Red Sox Sign Japanese Pitcher Matsuo

[a700hitter]

If you know anything about this guy, please share. It seems that he must be pretty good.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/03/sox_sign_japane.html

[26 to 6]

He only played in an independent league, no affiliations with NPB. I believe the Sox are currently in negotiations with a catcher from the same team.

[ksushi]

That league is full of untapped talent, thing is, the talent level there is for the most part marginal at best. I think its a move to create a comfortable atmosphere within the system for Japanese players making the leap to the Red Sox. He has a little upside and might be able to hone his skills and contribute as a reliever, but I don't think anyone out of that league is going to come over and blow people away.

[26 to 6]

Not at all. From what I've read in the past the Shikoku Island League isn't even the top indy league in Japan. Matsuo did have a great year last year, but this is against guys who arent even on affiliated Japanese baseball, which at it's top/"Major" level is roughly the equivalent of AAA level ball. Some call is AAAA. Now this doesnt say much considering there are only12 teams and 1 farm team per club,so these indy Japanese players could prove to MAYBE pan out here and there, but nobody should expect much. I mean, there have been enough instances of top level (or at least recognizable) NPB players coming over and not doing a thing, so who knows with the indy guys. Great step by the Red Sox in reaching outside of the box on this one, but only time will tell.

 

On a side-note I think it's REALLY interesting that the Sox are willing to bring this guy's catcher along with him. Makes sense in helping him settle in and get acclimated, but I wonder if they have any real interest in the catcher beyond being a comfort block for Matsuo.

[ksushi]

Untapped talent doesn't mean good talent its just that as you said, the sox went outside the box to sign a guy out of a league that has been largely untouched by the rest of major league baseball.

 

The point was I think its a move to just inject a little japanese culture into our system to smooth the transition for guys who we might reach out to in Japan who aren't major league ready but are young enough where if signed and left to develop in AAA could be nice major league players. It's tough to entice those players over here to make 60,000ish a year and have no guarentee of ever seeing the big leagues. They'd be living in pawtucket and their per diem would be in the nieghborhood of 60 bucks and they would drive themselves crazy. If we collected a number of players and lined our system with japanese speaking talent, no matter what level of talent, enticing the guys with raw upside and actual value becomes possible.

[BoSox21]

who knows, Oki wasn't supposed to be anything special either

[SCM33]

who knows' date=' Oki wasn't supposed to be anything special either[/quote']

 

Exactly, its clear he has some talent, the numbers back that up. Only question is to whether the Sox can further develop the talent the kid already has. Having a couple of Japanese guys cant hurt him either as the language barrier/transition should be smoother.

[26 to 6]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/03/30/relationship_would_be_valentine_gift/

 

That's where I read that the Sox were in negotions with the catcher from the same team, Hayato Doue. Just came across it again and figued I would share.

[Cocos Disciples]

I don't expect anything from either of these guys.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Not at all. From what I've read in the past the Shikoku Island League isn't even the top indy league in Japan. Matsuo did have a great year last year, but this is against guys who arent even on affiliated Japanese baseball, which at it's top/"Major" level is roughly the equivalent of AAA level ball. Some call is AAAA. Now this doesnt say much considering there are only12 teams and 1 farm team per club,so these indy Japanese players could prove to MAYBE pan out here and there, but nobody should expect much. I mean, there have been enough instances of top level (or at least recognizable) NPB players coming over and not doing a thing, so who knows with the indy guys. Great step by the Red Sox in reaching outside of the box on this one, but only time will tell.

 

On a side-note I think it's REALLY interesting that the Sox are willing to bring this guy's catcher along with him. Makes sense in helping him settle in and get acclimated, but I wonder if they have any real interest in the catcher beyond being a comfort block for Matsuo.

 

Oh, poooey.

 

OK, this guy's ERA for the past three seasons:

 

2005: 1.30 3-2 (14 SV, closer)

2006: 1.82 11-2 (4 SV, transition to starter)

2007: 1.72 15-3

 

http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/松尾晃雅

 

This is from the Shikoku-Kyushu League, representing the second and third-biggest Japanese islands by population. NPB is a little higher than AAA equivalent, so call this AA: it's still pretty impressive to post an ERA below 2.00 three consecutive years along with a 29-7 W/L record.

 

Pitchers are hard to predict, but I don't doubt that he has MLB-level skill. The question is whether or not he can translate that talent into results an ocean, a continent and a language barrier away from home.

 

***

 

ksushi, great thoughts on this issue. :thumbsup:

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Looking for a scouting report....all I've read was 92 mph fastball and a good locating slider.

