Varitek's struggles

[BSN07]

Youkilis and Lowell ...average?

 

I ment they are peforming with in the realm of there career avg. give or take a little.

 

 

 

 

 

I see three things the Sox could do with the C spot.

 

 

1. Stand pat, sign Tek to a 2 yr deal, something around there.

 

2. Go after a young prospect with little MLB time( Salty top choice obviously, but there must be others)

 

3. This is my out of RF theory, wait until the off season, let Minny try and sign Mauer long term, if they can't hash out a deal, the Sox swoop in with a prospect rich deal and get Mauer and sign him to a 5 yr deal.

 

Let me be clear, I know this is pure speculation on my behalf for your viewing pleasure. but what it it boils down too is, the Sox either keep Tek, get a young prospect, or get a MLB experienced C.

[das11209]

I think it is now quite clear that Tek's great game calling ability is a myth like Lochness monster. His defense is no longer great - he is allowing passed balls often.

 

And we all know about his offense.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think it is now quite clear that Tek's great game calling ability is a myth like Lochness monster. His defense is no longer great - he is allowing passed balls often.

 

And we all know about his offense.

 

A little while back I wrote this:

 

How much are Jason Varitek's intangibles worth?

 

If Tek helps out pitchers with either defense or game-calling, it should show up in the pitcher's stats. What we need is something like an OPS+ allowed, normalized to the pitcher's own normal standard of performance.

 

We can find this. Baseball Reference offers a tOPS+, which is an OPS+ allowed, by catcher, for each pitcher, normalized to that pitcher's OPS allowed with all catchers for the period in question.

 

For every 2008 Boston Red Sox pitcher, here is their career tOPS+ with Tek catching them. Remember, lower is better:

 

[table]Pitcher's Name | Varitek OPS+ | Age

Buchholz | 110 | 23

Masterson | 102 | 23

Hansen | 90 | 24

Lester | 88 | 24

Pauley | 51 | 25

Delcarmen | 93 | 26

Aardsma | 55 | 26

Papelbon | 98 | 27

Smith | 100 | 27

Matsuzaka | 98 | 27

Beckett | 99 | 28

Lopez | 81 | 30

Snyder | 98 | 30

Okajima | 89 | 32

Corey | 155 | 34

Tavarez | 106 | 35

Colon | 110 | 35

Wakefield | 109 | 41

Timlin | 110 | 42[/table]

 

OK, the career OPS+ for pitchers over 33 will probably be better with catchers who caught them in their 20's than with catchers who caught them in their 30's. Take away those guys...and take away Chris Smith, who has never thrown to any catcher except Jason Varitek...we're left with this:

 

[table]Pitcher's Name | Varitek OPS+ | Age

Buchholz | 110 | 23

Masterson | 102 | 23

Hansen | 90 | 24

Lester | 88 | 24

Pauley | 51 | 25

Delcarmen | 93 | 26

Aardsma | 55 | 26

Papelbon | 98 | 27

Matsuzaka | 98 | 27

Beckett | 99 | 28

Lopez | 81 | 30

Snyder | 98 | 30

Okajima | 89 | 32[/table]

 

With these pitchers, Varitek has a median career tOPS+ of 93, suggesting a median 3.5% reduction in OBP and SLG with Tek catching...and very, very roughly suggesting a possible 7% reduction in these pitchers' ERAs...which might be an effect worth somewhere in the range of 20 runs so far this season.

 

Caveats:

 

1) While the work through the median tOPS+ determination is carefully described and can be replicated, the work in the last paragraph above, changing a median tOPS+ to team runs saved, involves many unstated assumptions in the guesstimation process.

 

2) Remember how we knocked out pitchers over 33 because their careers were already in decline, throwing our metric off? If you look at Tek's single season tOPS+ with these pitchers, it doesn't seem that he necessarily helps them at all with his game calling. It could be that Tek helps younger pitchers far more than he helps veteran pitchers.

 

3) Sabermetricians have searched for catchers' effect on batters with great diligence and they've never found it. This analysis isn't close to statistical significance in its size and scope.

 

Observations:

 

1) Yeah, this isn't statistically significant, but it sure is suggestive of a positive effect.

 

2) Twenty runs is roughly the difference in value as a hitter between Jason Varitek and the top couple of catchers in the AL. Adding 20 RC to Tek's 2008 total, and adding zero to all other catchers (which is, on average, correct), would rank Tek second in the AL behind Joe Mauer.

 

3) Jason Varitek rocks handling weird, young pitchers. Look at the tOPS+ for Pauley, Aardsma and Lopez, and keep in mind that nobody dreamed that Chris Smith could thrive in MLB. Okajima's success might also be credited in large measure to Tek.

