6/7 vs. Seattle Mariners

[Jayhawk Bill]

Damn. JD Drew hit a line drive with a runner on third and just one out--that's worth a run 90% of the time.

[ksushi]

JD has been hitting the cover off the ball.

[ORS]

Wow, two in row smoked at a fielder for Drew.

[The Dustball]

Well it's back on for me. Nice double for Cora! Again Drew is right on the ball, unfortunately it was right at a fielder. 4-2.

[The Dustball]

Good start to the 5th. Casey has been a really important aquistition.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Casey has been a really important aquistition.

 

:dunno:

 

As I posted when he was acquired, does it do Boston any good to have Casey with Boston if it buries Chris Carter at Pawtucket? :dunno:

[The Dustball]

:dunno:

 

As I posted when he was acquired, does it do Boston any good to have Casey with Boston if it buries Chris Carter at Pawtucket? :dunno:

 

As long as Casey continues to produce he should remain on the team. I also want to see Carter get a chance, but Casey is helping the team win games and that is the most important thing.

[a700hitter]

:dunno:

 

As I posted when he was acquired, does it do Boston any good to have Casey with Boston if it buries Chris Carter at Pawtucket? :dunno:

We've got Carter and he has options. They can bring him up here and there to give him a taste of the majors. Maybe he will become a good major league hitter, but there is no certainty. He is also defensively challenged. Casey is a lifetime Major League .300 hitter witha good glove. The Sox were not going to be able to get him if they waited and Carter didn't work out. I don't view having Casey in the majors and Carter with options in the minors as a negative.

[a700hitter]

Drew with a CF homer. He is killing the ball.

[ksushi]

We've got Carter and he has options. They can bring him up here and there to give him a taste of the majors. Maybe he will become a good major league hitter' date=' but there is no certainty. He is also defensively challenged. Casey is a lifetime Major League .300 hitter witha good glove. The Sox were not going to be able to get him if they waited and Carter didn't work out. I don't view having Casey in the majors and Carter with options in the minors as a negative.[/quote']

 

To 700: Does it do any good to bury a guy at the age of 25 in your minor leagues, and KILLING the ball, when he should be getting a shot at the bigs?

 

To JHB: Does Carter project as a guy who can ever hold it down for any stretch of time in the bigs at 1b? I think they needed a back up 1b, and I don't know if going into the season with Chris Carter #2 on the depth chart there would have been a good idea. He has hands of stone.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Congratulations, JD Drew.

 

Casey is a lifetime Major League .300 hitter with a good glove.

 

Sean Casey has a lifetime FRAA of -27, and he's never been above-average defensively one single year in his career per BP, despite playing at the easiest defensive position.

 

Lifetime .300 hitter? Yeah, OK, but he played through his prime with the Reds in one of the best hitter's ballparks in MLB in the easier league. His career AL batting average entering 2008 was .280, with only 9 home runs and 50 walks in 202 games.

 

Sean Casey is a 33-year-old on the hot streak of his life, considering venue. Yes, he's done well--but I'm still not sure that it's worth wasting Chris Carter's last option year to play an aging singles-hitting journeyman first baseman.

[ORS]

We've got Carter and he has options. They can bring him up here and there to give him a taste of the majors. Maybe he will become a good major league hitter' date=' but there is no certainty. He is also defensively challenged. Casey is a lifetime Major League .300 hitter witha good glove. The Sox were not going to be able to get him if they waited and Carter didn't work out. I don't view having Casey in the majors and Carter with options in the minors as a negative.[/quote']

The part about the defense is what does it for me. In the AL, good roster construction does not result in a guy on the bench with no glove. Carter can certainly hit, and when the OF is healthy he can come up and DH while Papi is still out, but when the big man is healthy, Carter returns to his emergency use status.

[Jayhawk Bill]

To JHB: Does Carter project as a guy who can ever hold it down for any stretch of time in the bigs at 1b? I think they needed a back up 1b' date=' and I don't know if going into the season with Chris Carter #2 on the depth chart there would have been a good idea. He has hands of stone.[/quote']

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/CARTER19820916A_010.png

 

Carter has roughly a 10%-20% chance of being an MLB star, and a 50% chance of being good enough to hold down a regular job in MLB given a chance.

 

Sean Casey has a 99% chance of being a journeyman the rest of his career.

 

:dunno:

[ksushi]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/CARTER19820916A_010.png

 

Carter has roughly a 10%-20% chance of being an MLB star, and a 50% chance of being good enough to hold down a regular job in MLB given a chance.

 

Sean Casey has a 99% chance of being a journeyman the rest of his career.

 

:dunno:

 

Ain't that somethin'. How do they figure that?

 

And... to clarify I was only question his ability to field his position.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Ain't that somethin'. How do they figure that?

 

And... to clarify I was only question his ability to field his position.

 

They figure it by looking at the subsequent performance of players most similar to Carter...

