The KiloMetric Returns

[TheKilo]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/436551-post387.html

 

I'm pumped for the post deadline Kilometric.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/10992-kilometric-part-deux.html

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/9516-kilometric.html

 

It's becoming Talksox tradition. For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, I predict the outcome of the Yankees, Sox, and Rays series the rest of the way and predict who out of the ALE wins the division.

 

It's coming, it will be in place by the end of the night, so get psyched.

[BSN07]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/436551-post387.html

 

 

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/10992-kilometric-part-deux.html

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/9516-kilometric.html

 

It's becoming Talksox tradition. For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, I predict the outcome of the Yankees, Sox, and Rays series the rest of the way and predict who out of the ALE wins the division.

 

It's coming, it will be in place by the end of the night, so get psyched.

 

Awesome:thumbsup:

[BoSox21]

goddamnit, I happened to like these pants too...

[BSN07]

goddamnit' date=' I happened to like these pants too...[/quote']

 

:lol:

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

What a snob.

 

 

 

I'm kidding

[yeszir]

goddamnit' date=' I happened to like these pants too...[/quote']

 

:lol::lol: I'm saving that for year end post of the year consideration

[Cocos Disciples]

Yayyyyy. But way to not credit me on that quote.

[TheKilo]

Yayyyyy. But way to not credit me on that quote.

 

I can't copy quotes from locked threads.

[Cocos Disciples]

Ah, yes.

[BoSox21]

I'm psyched he's doing it on the eve of arguably the team's most critical stretch of the season

[jacksonianmarch]

I will tell you this, without a significant improvement in one of the sox starting pitchers, the kilometric could have the sox out of the playoffs

[Spudboy]

I will tell you this' date=' without a significant improvement in one of the sox starting pitchers, the kilometric could have the sox out of the playoffs[/quote']

 

Only one? I'd prefer to have 4 quality starters, at least. I'm greedy, I suppose.

[jacksonianmarch]

Only one is enough. You need to have 3 pitchers whom you can reasonably count on to give you innings and keep you in the game on a regular basis. The other two spots can be up for grabs assuming your offense is strong.

[Dojji]

I will tell you this' date=' without a significant improvement in one of the sox starting pitchers, the kilometric could have the sox out of the playoffs[/quote']

 

I could say the same about the Yankee bullpen.

[Dipre]

I could say the same about the Yankee bullpen.

 

I was just typing this.

[Dojji]

Now THAT is scary.

[jacksonianmarch]

I could say the same about the Yankee bullpen.

 

Hughes and Mo are as good as it gets back there. I do agree that something needs to stabilize. Coke and Aceves got creamed in two consecutive outings, but they had been good up to that point. But it isnt about the pens and you all know it. If you throw starters out there 60% of the time who are throwing meat and not giving innings, then you arent winning this division.

[Dojji]

Hughes and Mo are as good as it gets back there. I do agree that something needs to stabilize. Coke and Aceves got creamed in two consecutive outings' date=' but they had been good up to that point. But it isnt about the pens and you all know it. If you throw starters out there 60% of the time who are throwing meat and not giving innings, then you arent winning this division.[/quote']

 

And if you're getting 6 good innings then getting murdered in the 7th, likewise.

 

A really good bullpen or a really bad one can very much be that level of difference.

[jacksonianmarch]

A 7th inning pitcher is not as important as a starter. Lets not be dumb here.

[Dojji]

Not having the 7th locked down impacts all your starters. Let's not be deliberately oblivious here.

[jacksonianmarch]

You like to twist things now dont you. That being said, I agree that the sox 7th inning is more secure than the yankees. But one bad outing aside for both of them, Aceves and Coke have been pretty damn good in that role to this point.

[Dojji]

You like to twist things now dont you. That being said' date=' I agree that the sox 7th inning is more secure than the yankees. But one bad outing aside for both of them, Aceves and Coke have been pretty damn good in that role to this point.[/quote']

 

And those bad outings turned a 2 1/2 game lead into a 1/2 game lead. And you have to go back to relying on them for the next game too.

 

You said what, again?

[Dipre]

You like to twist things now dont you. That being said' date=' I agree that the sox 7th inning is more secure than the yankees. But one bad outing aside for both of them, Aceves and Coke have been pretty damn good in that role to this point.[/quote']

 

Phil Coke's peripherals suggest he's been massively lucky to this point.

 

Don't overvalue him, as you usually do.

[Dojji]

Nothing says "this guy will implode" quite like a .232 BABIP

 

Phil Coke = Sean Henn

 

Brand new toilet, same old crap.

[jacksonianmarch]

Coke's outing came with the yankees trailing by 4 and Aceves' shitbox came with the yankees trailing by 1. Both of those games were put out of reach by their s*** performance, but neither of them were the losers of the game especially since the yanks scored no more runs after they entered the game. So actually, your statement is inaccurate. They both sucked, but they were not the culprits

[VA Sox Fan]

Go KiloMetrics! Good luck!

 

f*** you jacko!!

[jacksonianmarch]

It is really difficult to predict BABIP when you take into account situational relievers. Coke has faced 36 more lefties than he has faced righties, which is not the standard split in major league baseball. This is what is called a confounder and a good reason why a theorum like BABIP would not apply.

[Dojji]

It is really difficult to predict BABIP when you take into account situational relievers. Coke has faced 36 more lefties than he has faced righties' date=' which is not the standard split in major league baseball. This is what is called a confounder and a good reason why a theorum like BABIP would not apply.[/quote']

 

It is really, really, really easy to say that a .232 BABIP is unsustainable. this player is getting far more outs by contact than it is reasonable to suggest he can sustain for a career. There's nothing situational about this.

[Spudboy]

Now THAT is scary.

 

"Sweet Lord".

[jacksonianmarch]

I will agree with you on something here. There is no way he continues his BAA of .235 vs righties. That wont be sustainable. But the BAA and really low BABIP vs lefties with his stuff is acceptable and expected. Take a look at any left handed reliever worth their salt and look up their BABIP vs lefties. Go for it. None of them would be anywhere near .300. All will be lower. Hence why they are relievers. AND, BABIP is a stat that is expected to regress to a mean over a significant amount of time and based on a mean of all pitchers around baseball. So it isnt about luck when you talk about:

 

A- a part time pitcher

B- a situational part time pitcher

 

The rules dont apply. Have you taken statistics? Do you know what a confounder is? Its like trying to perform a study on populations and lung cancer without controlling for smoking. Lefties hit lower vs lefties. Without correcting for that confounder, the idea that a situational lefty regresses to a pre-set mean based on all the pitchers in the game is bogus.