 

4) Some interesting stuff I learned doing this research: Mike Timlin has thrown more to Jason Varitek than to any two other MLB catchers combined, and Julian Tavarez has thrown more pitches to Tek than to any other MLB catcher.

 

***

 

In summary, while this isn't PROOF that Jason Varitek makes a big difference with his ability to call games, it sure is indicative of a positive effect that fits with Tek's reputation with MLB players, managers, and media professionals. I call benefit of the doubt for Tek: before I decide that Boston should get rid of him, I'm adding 40-odd RC per year to his batting stats before saying that he's no longer starting caliber.

 

You indicate that Tek's great game-calling is a myth--how do you respond to this? :dunno:

[BSN07]

Jay Hawk takes the wind from yet another posters sail.......

[das11209]

A little while back I wrote this:

 

 

 

You indicate that Tek's great game-calling is a myth--how do you respond to this? :dunno:

 

I can't respond to you with stats - you have a PHD on that.

 

Just let me ask you this though - do you see any decline in your matrix as per as his gamecalling with his offensive struggles? Looks to me that he has been making wrong calls often this year that he has not done in the past.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I can't respond to you with stats - you have a PHD on that.

 

Just let me ask you this though - do you see any decline in your matrix as per as his gamecalling with his offensive struggles? Looks to me that he has been making wrong calls often this year that he has not done in the past.

 

The matrix?

 

Jayhawk Bill in dark trench coat and sunglasses, wielding a calculator and an iPhone, bending over impossibly far backwards as a torrent of fastballs fly by in slow motion

 

But no--our pitching has been doing reasonably well, on the whole, through June. The staff ERA has declined in each month, including, thus far, July.

[TheKilo]

He can't hit a f***ing flyball? For $10 million?

[stocker323]

that would be all star reserve jason varitek...

[CrespoBlows]

Hopefully, it boosts his trade value.

[craigclifford]

as much as i love tek the simple fact of the matter is he aint gettin it done,he mite be great at calling games but his offense is gone,at the plate he looks like he wants to just go bak 2 the dugout!i watched the sox-yanks game last night and another past ball,he tried to get a-rod stealing and the throw was slow and miles out,and drew mad a good throw to home to get giambi and it was an easy tag but tek was on wrong side of plate and that fat douche was safe,bottom of 9th bases loaded against rivera and nobody out he could'nt even get a sac fly to tie the game and thats just 1 game,is there any prospects in aaa or aa,there just has to be

[Jayhawk Bill]

Hopefully' date=' it boosts his trade value.[/quote']

 

I really don't see Jason Varitek ever being traded away from the Red Sox. :dunno:

[VA Sox Fan]

I really don't see Jason Varitek ever being traded away from the Red Sox. :dunno:

 

Most people don't. Won't happen.

[CrespoBlows]

I really don't see Jason Varitek ever being traded away from the Red Sox. :dunno:

 

Tongue-in-cheek.

[Optimist]

that would be all star reserve jason varitek...

 

I guess the fans aren't the only ones who can get it wrong.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I guess the fans aren't the only ones who can get it wrong.

 

Wrong?

 

Look, Tek was leading the early voting. The fans want to see him. Furthermore, Tek, just like Posada or Pudge Rodriguez, is one of the premiere catchers of his generation.

 

I don't think that the All Star Game should be the "Who had the best April and May Game." It should be a chance to see the men who will attract HOF votes five years after they retire, players who define a generation of baseball. It should be guys like Derek Jeter, the definition of the Yankees for a decade and a sure HOFer a decade from now. It should be JD Drew, a great player who won't make the HOF but who's known as an All Star player in his great years. It should be, and was, Tony Conigliaro, a guy whose potential was never fulfilled but who is loved and remembered by Red Sox fans who saw him play. It should be Mariano Rivera, a player who may someday be remembered as the greatest ever at his position. It should be Alex Rodriguez, a player who may someday be remembered as the greatest ever to play the game at any position.

 

Jason Varitek is the Captain of the Boston Red Sox, the leader of the men who broke the curse. Somewhere in the range of what I wrote about Jeter, Drew and Tony C fits Jason Varitek. He won't be in the HOF unless he plays another half-decade at near his peak level and wins a couple more World Series, and that sure doesn't look likely. He does define a great team; at his best, he has been a great player; when he is gone, he will be loved and remembered.

 

Jason Varitek belongs in the All Star Game one more time.

[BoSox21]

Wrong?

 

Look, Tek was leading the early voting. The fans want to see him. Furthermore, Tek, just like Posada or Pudge Rodriguez, is one of the premiere catchers of his generation.