 

 

Yes!!!! JD Drew!!! Three hits and two line drive outs...WOW! :thumbsup:

 

And, back to Carter, evaluating his fielding to the exclusion of his batting is unfair--Lou Gehrig had a lousy glove, but he held down a job for a few years in MLB.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Lowell to pinch-hit with the bases loaded.

[Youk Of The Nation]

We've scored seven runs without Ortiz, Ellsbury, Lowell, Pedroia, or Varitek. I do believe this team will be alright.

[ORS]

Yes!!!! JD Drew!!! Three hits and two line drive outs...WOW!

Did the azimuth of either of those caught LDs look like they would have made the gap? He's gone 3B, LO, LO, HR, 1B. He may have been robbed of the cycle.

[ksushi]

They figure it by looking at the subsequent performance of players most similar to Carter...

 

 

Yes!!!! JD Drew!!! Three hits and two line drive outs...WOW! :thumbsup:

 

And, back to Carter, evaluating his fielding to the exclusion of his batting is unfair--Lou Gehrig had a lousy glove, but he held down a job for a few years in MLB.

 

Chances Carter ever sticks with the sox?

[Youk Of The Nation]

Youuuk!

 

11-2

[Jayhawk Bill]

Did the azimuth of either of those caught LDs look like they would have made the gap? He's gone 3B' date=' LO, LO, HR, 1B. He may have been robbed of the cycle.[/quote']

 

No, the azimuth of both put them in single range.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Chances Carter ever sticks with the sox?

 

Slim.

 

A big part of my frustration is that solid MLB stats will establish a trade value for Carter that he doesn't have right now. I'd like to see Carter hit .330/.400/.500 for the Red Sox, but more realistically I'd like to see him hit well for KC or Seattle after bringing us the missing piece we needed in late July.

[ORS]

So I switch back after the Belmont, and I find Papelbon on the mound up 11-2. WTF, over?

[Jayhawk Bill]

So I switch back after the Belmont' date=' and I find Papelbon on the mound up 11-2. WTF, over?[/quote']

 

Getting him some work.

 

And WTF, it's over!

 

DFWMM. :thumbsup:

[yeszir]

Talk about up and down, man. Tomorrow we're gonna lose 47-0.

[ksushi]

Slim.

 

A big part of my frustration is that solid MLB stats will establish a trade value for Carter that he doesn't have right now. I'd like to see Carter hit .330/.400/.500 for the Red Sox, but more realistically I'd like to see him hit well for KC or Seattle after bringing us the missing piece we needed in late July.

 

Honestly, I think we get max value by trading another first basemen on our roster. Youk's perceived value is pretty high, and I think Carter is more likely to sustain a reasonably productive pace at the plate for an entire season. The question is, does Youk's defense level it off a little bit? I would be quick to think not, only because I am a firm believer in defense up the middle, offense at the corners, but that is my personal philosophy, and all of those are always subject to change.

[riverside sluggers]

A viable possibility is Youk moving over to 3rd once Lowell's 3 year contract is up with Lars Anderson possibly taking over 1st base

 

Solid game by Wakefield and one hell of an offensive comeback by the offense

[Jayhawk Bill]

Honestly' date=' I think we get max value by trading another first basemen on our roster. Youk's perceived value is pretty high, and I think Carter is more likely to sustain a reasonably productive pace at the plate for an entire season. The question is, does Youk's defense level it off a little bit? I would be quick to think not, only because I am a firm believer in defense up the middle, offense at the corners, but that is my personal philosophy, and all of those are always subject to change.[/quote']

 

A couple of thoughts:

 

1) Defense at first base is critical in Fenway Park. The shape of the playing area down and near the right field line turns line drives, and even missed ground balls, easily into triples and bases-clearing doubles. I don't have a good Park Factor for that effect, but it's significant.

 

2) The impact of good corner infielders may be greater than you're assuming. I did a quick check of how much qualifying AL first basemen differed in RZR last season. Youkilis led the AL with an .835, converting 83.5% of ground balls in his zone into outs. Richie Sexson was last at .655, but half of qualifying first basemen were at .729 or less. That's roughly a 10% better chance that Youkilis will field a ball than an average first baseman. A first baseman gets about three opportunities to field a ground ball every two games, so that's three-tenths of a single every two games...or about 25 hits a year.

 

Let's get an idea of the magnitude of that by adjusting Youk's hitting stats to include his dominance as a defensive first baseman. Kevin Youkilis hit .288/.390/.453 last year. Let's award him 25 more hits--15 more singles and 10 more doubles--to account for his defense. That would leave Youk as roughly a .335/.430/.520 hitter, a representative batting line for Wade Boggs near his peak.

 

Defense at first base is important, especially for Boston. I wouldn't be quick to trade Youk.

[a700hitter]

Did they take away Youk's belt, shoe laces and all sharp objects yesterday after his error?