Analyzing the Santana deal

[Gom]

Well, for once, both my Yankee brethren and the rest of you Sox fans can actually breathe a sigh of relief on an off-season move. Here is my take on the Santana deal, the winners and losers, in order. Let me know what you think.

 

Winner [huge]: Santana

 

Everyone is missing this one. First of all, the Mets didn't give up anything of any value to get the best pitcher on the planet, so his new team is strong and not gutted. Secondly, he goes from what was the most competitive division in baseball [this honor has returned to the AL East after this trade] to one of the weakest offensive divisions in baseball. Also, the switch to the NL from the AL will help him, as well as moving to a very strong pitcher's park. Pedro went from Boston to New York, and his ERA dropped a point. Expect Santana to do the same, and win the NL Cy Young in 2008.

 

Winner [big]: Mets

 

The Mets got who they wanted, and Minaya just guaranteed himself an extension. They gave up a very weak class of prospects relatively speaking to get the best pitcher in the game. Minaya bided his time, and hoped and prayed the Yankees were out of it. Expect Minaya to send Cashman a case of Crystal for letting Santana go. After this season, he may even be offering Cashman a job.

 

Winner: Guardians, Tigers

 

Everyone is focusing on the Yankees/Red Sox winners, but it's actually these two teams that will benefit the most. Santana would face them an average of four times each a season. By removing Santana from the equation, it lessens Minnesota's impact on the race, and giving the loser for the division an better chance of making the wild card.

 

Winner: Red Sox

 

I still believe, and always believed, the Red Sox never wanted Santana. They just didn't want to see him go the Yankees. Their offers got better as the Yankees offers got better, and when the Yankees announced they were out, the Red Sox pulled Lester out of the deal, thereby guaranteeing Santana would go to the Mets. As good as Santana is, a lefty fly ball pitcher in Fenway is not a blue print for success, as his poor record at Fenway helps attest.

 

Winner...and also loser...maybe: Yankees

 

Cashman has wagered his job on this move. If he had traded for Santana, even against his wishes, he had made it very obvious in the media that he was against the deal, and could take credit for it if it worked out, and could have teflon-ed his way out of blame if it didn't. It is my opinion that the Yankees had made the best formal offer, which they later withdrew. In short, the Yankees should have stayed in it, and pulled the trigger. The NY media will remind Cashman of his failures if Santana racks up wins [which he will in the weak NL East] and Huhges doesn't pan out. If Hughes turns out to be an All-Star this season, then the Yankees are big winners. If he turns out to be a back of the rotation starter, or if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs this year, the Yankees are big losers, and Cashman is out of a job.

 

Loser [HUGE]: Twins

 

An absolutely asinine deal for the Twins. It is indefensible. First year GM Smith of the Twins has been a GM for two years too long. Regardless of which offer you think is best, there is little doubt that that the Yankees offer, as well as both Red Sox offers [Lester offer, Ellsbury offer] were far and away better than what the Mets offered and the Twins eventually took. Being in a bad position, as Gammons has alluded to on ESPN isn't the point. He had three better offers, and overplayed his hand. Smith has now edged Boras as idiot of the 2008 off-season.

[schillingouttheks]

I think you also have to add this to the Twins being losers...the fact that if they had just kept Santana, their rotation would have been something to deal with. Let's not forget, they get Liriano back.

[Mr Crunchy]

carl pohlad is a douchebag

[Paradisecity]

Stupid, stupid move. They would have gotten a 1st and a sandwich for him at the end of the year and they traded him for THESE guys?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Stupid' date=' stupid move. They would have gotten a 1st and a sandwich for him at the end of the year and they traded him for THESE guys?[/quote']

 

From BP chat yesterday:

 

Rany Jazayerli: Someone should take the draft data that I published a few years ago and use it to come up with an expected value for a Type A free agent, i.e. the expected value of the draft picks that come from a Type A free agent leaving. We'd have to figure out where those picks usually come in the draft - you're guaranteed a supplemental first rounder (about pick #35), but the other pick could be as high as #16, and as low as the middle of the second round.

