Papi

[example1]

You're off base. How many runs would have scored that wouldn't anyway? 10? 20?

 

You make a fair point that the difference based on batting order wouldn't be significant, and I think the sabermetric folks have your back there (I agree with you too). At the same time, you acknowledge that there would be a difference, however slight it may be, right? I would certainly prefer to have Jason Bay or Youkilis with their .400+ OBP at the plate to keep an inning going if we know Papi is going to continue at this level of shittiness.

 

That said, I think there is also something to not rocking the boat and having hope that he can pull out of this and become a threat once again... at least in terms of his OBP. If he "only" gets his OBP back up to around .380 then I see no problem with him batting 3rd. If he sits all year at his current production he has to go.

[TheKilo]

Even a sabermetrician needs to recognize the emotional damage it could cause - would Papi be lost forever and would the other guys take it as a sign of disrespect.

 

*I do not buy into this, but there could be some merit to it*

[castigs850]

well soon it will get to a point were you can risk the "emotional damage" because he cant get much worse. it will either upset him and he still wont be producing, or lights a fire under his ass (shoots some steriods into his ass, whatever works) and he starts hitting again

[example1]

Even a sabermetrician needs to recognize the emotional damage it could cause - would Papi be lost forever and would the other guys take it as a sign of disrespect.

 

*I do not buy into this, but there could be some merit to it*

 

If being dropped in the batting order is enough to cause Papi to be emotionally distraught and prevent him from ever recovering then he's probably a lot farther gone than anyone knows. Just sayin.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I'd also rather not be in a position where we have to wait for Ortiz to turn it around in order to be successful.

[BoSox21]

I'd also rather not be in a position where we have to wait for Ortiz to turn it around in order to be successful.

 

If they were 12-20, Ortiz wouldnt be in the 3 spot

[Dojji]

I'd also rather not be in a position where we have to wait for Ortiz to turn it around in order to be successful.

 

We're 20-12. How is that not successful?

[a700hitter]

We're 20-12. How is that not successful?

...and once Ortiz gets going, that will take the pressure off some of the other guys.

[BSN07]

We're 20-12. How is that not successful?

 

I get your point. But some of the guys on the team are extremely hot. And to think they will continue that pace through out the course of the season is not a likely scenario. And when they do eventually level off, the team undoubtedly will be less successful. Maybe this is where his concern lies.

 

 

Ortiz looks to be getting better AB's. But looking good only gets you so far. He needs to start producing.

[Dojji]

Bay and Lowell can't carry the team forever, granted, but other than Bay we really don't have that many of our guys running hot right now.

 

Not looking forward to what this team will do with Pedroia hurt. Ortiz coming around would definitely help that...

[BoSox21]

Francona said Pedroia will probably only be out Tuesday

 

And Youkilis will help carry the load when he gets back

[das11209]

Francona said Pedroia will probably only be out Tuesday

 

And Youkilis will help carry the load when he gets back

 

All these carrying the load will only work to some point. It is just buying time - not a fix.

 

My personal timeline for Ortiz is end of thsi month. If he can't do it by then - he should not be in the line-up.

[BoSox21]

All these carrying the load will only work to some point. It is just buying time - not a fix.

 

My personal timeline for Ortiz is end of thsi month. If he can't do it by then - he should not be in the line-up.

 

Youkilis, Bay and Lowell are the majority of the heart of the order and the heart of the order is expected to carry a team offensively.

[das11209]

Youkilis' date=' Bay and Lowell are the majority of the heart of the order and the heart of the order is expected to carry a team offensively.[/quote']

 

If only 3 people in the line-up is expected to carry this team ( I am sure you wanted to include Pedroia) - for the rest of the season - what are the expectations from the rest?

Specially from Papi - who has no value other than hitting?

 

The question is how long? How long do you want them to cover for Ortiz? A full season?

[ms_sox]

My personal timeline for Ortiz is end of thsi month. If he can't do it by then - he should not be in the line-up.

As long as the others are hitting hot, I'd give him to the All-Star Game. If the others all start slumping before then and Ortiz is still doing very little, then maybe a bit before that. (edit) I'm no longer thinking moving him in the lineup would truly do much. He'd still be an empty space. So leave him where he is until you plain just pull him out

 

I'm not even looking for HR's from Papi at the moment. That'd be nice of course, but as long he could get a lot of RBI's/on bases I'd be happy enough...plus his confidence would be boosted and then the HR's might start coming again.

[Dipre]

I still think Ortiz's problems are mental, really.

 

I can't help but think, after seeing the swing that produced that wall-ball double, that his biggest enemy right now is himself, since he's been laying off pitches in his power zone (middle, middle in) while trying to look for pitches he can drive the other way, and that's not how it works, is he still avoiding some inside pitches because of the wrist, has he lost confidence, or is he simply not selecting the correct pitches to drive, is he looking FB all the time?

 

And another thing i've noticed, is that he does not look comfortable up there with 2 strikes, a suspicion i had that was confirmed when ESPN showed his 2-strike BA, which was a mere ,186, and that can't continue if he is to be succesful.

[TheKilo]

That "wall ball double" is an out in every other ballpark.

[Dipre]

That "wall ball double" is an out in every other ballpark.

 

Not really, but you fail to see the point here.

 

It's pitch selection.

 

Why the insistence on going the other way when you've had at least 2 pithces in your wheelhouse every AB in the game including that one?

