Three Things To Watch For In Game 6

[Gom]

Once again, from ESPN Insider. My last post of the night since you guys want to watch men play with balls, and my hope is mine is played with by a woman. Enjoy.

 

Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.

 

 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH: ALCS GAME 6

 

 

 

Shields

 

1. Shields uses changeup to silence righty bats

Rays right-hander James Shields employs one of the more diverse repertoires in the majors. He effectively uses a 90 mph fastball, a slider and a curveball, but his bread-and-butter pitch is a devastating changeup.

 

Shields has held opponents to a .201 batting average versus the change (.260 league average), with hitters chasing the pitch out of the strike zone 45 percent of the time (32 percent league average).

 

What makes Shields' changeup unique is his willingness to throw the pitch versus both left-handed and right-handed batters, with excellent results:

 

 

 

Shields' changeup

Changeup percentage Batting average against

vs. LHB 30.0 .209

vs. RHB 19.0 .184

 

 

 

 

 

Unlike most hurlers, Shields does not hesitate to throw his change to same-handed batters. Right-handed pitchers used a changeup for less than 5 percent of their pitches to right-handed hitters this year, compared with 13 percent versus lefty hitters.

 

 

Shields shut down the Red Sox lineup for 7 1/3 innings in Game 1, allowing two runs and striking out six. He did not shy away from using his change against righties, throwing the pitch 20 percent of the time to same-handed batters. Although it might go against the grain, Shields can look for continued success by sticking to his plan in Game 6. Three of Boston's righty hitters have not performed well when right-handers mix in a changeup:

 

 

 

Red Sox RHB vs. RHP changeups

Hitter Batting average

 

 

Dustin Pedroia .143

 

 

Jason Bay .167

 

 

Kevin Youkilis .238

 

 

 

 

Although right-handed Red Sox batters have struggled with righty changeups, left-handed batters David Ortiz (.340 BA) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.365) have had no such troubles.

 

 

 

Crisp

 

2. Red Sox need Crisp up top

With Ellsbury hitless in the ALCS in 14 at-bats and J.D. Drew 0-for-5 when plugged into the leadoff spot in Game 4, the Red Sox will be looking for Coco Crisp to get things going at the top of the lineup again as he did in Game 5, when he got two hits and a walk.

 

The Red Sox went 11-6 in the regular season with Crisp batting leadoff, despite his .286 on-base percentage in 80 plate appearances at the top of the order. The league average OBP is .345 for leadoff hitters. Crisp was not any more selective in the leadoff spot and did not hit for average:

 

 

 

Crisp by position in batting order

Spot Swing Pct. Walk Pct. Batting Average

Leadoff 47.3 10.0 .203

Other 46.9 8.2 .301

 

 

However, two-thirds of those plate appearances came in the first half of the season, when Crisp was slumping. Crisp hit .315 in regular-season games after the All-Star break. His offensive success was thanks to a big improvement in his ability to handle pitches at the bottom of the zone:

 

Crisp's batting average

Elevation Before All-Star break After All-Star break

Up .278 .297

Middle .329 .327

Down .177 .329

 

 

Crisp hit low pitches for power, as well. Before the break, he hit one home run off a low pitch and four off pitches above his knees. Since then, he has hit two home runs, both coming against pitches in the bottom third of the strike zone. That should make him a good candidate to start things off against Shields, who locates more than half of his pitches down.

 

3. No lead safe for fragile Rays 'pen

The Rays' bullpen dramatically improved this year with its 3.55 ERA for the regular season, but it has reverted to 2007 form in the ALCS with a 6.32 ERA. Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler have been unreliable; both have all but abandoned their breaking pitches to feed Red Sox hitters a steady diet of fastballs:

 

Rays relievers

Balfour Regular season ALCS

OPS .463 1.662

Fastball percentage 91.4 98.5

Wheeler Regular season ALCS

OPS .608 .931

Fastball percentage 68.8 88.9

 

 

Opponent slugging percentage was a combined .276 against their fastballs in the regular season. Anticipating the heater, Boston hitters are starting their bats early to slug .808 against fastballs from Balfour and Wheeler in the series.

 

Adding to both relievers' woes is their sudden inability to work ahead in the count. Balfour, who struggled to throw first-pitch strikes all year, is missing badly on 0-0 counts:

 

 

 

Balfour

Key Stat Regular Season ALCS

First-pitch strike percentage 49.6 28.6

Pct. of PA ending with pitcher ahead in count 52.7 35.7

 

 

 

 

When he locates a fastball in the zone on any count, Red Sox batters hit it on the screws. Wheeler also has fallen behind often, and his mono-pitch fastball approach has Red Sox hitters ignoring anything off-speed that's not a strike:

 

Wheeler

Key Stat Regular Season ALCS

First-pitch strike percentage 56.4 42.1

Chase percentage on non-fastballs 28.4 0.0

Pct. of PA going to 3-ball counts 18.2 36.1

 

 

The Rays' bullpen probably wouldn't mind if Shields repeats his April 27 performance, when he threw a complete game shutout versus Boston. On the other hand, the Sox chased Shields after just one inning on June 5 and tacked a couple of runs on Balfour to put that game out of reach.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Once again' date=' from ESPN Insider. My last post of the night since [b']you guys want to watch men play with balls[/b], and my hope is mine is played with by a woman. Enjoy.

 

wait a minute, I'm going to be watching the red sox game, not the yankees locker room, so wtf you talking about?

[See Red]

Once again' date=' from ESPN Insider. My last post of the night since you guys want to watch men play with balls, and my hope is mine [b']is[/b] played with by a woman. Enjoy.

 

You only have one testicle?

[NomahsHammSammich]

Listen to the 1st line of this song....

 

 

The D-Rays and Garza face a similar fate... Jon Lester and the World Champions are the train Mr. Cash is speaking of.