Bullpen Concerns

[TheKilo]

MDC keeps spitting the bit every time it's offered. They need to get Hansen back up as soon the 10 days pass and see what they've got there. MDC is looking more and more like a middle of the game reliever, and not an end game option.

 

I will say this in his defense last night. It made absolutely no sense to pitch MDC to Lind. I know JHB posted his power pitcher splits in the game thread, but he's got a pretty strong LH/RH split too, and Oki is just a better pitcher. I think the stronger power pitcher split is negated by the quality of pitchers involved. Oki hadn't thrown since 4/24, so he was well rested. When your usual 8th inning guy hasn't had work in 5 days, give him the ball to start the inning in a 1-run game. I'm pretty sure the intent was to buy an inning's worth of outs from MDC and not pitch Papelbon on consecutive days, but it almost blew up in his face, and luckily, Oki was able to shake off the rust and get the job done after coming in without his full warm-up.

 

This is why the move made sense. The Jays had 891 coming up.

 

Believe it or not, I'm surprised by how quick the hook was. It seemed like they had a plan going...let him pitch until he allowed a baserunner. Unfortunately, it happened on the 2nd pitch.

 

Okajima didn't look so hot last night to start either. If not for a great play by Moss, we could have been looking at an Okajima loss.

[redsoxrules]

.

 

 

 

Okajima didn't look so hot last night to start either. .

 

yes he did

[ORS]

MDC = Meatball Deluxe Central

[TheKilo]

yes he did

 

You mean when he gave up the double and the sac fly Moss made a great play on?

[redsoxrules]

You mean when he gave up the double and the sac fly Moss made a great play on?

 

and then struck out eck and rolen and did not give up an earned run if he would of started the inning the red sox would of held the 1-0 lead . you cant expect him to save every base runner from scoring that were allready on base or to go 1-2-3 every time

[TheKilo]

and then struck out eck and rolen and did not give up an earned run if he would of started the inning the red sox would of held the 1-0 lead . you cant expect him to save every base runner from scoring that were allready on base or to go 1-2-3 every time

 

He did allow the runner to score, though, and it's not like the bases were loaded or anything. It was man on first, no one out.

 

What would you be saying if Brandon Moss didn't make that catch?

[SCM33]

MDC = Meatball Deluxe Central

 

Hes really been awful. Im not mad about it, just disappointed.....just kind of shake my head and say, I just dont get it....

 

Im starting to think that maybe last year he was just a polished turd, and this year hes just a turd....thats probably a little too far....its just a joke, just a joke before someone jumps on the quote.

 

Okijima cant go through the whole season bailing guys out and throwing multiple innings, he will wear out again.

 

Theyve got to make a decision about him though.......he cant continue pitching this badly and expect to see meaningful innings. I think he should be given a few garbage innings to try and fix whatever is going on with him.

 

I guess the Hansen callup is the immediate reaction of the ballclub to see if maybe, just maybe he can provide just a little of what a setup guy should do from the right side.

 

I really want him to succeed being a Boston kid and all.......come on MDC, wake up and pull through.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Manny Delcarmen's xFIP, by year:

 

[table] Year | xFIP

2005 | 4.59

2006 | 4.04

2007 | 4.07

2008 | 3.95 [/table]

 

That looks like very consistent pitching once the effect of fielders is removed. The trouble, of course, is that xFIP can hide two things that can raise ERA: either a decrease in ground balls (an increase in fly balls is captured, but ground balls are captured only indirectly) or an increase in line drives. Let's check:

 

[table] Year | LD% | GB%

2005 | 16.7 | 62.5

2006 | 25.7 | 44.6

2007 | 17.0 | 44.6

2008 | 12.8 | 59.0 [/table]

 

Looking at the peripherals, MDC should be having his best season. The biggest missing element is home runs: MDC has allowed two fly ball home runs despite allowing only 12 fly balls all season. A contributing factor is that 34.8% of his ground balls in play have been allowed through for hits and that 100% of his line drives in play have become hits, both figures about a third too high. Boston's only given MDC a .632 DER--any pitcher can look bad with that support.

 

The HR/FB rate will return to around 11-12% with time, not 16.7%, and the DER allowed should rise to around .700, maybe better if MDC can keep avoiding line drives.

 

This isn't MDC's fault, IMO. I counsel patience.

[YAZMAN]

MDC threw hard and threw strikes yesterday. But he couldn't get anybody out, and threw 19 pitches facing 3 batters. Both hits he gave up were with two strikes after the hitter had seen his entire bag of tricks. You can work ahead all you want, but without an "out" pitch it's going to be tough for him to stay with the club long term.

[redsoxrules]

He did allow the runner to score, though, and it's not like the bases were loaded or anything. It was man on first, no one out.

 

What would you be saying if Brandon Moss didn't make that catch?