 

My guess is that the PECOTA expected future values of Gomez/Guerra/Mulvey/Humber would exceed the value of two draft picks. But add in a season's worth of Santana, and you might very well come out ahead by keeping Johan around. You can always change your mind in July.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=422

 

Note that he's not mentioned salary, just player values: if you include the high salary that Santana would earn in 2008, it definitely shifts in favor of making a trade, whether now or in July. (One could check that using MORP figures when PECOTA comes out in a few days.)

 

It's not that the trade was worse than keeping Santana, it's that the trade was so much worse than what the Twins could have done had they traded Santana in December. :dunno:

[26 to 6]

also interesting to note when discussing the Yankees in this equation, is that they could have had Santana WITHOUT giving up Hughes as Smith called Cash on Monday and offered Santana for Melky, Kennedy, and another prospect. My main objection to getting Santana was giving up Hughes..Melky too, but mainly Hughes. If the Yankee rotation fails to succeed this year it may ABSOLUTELY cost Ca$h his job...

 

http://www.northjersey.com/sports/mets/Yankees_played_a_big_hand_in_allowing_the_Mets_to_complete_a_trade_for_Johan_Santana.html

[He Hate Me]

also interesting to note when discussing the Yankees in this equation, is that they could have had Santana WITHOUT giving up Hughes as Smith called Cash on Monday and offered Santana for Melky, Kennedy, and another prospect. My main objection to getting Santana was giving up Hughes..Melky too, but mainly Hughes. If the Yankee rotation fails to succeed this year it may ABSOLUTELY cost Ca$h his job...

 

http://www.northjersey.com/sports/mets/Yankees_played_a_big_hand_in_allowing_the_Mets_to_complete_a_trade_for_Johan_Santana.html

 

wait we had a chance to get Johan for Ian and Melky and we didn't pull the trigger??????

[das11209]

wait we had a chance to get Johan for Ian and Melky and we didn't pull the trigger??????

 

Cashman loves the kids - and no it is not like Rep. Mark Foley loves the kids.

 

I believe report says it included another prospect so it depends who that prospect is. Even if it is Austin Jackson - he should have pulled the triggar.

[Gom]

What a dope. I am not high on Kennedy, and I'm not high on Melky. We could have wrapped up the AL East with this move, and we didn't because Cashman wants to say that he built the Yankees up from scratch. We should have fired his ass long ago. Kennedy might...just might....be a #3 pitcher...and that's a stretch.

 

Had I known that before my post, I would have put the Yankees in the position of BIG LOSERS.

 

What a dope.

[jacksonianmarch]

I read that too. Melky, Kennedy and a lower level prospect (potentially Betances) for Santana. The one saving grace for Cashman in this one is that Hal was against this from the beginning as well strictly from a money standpoint. And as the yankees have seen, dealing away the farm for Johan is not necessarily in our best interests. Regardless, the fact that Hughes and Joba were out of it, makes this a bit more dicey. But, putting all your eggs in Johan's basket is a tough call, since he is a young pitcher with a lot of tread on the tires. And one injury could make him the highest paid bust in the game. In the end, we have to take a wait and see on this one.

[jacksonianmarch]

oh, and this isnt a deal to be evaluated after 2008. This is a deal best evaluated halfway through his 7-8 yr deal. If Johan gives 4 yrs of top production without injury, then this hurts us.

[He Hate Me]

I read that too. Melky' date=' Kennedy and a lower level prospect (potentially Betances) for Santana. The one saving grace for Cashman in this one is that Hal was against this from the beginning as well strictly from a money standpoint. And as the yankees have seen, dealing away the farm for Johan is not necessarily in our best interests. Regardless, the fact that Hughes and Joba were out of it, makes this a bit more dicey. But, putting all your eggs in Johan's basket is a tough call, since he is a young pitcher with a lot of tread on the tires. And one injury could make him the highest paid bust in the game. In the end, we have to take a wait and see on this one.[/quote']

 

if we hadn't signed A-Rod, we coulda given that money to Johan. then hal would have nothing to say about it, and we have money glaore coming off the books next year.

 

bah

[He Hate Me]

Cashman loves the kids - and no it is not like Rep. Mark Foley loves the kids.

 

I believe report says it included another prospect so it depends who that prospect is. Even if it is Austin Jackson - he should have pulled the triggar.

