Catching the Yankees

[Paradisecity]

With an 8 game lead in the wild card, it is time to start looking at more ambitious goals.

 

Currently, we sit 5 games behind the yankees, 4 in the loss column. Before our series in NY, we have 4 against the Royals, while they have three with the Angels.

 

With Grienke v Byrd as one of the matchups, a 4 game sweep seems somewhat unlikely. 3 out of 4, however, seems very do-able.

 

The yanks, meanwhile, will be on the west coast with our favorite postseason team. With the pitching matchups being somewhat similar across the board, I would guess the yanks win 2, maybe 1.

 

This would leave us with a good possibility of going into Yankee Stadium down 3.5-4.5.

 

With that said, should we still be shooting for the division? Or should we be more concerned with taking it easy on our starters and the members of the pen who will be throwing a lot in October?

[BSN07]

If it happens fine, if not oh well. They should be lining up their rotation for the Playoffs regardless.

 

 

 

Detroit would be a nice change of pace for the 1st round though(I think that's who they would play if the win the East). I know the Sox have really had great Success against the Angels, but that has to end sometime right? And now they Have Kazmir, who has really given the Six issues. Detroit has Verlander and after that? Porcello? He is a 21 year old rookie. He can't have too much left in the tank you would think. Washburn?

 

Detroit looks like the weaker team to me.

[Dipre]

If it happens fine, if not oh well. They should be lining up their rotation for the Playoffs regardless.

 

 

 

Detroit would be a nice change of pace for the 1st round though(I think that's who they would play if the win the East). I know the Sox have really had great Success against the Angels, but that has to end sometime right? And now they Have Kazmir, who has really given the Six issues. Detroit has Verlander and after that? Porcello? He is a 21 year old rookie. He can't have too much left in the tank you would think. Washburn?

 

Detroit looks like the weaker team to me.

 

Washburn's done for the year.

 

So Detroit has a rotation of Verlander-?-Rook.

[BSN07]

Then maybe the division crown might be worth going for.

[Dojji]

Washburn's done for the year.

 

So Detroit has a rotation of Verlander-Jackson-Rook.

 

Fixed.

 

And yeah, Verlander or no Verlander the Tigers aren't going to be much of an opponent in the potseason. They could get lucky of course but I can't really see them matching the Yankees.

[Emmz]

Just looking at the records, yeah, you notice that Detroit is definitely the weaker team. And yeah, their rotation is of Verlander, Porcello and guys who are either unproven or not very good. Of course we'd rather play them than the Angels, even if we have had success against them. Also, it'd be nice to have the Yankees face off against the Angels

 

Edit: Forgot about Edwin Jackson, guy's a beast

[Dipre]

Fixed.

 

And yeah, Verlander or no Verlander the Tigers aren't going to be much of an opponent in the potseason. They could get lucky of course but I can't really see them matching the Yankees.

 

I meant Jackson was a question mark, Einstein.

[Emmz]

Meh, Jackson is a beast when he's on, and his ERA is around 3.4 which is pretty solid. He's better than Porcello, but he's not anything like Verlander

[Dipre]

Meh' date=' Jackson is a beast when he's on, and his ERA is around 3.4 which is pretty solid. He's better than Porcello, but he's not anything like Verlander[/quote']

 

Jackson's peripherals tell you a lot of his success this year is park and luck-related.

 

The man can't get 5 Ks to save his life.

[Dojji]

I don't think that's fair. A bad month doesn't erase everything he's done up to that point. I think if you're Tigers brass you still go into October with some faith in Edwin Jackson.

[Emmz]

He pitched pretty much lights out this year, for the majority atleast, but yeah he hasn't had a season anything like it

[Dipre]

I don't think that's fair. A bad month doesn't erase everything he's done up to that point. I think if you're Tigers brass you still go into October with some faith in Edwin Jackson.

 

It's not about whether if you think it's "Fair" or not.

 

It's about performance and what it indicates.

 

Jackson is a nice pitcher, but is he a #2 on a playoff team?

[Dojji]

There's definitely more than luck to his performance this year. Even beyond anything park factors are responsible for, Jackson's dropped his bb/9 by a full walk this year. His WHIP` went from 1.5 to 1.2.

 

Park factors don't make a pitcher hit his spots. In fact he was probably "luckier" last year really.

[Dipre]

There's definitely more than luck to his performance this year. Even beyond anything park factors are responsible for' date=' Jackson's dropped his bb/9 by a full walk this year. Park factors don't make a pitcher hit his spots.[/quote']

 

Yeah but they help reduce bombs and XBH.

 

Not to mention, again, that a shallow look at his numbers is misleading.

[Paradisecity]

 

Jackson is a nice pitcher, but is he a #2 on a playoff team?

 

He will be if he pitches in the second playoff game for the Tigers this year.

 

Regardless of whether or not he is as good as our #2 or the yanks, I would have to say that he is the Tigers definitive #2 starter, wouldn't you? In which case, this debate would be about whether or not the Tigers have a good enough #2 starter, rather than who will be their second starter.

