John Perroto on the Sox

[Drew It Again]

John Perrotto over at Baseball Prospectus has his weekly column up... let's take a look at what he has to say:

 

Couple of notes about the Red Sox: Perrotto expects Theo Epstein to re-sign Jason Varitek to a two-year deal in the $16MM range. This seems like drastically overpaying for what Varitek has become, in my opinion, but as Perrotto points out, there's very little on the free agent market. Epstein will then look to trade for a young catcher who can become the starter in 2010 or 2011. Additionally, he'll try to move Mike Lowell to open up a spot for either Mark Teixeira or Garrett Atkins, but that won't be an easy task most likely. On a Manny-related note, Terry Francona said the last couple months of 2008 were the "most fun he's ever had" in Boston, calling them "tremendous." He didn't mention Manny specifically, but does he really have to?

[Dojji]

I do not get the infatuation with moving Mike Lowell. That move all by itself acconplishes absolutely nothing while simultaneously opening a hole in the roster to make way for a move that we will HARDLY be the only team attempting to make, whether it's Teixeira or Atkins.

 

The Red Sox will not both resign Varitek and trade for a stud young catcher. The reason is simple, and its name is Tim Wakefield. Remember what happened the last time we acquired a young catcher. Theo is going to want to make sure that whatever else happens, at least someone on the roster can handle a knuckler.

 

You've got two young catchers right now in the minors who have some experience handling a knuckleball and one of them, at least, will be catching for the Sox next year.

[BoSox21]

I really dont see any drastic changes to the lineup. I can see Theo banking on an improved Ellsbury to be a catalyst for the offense as well as a rested and improved Ortiz to be all the changes he wants

[Dojji]

The three biggest improvements to the lineup will be a return to health by Ortiz, Drew and Lowell.

 

That said, if a genuine imrovement to a genuine area of weakness is possible, it should be pursued. Right now with Boston, that's pretty much catcher and only catcher.

[BoSox21]

That said, if a genuine imrovement to a genuine area of weakness is possible, it should be pursued. Right now with Boston, that's pretty much catcher and only catcher.

 

that's a great point. I think a lot of people are gonna be upset that the Sox aren't gonna make any changes just for change's sake

[riverside sluggers]

The three biggest improvements to the lineup will be a return to health by Ortiz, Drew and Lowell.

 

That said, if a genuine imrovement to a genuine area of weakness is possible, it should be pursued. Right now with Boston, that's pretty much catcher and only catcher.

 

plus a potential full season of Lowrie, with his wrist in better shape

 

This Perotto guy sees Varitek 2 years/$16 million? If thats the asking price, Boras and Tek can go elsewhere

[Dojji]

Especially because some kind of changes are part and parcel of living the offseason dream. If you don't have new faces to look forward to next year then all you can do is calendar-watch and hold out for March

[BoSox21]

Especially because some kind of changes are part and parcel of living the offseason dream. If you don't have new faces to look forward to next year then all you can do is calendar-watch and hold out for March

 

and especially when the Yankees are gonna throw about $250-$300 million at free agents

[jacksonianmarch]

and especially when the Yankees are gonna throw about $250-$300 million at free agents

 

we'll see how much they throw into the pot. The 80 mil coming off the books is nice to see. But they have 1b, CF, 3SP slots and then anything else you can think of. All of those are big money positions, and will likely cost the yankees dearly for filling them

[Crazy Rob]

and especially when the Yankees are gonna throw about $250-$300 million at free agents

 

yea the yankees are going to be scary next year i think the redsox right now things could change are a 3rd place team in the AL east.

[Dojji]

yea the yankees are going to be scary next year i think the redsox right now things could change are a 3rd place team in the AL east.

 

I really have a hard time believing that. The Yankees have to turn that money into actual quality players and then turn those players into a team before I'm even worried.

[Crazy Rob]

I really have a hard time believing that. The Yankees have to turn that money into actual quality players and then turn those players into a team before I'm even worried.

 

it's not what they do that scares me. it's the fact that no improvements are being or can be made for this team. only way i see this team getting into the playoffs with Tampa and NYY bothering us is with D-Lowe.

 

I know it's not even free agentcy yet but we have alot of work to do for the 09 campaign to repeat 95 wins. The Rays will only get better and Yankees can't get worse can they?

[Dojji]

"Improvement" and "chasing a big name and making sweeping roster moves" is not the same thing.

 

Team won 95. That's the target. You really don't want to frig with anything when you've got a 95-win team unless you see something that obviously needs fixing.

 

6 different members of the Boston starting lineup and 3 members of the starting rotation underperformed SEVERELY last year, or performed well but had playing time shortened more than usual by injury. We'll see a lot of improvements.

 

Bullpen and lineup look to be better next year than they were this year even with no roster changes. Oother than catcher, it's hard to see a way to improve anywhere but the rotation that you wouldn't get hit with the problems of diminishing returns and worse-case-scenario downside.

[Dipre]

it's not what they do that scares me. it's the fact that no improvements are being or can be made for this team. only way i see this team getting into the playoffs with Tampa and NYY bothering us is with D-Lowe.

 

I know it's not even free agentcy yet but we have alot of work to do for the 09 campaign to repeat 95 wins. The Rays will only get better and Yankees can't get worse can they?

 

Yes, but a healthy return by Drew, Lowell, Ortiz and Beckett is likely to offset any potential moves that the yankees and Rays make, besides, if needs arise, there're always mid-season trades.

[rician blast]

The Rays will only get better

 

I'm not convinced that they will be better next year. They had a lot of guys perform at very high levels...higher than anyone expected...some may revert to their norm.

[Crazy Rob]

I'm not convinced that they will be better next year. They had a lot of guys perform at very high levels...higher than anyone expected...some may revert to their norm.

 

What about our guys over achieving?

[TheKilo]

What about our guys over achieving?

 

Who on our team can you say overacheived?

 

Youkilis? Lester?

 

Those will be offset by improvements from Lowell, Ortiz, and Beckett (assuming health)

[Crazy Rob]

Who on our team can you say overacheived?

 

Youkilis? Lester?

 

Those will be offset by improvements from Lowell, Ortiz, and Beckett (assuming health)

 

Lester always had this talent not shocked. but dice k and youlilis.

[Dipre]

Lester always had this talent not shocked. but dice k and youlilis.

 

Youkili's performance has been on a steady incline every year since he's been a regular, he doesn't surprise me.

 

Dice-K, well, that might be a whole other deal, but a healthy return by Beckett might offset any potential regression by Matsuzaka.