 

i dont care if it was Horne + jackson. he shoulda pulled the trigger.

[rician blast]

if we hadn't signed A-Rod' date=' we coulda given that money to Johan. [/quote']

 

You're not insinuating that the Yankees have grown payroll conscious, are you?

[Gom]

Jacko, are you nuts? This is the best pitcher in the game! This is like saying you don't want Angelina Jolie because she slept with Brad Pitt.

 

Kennedy will NEVER be as good as Santana is from this point forward. Ever. Melky is the most overrated CF in the AL.

 

Let me ask two questions here:

 

1) For Jacko: Do the Yankees beat the Guardians if we had the extra home game?

 

2) For Red Sox fans: Over the course of the regular season, does Santana in pinstripes make up the difference in the standings?

 

I think the answer to both is YES.

 

Cashman should be fired. NOW.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Jacko, are you nuts? This is the best pitcher in the game! This is like saying you don't want Angelina Jolie because she slept with Brad Pitt.

 

Kennedy will NEVER be as good as Santana is from this point forward. Ever. Melky is the most overrated CF in the AL.

 

Let me ask two questions here:

 

1) For Jacko: Do the Yankees beat the Guardians if we had the extra home game?

 

2) For Red Sox fans: Over the course of the regular season, does Santana in pinstripes make up the difference in the standings?

 

I think the answer to both is YES.

 

Cashman should be fired. NOW.

 

That is amazing (if true). The Yankees have a bit of a log-jam in the outfield. Abreu, Damon, and Matsui may be up in age but they are still very good players. You wouldn't lose...anything on offense really and perhaps a little defense. Either way its not a big downgrade in the outfield if you lost Melky Cabrera.

 

So Ian Kennedy for Johan Santana? Again who cares about the third prospect since it's not Hughes or Chamberlain. You have to be joking. Thats a weak group of prospects for the best pitcher in the game and I believe it because the Mets didn't exactly give up the world for him.

 

The Yankees with a Santana, Wang, Pettite rotation would have been difficult to contend with. Then you only have to count on 1 or 2 of the kids being able to pan out. Instead you better hope they all contribute in a big way to have any success this season.

[26 to 6]

Cashman loves the kids - and no it is not like Rep. Mark Foley loves the kids.

 

I believe report says it included another prospect so it depends who that prospect is. Even if it is Austin Jackson - he should have pulled the triggar.

I see what you're saying, but no way we would have traded both Melky and Jackson. But even still, despite my favorable feelings towards Melky, there could have been no complaining if that trade went down. Doesn't matter at this poing though, I'm fine with what we have. Santana would have been nice, and so would have been his paycheck..so either way it doesn't make much of a difference. Granted making a move of that magnitude would have more than likely made us the favorites in not only the AL East but probably the AL all together, but I feel we can absolutely compete with the Beaneaters as is.

[Gom]

I would have traded Jackson, Kennedy, Melky, and anyone else they wanted. You guys keep falling in love with players who, statistically speaking, do not pan out.

 

The truth is, the Red Sox dropped the ball as well. I am making an assumption here, but I can't see them dropping the demand for just the Yankees. If you had to have given up either Lester or Ellsbury, and you didn't do the deal, it's almost as bad.

 

Your rotation would have looked like this:

 

Beckett

Santana

Matsuzaka

Schilling

Buchholz

 

There was no space for Lester anyways. Wakefield is your back up. Unreal. Cashman and Theo should be infected with the Cordella virus, circa

24" season 3.

 

Lester, most favorably, has been compared to Pettitte. Pettitte is no Santana. What the hell are these guys thinking?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I would have traded Jackson, Kennedy, Melky, and anyone else they wanted. You guys keep falling in love with players who, statistically speaking, do not pan out.

 

The truth is, the Red Sox dropped the ball as well. I am making an assumption here, but I can't see them dropping the demand for just the Yankees. If you had to have given up either Lester or Ellsbury, and you didn't do the deal, it's almost as bad.

 

Your rotation would have looked like this:

 

Beckett

Santana

Matsuzaka

Schilling

Buchholz

 

There was no space for Lester anyways. Wakefield is your back up. Unreal. Cashman and Theo should be infected with the Cordella virus, circa

24" season 3.