 

yes the runner scored , but that wasent his runner , and moss did make the catch .

point is when you have a 1 run lead going to the 8th you dont bring up a strugging pitcher , you bring your set up man who has an ERA under 1 and is known to do the job

[Jayhawk Bill]

MDC threw hard and threw strikes yesterday. But he couldn't get anybody out' date=' and threw 19 pitches facing 3 batters. Both hits he gave up were with two strikes after the hitter had seen his entire bag of tricks. You can work ahead all you want, but without an "out" pitch it's going to be tough for him to stay with the club long term.[/quote']

 

The hits came on 97.7 mph and 95.5 mph fastballs. Most pitchers consider fastballs of that velocity "out pitches." It's tough to make good contact on such pitches as a batter.

 

Furthermore, in three batters MDC allowed a ground ball, a line drive and a fly ball in the park, in that order. The most likely outcome for that sequence of balls in play is "runner on first, two out." One of the least likely outcomes is "run scored, runner on third, one out." Part of the issue yesterday is the exact location to which balls were hit and where fielders were positioned. Over time MDC's luck with defensive support will even out, but right now he's getting screwed.

 

I see MDC as a guy who can pitch to a 4.00 ERA long-term from the bullpen if he maintains his current level of skill and talent. That's not closer quality, but it's certainly MLB-quality.

[YAZMAN]

The hits came on 97.7 mph and 95.5 mph fastballs. Most pitchers consider fastballs of that velocity "out pitches." It's tough to make good contact on such pitches as a batter.

 

Furthermore, in three batters MDC allowed a ground ball, a line drive and a fly ball in the park, in that order. The most likely outcome for that sequence of balls in play is "runner on first, two out." One of the least likely outcomes is "run scored, runner on third, one out." Part of the issue yesterday is the exact location to which balls were hit and where fielders were positioned. Over time MDC's luck with defensive support will even out, but right now he's getting screwed.

 

I see MDC as a guy who can pitch to a 4.00 ERA long-term from the bullpen if he maintains his current level of skill and talent. That's not closer quality, but it's certainly MLB-quality.

 

I agree with what you are saying, and I like MDC. But at the game yeasterday it appeared as if his fastball must have been flat. He hit his spots early in the count, then got fouled off with pretty decent looking two-strike swings. The balls hit into play were solidly hit, almost like they were "sat on".

 

At the MLB level, even 95-97mph fastballs are going to get hit hard if they have no movement.

[SCM33]

I agree with what you are saying, and I like MDC. But at the game yeasterday it appeared as if his fastball must have been flat. He hit his spots early in the count, then got fouled off with pretty decent looking two-strike swings. The balls hit into play were solidly hit, almost like they were "sat on".

 

At the MLB level, even 95-97mph fastballs are going to get hit hard if they have no movement.

 

His fastball has always been kind of flat. The thing that makes him tick is his curveball. When he is right, he has a nasty 12-6 deuce. When hes wrong, his fastball gets tattooed all over the park.

 

Other pitchers can get away with less than stellar stuff. When MDC isnt on his game, and what I mean is falling behind in counts.....his fastball becomes the only pitch he can throw for strikes......and they get hit hard.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Our bullpen just got better: Bryan Corey has been traded to the Padres for cash and a PTBNL.

 

http://blogs.courant.com/redsox/2008/05/cora-activated-lowrie-demoted.html

[CrespoBlows]

Our bullpen just got better: Bryan Corey has been traded to the Padres for cash and a PTBNL.

 

http://blogs.courant.com/redsox/2008/05/cora-activated-lowrie-demoted.html

 

Khali Greene.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Khali Greene.

 

 

You know, though, maybe he could pitch better than Bryan Corey...

[RobZombie]

In all seriousness the Red Sox have traded prospects for a reliever three times in the Theo era. Its kinda worked out once (Williamson). As we've seen veteran relievers can fall off the cliff pretty quickly even late in the season. It may happen even more this year with decreased steroid use.

 

Gammons on the radio has said that the Sox would be hard pressed to get someone on the open market with better stuff than MDC and Hansen.

 

They have the solutions on the team. They just have to wait to see them work themselves out as opposed to making a desperate move. My bet is that by the end of the season, both guys are very good options at the back end of games.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Who's our best relief pitcher so far this season?

 

Javier Lopez.

 

 

Yup, Javier Lopez.

 

How do I reach this conclusion? By checking WXRL. WXRL is a measure of the change in Win Expectation during a pitcher's outings above that expected from a Replacement-level pitcher, adjusted for strength of opposing lineups. Note that this metric gives great credit for holding tight late-inning leads and and even greater penalty for blowing those leads, even if runners left by other pitchers score the actual game-changing runs. It's who's on the mound that counts.

