Prospect Update Thread

[pedroia_the_destroyah53]

There are worse things than a 21 year old posting a .400 OBP in AA

 

Like?

[Rdsxmbnt]

Not even going to bother...

 

Anyway Kelly had a 1-2-3 inning on 9 pitches in the Futures game

[jacksonianmarch]

Lars hit a snag in his development. It happens. His power is getting stymied due to the improvement in skill of the pitchers he is facing. You have to get back to basics in order to improve. He's getting back to good contact and a good eye. The power will come.

[Dipre]

Lars hit a snag in his development. It happens. His power is getting stymied due to the improvement in skill of the pitchers he is facing. You have to get back to basics in order to improve. He's getting back to good contact and a good eye. The power will come.

 

Holy s*** you're making sense again.

[jacksonianmarch]

This happens with all good prospects who hit a snag. You find your consistent contact and patience first then the power comes. I am not breaking new ground here. I do think, though, that those who clamored for him ASAP should push his ETA back another season. If the power doesnt come in the second half, they might stash him in Portland to start 2010

[Dojji]

That's reasonable. Lars at best isn't going to come up permanently until Lowell's contract is finished, so all this does to franchise strategy is expand the window for one Aaron Bates, who really impressed me this afternoon by showing his potential at the plate and in the field and who should have additional chances to get his toe in the door throughout his age 25 and 26 seasons, which is just the right time for a developing B grade prospect to get a chance to make his case..

[CrespoBlows]

There are worse things than a 21 year old posting a .400 OBP in AA

 

This is true, hence why I was talking about the SLG%.

[TheKilo]

That's reasonable. Lars at best isn't going to come up permanently until Lowell's contract is finished' date=' so all this does to franchise strategy is expand the window for one Aaron Bates, who really impressed me this afternoon by showing his potential at the plate and in the field and who should have additional chances to get his toe in the door throughout his age 25 and 26 seasons, which is just the right time for a developing B grade prospect to get a chance to make his case..[/quote']

 

20 x all star

[Dojji]

By all means, keep dragging that old dead hyperbole up. I don't lose much by expressing faith and confidence in one of our best position player prospects, and you look like an idiot for trying to call me on it.

 

For the record, though, I came here to talk about Josh Reddick. It's a little easy to miss, but he's had a very fundamental improvement at the plate this year. While he's only hitting .270 or so he's pretty much doubled his walks output and has an Isolated Discipline of about .070 this year, which starts to be acceptable. Combine that with the fact that he's hitting for excellent power in AA at age 21 and the Red Sox have pretty obviously got something with this guy. With all his physical tools if he continues to take coaching as well as he seems to be doing this year he's going to be incredible when (not if) he comes up to replace J. D. Drew after the 2011 season.

[CrespoBlows]

Ryan Kalish is scalding the ball this month. In 54 AB's in August he has a .333/.419/.685/1.105 line.

 

Lars Anderson has a .346 OPS since the all-star break, which has spanned 74 AB's. The cold spell has brought his OPS under .700 for the year.

[Dojji]

Pretty much a lost season for Anderson. No one's going to give up on him but I hope he can at least identify the underlying issues so he can work in the offseason and come back better next year.

 

If he starts off slow next season Anthony Rizzo might just pass him on the prospect charts.

[TheKilo]

20X ALL STAR

[ORS]

Yep, don't want to block him with a scrub like Mark Teixeira.

[Dipre]

Yep' date=' don't want to block him with a scrub like Mark Teixeira.[/quote']

 

Doesn't that douche sport a .900+ OPS and is top 10 in the league in every major offensive category?

 

Lol he sucks.

[Cocos Disciples]

It just wouldn't have been a good fit.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Yep' date=' don't want to block him with a scrub like Mark Teixeira.[/quote']

 

That was never even part of the equation

[TheKilo]

That was never even part of the equation

 

Not according to Imgran

[ORS]

Doesn't that douche sport a .900+ OPS and is top 10 in the league in every major offensive category?

 

Lol he sucks.

He also leads the league in bags of oats eaten.

[Cocos Disciples]

He also leads the league in bags of oats eaten.

 

Yeah but he's not a steed.

[BoSox21]

Yeah but he's not a steed.

 

I'm storming your castle on my steed, m'lady

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1220951&format=&page=2&listingType=sox#articleFull

 

Baseball America released their top list of 10 Red Sox prospects:

Outfielder Ryan Westmoreland topped the list, with right-hander Casey Kelly second. Rounding out the top 10 were outfielder Josh Reddick, first baseman Lars Anderson, outfielder Ryan Kalish, right-hander Junichi Tazawa, outfielder Reymond Fuentes, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, shortstop Jose Iglesias and infielder Derrik Gibson.