 

Lester, most favorably, has been compared to Pettitte. Pettitte is no Santana. What the hell are these guys thinking?

 

Difference is the Red Sox won the World Series while basically underachieving.

 

Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp didn't perform to expectations on offense. Obviously David Ortiz and Manny put up good numbers but short of what we are accustomed to.

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka had an up and down year. Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling spent plenty of time on the DL. Jon Lester was doing everything he could to get up to par with others after having an entire offseason recovering from cancer.

 

Point is...they don't need Johan Santana to win the World Series again and are favored to win the AL East. They will have more rookies coming up to make an impact this season and many of the players from the 2007 team should have a better performance in 2008.

 

The Red Sox have the team to win 100 games. The Yankees are old and short on experience in the rotation (not to mention extremely lacking in depth). The bullpen is thin and we are talking about Kei Igawa, Mike Mussina, and Ian Kennedy fighting for a rotation spot. Assuming Joba is in the rotation.

[das11209]

I would have traded Jackson, Kennedy, Melky, and anyone else they wanted. You guys keep falling in love with players who, statistically speaking, do not pan out.

 

The truth is, the Red Sox dropped the ball as well. I am making an assumption here, but I can't see them dropping the demand for just the Yankees. If you had to have given up either Lester or Ellsbury, and you didn't do the deal, it's almost as bad.

 

Your rotation would have looked like this:

 

Beckett

Santana

Matsuzaka

Schilling

Buchholz

 

There was no space for Lester anyways. Wakefield is your back up. Unreal. Cashman and Theo should be infected with the Cordella virus, circa

24" season 3.

 

Lester, most favorably, has been compared to Pettitte. Pettitte is no Santana. What the hell are these guys thinking?

 

 

I agree with you to some extent. I don't give a rat's ass about Lester if I get a Santana. And unlike most Sox fan who are high on Coco - I think he is at best a late innings replacement. I would have been more concerned about loosing Lowrie( hopefully he kicks Lugo in the ass) or Masterson. But I would have pulled the trigger with the Lester package.

 

 

But no way it is as bad as Cashman's f***-up. He needed Santana in front of those kids and getting Santana without giving up Hughes or Joba is such a no brainer.

[Cityofchampions33]

And unlike most Sox fan who are high on Coco - I think he is at best a late innings replacement.

 

I don't have to use 2 hands for the Sox fans I know that prove your statement above

[Gom]

Difference is the Red Sox won the World Series while basically underachieving.

 

Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp didn't perform to expectations on offense. Obviously David Ortiz and Manny put up good numbers but short of what we are accustomed to.

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka had an up and down year. Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling spent plenty of time on the DL. Jon Lester was doing everything he could to get up to par with others after having an entire offseason recovering from cancer.

 

Point is...they don't need Johan Santana to win the World Series again and are favored to win the AL East. They will have more rookies coming up to make an impact this season and many of the players from the 2007 team should have a better performance in 2008.

 

The Red Sox have the team to win 100 games. The Yankees are old and short on experience in the rotation (not to mention extremely lacking in depth). The bullpen is thin and we are talking about Kei Igawa, Mike Mussina, and Ian Kennedy fighting for a rotation spot. Assuming Joba is in the rotation.

There was doubt that the Red Sox would even make the playoffs this time last year. You had finished 3rd behind us and the Blue Jays.

 

The season is long, my friend. Remember the axiom...you're never as good as you look when you win, and you're never as bad as you look when you lose. Who would have thought that Pedroia would be as good as he was? That Lowell would have an MVP caliber season? That Beckett would rebound to a Cy Young caliber season from an atrocious 2006? That your rotation would stay literally injury-free all season?

 

The gap between the Yankees, Red Sox, Guardians, and Tigers is very small. One of those teams is out. Which one?

 

Your team underachieved? Get real. I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't make the playoffs. I wouldn't be all that surprised if we didn't either. The only team that would surprise me at not making the playoffs is the Angels and the Mets.

[Cityofchampions33]

There was doubt that the Red Sox would even make the playoffs this time last year. You had finished 3rd behind us and the Blue Jays.

