Red Sox Rotation Discussion

[riverside sluggers]

This past season opponents batted .277 vs Sonnanstine. Vs Wakefield you ask? .228

[Dojji]

So' date=' you have convinced me that the Red Sox rotation is comparable to that of the Yankees and the Rays. I believe that is what I was saying. Those comparisons can be argued in either direction with no clear cut winner. That's why I am not getting all excited about the depth of the Red Sox starting pitching, because it is only arguably on par with that of our two rivals. The Red Sox do not have a clear advantage in this regard in its own division.[/quote']

 

The difference is pretty clear IMHO. The Yankees have 5 or 6 options, depending on how you count Phil Hughes. They're gamble, as usual for the Yankees, is that they don't run into major injury problems, because if they do, the potential replacements get pretty bad pretty high on the depth chart.

 

The Rays have 5 options and are probably going to be starting a placeholder in the #5 spot in their rotation not unlike we are. Again, being a small market team they have depth problems and are not going to be very competitive if they start having to plug people into a fractured rotation.

 

The advantage Boston has in this case is that we do have some bodies to throw into the breach if things go wrong with some of their frontliners. Masterson, Bowden and Buchholz all have demonstrated the ability to be useful starters at the big league level. The Yankees might be able to plug Hughes in, and the Rays may be trying to manufacture the same thing by holding Price back, but in the end we're the ones who look like we can handle the "real world scenarios" the best

[a700hitter]

And most experts like our rotation too. Does their opinion not count when you have a bone to pick? And' date=' why would you take Sonnanstine over Wakefield in a minute? Wake pitched 181 innings to a 4.13 ERA, Sonnanstine pitched 193 to a 4.38. The differences are marginal, but they do favor Wakefield. I think you are being fooled by Sonnanstine's mysterious ability to frustrate this team lately.[/quote']I never said that the experts don't like the Red Sox rotation. I was merely making the point that the Red Sox strength at starting pitching is matched by two teams in their own division. As for trading 41 year old knucklballer with a torn labrum for a 25 year old Sonnestine, yes I would do that in a minute. I don't think the Rays would do it.

[ORS]

No, they wouldn't do it, but phrased that way you draw a lot of attention to the fact that Sonnanstine has much more future value due to age. The context of your original argument had to do with just the upcoming season.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would argue that the concern over Wakefield's shoulder is valid. It did force him to miss some time last yr and since it isnt going to get any better with continued repetitive use, you have to think he's a ticking time bomb. I understand that a torn labrum in a guy who maxes out at 75 mph is not what it is to other pitchers, but eventually, it will cause him further injury and discomfort resulting in poor performance or DL time.

[a700hitter]

The difference is pretty clear IMHO. The Yankees have 5 or 6 options' date=' depending on how you count Phil Hughes. They're gamble, as usual for the Yankees, is that they don't run into major injury problems, because if they do, the potential replacements get pretty bad pretty high on the depth chart. [/quote']I disagree. IMO Wang is not a question mark. Prior to his injury, he was 38-13 over the prior two seasons. Did any pitcher have a better record for those two seasons. He didn't suffer an arm injury. he had a foot injury which is fully healed. Pettitte is every bit as good and reliable as Wakefield. Personally, I'd much rather trot Pettitte to the mound than Wakefield. Joba against our 5th slot? I'm not declaring victory there yet.

 

The Rays have 5 options and are probably going to be starting a placeholder in the #5 spot in their rotation not unlike we are. Again' date=' being a small market team they have depth problems and are not going to be very competitive if they start having to plug people into a fractured rotation.[/quote'] The Rays top 4 are very solid, young and reliable. Going 4 deep they are just as good as us. Anyone who is critical of Kazmir is smoking crack. He is 24 years old and has 4 major league seasons under his belt where he has won more than 10 games per season (3 yrs with sub.500 teams). His career ERA is 3.61. He k's more than a batter per inning. His season low in k's is 163 and his high is 239. He is a very valuable property.

 

The advantage Boston has in this case is that we do have some bodies to throw into the breach if things go wrong with some of their frontliners. Masterson' date=' Bowden and Buchholz all have the ability to be useful starters at the big league level. The Yankees might be able to plug Hughes in, and the Rays may be trying to manufacture the same thing by holding Price back, but in the end we're the ones who look like we can handle the "real world scenarios" the best[/quote']I think Hughes and Price are comparable to Masterson, Bowden and Bucholz. Quantity doesn't make up for quality. Most GM's would rather have Price.

[a700hitter]

No' date=' they wouldn't do it, but phrased that way you draw a lot of attention to the fact that Sonnanstine has much more future value due to age. The context of your original argument had to do with just the upcoming season.[/quote']Who would you hand the ball to in a big game against a team with a strong offense? I give it to Sonnestine.

[riverside sluggers]

Nevermind arguing, the Sox are set for 3rd place finish. Well the season was fun while it lasted

[a700hitter]

Nevermind arguing' date=' the Sox are set for 3rd place finish. Well the season was fun while it lasted[/quote']What a pessimist! Hide your shoe laces and belt.

