 10,000 scorpions and a bag of dog s***.

the f***er is bad mouthing Herr Theo and his Holiness and that isnt proper on this forum, no one can bad mouth theo and drew without being labeled a troll unless you've been here forever.

 

Christ almighty give the guy a break, hes telling it as he sees it, that aint trolling its simple discussion.

 

Drew had a good September and managed to finish the year with .278 avg and his power #s went up too. This guy has been effective in the playoffs and his bat is essential if we plan on going anywhere this October..His RBI #s,although not meaningful to many on this panel, are however putride just the same.

Id like him to be a little more aggressive up at the plate and would sacrifice some of those walks for doubles with guys on base, at any rate we are where we wanted to be.

October baseball and a good staff of arms should be exciting.

[Mr Crunchy]

Im not a #s guy but his OPS #s are amongst the top of right fielders.

This guy finally played an entire year, he came to work every day and surprised me by not missing any meaningful time down the stretch, his absence last year cost us the division I feel and his consistant play in September this year allowed us the luxury of closing out Texas early rather than being in a s*** fight down to the wire.

Hes been a great bat in the playoffs for us in the past so lets hope he continues on the path that Jesus has laid out for him and we get to play some s*** bag national league team in 3 weeks.

[Paradisecity]

Using the RC sabermetric formula on the ESPN MLB stats site (Runs created = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)), Drew created 91.6 runs for the Sox in 2009, which was 11th in MLB for right fielders, behind Choo, Suzuki, Werth, Ethier, Markakis, Abreu, Upton, Cuddyer, Hawpe and Swisher. Using this method, 9 JD Drews would create 824 runs (9x91.6=824) in 2009. In 2008, Drew created 79.0 RC runs, which was 16th among RFers, behind Markakis, Ludwick, Suzuki, Abreu, Dye, Giles, Ethier, Bradley, Winn, Nady, Ordonez, Hawpe, Pence, Hart and Werth. 9x79.0=711. In 2007, Drew created 76.1 RC runs, 14th among RFers behind Ordonez, Suzuki, Markakis, Hawpe, Abreu, Swisher, Hart, Francoeur, Winn, Guillen, Kearns, Cuddyer and Pence. 9x76.1=685. The three year average is 82.2, which would total an average of 740 runs created per year for 9 JD Drews.

 

The Red Sox as a team scored 872 runs this year, 845 runs in 2008 and 867 runs in 2007. That's a three year average of 861 runs.

 

So 9 JD Drews would create an average of 740 runs a season, which is 16% less than the number of runs the Sox actually scored, according to the sabermetric formula used by ESPN.

 

That is a good start rhet, but I mean specifically using probability, how many runs JD after JD would score per inning, per game, per season. I believe it is a more complicated method, but I could be wrong. What you say may be all there is to it. But i think it is along these lines:

 

So out 0, he has a v percent change of making first base by hit, an x percent by other, a y percent chance of making second, z third, letter a percent chance of hitting a home run, and b percent chance of making an out

 

Next at bat he has a v percent change of making first base by hit, x percent change of making first base via other, a y percent chance of making second, z third, letter a percent chance of hitting a home run, a c percent chance of hitting into a double play.

 

Then apply percentage probabilities that runners advance to respective bases given each scenario, etc.

 

 

This seems like a job for excel solver! Man, I wish I had paid more attention in that quant methods course.

 

I think with enough gumption I could work this out, I just have a feeling that Bill James or Jed Hoyer already has...

[Dojji]

Using the RC sabermetric formula on the ESPN MLB stats site (Runs created = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF))' date=' Drew created 91.6 runs for the Sox in 2009, which was 11th in MLB for right fielders, behind Choo, Suzuki, Werth, Ethier, Markakis, Abreu, Upton, Cuddyer, Hawpe and Swisher. Using this method, 9 JD Drews would create 824 runs (9x91.6=824) in 2009. [/quote']

 

824 runs is pretty good, you know.

[Mr Crunchy]

Too bad theyre not all robots.

we could crown the Yanks world series winners every March 31st if this were the case.

[Paradisecity]

824 runs is pretty good' date=' you know.[/quote']

 

 

 

Not so quick to attack him now?

[Paradisecity]

Too bad theyre not all robots.

we could crown the Yanks world series winners every March 31st if this were the case.

 

 

I get your point Seano, but over the course of 162 games, these statistics do matter. We know management is building a team to make the playoffs every year, because we all know the playoffs are a crapshoot.

[redsoxrules]

Using the RC sabermetric formula on the ESPN MLB stats site (Runs created = [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[bB - IBB + HBP] + .52[sH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)), Drew created 91.6 runs for the Sox in 2009, which was 11th in MLB for right fielders, behind Choo, Suzuki, Werth, Ethier, Markakis, Abreu, Upton, Cuddyer, Hawpe and Swisher. Using this method, 9 JD Drews would create 824 runs (9x91.6=824) in 2009. In 2008, Drew created 79.0 RC runs, which was 16th among RFers, behind Markakis, Ludwick, Suzuki, Abreu, Dye, Giles, Ethier, Bradley, Winn, Nady, Ordonez, Hawpe, Pence, Hart and Werth. 9x79.0=711. In 2007, Drew created 76.1 RC runs, 14th among RFers behind Ordonez, Suzuki, Markakis, Hawpe, Abreu, Swisher, Hart, Francoeur, Winn, Guillen, Kearns, Cuddyer and Pence. 9x76.1=685. The three year average is 82.2, which would total an average of 740 runs created per year for 9 JD Drews.

 

The Red Sox as a team scored 872 runs this year, 845 runs in 2008 and 867 runs in 2007. That's a three year average of 861 runs.

 

So 9 JD Drews would create an average of 740 runs a season, which is 16% less than the number of runs the Sox actually scored, according to the sabermetric formula used by ESPN.

 

Tito benched Drew at least 20 times where there was no injury this year

if it wasent for that those number would be much higher

blame our wonderfull manager for that not Drew

[Paradisecity]

Tito benched Drew at least 20 times where there was no injury this year

if it wasent for that those number would be much higher

blame our wonderfull manager for that not Drew

 

 

In a 3 year average, JD has fewer AB's than he reached this season, so I think you can throw that argument out the window.

[Mr Crunchy]

Tito benched Drew at least 20 times where there was no injury this year

if it wasent for that those number would be much higher

blame our wonderfull manager for that not Drew

 

Tito rested Drew in game 2 of the season for precautionary reasons.

this guy would go missing for 4 weeks with a "'strained quad"" or the gimpy hammy or the tweaked groin, thats not my opinion thats fact.

Theres a reason Drew played more consistantly this year, he did get his 25 games off but they didnt come all at once, they were sprinkled over a 6 month period.

Period?? hahaha, cant resist.

His manager knew when he wasnt feeling so ahh fresh is it?

 

anyway

I thought Tito played this thing out pretty well with Drew and as evidenced by his September his mindset worked, Tito has a good ability to read his guys as a former ball player and I would be the 1st to admit that playing outfied from February till almost November would f*** most people up at some time during the season.

This year we didnt have long bouts without Drew and consequently he was more consistant down the stretch.You wonder why these guys use growth hormones?

 

They dont want to be labeled a guy who cant be counted on.

this year we could count on drew in 99% of the games we played, when he sat it was the managers decision for the most part and this is a good thing.

Drew can be counted on this year in the post season and thats a big bonus for us.

[Dipre]

My bad. I shouldn't have just thrown a number out there without a source.

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

[Paradisecity]

Sweet- do they have a page where they show what is behind this? I'd love to see it.

[Dipre]

Sweet- do they have a page where they show what is behind this? I'd love to see it.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/19/192135/078

[ORS]

Christ almighty give the guy a break, hes telling it as he sees it, that aint trolling its simple discussion.

This. There a quite a few members here who think disagreement is trolling. It's just disagreement. Rhet's entitled to his opinion and analysis, both of which I think are wrong, and those that disagree with him are faced with the challenge of showing him the error of his ways and stuff like "LOL, RBIs r teh suk" doesn't cut it.

 

His attempt to answer Paradisecity's question was incorrect. JD Drew's run production is limited by the ability of the other people in the lineup. If they make outs faster than he does, and most do, his opportunities are limited, at least they are relative to how many opportunities he'd have with 8 other JD Drew's in the lineup. To determine what 9 JD Drew's would do you have to look at how many RC he creates per out and multiply it by 27 (amount of outs in a game - the "clock" of baseball). Fortunately, RC/27 is a stat that they keep. His 3 year average RC/27 is 7.0.

 

That's pretty good. A team with 9 JD Drew's in the lineup scores 1134 runs a year. This of course assumes he plays every day. He's averaged 129 games played over the last 3 years. Adjusting the total for his playing time, 9 JD Drews score 903 runs per season.

 

It's really not more complicated than that Paradise. The RC is based off of years and years of team total output. So, in large part, it captures the situation dependent results you mentioned in your clarification of what you were looking for.

[Dipre]

This. There a quite a few members here who think disagreement is trolling. It's just disagreement. Rhet's entitled to his opinion and analysis, both of which I think are wrong, and those that disagree with him are faced with the challenge of showing him the error of his ways and stuff like "LOL, RBIs r teh suk" doesn't cut it.

 

His attempt to answer Paradisecity's question was incorrect. JD Drew's run production is limited by the ability of the other people in the lineup. If they make outs faster than he does, and most do, his opportunities are limited, at least they are relative to how many opportunities he'd have with 8 other JD Drew's in the lineup. To determine what 9 JD Drew's would do you have to look at how many RC he creates per out and multiply it by 27 (amount of outs in a game - the "clock" of baseball). Fortunately, RC/27 is a stat that they keep. His 3 year average RC/27 is 7.0.

 

That's pretty good. A team with 9 JD Drew's in the lineup scores 1134 runs a year. This of course assumes he plays every day. He's averaged 129 games played over the last 3 years. Adjusting the total for his playing time, 9 JD Drews score 903 runs per season.

 

It's really not more complicated than that Paradise. The RC is based off of years and years of team total output. So, in large part, it captures the situation dependent results you mentioned in your clarification of what you were looking for.

 

*sigh*

 

Half the board couldn't get it down, i thought i had it with the baseball musings lineup analysis, but as usual, the dude with the sensei picture had to come and lay the smackdown.

[yeszir]

Epic trolling.

 

No. That wasn't trolling. You're trolling with your post. He's trying to have a baseball discussion and you guy's can't seem to disagree without coming across as douches.

 

Back on topic.

[Paradisecity]

This. There a quite a few members here who think disagreement is trolling. It's just disagreement. Rhet's entitled to his opinion and analysis, both of which I think are wrong, and those that disagree with him are faced with the challenge of showing him the error of his ways and stuff like "LOL, RBIs r teh suk" doesn't cut it.

 

His attempt to answer Paradisecity's question was incorrect. JD Drew's run production is limited by the ability of the other people in the lineup. If they make outs faster than he does, and most do, his opportunities are limited, at least they are relative to how many opportunities he'd have with 8 other JD Drew's in the lineup. To determine what 9 JD Drew's would do you have to look at how many RC he creates per out and multiply it by 27 (amount of outs in a game - the "clock" of baseball). Fortunately, RC/27 is a stat that they keep. His 3 year average RC/27 is 7.0.

 

That's pretty good. A team with 9 JD Drew's in the lineup scores 1134 runs a year. This of course assumes he plays every day. He's averaged 129 games played over the last 3 years. Adjusting the total for his playing time, 9 JD Drews score 903 runs per season.

 

It's really not more complicated than that Paradise. The RC is based off of years and years of team total output. So, in large part, it captures the situation dependent results you mentioned in your clarification of what you were looking for.

 

 

 

Thanks- and thanks to Dipre for the links.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

You're trolling with your post. He's trying to have a baseball discussion and you guy's can't seem to disagree without coming across as douches.

 

He can join the baseball discussion whenever he likes, as opposed to stating a theory/opinion that has tons of holes in it, and either ignoring or giving a 'lalalalala can't hear you' response to every single post that acknowledges holes in said theory. Then stating the silly idea again, and not responding to the mountains of evidence to the contrary, etc., etc..

 

Back on topic.

 

Ooh, guess my two cents on this matter was un-called-for.