 

The season is long, my friend. Remember the axiom...you're never as good as you look when you win, and you're never as bad as you look when you lose. Who would have thought that Pedroia would be as good as he was? That Lowell would have an MVP caliber season? That Beckett would rebound to a Cy Young caliber season from an atrocious 2006? That your rotation would stay literally injury-free all season?

 

The gap between the Yankees, Red Sox, Guardians, and Tigers is very small. One of those teams is out. Which one?

 

Your team underachieved? Get real. I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't make the playoffs. I wouldn't be all that surprised if we didn't either. The only team that would surprise me at not making the playoffs is the Angels and the Mets.

 

Agreed in the first part, but Schill, and Wake (?) missed time last year. Also anyone who says they expected those numbers posted by Lowell and Pedroia is lying through their teeth, especially given Lowell's age, and Pedroia's inexpereince. Beckett you have more of a case to believe he'd rebound, but only to a certain extent. And yes I'd say we underacheived in terms of record, Gagne cost us a few wins, and in just not reaching expectations were Manny, Tek, Crisp, Drew, Lugo, very key components to this team when one was the opening day lead-off hitter and another batted 4th spot all year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gom, if the report is accurate, then I am a bit disappointed.

[He Hate Me]

Post is reporting that the Twins asked for Wang and Kennedy to replace Hughes. If that's true, then I'm not sure how i feel about it.

[jacksonianmarch]

The NY Times is reporting that the final offer from the Twins was Kennedy, Cabrera, Wang and Marquez. Nothing like taking 2SP's out of our rotation and our starting CFer. Wang was a dealbreaker IMO.

[Gom]

Does this make any sense to you guys? They asked for Wang and Kennedy, and settled for crap from the Mets?

 

Did it ever occur to you that this is what the Yankees FO is planting?

 

How do you possibly compare what the Yankees were told to offer as opposed to what the Twins took from the Mets? Are you going to hear the Red Sox had to offer Pedroia and Lester?

 

Get real. The NY times, when it comes to news in New York is unparalleled. When it comes to sports, they are clueless.

[Gom]

Here is something that I am starting to believe happened....and that my tiny little brain believes, lol. Santana going to the Mets....was agreed upon by the Yankees and Red Sox.

 

Wait a second before you dismiss this off-hand. Think about this.

 

Theo and Cashman are reputed to be friends and get along. They just hung out together for some official function just before the Santana deal.

 

Is it inconceivable that the following happened?

 

Cash: Theo, I got a deal for you. I don't want to give up my farm system for this guy. Do you?

Theo: Not really. I think my kids are better than yours.

Cash: Funny, I was thinking the same about mine. So here's my deal. Let's both pass, and let him go to the Mets. My feeling is that Santana is going to blow his arm out sometime during the extension he wants, and then I'm screwed. However, with Hank breathing down my neck, I won't have a job if you get him.

Theo: I'm still listening Cash...but what if they drop their demands?

Cash: They will. They'll probably come to me first. I'll decline, then you do the same. Let the Mets tie up their money for years, and kill their payroll. After all, three years from now, we'd both be better if we didn't make this deal.

Theo: Sounds good to me. You're gonna get killed in the press.

Cash: Not if I'm holding the 2008 World Series trophy.

Theo: What if I don't let you? Ok...agreed. Let's see who can build a team better from the ground up.

Cash: Good..now what?

Theo: Hmm...wanna hit up 49th street and find us some hookers?

Cash: Only if their Asian.

Theo: That's what I'm talking about...let's go, I'll drive.

 

I really believe this coulda happened.

[redsoxrules]

Does this make any sense to you guys? They asked for Wang and Kennedy, and settled for crap from the Mets?

 

Did it ever occur to you that this is what the Yankees FO is planting?

 

How do you possibly compare what the Yankees were told to offer as opposed to what the Twins took from the Mets? Are you going to hear the Red Sox had to offer Pedroia and Lester?

 

Get real. The NY times, when it comes to news in New York is unparalleled. When it comes to sports, they are clueless.

 

I have to agree with Gom here... thats BS theres no way that they would asked for wang and kennedy and then turn around and settle for what the mets gave them

[BSN07]

May not be word for word, but it's possible...