 

I don't think that the All Star Game should be the "Who had the best April and May Game." It should be a chance to see the men who will attract HOF votes five years after they retire, players who define a generation of baseball. It should be guys like Derek Jeter, the definition of the Yankees for a decade and a sure HOFer a decade from now. It should be JD Drew, a great player who won't make the HOF but who's known as an All Star player in his great years. It should be, and was, Tony Conigliaro, a guy whose potential was never fulfilled but who is loved and remembered by Red Sox fans who saw him play. It should be Mariano Rivera, a player who may someday be remembered as the greatest ever at his position. It should be Alex Rodriguez, a player who may someday be remembered as the greatest ever to play the game at any position.

 

Jason Varitek is the Captain of the Boston Red Sox, the leader of the men who broke the curse. Somewhere in the range of what I wrote about Jeter, Drew and Tony C fits Jason Varitek. He won't be in the HOF unless he plays another half-decade at near his peak level and wins a couple more World Series, and that sure doesn't look likely. He does define a great team; at his best, he has been a great player; when he is gone, he will be loved and remembered.

 

Jason Varitek belongs in the All Star Game one more time.

 

nice post.

 

I wish people here had a little more respect for Jason Varitek

[TheKilo]

nice post.

 

I wish people here had a little more respect for Jason Varitek

 

I respect the man, not his baseball playing abilities, which really suck

[jacksonianmarch]

It is really hard to respect a player who is hitting .218

[BSN07]

It is really hard to respect a player who is hitting .218

 

No, Respect the fact he is the Captain and leader of the Boston Red Sox. One of the most storied franchises(along with the Yanks) in league history. Respect the fact that he helps manage a wide variety of personalities in the club house. Respect the fact hes only hitting an obviously embarassing .218, he's sticking it out and continue his work off the field to make sure the pitching staff is as informed as then can be.

 

 

If you take a look at Teks career avg. and say oh I don't know Derek Jeters perhaps. Who is having his worst season at the plate and is only getting worse Defense wise,

 

Career AVG.- .316 this season, .281 down 35 points.

 

Hes on pace for 184, the 2nd lowest of his career,

 

8 HR, 2nd lowest career,

Hes down 44 points in OBP,

 

 

Now lets look at Tek,

 

Career AVG.- .264, this season hes at 2.18, 46 points off, but don't forget he only hit .238 2 seasons ago, its not like this came out fo nowhere.

 

Hes on pace for 106 hits, 5 less the last year

And hes 47 points lower in OBP.

 

And on pace for 14 HR, more then 2 years ago less then last season.

 

 

Jeter is in the AS game, is he more deserving they say Young, OC playing for the 1st place CWS???????

 

 

 

Listen Jeter should start the Game, its at the AS game in Yankee stadium, in the last season of a historic ball park. Most of us can see past Jeters mediocore stats and know he should be in there, is it that hard to look past Teks stats and understand what JHB was saying about deserving another shot at an AS game for other reasons then Stats?:dunno:

 

Now that I've finshed "wiping" off my team glasses, I'm going to put them back on and resume my usual take on Derek Jeter.......................... I F*&%@^ hate that guy:harhar::thumbsup:

[jacksonianmarch]

Jeter is playing like crap as well, but lets be honest here. I'd take Jeter 10/10 at the plate. Vtek's bat is slowing down. And to those who love his defensive abilities, he isnt able to catch one of the five at all, and he is also setting a career low with CS% at 18% (which is exactly what no-arm Posada has gunned out this yr). I am not sure his mythical "handling of the pitching staff" has anything to do with the fact that the sox pitching staff is actually solid.

[ORS]

Believe it or not, there are a good handful or more of military hair "styles" that you can call out by name when you are in the service, and will get a specific cut that is within regulations. There's the "high and tight", which is really, IMO, a modified mohawk. The high part means you are clipped without a guard all the way up to about the normal area where one parts the hair, the tight means what's left on top is left very short, and, as is the regulation for all military hair (at least in the Marines for males), the area between the shorn and short hair must be blended (progressive length change, a fade). Now, it is this progressive length change, IMO, that separates it from the mohawk, and the mohawk is against Marine Corps regs. Reason? It is eccentric. No eccentric hair allowed in the Marines.

 

Another cut you can call out by name is the horseshoe. You've probably all seen this somewhere before, either in real life or parodied on some show. This is where the hair is shorn about halfway up the sides, then the fade kicks in and from below the hat-line, it appears to be a fairly short flat-top. However, the horseshoe, is a bit different than the flat-top. The difference being that the length of the hair sticking up to make the flat-top is cut to the length that will result in the hair being shorn at the very top of the head. When looked at from above, this cut resembles, well, a horseshoe. For some reason, this style of hair is not "eccentric" and is allowed by Marine Corps regs, provided there is blending.

