Yanks acquire Nady, Marte from Bucs for 4 prospects .

[jacksonianmarch]

Tabata is still a top talent. He's 19 in AA. I think he just needs to get fully healthy as wrist surgery can take yrs to recover from when you are a hitter.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Tabata is still a top talent. He's 19 in AA. I think he just needs to get fully healthy as wrist surgery can take yrs to recover from when you are a hitter.

 

June 20, 2008

 

Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees

Production: .241/.319/.298 at Double-A (66 G)

Stock Report: Down considerably. Beyond the poor performance is a swing that no longer looks good, and questions are being asked about his conditioning and makeup.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7690

 

June 30, 2008

 

Make no mistake about it, Tabata has been horrible this year. His slugging percentage didn’t rise above .300 until yesterday’s home run, and that extra-base hit was a rarity, with 59 of his 71 hits on the year falling for singles. Beyond that, there have been concerns about his conditioning and his attitude, and his prospect stock has begun to plummet.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7738

 

Projected peak value as a hitter, based upon his youth and his 2008 AA stats: .273/.347/.357. That's barely MLB-caliber for a right fielder, and it's fifth-best on his AA team. :thumbdown

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/pageEaspeak.php

[jacksonianmarch]

But projections on 19 yr olds in AA are rarely useful. He is the youngest guy in the league, and will likely play very well there next yr.

[Jayhawk Bill]

But projections on 19 yr olds in AA are rarely useful. He is the youngest guy in the league' date=' and will likely play very well there next yr.[/quote']

 

Tabata is still a top talent. He's 19 in AA.

 

Projections on 19 year old players in AA are usually sky-high just because few players reach AA at 19 if they're not going to be stars. Tabata is doing badly enough that both scouts and stats suggest that he's no longer a great prospect, Jacko. You've got my links for reference on both.

 

We do, however, appreciate your dissenting opinion, and we are happy to hear that you consider the fifth-best position player prospect on a AA team to be a future star.

[jacksonianmarch]

Projections on 19 year old players in AA are usually sky-high just because few players reach AA at 19 if they're not going to be stars. Tabata is doing badly enough that both scouts and stats suggest that he's no longer a great prospect, Jacko. You've got my links for reference on both.

 

We do, however, appreciate your dissenting opinion, and we are happy to hear that you consider the fifth-best position player prospect on a AA team to be a future star.

 

these numerical projections on 19 yr olds are flawed my friend. Everything must be taken into context. He is s/p wrist surgery as well as a promotion. Next yr will be the key yr. If he sucks next yr, then I'll agree with you.

[Jayhawk Bill]

my friend...I'll agree with you.*

 

Thanks!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Quoted post edited for content and to fit into the space allotted.

[jacksonianmarch]

my friend, believe that if you want. To be honest with you, I hope he proves you right.

[Jayhawk Bill]

my friend' date=' believe that if you want. To be honest with you, I hope he proves you right.[/quote']

 

The only way that this trade makes sense is if the Pirates think that they can coach Tabata back to his previous level of excellence. I understand the wrist issue, but Tabata has really sucked in 2008, and he's developed a serious attitude problem...we'll see. <_>

[jacksonianmarch]

he's their problem now

[Jayhawk Bill]

he's their problem now

 

 

Meh. Maybe a few million dollars in the right pockets and it didn't really matter--the Pirates aren't contending this decade anyway. :dunno:

[Jayhawk Bill]

FWIW, here are the Yankees' deadline deals 2005-2007:

 

July 21, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Jeff Kennard (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jose Molina.

July 31, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Wilson Betemit.

July 26, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Sal Fasano to the New York Yankees for Hector Made (minors).

July 30, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry (minors), Carlos Monastrios (minors), and Jesus Sanchez (minors).

July 31, 2006

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded Craig Wilson to the New York Yankees for Shawn Chacon.

July 2, 2005

The New York Yankees traded Paul Quantrill to the San Diego Padres for Darrell May, Tim Redding, and cash.

July 28, 2005

The Colorado Rockies traded Shawn Chacon to the New York Yankees for Ramon Ramirez and Eduardo Sierra (minors).

August 27, 2005

The Chicago Cubs traded Matt Lawton to the New York Yankees for Justin Berg (minors).

 

Is there one trade here that wasn't a giveaway to the Yankees?:dunno:

[Gom]

The Quantrill deal was a wash. Getting CJ Wilson was useless as well. Fasano wasn't much to write home about, the Betemit/Proctor deal was a non-move. The big ones were the Molina, Abreu, and first time around getting Chacon.

