The 2008 Red Sox Lineup

[Gom]

Look, nothing wrong with analysis in general, but I base it on what I see as well. How players respond to how their being pitched, how pitchers adjust to their declining velocities, etc.

 

For example, Cano. A good player, with a world of talent. Learning patience at the plate, which will give him better pitches to hit. I disagree with the analysis. Completely.

 

Giambi. Does it take into effect his unwillingness to use all of the field, and that his stats were undeniably helped by his usage of P.E.D.s? That his bat speed has slowed? No. I would be SHOCKED if he had a good season, due to his diminished skills, his inability to stay healthy, and his lack of "vitamins".

 

Abreu...massive decrease. Why? A solid second half, great eye, good batspeed. What exactly do they see that causes them to view this? Not all 30+ year ball players are the same.

 

Cabrera. Unless he elevates the ball, and shows that he can lay off off-speed pitches away from the right side of the plate, he won't be on the Yankees the following season. Improvement on all three? Why, cause he's young? Good, but not a great reason.

 

I'm not even touching the Sox.

 

Keep in mind, these things tell you the trend. However, they don't tell you the full story.

 

Is anyone here willing to bet me on Cano? I say he ends up with a better year OPS wise than last year. Your "stats" say no way.

 

My toilet paper has more value than these reports.

 

Secondly, I strongly disagree with the "neutral" statement of projections from Bill James. Last I heard, he was employed by some baseball team. Not sure who, though.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Look, nothing wrong with analysis in general, but I base it on what I see as well. How players respond to how their being pitched, how pitchers adjust to their declining velocities, etc.

 

For example, Cano. A good player, with a world of talent. Learning patience at the plate, which will give him better pitches to hit. I disagree with the analysis. Completely.

 

Giambi. Does it take into effect his unwillingness to use all of the field, and that his stats were undeniably helped by his usage of P.E.D.s? That his bat speed has slowed? No. I would be SHOCKED if he had a good season, due to his diminished skills, his inability to stay healthy, and his lack of "vitamins".

 

Abreu...massive decrease. Why? A solid second half, great eye, good batspeed. What exactly do they see that causes them to view this? Not all 30+ year ball players are the same.

 

Cabrera. Unless he elevates the ball, and shows that he can lay off off-speed pitches away from the right side of the plate, he won't be on the Yankees the following season. Improvement on all three? Why, cause he's young? Good, but not a great reason.

 

OK, good to know your thoughts.

 

My toilet paper has more value than these reports.

 

You should try selling your toilet paper. My understanding is that these reports support individuals' efforts to make considerable money regarding baseball.

 

Of course, you might find your subjective opinion on that subject unsupported by facts...just as your opinions in other areas might or might not be correct.

 

Secondly, I strongly disagree with the "neutral" statement of projections from Bill James. Last I heard, he was employed by some baseball team. Not sure who, though.

 

The "Bill James" line is from the Bill James Annual, which is the work of several contributors these days. FWIW, the Bill James projections were quite favorable to the Yankees on the whole...would you like to see the Yankees projections from just CHONE and Marcel?

[ORS]

Secondly' date=' I strongly disagree with the "neutral" statement of projections from Bill James. Last I heard, he was employed by some baseball team. Not sure who, though.[/quote']

I see this a lot from uninformed Yankee fans.

 

This is a guy who's legacy is starting the latest statistical revolution. He's an admitted Royals fan from Kansas (JHB's name pays homage to that). What he has done for modern baseball statistics outweighs anything he's done for the Red Sox. Do you think he would risk losing the substantial credibility he's gained, credibility that has lead to his current position, in order to pump up projections for the team he works for? What purpose does that serve? It only introduces a stonger likelihood for error, which would result in bad projections and threaten his position. Think.

 

No, these projection systems aren't biased toward one uniform or another. Hell, he doesn't even run them anymore. The formulas used by others in the calcs were created before his employment with the Sox, and they are based on data from all teams. There is no "cosmological constant" for Sox players only.

[jacksonianmarch]

or, if he were to boost the projections of his own players, they could be considered more valuable a commodity for trade.

[ORS]

Sorry, not buying it. His projections would lose appeal over time as his projections for his players were consistently overstated. That's without even addressing the fact that his projection system was established prior to his employment in Boston.

 

Tinfoil hat time.

 

http://rightvoices.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/tinfoil-hat.jpg

[Gom]

I have the utmost respect for Bill James. He has revolutionized the way people look at baseball, and brought mathematical analysis to a different level. He is as much a Hall of Famer as any executive, and more than most.

 

However, due to his being employed by the Red Sox [which is an absolutely brilliant move by the Red Sox FO], I do question his objectiveness. I would question his objectiveness if he was employed by ANY team, even if it was the Yankees. His employer does write the checks, after all.

 

As for the analysis, I have no problem with analysis, and value it in most cases. However, baseball is not an exact science. Factors outside of baseball do have an effect. Not all players age the same, or learn to adjust the same, or use PEDs or whatever.

 

Now, I don't analyze baseball for a living. However, I look at the reports, and base what I feel as well on what I see. It's not exact, but it works for me. As someone who watches over 120 Yankee games a year, I see the slumps and the hot streaks. I look at how a batter hits. How he's being pitched to. How he adjusts. How a pitcher locates his pitches.

 

I admit, it's not the most scientific way of doing things. It's also my opinion. It says to me Matsui is going to suck. Drew is going to improve. Jeter is starting the slow decline. Manny will continue to cheat on the breaking stuff away, which will leave him vulnerable inside. Schilling will finally start to get hit hard. Kennedy will shine, Hughes will have some growing pains. Ortiz continues to be the new Anti-Christ. Giambi will be horrendous. Damon will rebound slightly. You won't even notice Abreu...but at the end of the year, he'll have excellent numbers.

 

Take it for what it's worth.

[ORS]

All well and good, Gom. You are entitled to your opinion, and I'm not challenging that entitlement. It was you, however, who brought up the conflict of interest when JHB was making his point with James' projections. Challenging his objectivity there was wrong, and had you known the facts, that his system is run by others and that it was established prior to his employment in Boston, you wouldn't have done so.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sorry, not buying it. His projections would lose appeal over time as his projections for his players were consistently overstated. That's without even addressing the fact that his projection system was established prior to his employment in Boston.

 

Tinfoil hat time.

 

http://rightvoices.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/tinfoil-hat.jpg

 

I never said I believe the theory, just that the possibility exists.