 

This, to me, was always the silliest option at the barber shop on base. I mean who would elect to look like this.....

 

http://www.rateitall.com/itemimages/57270.jpg

 

Well, apparently our catcher has. At least, when I saw him in dugout shots during this last series against the Yankees, it looked that way. I blame the horseshoe. It's eccentricty worked in the past, but it has clearly lost its vigor. We need more. f*** the regs Tek, we need a mohawk.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I am not sure his mythical "handling of the pitching staff" has anything to do with the fact that the sox pitching staff is actually solid.

 

Is that because you didn't understand my previous post involving tOPS+? :dunno:

 

Tek's ability to work with his pitching staff is not "mythical." It's his rep within MLB, where the players voted him onto the All Star Team; it's demonstrated pretty clearly if one looks at Tek's work with young pitchers quantitatively. "Legendary" might be a better adjective: "mythical" denotes falsehood, while "legendary" merely denotes fame.

[TheKilo]

No' date=' Respect the fact he is the Captain and leader of the Boston Red Sox. One of the most storied franchises(along with the Yanks) in league history. Respect the fact that he helps manage a wide variety of personalities in the club house. Respect the fact hes only hitting an obviously embarassing .218, he's sticking it out and continue his work off the field to make sure the pitching staff is as informed as then can be.[/quote']

 

*Vomit*

[jacksonianmarch]

Is that because you didn't understand my previous post involving tOPS+? :dunno:

 

Tek's ability to work with his pitching staff is not "mythical." It's his rep within MLB, where the players voted him onto the All Star Team; it's demonstrated pretty clearly if one looks at Tek's work with young pitchers quantitatively. "Legendary" might be a better adjective: "mythical" denotes falsehood, while "legendary" merely denotes fame.

 

Stats are like bikinis. What they show is revealing. What they hide is crucial. You can find a stat to pump up your captain to be whatever legendary creature you wish. The fact remains, he is a shell of his former self and will likely see his "legendary" ass on his way out of town. The fact that the players voted a .218 hitting catcher into the AS game is nothing more than assinine

[TheKilo]

Stats are like bikinis. What they show is revealing. What they hide is crucial. You can find a stat to pump up your captain to be whatever legendary creature you wish. The fact remains' date=' he is a shell of his former self and will likely see his "legendary" ass on his way out of town. The fact that the players voted a .218 hitting catcher into the AS game is nothing more than assinine[/quote']

 

LOL!!!!!!!!

 

When do we start calling Varitek a black hole? He's making more money than Lugo.

[jacksonianmarch]

I knew you would like that. Wasnt that your prior sig?

[TheKilo]

I knew you would like that. Wasnt that your prior sig?

 

I was being sarcastic, and no.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Stats are like bikinis. What they show is revealing. What they hide is crucial. You can find a stat to pump up your captain to be whatever legendary creature you wish.

 

Stats are like litmus paper, not bikinis. They evoke two responses:

 

1) Responses from individuals who either accept the stats or who refute the stats, based upon evidence in either case; and

 

2) Responses from individuals who, unable to refute the stats, try to discredit those who use quantitative positions in discussion, because they prefer an old-fashioned, emotional, "I can yell louder than you so I must be right" shouting match.

 

Your response is the latter. You've already lost the debate.

 

The fact remains, he is a shell of his former self and will likely see his "legendary" ass on his way out of town. The fact that the players voted a .218 hitting catcher into the AS game is nothing more than assinine.

 

Here you struggle, confusing two opinions of yours with facts. You believe that his slump is a permanent drop in talent level that will result in his being released from the Red Sox; you believe that the support that Varitek's peers show for him is asinine (spelling corrected). Neither is fact. In particular, I'm not sure why you'd insult a plurality of the players who voted for the All Star roster as being asinine: most people who follow MLB respect players' opinions regarding who the best players are.

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinions. Please understand that we may not all be so swift to jump from opinion to fact.

[jacksonianmarch]

so you are going to go on record and say that Jason Varitek deserved to be considered one of the top 3 starting catchers in the AL. You truly believe that?

[Jayhawk Bill]

so you are going to go on record and say that Jason Varitek deserved to be considered one of the top 3 starting catchers in the AL. You truly believe that?

 

"Going to go on record" is a future tense phrase. If you take a moment to actually read this thread (which some of us do before posting), you will find that I have gone on record regarding Jason Varitek and the All Star Game.