Interesting stats from April and May

[jacksonianmarch]

So this thread is meant to shed some light on the surge in NY and the swoon in Boston. And to be honest with you, it surprised me a bit when I actually looked up the numbers.

 

Lets start in April...

 

Offensive Stats April 2009

The Boston Red Sox were 5th in the majors in runs scored with 126 (5.7 runs per game). They were third in OPS (.827) and 4th in OBP (.364)

 

The Yankees were a lot better than I thought. They were 4th in the majors in runs with 128 (5.8 runs per game). They were 6th in OBP (.362) and 2nd in OPS (.835)

 

so how has that changed....

 

Offensive Stats May 2009

The Red Sox are 13th in the majors in runs scored with 130 (4.8 per game). They are 8th in the majors in OBP (.349) and 6th in OPS at (.794)

 

The Yankees are 5th in the majors in runs scored and 4th in runs per game with 141 runs scored and an average of 5.4 per game. They are 9th in OBP at .348 yet 1st in OPS at .844. That is based on the amazing SLG they have in May which sits at .496, 21 points higher than the next best club.

 

So the offensive analysis from the first two months sees the sox dropping in RPG by 0.9 runs per game and the Yankees dropping 0.4RPG.

 

On to the pitching...

 

April 2009 pitching stats

The Red Sox were 17th in ERA in April with an ERA of 4.52. They were 8th in K's at 162 and 21st in WHIP at 1.48

 

The Yankees were 29th in ERA in April with an ERA of 5.79. That is deceiving, though, since Wang was really the difference maker there. Subtract him out, and our ERA is 4.88. We were 10th in K's at 156 and tied with the sox in 21st for WHIP at 1.48.

 

May 2009 pitching stats

The Red Sox are 19th in ERA at 4.50 in May. They are 5th in K's at 198 and 21st in WHIP at 1.44.

 

The Yankees are 12th in the MLB with a 4.22ERA, 8th in K's at 192 and 20th in WHIP at 1.43

 

Overall, the Red Sox have really stayed pat in the pitching department in terms of runs allowed and WHIP. While the yankees have seen significant improvement in the ERA department.

 

So overall, both teams actually scored runs better in April than they did in May. The yankees are scoring about 0.4 runs per game less than what they did in April, but they are allowing 1.5 runs per game less for an aggregate differential of about +1.1 runs per game. This has been the major impetus in their 16-10 record for the month. The Red Sox OTOH, have gotten about the same out of their pitching staff as they did in the first month, but are scoring 0.9 runs per game less, leaving them with a differential of -0.9 runs per game. This is the major impetus to their 14-13 record and a big reason why they are in second place at this juncture.

[example1]

So this thread is meant to shed some light on the surge in NY and the swoon in Boston. And to be honest with you, it surprised me a bit when I actually looked up the numbers.

 

Lets start in April...

 

Offensive Stats April 2009

The Boston Red Sox were 5th in the majors in runs scored with 126 (5.7 runs per game). They were third in OPS (.827) and 4th in OBP (.364)

 

The Yankees were a lot better than I thought. They were 4th in the majors in runs with 128 (5.8 runs per game). They were 6th in OBP (.362) and 2nd in OPS (.835)

 

so how has that changed....

 

Offensive Stats May 2009

The Red Sox are 13th in the majors in runs scored with 130 (4.8 per game). They are 8th in the majors in OBP (.349) and 6th in OPS at (.794)

 

The Yankees are 5th in the majors in runs scored and 4th in runs per game with 141 runs scored and an average of 5.4 per game. They are 9th in OBP at .348 yet 1st in OPS at .844. That is based on the amazing SLG they have in May which sits at .496, 21 points higher than the next best club.

 

So the offensive analysis from the first two months sees the sox dropping in RPG by 0.9 runs per game and the Yankees dropping 0.4RPG.

 

On to the pitching...

 

April 2009 pitching stats

The Red Sox were 17th in ERA in April with an ERA of 4.52. They were 8th in K's at 162 and 21st in WHIP at 1.48

 

The Yankees were 29th in ERA in April with an ERA of 5.79. That is deceiving, though, since Wang was really the difference maker there. Subtract him out, and our ERA is 4.88. We were 10th in K's at 156 and tied with the sox in 21st for WHIP at 1.48.

 

May 2009 pitching stats

The Red Sox are 19th in ERA at 4.50 in May. They are 5th in K's at 198 and 21st in WHIP at 1.44.

 

The Yankees are 12th in the MLB with a 4.22ERA, 8th in K's at 192 and 20th in WHIP at 1.43

 

Overall, the Red Sox have really stayed pat in the pitching department in terms of runs allowed and WHIP. While the yankees have seen significant improvement in the ERA department.

 

So overall, both teams actually scored runs better in April than they did in May. The yankees are scoring about 0.4 runs per game less than what they did in April, but they are allowing 1.5 runs per game less for an aggregate differential of about +1.1 runs per game. This has been the major impetus in their 16-10 record for the month. The Red Sox OTOH, have gotten about the same out of their pitching staff as they did in the first month, but are scoring 0.9 runs per game less, leaving them with a differential of -0.9 runs per game. This is the major impetus to their 14-13 record and a big reason why they are in second place at this juncture.

 

Where were all the detailed comparisons between the Yankees and Sox when the Yanks were behind? This has all the makings of a "rub it in your face/pat self on the back" post...

 

Oh well, you deserve it Jacko. The Yankees are the better (hotter) team right now.