[ksushi]

The problem then with our guy would be that he is 26 in a league roughly equivalent to AA - and obviously a 26 year old in AA hasn't made a whole lot of progress thus far. Any idea where one could find the average of a player in his league?

[satch9841]

terrific info, still havent seen his personal info like righty or lefty, ht or weight. This guy must have some talent. How about his age? Sox might have found a sleeper here.

[rician blast]

If you know anything about this guy, please share. It seems that he must be pretty good.

 

uhhh...you could blindfold him with thread?

 

can I say that?

[Jayhawk Bill]

The problem then with our guy would be that he is 26 in a league roughly equivalent to AA - and obviously a 26 year old in AA hasn't made a whole lot of progress thus far.

 

There's no shame in being a 26-year-old dominating a AA-level league if there's no AAA or MLB-level team in the system. Lefty Grove led his league in strikeouts for four consecutive years when he was with the Orioles--back when the Orioles were an unaffiliated AAA-level team. If you're stuck by contract with a team, all you can do is dominate where you play, which is what Matsuo has done.

 

Any idea where one could find the average of a player in his league?

 

You make me a better man, ksushi. I didn't think that I could answer that question for you, but here's what I think you need:

 

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.iblj.co.jp/&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=15&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2522shikoku%2Bkyushu%2Bisland%2Bleague%2522%26num%3D100%26hl%3Den%26rls%3DGFRC,GFRC:2006-49,GFRC:en

 

seems to be a translation of the Shikoku-Kyushu Island League 2007 pitching stats.

 

http://www.iblj.co.jp/player/rank_p02.html

 

is the original site. I'm troubled that just four, not six teams are listed...but this seems to be the link.

 

The mean here is deceptive--it makes Matsuo look too good. The replacement-level player in this league is much worse than the core talent level. Look at it this way: there are just 12 pitchers listed with over 100 IP. Here's the distribution pattern of their ERAs:

 

1.00-1.99: 3

2.00-2.99: 6

3.00-3.99: 1

4.00-4.99: 2

 

Matsuo is roughly a run better than league norm--not league mean--in ERA.

 

***

 

So what?

 

Let's go from data analysis to SWAG: what's a reasonable MLE?

 

Assumptions:

 

1) Shikoku-Kyushu Island League's core talent is roughly AA-level. I feel pretty good about this: they stocked their teams with recent NPB castoffs, which should define a level one notch below NPB. NPB itself is higher than AAA, so assuming a AA level seems slightly conservative.

 

2) An average MLB-affiliated AA League would have a league ERA around 4.50, roughly the same as MLB.

 

3) Matsuo is one run below league norm.

 

4) Hitters lose about 15% of their SLG and OBP making a direct jump from AA to MLB; conversely, pitchers should see ERAs increase by about 1/(.85^2), or roughly 38%.

 

All that would leave Matsuo in the just-under 5.00 ERA range as an MLB starter.

 

Meh. It's a SWAG. :dunno:

 

It still looks as if Matsuo is an MLB-level talent: starting pitchers who can post ERAs around 5.00 aren't superstars, but they can find MLB jobs. If he were to translate better than I'm projecting, then he's definitely worth keeping as a future 4/5 starter. If he were just a little worse...well, his catcher hit .322 in their league, so maybe...

[Jayhawk Bill]

terrific info' date=' still havent seen his personal info like righty or lefty, ht or weight. This guy must have some talent. How about his age? Sox might have found a sleeper here.[/quote']

 

Age: 26

Born: January 18, 1982

Kagawa, Japan

Height: 5-11

Weight: 176 (pounds, not kilograms )

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/matsuo-terumasa.htm

[VA Sox Fan]

uhhh...you could blindfold him with thread?

 

can I say that?

 

Certainly. Andrew Dice Clay said you could blindfold them with dental floss....

[Mr Crunchy]

i dunno

i always had a thing for janet wu and i had a soda with virginia cha after being interviewed outside boston u med center when my son was born.

i would love to eat chinese this afternoon for that matter.

 

i may have to take a ride over to kneeland street

Ohhh samgun make a chinese food

schwwwwwwwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeng american

 

eastern women can be over rated on video but the reality??

i havent jerked off in public in quite a while,3 months anyways

keep me on this topic and i'll be getting buzy

 

how are ya ellie mae?

i miss y'all terribly

tell rico and your sis in law sean patrick sends his best

i think im heading down that way for a senators game some time in june as i love the look of that ballpark...

arent you 1/2 asian?

[YAZMAN]

If you know anything about this guy' date=' please share.[/quote']

 

There was never a feral cat problem at any ballpark with teams he played with for at least two weeks.