Melky coming of age?

[jacksonianmarch]

What a month from a guy who was to be a throw in for Santana. Good D with a stellar arm and now some power. His .500+SLG and 5 homers has exceeded expectations, although prospectus did project that he'd slug over .500 at some point in his career.

[ORS]

Hittrackeronline has his two YS HRs in the "Just Enough / Luck" category. That said, he has been good this month. With his track record of streakiness and hard slumps, he's going to have to do it longer before he's "come of age". The thread title deserves a question mark at the end.

[schillingouttheks]

The thread title deserves a question mark at the end.

 

Fixed, because I agree with you.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Stop smoking crack... Don't buy into New York media hype. Cabrera is an average CF at best overall.

 

Doing pretty well for an average CF, IMO. YMMV.

 

From this point on' date=' when I refer to Melky I will call him..."AllStar Melky Cabrera."[/quote']

 

See, a700hitter saw this coming last winter.

 

Melky Cabrera is most likely to develop into an All Star...That doesn't mean that his work at ages 21 or 22 has been All Star caliber. But most All Stars aren't All Stars as 22-year-old rookies' date=' they're in the minor leagues. Melky Cabrera has been in MLB for two years already and he's still a year younger than Ellsbury. That suggests very significant talent.[/quote']

 

I considered it likely, too, although I didn't post that 2008 would be the first All Star season for Melky Cabrera, as it may be. He's off to a good start.

 

Sure' date=' we differ. Tell you what, if by chance we ever meet, I'll buy you a beer if Melky ever makes an All-Star game.[/quote']

 

I'll keep that in mind. Thanks! :thumbsup:

[26 to 6]

I have nothing to say. I'm just gonna sit back, smile, and enjoy it.

And I'll try not to say I told you so.

 

Lets not forget how everybody used to s*** on me and my favorite Yankee prospect, especially after his 2005 callup, and the first game of his 2006 stint. I know he hasn't done it year in and year out on a consistent basis, but what did I say??

 

Where are all the quotes in this thread coming from, was there another thread?

[ORS]

LOL - "I'm not going to say I told you so, but, I told you so"

 

25 games. He's been playing big league ball for 12 months (5 in '06, 6 in '07, 1 in '08). With a career OPS of .730, he's had 6 months that are either +/- .100 or more from that mean. He's shown an ability to be either very hot or very cold. My guess is those looking to crow might want to give the other shoe a chance to drop before doing so. Just a thought.

[26 to 6]

LOL - "I'm not going to say I told you so, but, I told you so"

 

25 games. He's been playing big league ball for 12 months (5 in '06, 6 in '07, 1 in '08). With a career OPS of .730, he's had 6 months that are either +/- .100 or more from that mean. He's shown an ability to be either very hot or very cold. My guess is those looking to crow might want to give the other shoe a chance to drop before doing so. Just a thought.

Same should go for you, especially. You in particular have had a tendancy, since 2005, to rip Melky and his abilities. In 2006 when he went on his first hot-streak I remember you calling it a fluke and saying something along the lines of "I hope the Yankees FO buys into this and is stupid enough to hang onto him for the long-term. It won't last." Not exactly word for word, but it was something to that effect.

[Jayhawk Bill]

My guess is those looking to crow might want to give the other shoe a chance to drop before doing so. Just a thought.

 

Just the way everybody carefully considered that he might improve with age before responding to my research and analysis last winter?

 

ORS, as a guy who understands statistics and research well, you know very well the frustrations of those who try to point out long-term probabilities that run counter to current stat lines. I've been there--but right now I'm bringing up what I wrote about Melky before Spring Training started, which now seems pretty solid forecasting. That seems eminently fair to me.

 

If this happens to be just an unprecedented hot streak, not an indication that he's developed power, well...exactly what are folks going to post that they didn't already post last winter, when they were assuming that Melky wouldn't get better with age? :dunno:

[ORS]

Same should go for you' date=' especially. You in particular have had a tendancy, since 2005, to rip Melky and his abilities. In 2006 when he went on his first hot-streak I remember you calling it a fluke and saying something along the lines of "I hope the Yankees FO buys into this and is stupid enough to hang onto him for the long-term. It won't last." Not exactly word for word, but it was something to that effect.[/quote']

I don't rip his abilities, I just find them deficient from what I would expect from a perennial contender. He's already demonstrated subpar range at CF and he's only 23. He's not going to get any faster. Not with his body type. He's thick in the middle. Not fat, but barrel chested, but he lacks the powerful legs that Kirby Puckett had to stay in CF. He'll ultimately need to move to a corner, more than likely RF with his arm. The problem there is that he doesn't appear, over a season's worth of work, to have the type of power one expects from COF star. Will he be adequate? I think that's a perfectly reasonable expectation. I can see him hitting 20 HRs regularly by his late 20's, especially in that stadium. Is that an all-star corner outfielder? Only if the fans juke the vote.

