Yankee "what would you do" thread

[jacksonianmarch]

So, I have heard a lot of s*** about our GM being terrible, useless and s*****. So its time for our resident experts to step up and point out what they would do this offseason to improve the team. Now this doesnt come without a caveat. Its obvious that Hal has placed a budget on Cashman. THIS IS NOT HIS DOING. Hence, I am going to place an arbitrary budget on this post. The Yankees cannot exceed their 2008 payroll. Hence, 85 million dollars came off the payroll. Swisher and Marte eat up 11 of that pot. So, you have 74 million for this upcoming season to throw around. And...go.

 

First Targets

#1. CC Sabathia- he has to be our #1 target and we should go above and beyond to get him. The only concern is that he may have no interest in coming to NY. Right now, a 6 yr, 23.3mil AAV contract is in his lap. The LA times is reporting today that the Angels just entered the bidding and may be offering a Johan type deal. If that is the case, I'd be willing to offer 25 mil a season for 7 yrs, something that I dont think anyone will touch. If that is not enough, then we will need to let him go. Max offer: 7yrs 175 mil with 8th yr vesting option for 25-30mil

 

#2. AJ Burnett- not as much of an absolute need, but a fine pitcher nonetheless. He is more of a risk and his offer should portray the risk that this player harbors. I would not go 5 yrs guaranteed. But I'd be willing to offer the highest AAV and offer a vesting option for yr 5 at bigger money. If he refuses that, then he'll get less money if he performs. Max offer: 4yrs 65mil with 5th yr vesting option for 18 mil

 

#3 Andy Pettitte- he'd be our cheapest and the one that would require the least commitment. That being said, he is not an ace like the 2 above and would have a questionmark about his health and about his stuff since he fell off a cliff at the end of the yr. I'd take him back on a 1-2 yr deal, but not at 16 mil. I'd offer 10 and settle with 12. Max offer 2 yrs 24 mil

 

Assuming all three of those guys sign, we'll use up 53 of the 74 mil. That is if ALL 3 sign the MAX offers. Which I find to be very unlikely. And if all 3 do not sign, I would have to create the contingency plans before I move on to the offense. But 3 pitchers need to be signed IMO.

 

Contingency plan #1= Derek Lowe- quite a contingency plan, the guy asking for a 5 yr 85 mil contract. I dont think anyone will go that high. But even at his worst, he's a #4 pitcher who will give you 200IP. There is a lot of value in that. I'd be willing to offer a similar package that Burnett got, except shorten it by one yr. I'd start out the bidding at 3 yrs 40 mil with a vesting option for yr 4 at 15 mil. Max offer: 4yrs 65mil

 

Lets say we cannot nab 3 of the above 4 pitchers, well then it gets Dicey. I thought Dempster would have been a nice change of pace, but he's off the mark. Then you end up running into the ??? class of Perez and Sheets.

 

Contingency plan #2= Ben Sheets- he is the ultimate in contingency plans. He's oft injured, but when he throws he is dynamite. Kinda like Burnett, except Sheets is injured more often and doesnt have a history in the AL. I would also be willing to offer him a Burnett Package at max. But I think Sheets might be willing to take a shorter package loaded with incentives so he can hit the market and get a better deal than get locked into a 4-5 yr deal at less than his healthy worth. So, this plan would have 2 offers. A 1 yr 10 mil contract with incentives that could take it to 20 mil in 2009. A 2 yr offer at 20 mil total with incentives that could take it to 35 million. Or a flat out 4 yr offer at 60 million dollars. That would be my max offer. Max offer: 4 yrs 60 mil

 

Contingency plan #3= Oliver Perez- if we are reaching this point of desperation, we might just be better off building the rotation from within. Perez is a lefty power arm who can be Koufax or Dalkowski depending on the day. His market is a total enigma. When he's on, he's worth Sabathia money since he's younger and in better shape. When he's off, he isnt even worth the roster spot. But the kid did step up in big spots in a big market and did pitch very well in his only post season appearances. Hence, he will end up getting some significant coin from someone willing to take a big chance. Hopefully that isnt us. But if it is? I'd start the bidding in the 3 yrs 30 mil range and be willing to take it to a Dempster deal at 4yrs 52 mil. Max offer 4yrs 52 mil

 

After these guys, there's the hope and a prayer pile.

 

Curt Schilling not much interest here, I dont think he even comes to NY

 

Koji Uehara I'd be inclined to take a look at the very least. He's a low 90s kind of guy, but a small frame and 33 yrs old right now is not a good combo.

 

Jason Jennings arm issues derailed his seasons the past 2 yrs. He'd be a minor league deal kind of guy with big incentives if he made the 25 man.

 

Paul Byrd not a bad contingency plan here. He'd probably accept a 1-2 yr deal and would be a nice stopgap. He's a #5 at most, but he gives innings and doesnt totally embarrass himself.

 

John Smoltz if only he was healthy. Smoltz might be willing to start anew in NY with an incentive laden deal. He had his surgery much earlier than Schilling and should be at the best he'll be come ST. If he isnt throwing low 90s come ST, then I'd cut him loose.

 

Brad Penny I'd have a good amount of interest here if it wasnt for his lack of work ethic and his significant shoulder and elbow issues. I think offering him a contract would work out well for us, but he might be looking for a longer term deal.

 

Mark Prior hope and a prayer MiLB deal?

 

Pedro Martinez I hope we dont go this route

 

John Garland- why is he last on the list? Cause I do NOT want him. He's gonna get a deal in the 12-14 mil range and I dont want any part of him. His WHIPs, ERA's, and BAAs are rising and he played in the AL West this past yr, home to some seriously anemic offenses.

 

So that's the rotation. I assume we'll spend 50-60 mil a yr on the rotation this offseason.

 

Now to the offense.

 

#1 Mark Teixeira- this one is obvious, but if we ink 3 top flight starters, we wont have the room under the budget to sign Tex. I expect Tex to get a 7 yr deal in the 22-25 mil range. So at this time, if we sign CC, Burnett, and Pettitte, Tex is not a possibility. Now, lets say CC slips away from us, that frees up nearly 10 mil a season when you go with contingency plan #1 instead of CC. That means Teixeira comes into play. It would also mean there would be some jockeying to be done. It would either be a deal of Matsui or Damon, and I think Damon would return more, so he'd be the one to go. And I would go all out for Tex if he was moved. Start in the 7 yr 160-170mil range and be willing to go Max offer 8yrs 200 mil on him.

 

#2 Manny Ramirez- this one is a bit more difficult to conjure up because there would be some moving parts involved and we'd also have to worry about him quitting on us and about father time finally catching up to him. I would offer a max contract of 3 yrs to Manny with a vesting option for yr 4. AAV of 20-22 million dollars at the most.

 

 

After these 2, I dont think we'd see a big improvement in our team. Adam Dunn maybe, but Swisher and Dunn are very similar and I dont think getting Dunn at the expense of Damon would make this team any better. I like Orlando Hudson, but right now, Cano has slimmed down and is finally taking his game seriously. If he comes back to his post April level of production, then he's much better than O-Dog. Abreu's ship has sailed IMO. So has Giambi's.

 

In terms of Arbitration

 

You gotta offer Bobby Abreu arbitration. If he accepts, then you can have a quality merry go round in the OF while having 3 OFers leave via FA next yr and a solid contingency should someone get hurt. If he doesnt, you get 2 draft picks in the top 40. Not too bad.

 

You also have to offer Pudge arbitration. He's a bit more tricky, though. He's a type B FA, just like Vizcaino was. He'd return one pick. But at the same time, arbitration contracts are not guaranteed. You can get out of them by cutting the player prior to opening day for a fraction of the cost. So, you offer Pudge arb and tell him the truth. If you accept, there is a very good chance we cut you or keep you as a backup. The only chance you have of keeping a full time job is if Jorge comes back and is totally unable to play catcher.

 

That would net us 3 picks in the top 40-50. Throw in the 2 we have from last yr and then kiss the ones from this yr goodbye and you have 5 total picks in the top 40-50. If we choose the best talent available and offer big contracts up front, then we could not only stock our big league team, but continue the theme of restocking the minors as well.

 

So there it is. I want CC, Burnett and Pettitte on the pitching side and if we could move Damon or Matsui, would love to have Manny. If CC doesnt sign, then Tex is a must. All of these moves are made under the premise that we have 75 or so mil to play with if you continue to assume we'll stay in the 210 mil range. We dont have to be. But I think we'll end up there anyway

[Cocos Disciples]

Ehh, if you guys get 2 starters like CC and AJ, then I doubt you get more than Tex for hitting. Just IMO.

[Dipre]

Should i answer to this thread with or without the hatred i have for the Yankees?

 

(Which, by the way, burns more intensely than a thousand burning suns)

[Gom]

Except that a more realistic expectation is that the Yankees will only spend about 60 mil. Not a bad plan, but I would switch Sheets and Pettitte. I like his stuff so much more...and Pettitte is about done.

[Paradisecity]

I think if Sheets could ever stay healthy he'd be great but if he can't stay healthy in the NL Central he sure as heck wont do it in the AL East.

[TheKilo]

Anyone remember the Nickelodeon game show "What Would You Do?"

 

That was great.

[26 to 6]

I think if Sheets could ever stay healthy he'd be great but if he can't stay healthy in the NL Central he sure as heck wont do it in the AL East.

What does the division one plays in have to do with their chance of injury? Performance is one thing, but health is something unpredictable.

[Dipre]

What does the division one plays in have to do with their chance of injury? Performance is one thing' date=' but health is something unpredictable.[/quote']

 

There's the fact that stronger offenses plus the DH would realistically make him pitch more per inning thus increasing his chance for injury?

[schillingouttheks]

Anyone remember the Nickelodeon game show "What Would You Do?"

 

That was great.

 

Yes. Quite well, actually. I remember the theme song...

 

"What what what wh-wh-what what what WHAT WHAT WHAT what what what what what what what would YOU DO?"

[Cocos Disciples]

Yes. Quite well, actually. I remember the theme song...

