Mike Mussina's Mysterious Surge at Age 39

[bobby jr]

From looking at numerous pitchers on baseballreference.com, I see very few pitchers in the history of MLB who show such an improvement between age 38 and 39.

 

Mike Mussina's WHIP last year was 1.467, this year it is 1.212.

His ERA has dropped from 5.15 to 3.26.

 

What is going on here? I'm not sure that this is entirely due to being "injury free". Gaining velocity and lowering his ERA by two runs a game at age 39?

[schillingouttheks]

... he's finally learned how to pitch with what his body allows for? I'm not sure about this velocity increase that you're talking about. From what I've seen, he's using his 2-seamer a lot more because is fastball needs some movement to be effective.

 

STEROIDS OH NOEZ!

[ORS]

He's not throwing any harder, but to my eye, the plate has gotten wider for him this year.

[bobby jr]

Last year I kept reading he just didn't have the velocity , I believe his fastball was in the low 80's. This year it is in the upper 80's.

 

But beyond that it is hard for me to believe what I am seeing considering mussina looked completly washed up last year in late July and August and the general thought in MLB was that Mussina was finished. He even got taken out of the rotation by Torre, quite an embarrasment for him.

[bobby jr]

He's not throwing any harder' date=' but to my eye, the plate has gotten wider for him this year.[/quote']

Help from the umps?

[ARod2212]

He's taken miles off his breaking pitches, and it's kept hitters off balance. Last year he threw everything in the same range of 80-86 MPH. He's slowed his breaking and offspeed stuff to 68-75 MPH, making his pitches more effective.

 

His location has been good, he's been healthy, and he's kept hitters guessing. Not really rocket science, he's put it all together.

[Jayhawk Bill]

From looking at numerous pitchers on baseballreference.com, I see very few pitchers in the history of MLB who show such an improvement between age 38 and 39.

 

Mike Mussina's WHIP last year was 1.467, this year it is 1.212.

His ERA has dropped from 5.15 to 3.26.

 

What is going on here? I'm not sure that this is entirely due to being "injury free". Gaining velocity and lowering his ERA by two runs a game at age 39?

 

Mussina's upside is scary high...Cy Young-contending high. Pitchers similar to Mussina have rebounded from two "disappointing" (but still pretty good) MLB seasons to have excellent years at his age.

 

Mussina's upside is higher than Colon's.

 

Check the trackback link for much more discussion. I called this possibility (not as a certainty, but well-supported nonetheless) in March.

[bobby jr]

Not sure how to get to that link, but from what I have seen in my many years of watching and reading about the game, throughout major league history a very low percentage of pitchers have even been still pitching at Mussina's age, and even fewer have actually shown a vast improvement as they are closing in on 40. (Clemens is one who did, but his records are highly suspect, considering the evidence that he juiced. The pre steroid era was different).

 

Kudos for calling Mussina's resurgance in March, I could have sworn he was finished. (And I wish he were, I have not forgotten how he left the O's to go to the Yankees of all teams)

[Jayhawk Bill]

Not sure how to get to that link, but from what I have seen in my many years of watching and reading about the game, throughout major league history a very low percentage of pitchers have even been still pitching at Mussina's age, and even fewer have actually shown a vast improvement as they are closing in on 40. (Clemens is one who did, but his records are highly suspect, considering the evidence that he juiced. The pre steroid era was different).

 

Kudos for calling Mussina's resurgance in March, I could have sworn he was finished. (And I wish he were, I have not forgotten how he left the O's to go to the Yankees of all teams)

 

Click that little bluish arrowhead within the quoted element to trackback.

 

Here's another post from that thread, listing a few older pitchers who've rebounded:

 

Well, let's check to see if Mike Mussina ever contended for a Cy Young Award seriously enough to get any votes. Yeah, he did, a couple of years:

 

1992-AL-4

1994-AL-4

1995-AL-5

1996-AL-5

1997-AL-6

1999-AL-2

2000-AL-6

2001-AL-5

 

Given that I said "Mussina's upside is scary high...Cy Young-contending high," not "Cy Young-winning high," I'm only suggesting that Mussina might be as good at age 39 as he's already been eight times in his MLB career...not better than he was at age 28.

 

But, since you mention it, at age 28 he went 15-8. At age 37 he went 15-7. Are you suggesting that a pitcher can never do better at age 39 than he did at age 37?

 

I've always suspected that Spud Chandler was juicing. And Jamie Moyer. And Jim Perry. And Warren Spahn (especially Warren Spahn). And Bert Blyleven. And Preacher Roe. And Lefty Grove. And Steve Carlton. And maybe Roger Clemens, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, David Cone and Nolan Ryan. And certainly Gaylord Perry--heck, you could see the tobacco juice stains he left on the ball!

 

Those are all pitchers who had very good seasons at age 38. There are more: I think that I've made my point.

 

But Mike Mussina is going to be 39--let's look at age 39, and let's be a little more critical--let's look for comeback seasons from an ERA+ around or under 100.

 

Early Wynn went from 14-16 at age 38 to 22-10 at age 39, dropping his ERA by almost a run...Rick Reuschel's bad year was at age 37, not age 38, but he came back from a 9-16 record to a 19-11 record at age 39...David Wells went from 5-7 at age 38 to 19-7 at age 39...Kenny Rogers went from 13-8 to 18-9 at age 39...Sal Maglie went from 9-7 to 13-5, with an ERA+ of 140 and 191 IP at age 39...Fergie Jenkins went from 5-8 to 14-15, with an ERA+ of 118 and 217 IP, for the hapless 1982 Cubs, at age 39...Don Sutton went from 8-13 to 14-12 at age 39...and let's not forget that Connie Marrero improved in ERA+ at ages 39, 40 and 41, probably hitting his peak at age 40.