 

If only Cashman signed pitchers like he made deadline deals.

[Cocos Disciples]

The Quantrill deal was a wash. Getting CJ Wilson was useless as well. Fasano wasn't much to write home about, the Betemit/Proctor deal was a non-move. The big ones were the Molina, Abreu, and first time around getting Chacon.

 

If only Cashman signed pitchers like he made deadline deals.

 

You mean Craig?

[Jayhawk Bill]

The Quantrill deal was a wash. Getting CJ Wilson was useless as well. Fasano wasn't much to write home about, the Betemit/Proctor deal was a non-move. The big ones were the Molina, Abreu, and first time around getting Chacon.

 

If only Cashman signed pitchers like he made deadline deals.

 

Let's look at these deals using a quantitative metric. Let's check MLB WARP1 for the remainder of the season in question and the remainder of obligated service time remaining.

 

Yankees losses:

 

July 31, 2006

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded Craig Wilson to the New York Yankees for Shawn Chacon.

 

A steal at the moment of the deal, things changed when Chacon recovered his career-normal form and when Wilson crapped out. The August 1 NY Post reported "BOMBERS TAKE CAKE IN TRADING STAKES," with one anonymous NL GM complaining that the deal was so lopsided that it made no sense. From the NYT August 1:

 

The Yankees had asked for Wilson all season, concentrating on him for his ability to hit left-handed pitching and his versatility in the field. Only at the end did the price make sense to Cashman, who essentially traded a player with no role (Chacon) for a player who fills a need.

 

Still, the Yankees lost this one.

 

2006: -0.1 wins

Total: -4.1 wins

 

July 31, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Wilson Betemit.

 

OK, Proctor's work in late 2007 with LA made this a nominal win for the Dodgers thus far. Betemit, though, is an established young player who's had a poor small-sample size record with the Yankees thus far. If he gets the 3.8 WARP1 that PECOTA projects for him between now and free agency, Yankees win this deal big time.

 

2007: -1.0 wins

Total: -0.7 wins

 

Ties:

 

July 26, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Sal Fasano to the New York Yankees for Hector Made (minors).

 

Well, at least Fasano played in MLB. :dunno:

 

2006: 0.0 wins

Total: 0.0 wins

 

August 27, 2005

The Chicago Cubs traded Matt Lawton to the New York Yankees for Justin Berg (minors).

 

And Lawton played in MLB...although he probably shouldn't've.

 

2005: -0.1 wins

Total: -0.1 wins

 

Yankees wins:

 

July 2, 2005

The New York Yankees traded Paul Quantrill to the San Diego Padres for Darrell May, Tim Redding, and cash.

 

A breakeven trade in 2005, Cashman made a grave error by throwing away Tim Redding. Had he retained him, Redding's future value would've made this a big win--and Cashman's later idiocy doesn't negate the value of this trade.

 

2005: -0.1 wins

Total: 4.0 wins

 

July 28, 2005

The Colorado Rockies traded Shawn Chacon to the New York Yankees for Ramon Ramirez and Eduardo Sierra (minors).

 

One of the two pitching acquisitions that brought the Yankees back to the top of the AL East in 2005. A long-term breakeven, everybody considers this trade a Yankees win because of its 2005 impact, even though Ramon Ramirez (career ERA 3.90 as a middle reliever) was the sole minor leaguer given up by the Yankees in a deadline trade 2005-2007 to have any long-term success in MLB.

 

2005: 3.7 wins

Total: -0.3 wins

 

July 21, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Jeff Kennard (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jose Molina.

 

Kennard has done nothing. Molina is the Yankees' starting catcher.

 

2007: 1.1 wins

Total: 2.8 wins

 

July 30, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry (minors), Carlos Monastrios (minors), and Jesus Sanchez (minors).

 

The amazing case of a team winning a trade even when one of the two players it acquired was lost in a tragic accident months later.

 

2006: 4.1 wins

Total: 10.5 wins

 

***

 

Most deadline deals are long-term losses for contending ballclubs. In eight deals 2005-2007, the Yankees have come out ahead by over 12 wins long term and by over six wins in the years of the deals.

 

Looking at the deals in detail, one of the two losses was considered so lopsided for the Yankees at the moment it was made that collusion was speculated, and the other involves an active player for the Yankees whose future value will reverse the loss. Both ties involved the Yankees getting an MLB player to at least fill a role in return for a worthless MiLB prospect who would never reach MLB. Four times--half of the time that it's made a deadline deal--the Yankees have been outright winners, earning a remarkable 17 wins in just those four trades.