 

Among other BA nuggets, Che-Hsuan Lin was deemed to have the best strike-zone discipline and be the best defensive outfielder; Tim Federowicz the best defensive catcher; Anderson the best power hitter; Westmoreland the best hitter for average and best athlete.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox top 10 is talented, but raw and not likely to help the big club directly in 2010. By 2012, their top 10 is going to be full of their 2009 draft. Their 09 draft is one of the most talented classes I have ever seen, although they took a TON of risk since all of their big signings were HS kids.

[neilpatrickharris]

The sox top 10 is talented' date=' but raw and not likely to help the big club directly in 2010. By 2012, their top 10 is going to be full of their 2009 draft. Their 09 draft is one of the most talented classes I have ever seen, although they took a TON of risk since all of their big signings were HS kids.[/quote']

 

Is it really a ton of risk when your average draft yields one maybe two starters who are viable in Boston?

[jacksonianmarch]

It all depends. Going the HS route could leave you coming up snake eyes frequently. But I have a feeling a few of those guys shoot up the charts. I love the Madison Younginer signing from a Sox perspective. I think he's gonna be a special arm

[The_Destroyah]

Renfroe Excites me, what does everyone else think about him?

[Dipre]

Renfroe Excites me' date=' what does everyone else think about him?[/quote']

 

I'm f***ing psyched.

 

He probably goes the opposite way from Kelly, since from what i've read, he's more polished as a hitter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Renfroe Excites me' date=' what does everyone else think about him?[/quote']

 

Very raw both ways. Sounds like he's more of a hitter though. I like him as a talent, but I think there are much better players in that list. He's a skills guy. Schwindenhammer is a much better hitter IMO and Younginer has the better arm. Renfroe reminds me a lot of Carmen Angelini from NY's perspective. And I am not saying they will be the same since Angelini fell off a cliff. But Angelini had all the tools with the potential of a plus offensive approach. And he didnt make it because there was a pretty big gap between potential and current.

[Dojji]

At what point do we set aside the question of age, and admit that Daniel Nava is starting to show some exciting potential?

 

He's now torn through AA for half a season to the tune of a 1.047 OPS. Once you get to AA or so, the "age appropriate" question starts to become less important, especially when you put up an OBP there of pretty danged near .500 in a decent sample size.

 

He's got more work to do to prove he isn't a fluke, but frankly, even given his irregular path to the majors Nava's development IMHO has reached the point that prospect watchers should be taking him seriously. And while his BABIP is high, it's been consistently high over the last two years -- and a regression to the mean wouldn't really put his offensive #'s out that much anyway (IIRC it'd cut his OPS down to ~.825 or so -- still quite respectable).

 

Fangraphs has a projection out that shows Nava at .260/.330/.365. That's within spitting distance of replacement level at least and it compares to Josh Reddick's .227/.285/.379 and Ryan Kalish's .241/.302/.363. So the statheads are starting to "like" Nava, which with his high IsoD is not that surprising.

 

I like his chances to become at least a switch-hitting cross between David Murpgy and Gabe Kapler -- a first rate "tweener" in other words -- and those are quite valuable on a championship team.

[Dipre]

At what point do we set aside the question of age, and admit that Daniel Nava is starting to show some exciting potential?

 

He's now torn through AA for half a season to the tune of a 1.047 OPS. Once you get to AA or so, the "age appropriate" question starts to become less important, especially when you put up an OBP there of pretty danged near .500 in a decent sample size.

 

He's got more work to do to prove he isn't a fluke, but frankly, even given his irregular path to the majors Nava's development IMHO has reached the point that prospect watchers should be taking him seriously. And while his BABIP is high, it's been consistently high over the last two years -- and a regression to the mean wouldn't really put his offensive #'s out that much anyway (IIRC it'd cut his OPS down to ~.825 or so -- still quite respectable).

 

Fangraphs has a projection out that shows Nava at .260/.330/.365. That's within spitting distance of replacement level at least and it compares to Josh Reddick's .227/.285/.379 and Ryan Kalish's .241/.302/.363. So the statheads are starting to "like" Nava, which with his high IsoD is not that surprising.

 

I like his chances to become at least a switch-hitting cross between David Murpgy and Gabe Kapler -- a first rate "tweener" in other words -- and those are quite valuable on a championship team.

 

Because not only is he 26 years old, but his "decent" sample size consists of 61 games.

[jacksonianmarch]

And a Gabe Kapler type is exactly what this sox team needs.