 

I'd love for the Yankees to find this acceptable. I'd love for them to pass on better players in future years to keep him in RF.

 

Just the way everybody carefully considered that he might improve with age before responding to my research and analysis last winter?

 

ORS, as a guy who understands statistics and research well, you know very well the frustrations of those who try to point out long-term probabilities that run counter to current stat lines. I've been there--but right now I'm bringing up what I wrote about Melky before Spring Training started, which now seems pretty solid forecasting. That seems eminently fair to me.

 

If this happens to be just an unprecedented hot streak, not an indication that he's developed power, well...exactly what are folks going to post that they didn't already post last winter, when they were assuming that Melky wouldn't get better with age?

I don't doubt that he will improve. Where I think we differ is that magnitude of his improvement. I think his body type will lend itself well to doubling the power he's demonstrated to date. That puts him, like I mentioned above, it the 20+ area. All-Star performance from a CF, but I think that same body prevents him from continuing there. The usual suspects in the ASG for COF spots tend to do more than I see him doing. And, it isn't like he's going to get the pity "one from every team" spot being on the Yankees. That said, the fans could rock the vote. So, that first round is at the mercy of the rationality of Yankee fans. Great.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I don't doubt that he will improve. Where I think we differ is that magnitude of his improvement. I think his body type will lend itself well to doubling the power he's demonstrated to date. That puts him' date=' like I mentioned above, it the 20+ area. All-Star performance from a CF, but I think that same body prevents him from continuing there. The usual suspects in the ASG for COF spots tend to do more than I see him doing. And, it isn't like he's going to get the pity "one from every team" spot being on the Yankees. That said, the fans could rock the vote. So, that first round is at the mercy of the rationality of Yankee fans. Great.[/quote']

 

We probably differ on the magnitude of expected improvement, as you write.

 

But give me a little credit--I did know that fans vote for All Stars when I posted last winter, and I do know the comparative size of the YES Network media market and that of any other AL team.

[ORS]

Certainly, the credit is yours for recognition of the system. I too considered the current selection system, which is why my wager is but a trifle. So, I think some credit should go my way as well.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Certainly' date=' the credit is yours for recognition of the system. I too considered the current selection system, which is why my wager is but a trifle. So, I think some credit should go my way as well.[/quote']

 

Consider credit extended...

 

hey, it's easy to respect rational thinkers who have sacrificed for their nation and who remain "Always Faithful" to, among others, the Boston Red Sox.

[26 to 6]

I'd say Melky has at least average range watching some of the balls he's gotten to. And I certainly see him hitting more than 20 HRs at his peak, but I guess only time will tell.

[Optimist]

It's certainly interesting to see Melky heading into May with more HRs than A-Rod.

[redsoxrules]

so yeah jacko , how's melky been doing lately ?

[Jayhawk Bill]

so yeah jacko ' date=' how's melky been doing lately ?[/quote']

 

I'll field that. Melky has a .196 BABIP in May entering tonight's game. He has a .254 BABIP on the year, including an absurd .049 BABIP on fly balls. Most doubles and triples are from uncaught fly balls, not line drives or ground balls--Melky's extra bases, and about a third of his expected hits, are being hit right to fielders by, umm, luck.

 

Melky's career BABIP is .294, just what you'd expect from an average MLB hitter. Were he getting a .294 BABIP this year, he'd be hitting near .300 with medium power, just as he was through most of April.

[redsoxrules]

I'll field that. Melky has a .196 BABIP in May entering tonight's game. He has a .254 BABIP on the year, including an absurd .049 BABIP on fly balls. Most doubles and triples are from uncaught fly balls, not line drives or ground balls--Melky's extra bases, and about a third of his expected hits, are being hit right to fielders by, umm, luck.

 

Melky's career BABIP is .294, just what you'd expect from an average MLB hitter. Were he getting a .294 BABIP this year, he'd be hitting near .300 with medium power, just as he was through most of April.

 

melky is still sucking 1 month and a half later :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

I am officially the kiss of death for this guy. I made a post last yr prior to Sept about how he was one of the top 5 AL CFers and then he went 18 for 100. He starts out amazing in April and then absolutely tanks after my post. No more. How bout this.

 

Melkman sucks

[ORS]

Melkman sucks

Rather than abracadabra, hocus pocus, and jinx, just consider something, this statement might just be true.

[TheKilo]

PRAISE JESUS HE'S SEEN THE LIGHT