Three Things To Watch For In Game 5

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Taken from ESPN Insider. Enjoy.

 

Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.

 

 

THREE THINGS TO WATCH: ALCS GAME 5

 

 

 

Longoria

 

1. Longoria's power keeps surging

Evan Longoria's power ascent throughout his debut season has been remarkable, and with five home runs so far in the postseason (a rookie record), he shows no signs of stopping.

 

He started the year at Triple-A, and then took a month to adjust to big league pitching after his promotion to the Rays. From mid-May through early August, Longoria batted .304 and belted 18 home runs as he displayed the hitting ability and power that made him the third pick in the 2006 draft. A wrist injury put him on the shelf for a few weeks, but Longoria has continued to crush the ball over the past month.

 

Longoria's power trend

Period At-bats Slugging pct.

April 3-10 (Triple-A) 25 .200

April 12-May 15 105 .381

May 16-Aug. 7 272 .591

Sep. 13-Oct. 14 99 .616

 

 

In 32 postseason at-bats, he's slugging .813. While Longoria is capable of driving pitches on the outer part of the plate to the opposite field, he generates most of his power from pitches on the inner half that he pulls to the left side. In each phase of his season, the Tampa Bay third baseman has pulled an increasing proportion of middle-in pitches.

 

Longoria: Fly balls hit on middle-in pitches

Period Pct. hit to left side HR pct. of fly balls hit to left side

April 12-May 15 41.7 20.0

May 16-Aug. 7 50.7 37.1

Sep. 13-Oct. 14 64.0 56.3

 

 

Since returning from his wrist fracture, Longoria is slugging .902 with nine home runs on pitches on the inner area of the plate, compared to only a .313 slugging percentage with one home run against outside pitches. Except for Thursday's starter, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox pitchers have located almost two-thirds of pitches in Longoria's power zone during the ALCS. He's hit three bombs off pitches on the inner half, but is 0-for-3 against pitches away.

 

In sharp contrast, Dice-K has spotted 18 of his 27 pitches on the outer third versus Longoria this year, holding him to 1-for-5 with no extra-base hits.

 

2. Two things Red Sox hitters must do to turn it around

So far in this series, the Red Sox have struggled to:

 

1. Hit when behind in the count: On at-bats ending on 1-2 and 2-2 counts in this series, the Red Sox are 4-for-46 (.087 batting average). Down to their last strike, the Boston bats have evaporated:

 

Red Sox hitters in ALCS

Batting average Well-hit average Chase percentage

Not two strikes .297 .324 16.8

Two strikes .162 .147 30.7

 

 

Expect the Sox to be better in Game 5. In Game 2, Scott Kazmir struck out only two hitters despite taking 14 of them to two-strike counts, and the Red Sox have always battled the Rays lefty. In scouted plate appearances over Kazmir's career, current Boston hitters have a .626 OPS on two-strike counts against one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the game. Kazmir's career opponent OPS is .499 on two-strike counts.

 

2. Hit fastballs: During the regular season, the Red Sox were among the league leaders in every category against fastballs. So far against the Rays they have struggled to make contact:

 

Red Sox against fastballs

Batting average Miss pct. of swings

Regular season .301 12.7

ALCS .277 17.9

 

 

That will be tough to turn around, especially with Mike Lowell (.299 average against fastballs) on crutches. Boston managed only a .246 average against Kazmir's heater this year, compared to a .500 average against his off-speed pitches. However, in Game 2 of the series, four of the Red Sox hits and two of their home runs off Kazmir came against fastballs.

 

3. Rangy Rays outfielders aid fly-ball pitchers

After toiling in obscurity for years, the Rays have emerged as a powerhouse of young talent and now sit just one win away from a World Series appearance. A major reason for the club's dramatic turnaround is markedly improved defense, particularly in the outfield. After committing the second-most errors in the American League in 2007 (117), the Rays booted the ball just 90 times in 2008 (fourth-best in the AL).

 

Carl Crawford is healthy and showing plenty of range in left field; B.J. Upton has put his days as an infielder behind him and is focused in center field; the combination of Rocco Baldelli and Gabe Gross provides solid defense in right field. In the regular season, the Rays were the best by a wide margin in converting playable fly balls into outs:

 

Batting average allowed on non-home run fly balls

Rays MLB rank MLB average

.311 1 .362

 

 

Tampa Bay's rangy outfielders are made even more important by the Rays' fly-ball pitching staff, including ALCS Game 5 starter Scott Kazmir and late-inning relievers Dan Wheeler and Grant Balfour:

 

Tampa Bay's extreme fly-ball pitchers

Player Fly-ball pct.

Dan Wheeler 72.8

Grant Balfour 69.8

Scott Kazmir 68.4

 

 

With Kazmir and two high-leverage relievers generating plenty of fly balls, Tampa Bay's superior outfield defense could play a vital role in securing the team's first appearance in the Fall Classic.