 

"What what what wh-wh-what what what WHAT WHAT WHAT what what what what what what what would YOU DO?"

 

Fascinating lyrics.

[example1]

CC Sabathia should be their #1 aim, but I just don't think he's worth what everyone is saying he will get paid. I don't like that he has thrown nearly 500 IP over the last two seasons, and I don't think his ERA or ERA+ warrant Santana's dollars. Santana had an ERA below 3 for 4 of the past 5 seasons, of which 4 were seasons in the AL. At age 27 CC has a career average ERA+ (over 162 games) of 121, which is the exact same as Jake Peavy--still very good of course. His WHIP is worse, and he gets fewer strikeouts than Peavy, but he is more durible, which is a pretty big deal so I give him the advantage there.

 

I actually like Peavy a whole lot, and think he should be their priority #1a. I think Sabathia and Peavy are both more complete pitchers than Josh Beckett and both could legitimately have ace status for a team that desperately needs one, as Beckett has been for Boston. Peavy's AAV will be 15.6 over the next 5 seasons, in a deal that is already signed. I don't know if he'd be willing to go to NY, but if he were I would deal a lot to get him if I were NY, and possibly leave CC alone in this market--particularly since it feels like if CC wanted to be a Yankee, he would have signed already. Maybe not... :dunno:

 

I don't expect the Yankees to make a huge push for Teixeira, but they may go after him nonetheless, especially if they lose out on CC. He's a great hitter... my opinions of him are well known around here and I need not elaborate. He would bring them back to the days of having mashers on the corners, but his contracts and A-Rods would be huge, and I think their offense isn't really the problem/can be supplemented by other, lesser players.

 

I think D-Lowe would be a decent fit in NY, a second Wang (who wouldn't want one of those!! bada bing!), and I would avoid Burnett. AJ seems like the kind of guy that lesser teams would break the bank on. His stuff is great but he's the pitching version of JD Drew IMO, and isn't quite worth what it takes to put him on your team.

 

Dunn would be an interesting option, if he can be had for the right (low) price, and DH. He's the successful Richie Sexson.

 

I would also explore a deal for Victor Martinez, potentially as a 1B or C, or DH. He brings a similar maturity and solid bat to what Abreu brought them. Although Bobby A was somewhat disappointing at times (I imagine), he was always a formidable at bat, which the Yankees need right now. If he can't be had then no big deal, but why wait? The Yankees are breaking the bank on a new stadium, A-Rod, Jeter, and they have Mariano Rivera still. They should really make a hard run at the WS over the next 2-3 years before more major retooling needs to happen.

 

Don't tear my analysis apart too much Jacko (or anyone else). I am just doing it for fun and to respond to your well-thought-out post. I haven't put much thought into the Yankees farm system, trading pieces, budget, or potential signees. It's an interesting topic.

[Paradisecity]

What does the division one plays in have to do with their chance of injury? Performance is one thing' date=' but health is something unpredictable.[/quote']

 

 

 

It has to do with trying to meet the expected workload. The lineups are much tougher, primarily in their depth. There is a designated hitter. The workload on a pitcher for 6 innings in the AL East is much greater than in the NL Central. With a greater workload, comes the increased probability of injury, particularly for injury prone players.

[Mr Crunchy]

why would you spend 200M on a guy who dont want to pitch for you,has thrown 1000ip in 4 years of pennant chases and looks like he ate david wells ....

and for the record dont own the sox

burnett is the better move in my opinion

sheets cant stay healthy and this fall,his biggest chance to win as a pro,he got shut down when it mattered most.

d lowe is a solid al 4th starter,he had been a horse in los angeles but the al east isnt confused with the nl west..hes capable of 15-20 wins with some o behind him in the bronx but hes also capable of a suck year..mentally challenged,lowe had been both the best and worst pitcher in boston but i think hes grown up a bit and i suspect he will be decent enuff in the a.l to fit a huge hole for the yanks.

they need innings guys and a #1.

lowe is innings but the #1?

i dont like sabby and hes a dl in the making.

 

happy thanksgiving everyone

[rician blast]

CC Sabathia = Kevin Brown

 

Go ahead...sign him....make my day

[jacksonianmarch]

there isnt much similarity between them at all

[Cocos Disciples]

CC Sabathia = Kevin Brown

 

Go ahead...sign him....make my day

 

In what way other than both being males on the planet Earth? Brown was 39 when the Yankees got him, Sabathia is going to be 28.

[diony]

And when Brown signed his contract he was 34 years old. Exactly 6 years more than Sabathia now. And exactly the same length of CCs future contract.

[Dipre]

And when Brown signed his contract he was 34 years old. Exactly 6 years more than Sabathia now. And exactly the same length of CCs future contract.

 

Pure speculation, but otherwise about right.

 

CC's entering his prime, Brown was entering his decline phase, other than the fact they're human and pitchers, i see no similarities whatsoever.

[Gom]

I thought I had already started a similar thread...LOL!

[rician blast]

Meaning a Yankee FA signing that I believe will not work out in the long run and which will potentially involve DL time. Nothing more. Nothing less.