[TheKilo]

Not really, but you fail to see the point here.

 

 

It barely hit the top of the scoreboard.

 

As for your other points - I think he's off mechanically - his stance is too upright and he's not generating any power through the zone.

 

I think he's cheating fastball as well and can't react to the breaking stuff well enough.

 

I also think the bad 2-strike BA is bunk - I bet most hitters don't hit well with two strikes.

[Dipre]

It barely hit the top of the scoreboard.

 

As for your other points - I think he's off mechanically - his stance is too upright and he's not generating any power through the zone.

 

I think he's cheating fastball as well and can't react to the breaking stuff well enough.

 

I also think the bad 2-strike BA is bunk - I bet most hitters don't hit well with two strikes.

 

On 0-2, no, but what about 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2?

 

Also, he adjusted his stance, you need to compare his stance in mid-april to his current one, and you'll see that adjustments have been made.

 

No matter how good your swing, or how much power you can generate, it's all moot if you don't hack at pitches you can handle.

 

The cheating fastball though seems to still be a problem, i will concede that.

[TheKilo]

I would be willing to guarantee the league average for all hitters drops considerably with two strikes, regardless of the number of balls in the count.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your third sentence is EXACTLY why he's struggling. But there is a root cause to it all. His wrist/knee combo have sapped him of all bat speed. So he has to cheat to catch up to the fastball. And even though he's cheating, he still cannot catch up. BUT, that leaves him extremely vulnerable to breaking balls. Right now, he is not a major league hitter. Some players find some more bat speed by augmenting their swings or by healing, like Matsui and Posada have. Papi needs to adjust or he's done

[Spudboy]

One has to assume that the Sox coaching staff has reviewed (and continues to) tape of Papi at the plate with him. Any and all deficiencies in has swing are being addressed under this assumption. It is an on-going process. I believe that they must know what they are doing.

 

The erosion of his production could be from loss of visual acuity, loss of reflexes, poor judgment, continued bad habits, or injury (the wrist?). I don't buy into the idea that Ortiz has experienced an "inevitable decline" in hitting ability as many have observed. I have no idea what his problem is, but his presence in the line-up indicates that the Sox are convinced that the problem will soon be in the past. They know more than we do (I hope!).

 

Here's hoping that he gets it together soon. There is no quick fix.

[Dipre]

I would be willing to guarantee the league average for all hitters drops considerably with two strikes' date=' regardless of the number of balls in the count.[/quote']

 

Your guarantee would be correct.

 

However, hitting .186 in any instance that IS NOT 0-2 is the main ingredient for the recipe of failure.

[Mr Crunchy]

I guess he's cured his stance, has his hands in the right position and has tuned out all the negativity.

Look for him to hit 37 hrs from here on out, dont worry about the last 1/2 season and the incredible drop in power, hes overcome all that with his double the other night that wouldve been an out in most Babe Ruth fields..

OK no more ******** and I am sincere.

The facts:

He isnt a power threat any longer based on his epic power outage but he can be and is a good hitter who can use that wall like Mo Vaughn and Boggs did religously for success.

He is a clutch hitter and always has been, even without big HR#s he can drive in a ton of runs with the table setters he has in front of him, it isnt an accident the sox have taken off since Elsbury started getting on base, Els is a run machine.

How long will we use him in the 3 spot based on his banjo hitting, as long as hes driving in runs with 2 outs,stays out of double plays and keeps his K's down he gets that gig but the front office may want more.

Thats the question i want answered and that shall be an interesting day when Francona has him hitting behind the scorching Lugo who has outhomered Ortiz and is hitting .330 since coming back.

[Mr Crunchy]

Everything he swings at appears to be in an uppercut motion, you cant hit high pitches when youre locked into the ""fenway swing"".

his pitch selection does have some valor and based on him pressing as hard as he is,someones got to tell him not to swing at anything over his waist.

[Dipre]

Everything he swings at appears to be in an uppercut motion, you cant hit high pitches when youre locked into the ""fenway swing"".

his pitch selection does have some valor and based on him pressing as hard as he is,someones got to tell him not to swing at anything over his waist.

 

Wow, you followed up that mountain that ******** from your previous post with an insightful, wel-thought out and informative post.

 

Nice, Crunchy, nice

[rician blast]

On 0-2' date=' no, but what about 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2?[/quote']

 

Good question. Based on 2007 official stats (from http://baseballfactory.com/blog/2008/04/work-count-take-strike.html):

 

0-0 = .344

1-0 = .341

2-0 = .351

3-0 = .394

0-1 = .324

1-1 = .327

2-1 = .338

3-1 = .368

0-2 = .166

1-2 = .178

2-2 = .195

3-2 = .233

[Dipre]

Good question. Based on 2007 official stats (from http://baseballfactory.com/blog/2008/04/work-count-take-strike.html):

 

0-0 = .344

1-0 = .341

2-0 = .351

3-0 = .394

0-1 = .324

1-1 = .327

2-1 = .338

3-1 = .368

0-2 = .166

1-2 = .178

2-2 = .195

3-2 = .233

 

I made the assesment because ESPNLA had a chart on Ortiz earlier last week:

 

He was hitting under .100 in each of those instances except for 3-2.

[TedWilliams101]

I made the assesment because ESPNLA had a chart on Ortiz earlier last week:

 

He was hitting under .100 in each of those instances except for 3-2.

 

Of course he is hitting under .100 when behind in the count, his .avg is freaking .208.