 

And now there's another remarkable giveaway of talent to the Yankees in 2008.

 

Coincidence? There's enough bizarre past history here that I wonder.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it also helps that we got the prize of the Abreu deal back in FA.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think it also helps that we got the prize of the Abreu deal back in FA.

 

 

You do realize that Abreu was under contract through 2007 with a club option--not a player option--for 2008, don't you? He hasn't hit free agency since his trade to the Yankees.

[riverside sluggers]

FWIW, here are the Yankees' deadline deals 2005-2007:

 

July 21, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Jeff Kennard (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jose Molina.

July 31, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Wilson Betemit.

July 26, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Sal Fasano to the New York Yankees for Hector Made (minors).

July 30, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry (minors), Carlos Monastrios (minors), and Jesus Sanchez (minors).

July 31, 2006

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded Craig Wilson to the New York Yankees for Shawn Chacon.

July 2, 2005

The New York Yankees traded Paul Quantrill to the San Diego Padres for Darrell May, Tim Redding, and cash.

July 28, 2005

The Colorado Rockies traded Shawn Chacon to the New York Yankees for Ramon Ramirez and Eduardo Sierra (minors).

August 27, 2005

The Chicago Cubs traded Matt Lawton to the New York Yankees for Justin Berg (minors).

 

Is there one trade here that wasn't a giveaway to the Yankees?:dunno:

 

And what has been the deadline deals for the Sox since 2005

[Jayhawk Bill]

And what has been the deadline deals for the Sox since 2005

 

Worse.

 

2007:

 

Joel Pineiro to the Cardinals for a PTBNL not yet named, AFAIK; Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre for Eric Gagne; Wily Mo Pena for Chris Carter

 

2006:

 

Luis Mendoza for Brian Corey; cash for Javy Lopez; Mike Burns for Tim Bausher; David Wells for George Kottaras

 

2005:

 

Ramon Vazquez for Alex Cora; Jay Payton for Chad Bradford; Chip Ambres and Juan Cedeno for Tony Graffanino; Scott Cassidy for Adam Hyzdu; Kenny Perez and Kyle Bono for Jose Cruz Jr; Olivio Astacio for Mike Remlinger

 

Several of the players traded away had considerable future success; only Alex Cora, Chad Bradford and Tony Graffanino had any significant positive work for Boston, and the catastrophically bad Gagne trade by itself erases any net value whatsoever from these three years of deals.

 

But deadline deals are never good long-term for contending teams...except for, for some reason, the Yankees. :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

Take a look at what Ramon Vazquez is doing. He's hitting .309 with a .859OPS as the Rangers starting 3b

[riverside sluggers]

To expect Vazquez to keep the starting 3rd base job, well i just dont see it lasting. He's a 32 year old journeyman having a career year.

[Beckett95]

the sox havn't made a good deal in season since they traded nomar

[TheKilo]

Real good deal for the Yanks.

[Gom]

Hey JHB, can you do that same thing about wins for the Red Sox deals? Don't know where you get your info, but good s***, dude.

[Soxfan1]

Worse.

 

2007:

 

Joel Pineiro to the Cardinals for a PTBNL not yet named, AFAIK; Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre for Eric Gagne; Wily Mo Pena for Chris Carter

 

2006:

 

Luis Mendoza for Brian Corey; cash for Javy Lopez; Mike Burns for Tim Bausher; David Wells for George Kottaras

 

2005:

 

Ramon Vazquez for Alex Cora; Jay Payton for Chad Bradford; Chip Ambres and Juan Cedeno for Tony Graffanino; Scott Cassidy for Adam Hyzdu; Kenny Perez and Kyle Bono for Jose Cruz Jr; Olivio Astacio for Mike Remlinger

 

Several of the players traded away had considerable future success; only Alex Cora, Chad Bradford and Tony Graffanino had any significant positive work for Boston, and the catastrophically bad Gagne trade by itself erases any net value whatsoever from these three years of deals.

 

But deadline deals are never good long-term for contending teams...except for, for some reason, the Yankees. :dunno:

 

[yankees228]

FWIW, here are the Yankees' deadline deals 2005-2007:

 

July 21, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Jeff Kennard (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jose Molina.

July 31, 2007

The New York Yankees traded Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Wilson Betemit.

July 26, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Sal Fasano to the New York Yankees for Hector Made (minors).