[ORS]

Who would you hand the ball to in a big game against a team with a strong offense? I give it to Sonnestine.

Only because you've watched Wakefield be bad recently. Outside of that annecdotal evidence, the reasons to select one over the other are marginal.

[riverside sluggers]

What a pessimist! Hide your shoe laces and belt.

 

Its called sarcasm

[a700hitter]

Only because you've watched Wakefield be bad recently. Outside of that annecdotal evidence' date=' the reasons to select one over the other are marginal.[/quote']I have never liked seeing Wakefield on the mound in a big game-- never. I agree that Sonnestine and Wakefield's season stats are roughly comparable. Do you agree that you would rather hand the ball to Sonnestine in a big game? In light of this plus Wakefield's torn labrum, I am puzzled why you would not pull the trigger on this trade even for 1 year.

[a700hitter]

Its called sarcasm

That's what I was using in my post.

[Dojji]

I disagree. IMO Wang is not a question mark. Prior to his injury' date=' he was 38-13 over the prior two seasons. Did any pitcher have a better record for those two seasons. He didn't suffer an arm injury. he had a foot injury which is fully healed[/quote']

 

Even if you throw Wang in the "stable pither" category, which IMHO is not a slam dunk, that's still only two for NYY.

Pettitte is every bit as good and reliable as Wakefield.

who for the purposes of this discussion is considered a question mark.

Personally, I'd much rather trot Pettitte to the mound than Wakefield.

opinion noted.

Joba against our 5th slot? I'm not declaring victory there yet

I doubt very much that anyone considers Joba Chamberlain the Yankee 5th starter. He's just the guy I mentioned last.

 

The Rays top 4 are very solid, young and reliable. Going 4 deep they are just as good as us.

 

What a good thing we don't just go 4 deep...

anyone who is critical of Kazmir is smoking crack.

http://americancivilwar.com/volcano/pictures/fissure_eruption_5.jpg

He is 24 years old and has 4 major league seasons under his belt where he has won more than 10 games per season (3 yrs with sub.500 teams). His career ERA is 3.61. He k's more than a batter per inning. His season low in k's is 163 and his high is 239. He is a very valuable property.

He's also racked up a crapload of pitcher abuse points and missed a fair number of starts for the Rays last year, with elbow and forearm problems and due to his slipshod command had trouble going deep into the games he did pitch. Helath is a legitimate question mark.

 

 

I think Hughes and Price are comparable to Masterson, Bowden and Bucholz. Quantity doesn't make up for quality. Most GM's would rather have Price.

 

So what you're saying is that Masterson, Bowden and Buchholz are each 1/3 as good as Hughes, and half as good as Price. Can't help but disagree with you there. Price will be a fantastic pitcher but Buchholz is a couple developmental steps ahead of him yet, and Masterson also has more positive big league experience than Price. The only one he cleanly beats in terms of immediate MLB utility is Bowden.

 

Even your math was true our depth is better than theirs at dealing with multiple, simultaneous injuries. Which happens in the course of a season more than we want to remember.

[BSN07]

Ya anyone who doubts Kazmir's ability to be a top notch SP, is in denial. Although his injury history is not spotless.

 

I understand your point Dojji. Most teams don't pitch the same 5 guys through out the course of the season. Starters get injured, miss a start here and there, need rest, blah blah blah. And when something like that happens, the Sox have 3-4 legit options to go to. TB has 1 in Price, after that it's a big fat unknown. And the Yanks have maybe 2(currently on the team or in the system). Jacko would have you believe that the AAA rotation is full of suitable MLB replacements:wink:, but we have all seen what 90% of Yankees prospect pitchers achieve.

 

I think this is what Dojji was trying to get at. but hey I've been wrong before:D

 

 

Not sure a700, Price is a big time prospect. But I would think having Buchholz, Bowden, and Masterson is more valuable then having Price alone.

[CrespoBlows]

I'd trade Bowden and Masterson for Price.

[Keeper]

The Red Sox don't have a clear advantage over the Yankees and the Rays in terms of starting pitching, but they don't have a clear disadvantage either. It's going to be three horse race all year.

 

However, the Rays have already shot themselves in the foot by sending Price down. Smart for the future perhaps, could be disastrous for the present.

[a700hitter]

He's also racked up a crapload of pitcher abuse points and missed a fair number of starts for the Rays last year' date=' with elbow and forearm problems and due to his slipshod command had trouble going deep into the games he did pitch. Helath is a legitimate question mark.[/quote']... and Beckett's health is not also a question mark after last seasons elbow worries?

 

So what you're saying is that Masterson' date=' Bowden and Buchholz are each 1/3 as good as Hughes, and half as good as Price. Can't help but disagree with you there.[/quote']Where did I say that? If I need to fill a single rotation spot, I am saying that I would choose Price over the other 4, and I might be persuaded to pick Hughes over masterson, Bowden or Bucholz, but that is a much closer call.

[Dojji]

Ya anyone who doubts Kazmir's ability to be a top notch SP, is in denial. Although his injury history is not spotless.

