Our SS Situation

[Dojji]

LOL!

 

You want defense, implying that offensive production is subordinate.

 

Yet you don't want Gonzo?

 

Well thought out there.

 

Gonzo is not good enough defensively to not hit. By UZR/150 he's only a little above average with the glove. Limited range hurts him a lot.\

 

When I say "go for defense" I mean really go for defense, not just scrounging up some no-bat veteran who survives on his reputation like Gonzo.

[Dojji]

Damn straight.

 

Socrates was the balls though.

 

Socrates taught some of the most unpleasant and unsavory characters in Greek history, and by many accounts was one himself. He annoyed his neighbors so much they voted in a bloc to kill him. I'm pretty sure the Socratic method has something to do with that.

[Dojji]

Wow, really? Smells a whole lot like the "marginal" upgrade from Teixeira to our 3B statue.

 

20x all-star, FTW.

 

Take a good long look into the depths of your own soul and tell me you really want to start that all over again.

 

Matt Holliday is about a run better than Bay offensively. it's something like 34 to 33 offensive runs above average on the year. Any gains will come on the defense end. And we're talking left fielder here. Not exactly a premium defensive position. Add in that Holliday's overall defensive numbers are well down this year for some reason and has gotten worse as the season went along (below zero UZR/150 with the Cards,above with the A's, averaging to 1 or so), and as long as Bay makes the routine plays, I don't think left field is a place we need to rock the boat.

 

Although to really make such things as RAR useful I need to find one that does RAR/150 so we're comparing apples to apples.

 

Not unless we can trade for Carlos Beltran anyway.

[TheKilo]

But there's the question as to whether you see Bay in LF in two or three years (I don't) vs. Holliday (I do).

 

So, yes, you do need to weigh the defensive side of things as well.

[Dojji]

But there's the question as to whether you see Bay in LF in two or three years (I don't) vs. Holliday (I do).

 

So, yes, you do need to weigh the defensive side of things as well.

 

Where else would he be? Sure, he's got below average range in left, but it's not going to get that much worse from here between now and whenever his injuries catch up with him.

 

It's worth noting that while he is below average this year he is a significant improvement over where he was at the same time last year. To say nothing of the whole Manny thing.

[ORS]

Take a good long look into the depths of your own soul and tell me you really want to start that all over again.

 

Matt Holliday is about a run better than Bay offensively. it's something like 34 to 33 offensive runs above average on the year. Any gains will come on the defense end. And we're talking left fielder here. Not exactly a premium defensive position. Add in that Holliday's overall defensive numbers are well down this year for some reason and has gotten worse as the season went along (below zero UZR/150 with the Cards,above with the A's, averaging to 1 or so), and as long as Bay makes the routine plays, I don't think left field is a place we need to rock the boat.

 

Although to really make such things as RAR useful I need to find one that does RAR/150 so we're comparing apples to apples.

 

Not unless we can trade for Carlos Beltran anyway.

Is it "something like" 34 to 33, or is it 36 to 26, because when I go to BBRef, that's what I see? You let me know what you find though.

 

10 runs

 

Why does it need to be a premium defensive position to want the better defender? 1 to -8 by UZR/150.

 

9 runs

 

Just based on this year's numbers, Matt Holliday is 2 wins better than Jason Bay. On top of that, they'd net a sandwich pick for a type-A swap out.

 

2 win improvement (at one position) + a top 50 pick = marginal (to you)

 

Assinine.

[Dojji]

Yeah, I went to Fangraphs and got 34.3 for Holliday and 33.2 for Bay. Replacement value still favors Holliday, mostly because of defense.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF#value

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF#value

 

Interestingly Baseball-Reference is not kind to Mr. Holliday's glove. If I'm reading this right it says for his career, Holliday is actually a slightly below average left fielder. (about 2.3 runs below average over his career).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml#standard_fielding

 

 

it's entirely possible I'm not reading this right.

 

2 win improvement (at one position) + a top 50 pick = marginal (to you)

 

disregarding the nontrivial risk of getting neither.

 

We're a playoff bound team with either bay or Holliday next year. Monkeying with that for the sake of draft picks? that's asinine.

[jacksonianmarch]

actually, ORS, if Bay goes to any other team than NY (and assuming its a team that doesnt pick in the top 15) then the "swap out" of Bay for Holliday moves them up in the draft while netting a sandwich pick and a better player. The only prohibitive factor in all of this is the cost.

[example1]

I'll say it again: the risk they run in trying to sign Holliday is that it pisses off Bay and he goes elsewhere and they end up with neither. Unless there is reason to believe Holliday really wants to play in Boston, Bay is the safer choice IMO.