 

The Sox pitching has been its strong point the past few years and I expect it will be again by the end of the season. If Ortiz doesn't come around though then this team is in trouble, unless Theo does something pretty significant. It seems like the runners on base follow him wherever he goes and he is just a cliff off of which potential runners fall to their death. The Red Sox are not built to have gaping dead spot in their lineup. Does it remind you of the Yankees situation with Giambi the past few years?

 

It should be interesting to see if Theo does anything, and compare what he does with what Cashman did. I'm inclined to think that he won't and that he will let it play out, that in a few weeks this team will have seperated itself from the rest of the AL East (Yankees not included) and that the WC will be within their sights for the rest of the season. Mark Teixeira would have really helped this team out. Douchebag.

[TheKilo]

This team looks like they did at the beginning of the season.

 

Old

[jacksonianmarch]

I actually made this thread expecting to see a big jump in offense from our end with an improvement on the pitching end and thinking the sox would be seeing a marginal drop in both offensive and pitching stats. But that wasnt the case. I am dumbfounded that the yankees would hit as well as they did without ARod. 5.8 runs per game is ridiculous. Granted, Cano and Swisher were hitting near .400 for 3 weeks, which helped. I was also surprised to see the sox ERA be pretty much the exact same and that their O dropped so much.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lets break em down one by one...

 

Kevin Youkilis had a .395/.505/.697 line in April for an OPS of 1.202

His May .340/.458/.574 for an OPS of 1.032. His delta OPS is -.170

 

Julio Lugo only had 6ABs in April, so that doesnt count. His May is

.271/.329/.371 for an OP of .700. For reference, Nick Green's OPS in May is .759 and his in April was .782.

 

Jason Bay put up a line of .324/.490/.634 for an OPS of 1.123 in April. His May is .260/.339/.600for an OPS of .939. His delta OPS is -.184

 

Mike Lowell put up a line of .310/.341/.571 in April for an OPS of .912. His May is .295/.315/.476 for an OPS of .791. His delta OPS is -.121

 

Jacoby Ellsbury put up a line of .287/.320/.351 in April for an OPS of .671. In May, his line is .319/.353/.398 for an OPS of .751. His delta OPS is +.080

 

Dustin Pedroia put up a line of .281/.369/.393 for an OPS of .762 in April. His May is .374/.452/.455 for an OPS of .902. That is a delta OPS of +.140

 

Jason Varitek put up a line of .250/.348/.533 for an OPS of .881. His May is .247/.296/.548 for an OPS of .844. His delta OPS is -.037

 

David Ortiz put up a line of .230/.290/.333 for an OPS of .623. His May is .146/.293/.244 for an OPS of .537. His delta OPS is -.086

 

JD Drew put up a line of .234/.347/.500 for an OPS of .847. His May is .265/.384/.470 for an OPS of .854. His delta OPS is +.010

 

As you can see, there are your improvements:

Dustin Pedroia

Jacoby Ellsbury

 

There are your about sames:

Jason Varitek

JD Drew

 

Then you have your dropoffs

Jason Bay

Kevin Youkilis

David Ortiz

Mike Lowell

 

What is happening to the sox is interesting. Of the guys who dropped off, Youk and Bay still have had great May's. Thing is, their April's were just superhuman and nobody has been able to pick up the slack from their dropoff back to what may be their baseline level. Lowell is playing at a level that seems consistent with his ability as is Ellsbury IMO. Pedroia is red hot. Drew is underachieving a bit, but not by much. The only significantly large improvement I could predict for the sox would be Ortiz if he is able to snap out of this. if not, then the May sox may be about what to expect, and if Varitek slows down then the May sox could be better than what they will be going forward.

 

When you look at it this way, an acquisition should be on the horizon since there is no obvious underachiever aside from Ortiz in May.

[schillingouttheks]

I'm glad you explained Bay and Youk instead of just labeling them as dropoffs. Yeah, they've dropped off, but from a superhuman level (as you noted), and the production we are continuing to get from them is still excellent.

[example1]

The only significantly large improvement I could predict for the sox would be Ortiz if he is able to snap out of this. if not, then the May sox may be about what to expect, and if Varitek slows down then the May sox could be better than what they will be going forward.

 

I would expect improvement from Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka. Beckett has looked good in his past few starts, Dice-K was out the whole month (and is shady now) and Lester is still getting K's but he's getting hit otherwise. Point being that while we can't expect much from offensive improvement, the pitching shoudl be better than it has been.

 

When you look at it this way, an acquisition should be on the horizon since there is no obvious underachiever aside from Ortiz in May.

 

The starting pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am sorry, I should have clarified that on the offensive side of the ball. The starting pitching should, theoretically improve. Problem being, I am not sure it will to enough of a degree to offset that offense.

 

Lester continues to be killed by the one bad inning, which is strange, but it is consistent. Also, he is getting creamed this yr for some reason and his walk totals are up. His BB/9IP is up by 0.3 per 9, which isnt big. But his H/9IP are at 11.2, up from 8.6. If the rule of BABIP applies, then he should improve. That being said, his propensity to be dominant for 4 innings and fail in the 5th is interesting to say the least.

 

DiceK is another enigma. His velocity is there, but he is on the other end of the spectrum. While Lester's H/9IP should drop, DiceK should give up more hits this yr. And he has, with disastrous results. DiceK was lucky as all hell to not be sporting a 4-5ERA last yr since his WHIP and BB totals were so high.