 

Gaylord Perry, of course, won a Cy Young at age 39, but he pitched well at age 38, too, and we all now know that he juiced.

 

Curt Schilling went from 8-8 to 15-7 at age 39.

 

Mussina's 90th percentile PECOTA is a 3.60 ERA in 174 IP. That would probably put him in the top 20 pitchers in the AL. There's roughly a 10% chance that Mussina would do even better, if you follow PECOTA. When one does better than being in the top 20, it's not a far reach to one's being a Cy Young candidate...particularly in New York, particularly with the Yankees batting order scoring your runs for you.

 

But your challenge regarded my estimation of upside for Mussina. I've given you several cases of pitchers who CAME BACK at age 39. There are more who simply did well: these are all pitchers who had been mediocre to bad, but who had regained their greatness. My list isn't inclusive: there are probably more.

 

I'm serious: Mike Mussina's UPSIDE is Cy Young-contending caliber. It's just that I don't see Mussina approaching his upside...hope that I'm right on that account.

[ORS]

Thanks for digging that thread up, JHB. Jacko's comments about how awful Wake would be with Cash provide some good late morning humor and add fodder to his deep file idiotic posts. Well done.

[VA Sox Fan]

Thanks for digging that thread up' date=' JHB. Jacko's comments about how awful Wake would be with Cash provide some good late morning humor and add fodder to his deep file idiotic posts. Well done.[/quote']

 

 

Jacko continues with his horrible predictions!

[Mr Crunchy]

ive always liked this guy and despite not bringing home the gold in the bronx hes been pretty effective,well consistant anyways...check out the competetion,he seems to have easier starts than f***in clemens did,ny has been on fire but their competetion is about to go up a few notches in the next few weeks...we shall see if these guys are for real or are pretending.

personally i respect their vets enuff to worry about them,all blustery ******** aside.

i just think theyre run and surge is due to primarily to a funky i/league schedule as well as some guys like mussina ,farnsworth and other arms really pitching within themselves.

ok

thats about as nice as i'm prepared to be till the end of october

im not sure if the anything goes section is up and running but i'm playing dumb.

faaaaaaaak ny

faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaakem

season starts tonight

the green house of pain will be electric and i predict melky cabrerra will have ball bearing marks on his arse from some fired up bleacher fans who have seen about enuff of this resurgence...

[BudLight]

A three way tie for the AL East top spot by the end of the weekend and Moose won't even have to throw a pitch

[Jayhawk Bill]

A three way tie for the AL East top spot by the end of the weekend and Moose won't even have to throw a pitch

 

"Three way tie?" Does that mean a tie three separate times this weekend, after both Boston and Tampa Bay win each of their games? I can't figure out what else you might mean... :dunno:

[Mr Crunchy]

bb

if my balls were on your chin....never mind

i sort of like you

[BudLight]

bb

if my balls were on your chin....never mind

i sort of like you

 

If a middle aged, balding, somewhat fat guy living in the Midwest is your fantasy --- you really need some help dude!!

[Mr Crunchy]

I do need help,ive never argued this point,not remotely

my last confession was in early 90s and i had the priest who married my parents,christened my kids,buried 3 generations of my family members and actually liked me..in tears...

the problem was he would hear my confessions while walking,he liked cold cuts(mortadella) and would hang around oliva's market at around 11am,if i wanted a quick confession i could catch him walking back to the rectory...when people saw him doubled over in tears they asked Fr Charles whats the matter are you ok??....and he would point to me...""Do ya know what this lad did....He He HE HEE ...AHH WHAT THE CHRIST"".Sean Patrick go to the church and pray till sunset"" Fr Egan when will i know its sunset""...HOPEFULLY WHEN YOUR PAGAN KNEES STOP BLEEDING NOW GOOOOOOOOOW PRAAAY TILL YOU KNOW YOURE DONE GAADAMMIT""

there isnt 1 person on this esteemed panel that would argue with you

there isnt 1 person in my family that would question your veracity

that said

the panel and my family do hate the yankees with the same zest and vigor we save for pedophiles.

 

as far as the fat bald middled age thing goes

dont hate us for being beautiful

[VA Sox Fan]

the panel and my family do hate the yankees with the same zest and vigor we save for pedophiles.

 

LMAO!! :lol:

 

Regardless of your issues Seano, you know I love ya! For those of you haven't had the pleasure, my friend and bro is one of the nicest and most generous people I've ever met. And that's the truth regardless of his incoherant ramblings out here.

[Mr Crunchy]

you'd say anything to get me in the sack lyndie...this is why i admire you sooo much.

 

god love you and keep you close to his heart

[VA Sox Fan]

you'd say anything to get me in the sack lyndie...this is why i admire you sooo much.

 

god love you and keep you close to his heart

 

Yep, that's me, the 'ho!

 

And your last line? Right back at ya!!

 

Oh, and my attempt to stay "on topic"...cannot stand Mike "The Mousse" Mussina.

[Mr Crunchy]

well the sisters from the Covenant of the Swollen Testicles in Wellesley missed you when you applied

i can only imagine the loss their Mother Superior felt when you went the other way

[VA Sox Fan]

well the sisters from the Covenant of the Swollen Testicles in Wellesley missed you when you applied

i can only imagine the loss their Mother Superior felt when you went the other way

 

 

Keep it up you Liberal Tool Bag

[a700hitter]

A three way tie for the AL East top spot by the end of the weekend and Moose won't even have to throw a pitch

We kill Moose.

[yeszir]

Back on topic! Back on topic! Please.