 

I do believe that Holliday is the better player, and is a true middle of the order bat, which they need. Bay ends up hitting 5th, sometimes 6th. He's streaky, but very likeable and obviously immensely talented.

 

Overall, I think neither is the true upgrade they need. Holliday OR Bay will be simply a way to remain where they are now, which isn't good enough to overtake the Yankees for the AL East. They hoped to have Bay AND Teixeira this year, but that didn't work out well. It does, however, give us an idea of how stacked this FO was hoping their team could be moving forward, and it offers an exciting number of possible upgrades to this already very good team.

 

If they sign Bay and trade for someone like Adrian Gonzalez or Hanley Ramirez then nobody will be arguing over the difference in value between Holliday and Bay, we'll just be happy to have one of them in LF. I'm hopeful that the FO has this type of move in mind for the off-season. This team isn't far from having an absurdly SICK offense:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Martinez

Gonzalez-ish player

Youkilis

Ortiz

Bay/Holliday

Drew

Lowrie

 

or

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ramirez

Youkilis

Holliday/Bay

Martinez

Ortiz

Lowell

Drew

 

The possibilities get absurd, especially with a #3 hitting SS... Good god.

[jacksonianmarch]

You dont deal for Gonzalez this yr unless you move Lowell or another 1b type player. As it stands for 2010, the sox will have 4 guys for three spots and the 2 best choices for odd men out are the most difficult to move in Lowell and Ortiz. Adding Gonzalez to that mix makes things more complicated than they are worth when you consider the extension and the players needed to make it happen. Plus, the Padres are something like 32-21 in their last 53 games and think they can make a play for 2010 if they get one more piece.

[Dipre]

Yeah, I wasn't sure, so I went with the edit.

 

He's got connections to Miami, and the largest hispanic poulation in Miami is Cuban, but it didn't sound right.

 

He's Puerto-Cuban FYI.

[example1]

You dont deal for Gonzalez this yr unless you move Lowell or another 1b type player. As it stands for 2010' date=' the sox will have 4 guys for three spots and the 2 best choices for odd men out are the most difficult to move in Lowell and Ortiz. Adding Gonzalez to that mix makes things more complicated than they are worth when you consider the extension and the players needed to make it happen. Plus, the Padres are something like 32-21 in their last 53 games and think they can make a play for 2010 if they get one more piece.[/quote']

 

I imagine they would be willing to eat Lowell's remaining season at this point to keep the lineup from being too cluttered. He's still got some value and he's not THAT old. Believe me, I'm not fooling myself into thinking he's Brooks Robinson out there, but he's a decent player if he gets some rest.

 

My main thought is that the FO tried to make a splash with Teixeira last year, and instead kept basically the offense they have had all year this year--even with Lowell in tow. That tells me that they know they need to upgrade and they will probably try very hard to do so. If they can do so while also having Victor Martinez in the lineup, then they are even better off than they might have otherwise been.

[Dipre]

Socrates taught some of the most unpleasant and unsavory characters in Greek history' date=' and by many accounts was one himself. He annoyed his neighbors so much they voted in a bloc to kill him. I'm pretty sure the Socratic method has something to do with that.[/quote']

 

His methods are also the precursor for most breakthroughs in philosophy since his death, not to mention the benchmark for modern litigation methods.

 

I suggest if you don't know what you're talking about, to save your opinions to yourself.

[Dojji]

His methods are also the precursor for most breakthroughs in philosophy since his death, not to mention the benchmark for modern litigation methods.

 

I suggest if you don't know what you're talking about, to save your opinions to yourself.

 

And when did I contradict that?

 

Socrates was pretty much the ultimate brilliant *******.

[Spudboy]

Where else would he be? Sure, he's got below average range in left, but it's not going to get that much worse from here between now and whenever his injuries catch up with him.

 

It's worth noting that while he is below average this year he is a significant improvement over where he was at the same time last year. To say nothing of the whole Manny thing.

 

Bay is poor defensively. Go to a game once in a while and you will see him toil like a toddler in left field.

 

UZR, UZR/150 don't reflect this.

[Dojji]

Bay is poor defensively. Go to a game once in a while and you will see him toil like a toddler in left field.

 

UZR, UZR/150 don't reflect this.

 

Actually, UZR/150 does reflect that Bay is a poor left fielder. my point is that for the next 2-3 years at least he's unlikely to get significantly worse.

[BSN07]

Well, next year we need a third baseman. Several people don't want Lowell to come back. Several have mentioneed Mark Reynolds. Well, I think we can get someone even better: Albert Pujols. I say we package Wakefield in a deal and try to land Pujols. He can hit with power and field decently. I think he would be a great addition.

 

I think Lowell has been great, but landing Pujols would be sooooooooooo much better IMO...

I choked on a piece of bacon while reading this

But there's the question as to whether you see Bay in LF in two or three years (I don't) vs. Holliday (I do).

 

So, yes, you do need to weigh the defensive side of things as well.

This is a really good and valid point. One could argue he could be the DH post Papi. But I agree, he only has a couple years left in the OF. Although Fenway does help to mask a lot of his inabilities.

[rhet]

Actually' date=' UZR/150 does reflect that Bay is a poor left fielder. my point is that for the next 2-3 years at least he's unlikely to get significantly worse.[/quote']

 

Jacoby Ellsbury has the 2nd worst UZR in baseball for his position. (At -12.7, it's the same as Bay's.)

 

UZR is a near meaningless stat.

[example1]

You dont deal for Gonzalez this yr unless you move Lowell or another 1b type player. As it stands for 2010' date=' the sox will have 4 guys for three spots and the 2 best choices for odd men out are the most difficult to move in Lowell and Ortiz. [b']Adding Gonzalez to that mix makes things more complicated than they are worth when you consider the extension and the players needed to make it happen.[/b] Plus, the Padres are something like 32-21 in their last 53 games and think they can make a play for 2010 if they get one more piece.

 

I'm curious about this part Jacko. What does "worth" mean to a Yankee fan? You discuss moves in terms of "worth" for other clubs, but when the Yankees do it who cares how much it costs? I'm probably reading you wrong, but I'm asking in all seriousness.

 

The extension you're talking about, do you mean Gonzalez's? He's signed for a number of years IIRC. He would be a great addition.

 

I agree he would make things more complicated, but I think he would also make things "more better" ( ) because he's a tremendous talent.

 

Personally, I think the Sox FO realizes that the most effective way to keep up with the Yankees is through pitching. If they can have 5 elite starters on the team that can be the equivalent in wins overall to the Yankees entire dominant lineup over the course of the season.

 

Again, it will be a very interesting off season...

 

Personally, I'm not really looking forward to the post season as much as I thought I would. In 2003 I got the worst headaches humanly imaginable after the Sox lost to the Yankees. I later discovered that every few years I get a cyclical type of headache called "Cluster Headaches" which are quite literally intolerable. They make migranes look like a walk in the park. Their occurance combined with my Sox obsession and their loss in 2003 has forever made me kind of fear the fall and the playoffs in particular. I got them last year again, so hopefully I won't this year. I don't think the stress of the playoffs helps at all. As most of you probably know, it is hard to think about much else during the day before an ALDS or ALCS game. It is hard to imagine that intensity now, at the end of the season, but it is coming... yes, it is coming. And I kind of dread it.

[Mr Crunchy]

I used to get cluster headaches when i was younger, maybe between 14-23??

nothing cures them and all you can do is lay in the dark with a facecloth over your head.

I had them all the time at 14, Id routinely get them after a football game, never practice but just about after every game Id get them, Id get them in school and just roll into the nurses office and sleep for a couple hours and Id be ok but then they just went away when I turned 16.

After a car accident just before my 17th birthday I had some head trauma and they returned and I would get them periodically, for whatever reason the fall and spring would be the worst.

Its like having the worst wine hangover ever with nothing available to cure it, picture a little monkey in your head beating your brain like a bass drum, picture your eyes having so much pressure on them you think they'll pop out of your head and if you could you'd assist this scenario but the worst thing is any sound at all is like listening to a Moby/George Michael duet singing for your pleasure only.

Suicides have been linked to cluster headaches and the only thing I know that works is to dope yourself up on some calm pills and eat some painkillers and try and sleep them away.

the good news is they do go away, the bad news is the sox losing in a typical I CANT FUKIN BELIEVE THIS HAPPENED fashion will bring them on,stay away from booze,smoking, anything that restricts your capalaries will intensify the misery

[example1]

I used to get cluster headaches when i was younger, maybe between 14-23??

nothing cures them and all you can do is lay in the dark with a facecloth over your head.

I had them all the time at 14, Id routinely get them after a football game, never practice but just about after every game Id get them, Id get them in school and just roll into the nurses office and sleep for a couple hours and Id be ok but then they just went away when I turned 16.

After a car accident just before my 17th birthday I had some head trauma and they returned and I would get them periodically, for whatever reason the fall and spring would be the worst.

Its like having the worst wine hangover ever with nothing available to cure it, picture a little monkey in your head beating your brain like a bass drum, picture your eyes having so much pressure on them you think they'll pop out of your head and if you could you'd assist this scenario but the worst thing is any sound at all is like listening to a Moby/George Michael duet singing for your pleasure only.

Suicides have been linked to cluster headaches and the only thing I know that works is to dope yourself up on some calm pills and eat some painkillers and try and sleep them away.

the good news is they do go away, the bad news is the sox losing in a typical I CANT FUKIN BELIEVE THIS HAPPENED fashion will bring them on,stay away from booze,smoking, anything that restricts your capalaries will intensify the misery

 

You are absolutely right on about them. I am well-aware of the restrictions one has when you're in a "cluster"--specifically not having booze or cigs or certain kinds of foods. They are absolutely horrible and they make me feel like I'm going insane. I writhe around on the bed squeezing my head between two pillows and begging for them to stop. They only last about 45 minutes, but nothing makes them go away. Usually I take some strong painkillers and when the headache subsides I'm in la la land for a few hours sleeping afterwards. They come with regularity, every day at the exact same time for about a month or two. Unfortunately, the past few times that has been at about 11am, so I eventually had to take FML at work for a few weeks. That sucked and only adds to the stress of having them.

 

Anyway, not to ramble on about medical conditions (though this one is a freakish one). My point--and you hit it on the head--is that playoff baseball adds a certain kind of stress that really doesn't help them at all. I will be hoping for swift victory or swift defeat.

[Dojji]

I wonder what it WOULD take to land Jose Reyes.

 

He wouldn't be cheap, but could you imagine Ellsbury and Reyes one and two in our batting order? Teams would need to invent the relief catcher.

 

Ellsbury singles to the opposite field, Reyes drives a double into the gap and steals third, or triples outright, then scores on a Victor Martinez flyout, 2-0 Boston, 1 out. We'd see that scenario play out several times.

[rhet]

I wonder what it WOULD take to land Jose Reyes.

 

He wouldn't be cheap, but could you imagine Ellsbury and Reyes one and two in our batting order? Teams would need to invent the relief catcher.

 

Ellsbury singles to the opposite field, Reyes drives a double into the gap and steals third, or triples outright, then scores on a Victor Martinez flyout, 2-0 Boston, 1 out. We'd see that scenario play out several times.

 

Buccholz.

[Dipre]

Buccholz.

 

That, in turn, means no Jose Reyes for us.

[BSN07]

I wonder what it WOULD take to land Jose Reyes.

 

He wouldn't be cheap, but could you imagine Ellsbury and Reyes one and two in our batting order? Teams would need to invent the relief catcher.

 

Ellsbury singles to the opposite field, Reyes drives a double into the gap and steals third, or triples outright, then scores on a Victor Martinez flyout, 2-0 Boston, 1 out. We'd see that scenario play out several times.

 

I don't think Reyes would be extremely expensive. He's got 10:$9M,

11:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout) left on his deal. Not too bad, but not exactly peanuts. Given the Mets current financial circumstances, it wouldn't be to bold to say they might be cutting payroll soon.

 

Don't see them moving Santana. Too difficult IMO. Plus his elbow issue.

 

Not sure I see Wright moving either. It be nice, but he seems like the player to build around.

 

You could make a case for Beltran and Reyes being made available.

 

Besides those 4, there isn't much else I'd be that interested in.

[Dojji]

If we could score Beltran and Reyes both, then you move Buchholz.

[BSN07]

Buccholz.

 

I don't think his price would be that high. They might ask but they probably know already it's going to be a no. I think Reyes price tag($), plus his bout with injuries ultimately lowers his trade value.

 

I think it could be more of a Bowden/MDC/+1 type deal. The +1 being a young low level pitcher, one of the better OF prospects, or a SS/C prospect.

 

Given Reyes question marks, I would think that be a good deal.

[BSN07]

If we could score Beltran and Reyes both' date=' then you move Buchholz.[/quote']

 

It's hard to argue that. But I honestly don't see them moving Buchholz anymore. So that deal might not be obtainable. Unless your sending Dice-K back. Then maybe there's enough to build a package around:dunno:

[Dipre]

It's hard to argue that. But I honestly don't see them moving Buchholz anymore. So that deal might not be obtainable. Unless your sending Dice-K back. Then maybe there's enough to build a package around:dunno:

 

Lol dude again with Matsuzaka?

[BSN07]

Lol dude again with Matsuzaka?

 

I only mention him because I'm sure the Mets would want a ML caliber SP back. Beckett/Lester/Buchholz I would assume not be going anywhere. That leaves Dice-K, because I don't feel and of the other SP prospects are close enough.

 

I'm not just saying his name because I want him out of town or anything like that. He was the SP going the other way from process of elimination.