July 30, 2006

The Philadelphia Phillies traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry (minors), Carlos Monastrios (minors), and Jesus Sanchez (minors).

July 31, 2006

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded Craig Wilson to the New York Yankees for Shawn Chacon.

July 2, 2005

The New York Yankees traded Paul Quantrill to the San Diego Padres for Darrell May, Tim Redding, and cash.

July 28, 2005

The Colorado Rockies traded Shawn Chacon to the New York Yankees for Ramon Ramirez and Eduardo Sierra (minors).

August 27, 2005

The Chicago Cubs traded Matt Lawton to the New York Yankees for Justin Berg (minors).

 

Is there one trade here that wasn't a giveaway to the Yankees?:dunno:

 

I don't really look at all of those as giveaways. I actually look at many of them, as someone else said, as washes. I don't believe in any conspiracies to help the Yankees, and part of that is because I'm a Yankee fan who obviously doesn't want to believe in that.

 

I'm curious JHB, I know you've stated the possibility of a conspiracy...how exactly do you think one would work in this case?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I don't really look at all of those as giveaways. I actually look at many of them' date=' as someone else said, as washes.[/quote']

 

The wins totals are from Baseball Prospectus Davenport Translations. Two were "losses," but each one of those two trades was a potential big win (and one still is). Two were breakevens that filled a need for the Yankees. Four were clear wins.

 

I don't believe in any conspiracies to help the Yankees, and part of that is because I'm a Yankee fan who obviously doesn't want to believe in that.

 

Cool. I respect your forthright honesty.

 

I also disagree.

 

I'm curious JHB, I know you've stated the possibility of a conspiracy...how exactly do you think one would work in this case?

 

Quote where I wrote the word "conspiracy."

 

OK...options for payback include cash or other services of value directed to Pirates ownership/management from either the Yankees or MLB through untraceable sources. The opportunity to make profitable straddle trades on the NYSE is a first possibility...promises of future payback of talent in a contending year is another...there are countless others, including motivated self-interest to keep revenue sharing alive and well by keeping the New York media market fully engaged.

[yankees228]

My fault about the word "conspiracy". That was my only my word because that's just what I felt you were kind of implying.

 

All of those are interesting possibilities, and unfortunate ones no matter who you are a fan of to say the least.

 

I know it's only one example, but didn't the Diamondbacks take considerably less from the Red Sox for Schilling than what the Yankees were offering...or am I misremembering?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I know it's only one example' date=' but didn't the Diamondbacks take considerably less from the Red Sox for Schilling than what the Yankees were offering...or am I misremembering?[/quote']

 

Dunno. I'm old and senile, and historical trade rumors are hard to Google. :dunno:

 

Of course, trade rumors are also hard to ascertain by the media, and Casey Fossum was then highly regarded, and Brandon Lyon has had a pretty good career for comparatively little salary.

[yankees228]

Dunno. I'm old and senile, and historical trade rumors are hard to Google. :dunno:

 

Of course, trade rumors are also hard to ascertain by the media, and Casey Fossum was then highly regarded, and Brandon Lyon has had a pretty good career for comparatively little salary.

 

According to this article...

 

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DEFDF1438F930A25752C1A9659C8B63

 

...Arizona asked for Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano. Seems like a lot to me. Obviously this could be overblown considering it's just a rumor, but if true this is certainly an example of the Yankees really getting the raw end of a deal (one that involves players more valuable than any of those discussed in the other trades you mentioned).

[Jayhawk Bill]

According to this article...

 

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DEFDF1438F930A25752C1A9659C8B63

 

...Arizona asked for Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano. Seems like a lot to me. Obviously this could be overblown considering it's just a rumor, but if true this is certainly an example of the Yankees really getting the raw end of a deal (one that involves players more valuable than any of those discussed in the other trades you mentioned).

 

Great research!

 

Two points:

 

1) The proposed trade wasn't just Soriano + Johnson for Schilling:

 

The Diamondbacks have asked for second baseman Alfonso Soriano and first baseman Nick Johnson for Schilling and second baseman Junior Spivey. Arizona has also mentioned the possibility of adding lesser players to the deal to try to persuade the Yankees to trade their two premier young players for an All-Star pitcher who turns 37 on Friday and an infielder who batted .255 this season.

 

Junior Spivey was an All Star who received MVP votes in 2002. "Lesser" AAA players included Lyle Overbay and Brandon Webb. The proposal wasn't necessarily as lopsided as the two-for-one you suggest would appear.

 

2) I've actually got nothing against Yankees trades until 2005...:dunno: