Expectations for the Yankees down the Stretch

[example1]

Yeah, but the "better team" is determined over the course of 162 games. That "better" only has 5 games in the ALDS to show itself.

 

I mean, look at what the numbers tell you. Yes, the Yankees win 64% of their games, but the Tigers win 53% of theirs. In a rudimetary adjustment for expectations, the Yankees have a 54% expectation of winning each game [ 64 / (64+53)]. I realize home/road, pitcher vs. lineup, etc will add more realism to this adjustment for each game, but the point is to show that when you pit two good teams against each other, expectations, at least those for individual games, should kind of get tossed out the window.

 

And, you could consider it like rolling dice, only that the dice are weighted, and the weighting is very slight. Enough to favor one side, but close enough to consider it almost random.

 

Yeah, I don't expect you to read all of my blather above, but I used the weighted dice analogy above too. I also mentioned above that I mistook crapshoot to have been argued as completely random. Your explanation is similar to my line of thinking, though I think that a loss in a 7 game series shouldn't always be attributed to luck.

[RWTP24]

You have to prove me wrong for me to admit it.

 

That's the beauty of it.

 

The problem is you are always right..

[yankees228]

For all the Yankee fans who consider the division to be over, think about this for a second.

 

Right now the Yankees lead the Red Sox by 6 games (7 in the win column, 5 in the loss column). The Yankees have two more games against Seattle and then three games against Anaheim. They're not playing great baseball right now, and it is entirely possible that they go 2-3.

 

The Red Sox have two more games against Baltimore and three more games against Kansas City. How many of those games can we reasonably expect them to lose, especially considering how well they're playing? One? Maybe two?

 

If the Yankees go 2-3 and the Red Sox go 5-1, going into next Friday, the Yankees would be leading the Red Sox by 3.5 games (4 in the win column, 3 in the loss column).

 

If that happens, the division is by no means over.

[RWTP24]

For all the Yankee fans who consider the division to be over, think about this for a second.

 

Right now the Yankees lead the Red Sox by 6 games (7 in the win column, 5 in the loss column). The Yankees have two more games against Seattle and then three games against Anaheim. They're not playing great baseball right now, and it is entirely possible that they go 2-3.

 

The Red Sox have two more games against Baltimore and three more games against Kansas City. How many of those games can we reasonably expect them to lose, especially considering how well they're playing? One? Maybe two?

 

If the Yankees go 2-3 and the Red Sox go 5-1, going into next Friday, the Yankees would be leading the Red Sox by 3.5 games (4 in the win column, 3 in the loss column).

 

If that happens, the division is by no means over.

 

Hey just so you know, the Sox play 4 in KC.

 

Also, that what I was saying earlier, that it is very possible the Sox can make a run for the division. I am glad there is a Yankees fan that will admit it.

 

So with that said, if they go 6-1 like I said the Sox might do. That would put the Sox 2.5 or 3 out, I am not sure which.

[yankees228]

Hey just so you know, the Sox play 4 in KC.

 

Also, that what I was saying earlier, that it is very possible the Sox can make a run for the division. I am glad there is a Yankees fan that will admit it.

 

So with that said, if they go 6-1 like I said the Sox might do. That would put the Sox 2.5 or 3 out, I am not sure which.

 

Well, it depends what the Yankees do over the next five games. If the Red Sox go 6-1 on this road trip, which I expect them to do, the Yankees would have to go 1-4 for the deficit to fall to 2.5. I don't think that's going to happen. However, I would not be stunned if the the Yankees went 2-3, putting the deficit at 3.5 come next Friday.

 

If the Yankees were to go 3-2 over during the rest of this road trip, and then avoid getting swept against the Red Sox, I don't see any reasonable way the Red Sox win the division.

[RWTP24]

Well, it depends what the Yankees do over the next five games. If the Red Sox go 6-1 on this road trip, which I expect them to do, the Yankees would have to go 1-4 for the deficit to fall to 2.5. I don't think that's going to happen. However, I would not be stunned if the the Yankees went 2-3, putting the deficit at 3.5 come next Friday.

 

If the Yankees were to go 3-2 over during the rest of this road trip, and then avoid getting swept against the Red Sox, I don't see any reasonable way the Red Sox win the division.

 

If that happened, the Sox would not win the division.

 

You guys just need to do anything to not get swept by the Angels. That would kill you guys.

[yankees228]

As far as how far the Yankees will go in the postseason and the "crapshoot argument", consider this...

 

Lets say the Yankees win the division and play Detroit in the first round. Very likely.

 

Game one would be Sabathia against Verlander. It's entirely possible that Verlander is simply untouchable and beat Sabathia, putting the Tigers up in the series.

 

Game two would be Burnett against Jackson. It's entirely possible that Burnett has one of his awful outings, and Jackson pitches well enough to hang on, putting the Tigers up 2-0 in the series.

 

You cannot deny that not only are those situations possible, there's a decent chance that they happen. If that were to occur, the Yankees would be one win away from elimination, going on the road. It would be far from an utter failure.

[yankees228]

If that happened, the Sox would not win the division.

 

You guys just need to do anything to not get swept by the Angels. That would kill you guys.

 

If they split the next two than I agree. However, if they win the next two, but still get swept by the Angels, there's a good chance that they'd still be 3.5 up going into the Red Sox series. That's not awful shape.

[RWTP24]

Hey, is Garadi sitting guys already??

 

I will tell you, I think it is really stupid how he is handling some of you pitchers, but that is just me.

[Dipre]

The problem is you are always right..

 

Usually, yes.

 

But is that so bad?

[yankees228]

Hey, is Garadi sitting guys already??

 

I will tell you, I think it is really stupid how he is handling some of you pitchers, but that is just me.

 

Which pitchers?

[RWTP24]

Which pitchers?

 

I think Andy and Joba. I thought I read somthing like skipping starts or short starts.

[RWTP24]

Usually, yes.

 

But is that so bad?

 

Nope. Not at all.

[yankees228]

I think Andy and Joba. I thought I read somthing like skipping starts or short starts.

 

Andy is injured. I don't see what Joe has to do with that. Joba is an organizational decision.

[RWTP24]

Relax man!

 

That is why I asked you.. I did not really know what was going on, therefore, I asked you because I knew you could tell me.

[yankees228]

Relax man!

 

That is why I asked you.. I did not really know what was going on, therefore, I asked you because I knew you could tell me.

 

Where did it look like I wasn't relaxed? I responded to your post. Isn't that what you wanted?

[RWTP24]

Where did it look like I wasn't relaxed? I responded to your post. Isn't that what you wanted?

 

Sorry, when I was reading it you sounded like you were pissed.. Like duh, you idiot, you should have known that already. It is hard to see emotions on this damn internet thing.

[yankees228]

Sorry' date=' when I was reading it you sounded like you were pissed.. Like duh, you idiot, you should have known that already. It is hard to see emotions on this damn internet thing. [/quote']

 

lol, it's ok. I'm rarely pissed at people on the internet. Seems like a waste of time.

[Dipre]

lol' date=' it's ok. I'm rarely pissed at people on the internet. Seems like a waste of time.[/quote']

 

Liar.

 

You know the interwebz are serious business.

[yankees228]

Liar.

 

You know the interwebz are serious business.

 

Would seem like a good time for one of those images, but I guess you're not allowed anymore lol.

[Dipre]

Would seem like a good time for one of those images' date=' but I guess you're not allowed anymore lol.[/quote']

 

I know.

 

This is why TalkSox must revolt against the killers of the lulz.

[RWTP24]

Liar.

 

You know the interwebz are serious business.

 

 

Agreed! There should be no joking around. Just straight business on the internet.

[Cocos Disciples]

We're the Yankees of the internet. I hope you're all clean shaven.

[RWTP24]

[yankees228]

Division is far from over.

[yankees228]

So assuming the Yankees lose today, the lead will be 5 games (6 in the win column, 5 in the loss column).

 

The Yankees have three games with the Angels with this week, and the pitching match-ups are:

 

Pettitte vs. Saunders

Gaudin vs. Santana

Burnett vs. Kazmir

 

The Red Sox have four games with the Royals this week, and the pitching match-ups are:

 

Wakefield vs. DiNardo

Byrd vs. Greinke

Beckett vs. Hochevar

Buchholz vs. Hughes

 

I see the Yankees taking one of three, and the Red Sox taking three of four. That would put the lead at 3.5 games (4 in the win column, 3 in the loss column) heading into the weekend series. What does everyone else think?

[example1]

I think this reminds me a lot of 2004. Yankees took a big lead and it slowly disappeared over the last few weeks of the season while the Sox were paying more attention to the wild card. The Sox are also performing roughly at their pythag record and the Yanks are outperforming theirs. I suspect that the Yankees will win at least one game in their Sox series and so the lead will not be jeopardized.

 

Long story short, the Sox will remind everyone that they're still a force to be reckoned with but the Yankees will win the division because they're a good team with a good lead.

[yankees228]

I think this reminds me a lot of 2004. Yankees took a big lead and it slowly disappeared over the last few weeks of the season while the Sox were paying more attention to the wild card. The Sox are also performing roughly at their pythag record and the Yanks are outperforming theirs. I suspect that the Yankees will win at least one game in their Sox series and so the lead will not be jeopardized.

 

Long story short, the Sox will remind everyone that they're still a force to be reckoned with but the Yankees will win the division because they're a good team with a good lead.

 

Yup, I've said numerous times that I expected September to play out very similar to 2003 and 2004.

[example1]

The Yankees pitching is pretty bad right now though. Joba got hit hard again today.

[Dipre]

The Yankees pitching is pretty bad right now though. Joba got hit hard again today.

 

That should be a major headache for the Yanks come playoff time.