[Dojji]

Yeah but they help reduce bombs and XBH.

 

Not to mention, again, that a shallow look at his numbers is misleading.

 

But park factors still don't make a guy walk fewer hitters. That bb/9 is absolutely not park dependent.

 

Incidentally, Jackson's FIP is also well down this year, from 4.8 with Tampa in '07. to 4.2 this year with Detroit. Suggesting that there's luck involved, but not JUST luck, in his performance.

[Dipre]

But park factors still don't make a guy walk fewer hitters. That bb/9 is absolutely not park dependent.

 

Incidentally, Jackson's FIP is also well down this year, from 4.8 with Tampa in '07. to 4.2 this year with Detroit. Suggesting that there's luck involved, but not JUST luck, in his performance.

 

His FIP is still near a run higher than his ERA, which might be a better indicator.

 

Jackson has definitely benefited from from Detroit's defense and their home park, but with all external factors aside, let me ask again:

 

Is Edwin Jackson really a #2 starter for a playoff team?

[BSN07]

Argue all you want about the stats, this is how I'm looking at it,

 

Verlander vs Beckett wash

 

Lester > Jackson

 

Buchholz = or > Porcello

 

Dice-K > better then anything they have left.

[yankees228]

Fixed.

 

And yeah, Verlander or no Verlander the Tigers aren't going to be much of an opponent in the potseason. They could get lucky of course but I can't really see them matching the Yankees.

 

You picked the Tigers to beat the Yankees in the playoff predictions thread...

[Dojji]

Do you really need me to explain that to you?

[yankees228]

Do you really need me to explain that to you?

 

In one post you justify the Tigers beating the Yankees in a short series because "Verlander and Jackson>Sabathia and Burnett". In another post you say that you don't see the Tigers matching the Yankees.

 

I didn't get much sleep last night, and if I'm missing something I apologize, but I don't see it.

[Dojji]

And in between those two statements the Tigers have done their level best to choke away their division lead and miss the playoffs entirely.

 

But yeah, that was a misstatement on my part. The rotation really does favor the Tigers. I was stretching that because I wanted to believe that they'll handle the Yankees so we don't have to. Boston-New york playoff series are very bad for my blood pressure.

 

But I really do think that their bullpen is going to have a hard time keeping key Yankees off the boards.

[yankees228]

And in between those two statements the Tigers have done their level best to choke away their division lead and miss the playoffs entirely.

 

But yeah, that was a misstatement on my part. The rotation really does favor the Tigers. I was stretching that because I wanted to believe that they'll handle the Yankees so we don't have to. Boston-New york playoff series are very bad for my blood pressure.

 

But I really do think that their bullpen is going to have a hard time keeping key Yankees off the boards.

 

Makes sense, but I really don't think the "Do you really need me to explain that to you" is justified. You contradicted yourself, and such a small sample size shouldn't be enough to change your opinion.

 

As for the Yankees, all things considered, I would feel pretty fortunate if the lead was 3.5 games going into the weekend. Considering who both teams play, and how both teams are playing, only losing one game in the loss column wouldn't be that bad.

 

If that happens, then it comes down to what happens over the weekend. If the Yankees take two of three they would basically seal the division. If the Yankees take one of three I would still feel good about things with a 2.5 game lead going into the final week, and the Yankees playing the Royals at home (and missing Greinke). Obviously, if the Red Sox swept, we'd be in for a very interesting final week.

[RWTP24]

You picked the Tigers to beat the Yankees in the playoff predictions thread...

 

Me too. :harhar:

[RWTP24]

How crazy would it be if the Angels sweep the Yanks and the Sox sweep the KCR?

 

That would be a 1.5 game lead. That series would mean so much then.

 

Now with that said, I do not think it would happen like that, but if it did, it would be a crazy weekend.

[yankees228]

It's also worth noting that, in almost any plausible scenario, if the Red Sox tie the Yankees, they win the division.

[Dojji]

Right, because we'd win the head to head by the inferred action of tying the division lead.

[yankees228]

Right' date=' because we'd win the head to head by the inferred action of tying the division lead.[/quote']

 

Right, I mean, technically it's possible for the Yankees to sweep this weekend, yet still end up tied for the division, but it's practically impossible.

[PWNdroia]

All we can do is try. We certainly have a chance. Not a big one, but it's still there.

[Mr Crunchy]

I doubt we catch NY and I dont want to go all out to get it done either.

Ny is in a psuedo funk now and they see the Angels while we're playing Kc, we can gain a game here.

In 04 we played NY in the last weekend of the season, they beat us and locked up the division that Saturday when D Lowe pitched his way out of the playoff rotation and got annilihated that day.

We know how D Lowe pitched in the playoffs that year and the rest is history.

Of all major sports home field means less in Bball than it does in the other sports so if we have to go balls out on the last weekend to win it may not be the way to handle things but of course Id rather see Detroit or Minneappolis than Anaheim all day.