 

Here are the stats thus far for 2008:

 

[table]NAME | WXRL (Wins) | LEV

Javier Lopez | 0.77 | 1.15

Hideki Okajima | 0.54 | 1.68

Jonathan Papelbon | 0.50 | 1.77

David Aardsma | 0.49 | 0.80

Bryan Corey | 0.08 | 0.86

Julian Tavarez | -0.28 | 0.34

Kyle Snyder | -0.29 | 1.26

Mike Timlin | -0.53 | 1.16

Craig Hansen | -0.54 | 1.13

Manny Delcarmen | -0.59 | 0.91

Total | 0.15 | 1.00*[/table]

 

The entire Boston bullpen, as a group, has been 0.15 wins better than a bunch of ten AAA call-ups thus far in 2008.

 

That's terrible. It's also probably not indicative of the bullpen's talent. Disregarding the stats of Corey, Tavarez and Snyder, all of whom are gone, raises the sum WXRL to 0.65, half a win better. We also know that we're taking a snapshot of Jon Papelbon at his worst moment: he would've been closer to 2.50 WXRL if not for those two fluke blown saves.

 

But flukes count in the stats.

 

Let's face it, relief pitching has been a problem for Boston in 2008. Let's also take heart in realizing that this is an area where we can expect to do much, much better the rest of the way, even without the Front Office's making a trade. Last year Papelbon, Okajima, Lopez, Delcarmen and Timlin were worth 13.3 WXRL over the course of the year. Expecting a third that much from the bullpen from now through September would mean a Boston team winning 99 games instead of the 95 games one might project from our current standings. Expecting just two-thirds of last year's production--expecting our relief pitchers to match, not to exceed, what they did last year--would result in 103 wins for Boston, all other factors held constant.

 

***

 

Our bullpen has sucked thus far. They're still good pitchers, though, and we're still a very good team. :thumbsup:

 

 

 

 

* a leverage index of 1.00 defines the beginning of a game; the mean of Boston relief pitchers' LEV is different and less relevant.

[dowling25]

I think you stick with MDC and Hansen this year. I feel they will be able to do something as the year progresses......Hopefully.

[yeszir]

We here at Talksox know that the Red Sox win and lose not because of their performance on the field, but solely because of who starts the game thread and the subsequent "mojo" instilled in the team.

 

So, who sucks at starting game threads? Who's the best? I intend to keep a running tally (updated periodically) of every game thread starter's record for the 08 season.

 

These stats are current through 5/25

 

[table=Game Thread Records]Username| Wins|Losses

Schillingouttheks|2|3

MANNYHOF24|2|1

riversidesluggers|0|2

Coco's Disciples|1|3

Thumper|10|2

TheKilo|5|2

bosoxnation07|0|1

One Red Seat|0|1

VA Sox Fan|4|2

Jayhawk Bill|7|2

Bosox21|0|1

redsoxrules|0|1

yeszir|0|1

[/table]

 

There you have it. The Red Sox seem to have a winning record thanks solely to Thumper and Jayhawk Bill. TheKilo hasn't hurt them either.

[Thumper]

I'm the "Ace" of the posting staff, eh? Ha ha.

 

I wonder sometimes if the mojo really does help.

[Cocos Disciples]

I'm the "Ace" of the posting staff, eh? Ha ha.

 

I wonder sometimes if the mojo really does help.

 

Hint: No.

[Thumper]

Hint: No.

 

Yes, I KNOW it doesn't make a difference whether or not a YouTube video is added to the gamethread, but it's still fun.

[Cocos Disciples]

Yes' date=' I KNOW it doesn't make a difference whether or not a YouTube video is added to the gamethread, but it's still fun.[/quote']

 

[BoSox21]

the key: start a thread for a home game

[YAZMAN]

the key: start a thread for a home game

 

Homojo?

[Mr Crunchy]

jesus that was deep

reminds me of the difficult sunday morning my cousin's girlfriend had out on the boat,50 miles east of gloucester,7 men hungover from a festive beach wedding discussing east german pornography,rim jobs and fisting....

and this poor young girl,couldnt have been 20 yet,sitting on the bow of the boat and hearing things that she never was intended to hear,breathless in her fear and pending anticipation of being dragged below for the crews entertainment....and the captain and the cousin both knew if things didnt get going quickly all bets were off...

thankfully the haddock were jumping in the boat and the boisterous gentlemen were too buzy fishing and fileting and werent distracted by the size 3 goddess sitting on the bow looking like bambi at a gun club.

 

homojo

playing the lucky pierre

[YAZMAN]

Speaking of Lucky Pierre, where has billy been?

[Mr Crunchy]

billy has been involved in a domestic incident between his mom and her new boyfriend, jamaal....billy resents the fact that theres someone else stealing his moms refreshing Misty Menthols and getting into her change purse.

[YAZMAN]

Jamaal flattened both tires on his Huffy, didn't he?