 

I understand your point Dojji. Most teams don't pitch the same 5 guys through out the course of the season. Starters get injured, miss a start here and there, need rest, blah blah blah. And when something like that happens, the Sox have 3-4 legit options to go to. TB has 1 in Price, after that it's a big fat unknown. And the Yanks have maybe 2(currently on the team or in the system). Jacko would have you believe that the AAA rotation is full of suitable MLB replacements:wink:, but we have all seen what 90% of Yankees prospect pitchers achieve.

 

I think this is what Dojji was trying to get at. but hey I've been wrong before:D

 

 

Not sure a700, Price is a big time prospect. But I would think having Buchholz, Bowden, and Masterson is more valuable then having Price alone.

 

Actually you've got it right. My other point is not to panic over every minor flaw in the Red Sox rotation to the point that we start conceding things to teams who might have the same weaknesses except we just don't hear about it as much.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think its funny how the depth argument has shifted. With Masterson being slated for full time pen duty, the sox MiLB backups are 2 deep, Bowden and Buchholz. Who are the other SPs who have a realistic chance of being big league ready should the rotation fall apart this yr? Tazawa? Maybe, but he's not gonna be ready right away, and who knows how good he truly is. Fact is, the sox second line took a big hit last yr with Johnson being bad and Dustin Richardson being god awful. The next pitcher who has big league potential after Tazawa is Doubront who hasnt thrown a pitch above A ball.

 

This is where the yankees strength is once again. Our depth was tested last yr and eventually failed due to injury, but it got strengthened something fierce this yr.

1. Sabathia

2. Burnett

3. Wang

4. Pettitte

5. Chamberlain

to start, with Coke as the LR and spot starter

AAA

1. Hughes

2. Kennedy

3. Hacker

4. Kontos

5. Aceves

AA

1. Garcia

2. McAllister

3. Nova

 

All of these guys have worked up to at or near a big league IP mark for 2009. And all of them have MLB ceilings. A trade is going to have to happen this yr, because we have a ton of pitching talent, a relatively top heavy offensive farm system without much in the way of middle infield prospects, and are gonna get murdered in Rule V again next yr if we dont play it right

[a700hitter]

I understand your point Dojji. Most teams don't pitch the same 5 guys through out the course of the season. Starters get injured' date=' miss a start here and there, need rest, blah blah blah. And when something like that happens, the Sox have 3-4 legit options to go to. [/quote']Masterson, Bucholz and Bowden are legit options? Do you realize that none of them have had any sustainable success as major league starters? Bucholz was terrible last season. Bowden's stuff is not that impressive. None of them are proven as ML starters. Phil Hughes had a "can't miss" label. What happened to him? It's nice to have young arms in the organization, but let's not assume that they can come to the majors and hold down a rotation spot this season. Bucholz was given every opportunity last season and he kept spitting the bit.

[CrespoBlows]

I'd go with Bowden and Buchholz before I'd even think about going past Hughes on that obscure list of fail.

[ORS]

I have never liked seeing Wakefield on the mound in a big game-- never. I agree that Sonnestine and Wakefield's season stats are roughly comparable. Do you agree that you would rather hand the ball to Sonnestine in a big game? In light of this plus Wakefield's torn labrum' date=' I am puzzled why you would not pull the trigger on this trade even for 1 year.[/quote']

Because I think Wakefield is better when he's at his best. I realize that he's worse when he's at his worst, but I'll roll the dice for his best. If you get it, it doesn't take much offense to win the game.

[a700hitter]

Because I think Wakefield is better when he's at his best. I realize that he's worse when he's at his worst' date=' but I'll roll the dice for his best. If you get it, it doesn't take much offense to win the game.[/quote']Okay, but who do you hand the ball to for the big game?

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd go with Bowden and Buchholz before I'd even think about going past Hughes on that obscure list of fail.

 

they're only obscure because you dont do your homework :harhar:

[TheKilo]

lol Kennedy is depth

 

If he's SP depth so is Devern Hansack.

[CrespoBlows]

Said it for me.

[jacksonianmarch]

lol Kennedy is depth

 

If he's SP depth so is Devern Hansack.

 

Kennedy will be a major league starter for a long time. There, I said it. It may not be with us, but he will carve out a career as a #3-5 starter. Thats depth to me.

[Dojji]

Masterson' date=' Bucholz and Bowden are legit options? Do you realize that none of them have had any sustainable success as major league starters? [/quote']

 

Masterson made 9 major league starts, averaging just barely under 6 innings a start with a sub-4 ERA. I know you've covered your bases a little with that word "sustainable," but frankly that's the closest thing to consistent success any of these guys has shown yet. He could probably pitch right now at about the Andy Sonnanstine level if needed.

 

As vital as Masterson was in the bullpen I happen to think that the decision to send Masterson to the pen ultimately cost us a trip to the World Series. There's your missing top 5 starter.

[ORS]

Okay' date=' but who do you hand the ball to for the big game?[/quote']

Honestly, because the differences between them are stylistic in terms of how they arrive at averagish, Sonnanstine being steadily average and Wakefield being hit or miss, I'd make a decision based on the opposing pitcher.