Bill James' Player Projections 09

[Cocos Disciples]

Just got the Bill James Handbook 2009 and thought I would share his Sox projections:

 

Jason Varitek: .238/.334/.392, 13 HR, 52 RBI

Kevin Youkilis: .289/.386/.487, 23 HR, 102 RBI

Dustin Pedroia: .315/.376/.472, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 16 SB

Jed Lowrie: .276/.366/.417, 10 HR, 83 RBI

Mike Lowell: .277/.343/.448, 16 HR, 75 RBI

Jason Bay: .280/.376/.505, 30 HR, 102 RBI

Jacoby Ellsbury: .302/.359/.424, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 52 SB

JD Drew: .273/.395/.477, 22 HR, 79 RBI

David Ortiz: .288/.396/.570, 37 HR, 119 RBI

 

Kevin Cash: .204/.281/.320, 2 HR, 11 RBI

Jeff Bailey: .270/.354/.476, 8 HR, 28 RBI

Alex Cora: .246/.321/.325, 2 HR, 20 RBI

Julio Lugo: .257/.328/.359, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 18 SB

Coco Crisp: .279/.338/.403, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 22 SB

 

Bolded the ones I found most interesting. I'll post pitchers next.

[YanksHater213]

any pitchers?

[Cocos Disciples]

Going to post it now.

[Cocos Disciples]

Pitchers (Note that W-L are usually low in these kinds of projections since they're so hard to project):

Josh Beckett: 13-8, 3.57 ERA, 176 K/55 BB

Jon Lester: 12-11, 4.02 ERA, 168 K/88 BB

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 12-8, 3.58 ERA, 174 K/77 BB

Tim Wakefield: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 107 K/55 BB

 

Jonathan Papelbon: 5-3, 2.04 ERA, 78 K/16 BB, 41 SV

Hideki Okajima: 5-2, 3.19 ERA, 57 K/20 BB

Manny Delcarmen: 6-3, 3.44 ERA, 80 K/35 BB

Javier Lopez: 3-3, 4.14 ERA, 38 K/26 BB

 

Nothing for Buchholz or Masterson.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

I don't like the Lester one. I think he'll do better. Hopefully the Ellsbury one is close to true.

[Cocos Disciples]

Yeah the Lester one, especially the walks, is surprising.

[TheKilo]

How does he come up with these? Weighting prior years?

[Cocos Disciples]

How does he come up with these? Weighting prior years?

 

Not sure exactly, but they're often accurate and always interesting. If anyone else wants a specific player I can give you his projections.

[YanksHater213]

I think Lester will certainly see some sort of a regression in his numbers, but I certainly don't think he'll be worse than 3.80 ERA

[Dipre]

I think Lester will certainly see some sort of a regression in his numbers' date=' but I certainly don't think he'll be worse than 3.80 ERA[/quote']

 

Agreed.

 

But you gotta admit, Lester was GODLY at inducing ground balls and double plays last year, maybe that had something to do with the projections?

 

Adjustment in FB/GB ratio equals more homers and more XBH, thus higher ERA?

[Cocos Disciples]

But look at the BBs, they rise by 22. I guess he doesn't believe in Lester's ownage later in 2008.

[Dipre]

But look at the BBs' date=' they rise by 22. I guess he doesn't believe in Lester's ownage later in 2008.[/quote']

 

You're right, and 22 BB's is a pretty significant number, so i'll go ahead and say that adjusting FB/GB and adding 12 BB's gives us a 3.60+ ERA, and nothing anywhere near 4.00 .

[BoSox21]

I think James just foresees a dropoff for Lester due to the fact that he pitched some many more innings than in any of his past seasons

[Dipre]

I think James just foresees a dropoff for Lester due to the fact that he pitched some many more innings than in any of his past seasons

 

The "Year-after" effect,huh?

 

I see, it makes sense........

[Dojji]

I think James just foresees a dropoff for Lester due to the fact that he pitched some many more innings than in any of his past seasons

 

I think I have to say it's more likely that this is because of the fact that numbers can't smell cancer so they didn't know what's driving the 2 off years he had in '06 and '07.

[riverside sluggers]

I see Pedroia getting some more steal attempts, end up in the 20-25 range

 

Hardly think that Lester will lead the staff in walks (88)