The 2008 Red Sox Lineup

[Jayhawk Bill]

The CHONE projections are out.

 

For those of you who don't know, the CHONE projections are one of the complete sets that one can acquire to gauge projections. They're free; they're roughly as good as the Marcels, the ZiPS, or the Bill James projections, and they're almost as good as PECOTA. They tend to underestimate leaders' years because they regress to the mean to account for injuries, but every serious projection system does that. You can find the CHONE projections here:

 

http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html

 

I took the CHONE projections to see what the Boston lineup this year might look like. I made these assumptions:

 

1) Terry Francona will start the season using this batting order:

 

1) Pedroia

2) Youkilis

3) Ortiz

4) Ramirez

5) Drew

6) Lowell

7) Varitek

8) Crisp

9) Lugo

 

2) When any of these players aren't playing, their replacements will hit in their batting order spot;

 

3) The Depth Chart at http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bos reflects the actual way that players will be used;

 

4) The backup at RF is Brandon Moss, the backup at 1B is Chris Carter, the first backup at DH is Jacoby Ellsbury (actually playing LF while Manny DHes) and the second backup at DH is Chris Carter, the second backup at SS/2B is Jed Lowrie, and the second backup at 3B is Chris Carter (actually playing 1B while Youk plays 3B );

 

5) The team gets 4,374 outs (27 outs x 162 games), and each batting order position gets 20 more outs than the one behind it;

 

6) Pitchers don't hit.

 

Using these assumptions for a moment (and we'll come back to them), here are the 2008 Red Sox:

 

[table]Last | Batting Average | OPS | HR | RBI | Runs

Varitek | 0.249 | 0.770 | 16 | 57 | 64

Youkilis | 0.272 | 0.816 | 15 | 63 | 97

Pedroia | 0.299 | 0.805 | 8 | 58 | 87

Lowell | 0.286 | 0.801 | 18 | 81 | 78

Lugo | 0.267 | 0.720 | 8 | 54 | 65

Ramirez | 0.284 | 0.909 | 27 | 88 | 87

Crisp | 0.278 | 0.759 | 10 | 64 | 60

Drew | 0.273 | 0.837 | 15 | 75 | 76

Ortiz | 0.301 | 1.012 | 39 | 115 | 116

Mirabelli | 0.212 | 0.663 | 7 | 19 | 21

Carter | 0.269 | 0.760 | 11 | 53 | 50

Cora | 0.258 | 0.697 | 4 | 31 | 32

Ellsbury | 0.299 | 0.771 | 6 | 57 | 87

Moss | 0.260 | 0.736 | 4 | 26 | 25

Lowrie | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1 | 9 | 9[/table]

 

I don't know about you, but I don't see anything too outrageous there. Maybe 10 home runs for Coco Crisp is a little high, even assuming a starting role. That's really pretty trivial on this scale, though.

 

Here's the deal: if you add up those last two columns, you get 1043 RBI and a whopping 1180 runs scored. That averages to 1111 runs scored by the team.

 

Have we overestimated?

 

I can find one big thing missing in the assumptions: GIDP. Outs are used not only by batters but also by baserunners, usually in GIDPs. That accounts for another 150-200 outs, enough to drop these figures for the team by 5%, with the bench players losing the playing time.

 

But that's still a team that scores over 1,000 runs.

 

Here's a list of reasons for optimism regarding the 2008 Boston Red Sox at the plate:

 

1) JD Drew and Julio Lugo are very likely to exceed their 2007 performances. For technical reasons, so is Doug Mirabelli.

 

2) Jacoby Ellsbury will get more playing time.

 

3) Manny is in his contract year.

 

4) Papi has been playing hurt for the past year and a half--if he's better, watch out.

 

5) Chris Carter can flat-out hit.

 

Here are reasons for pessimism:

 

1) Mike Lowell won't repeat his extraordinary 2007.

 

That 2007 team scored 867 runs. Eric Hinske, Kevin Cash and Wily Mo Pena combined to hit barely over .200 in almost 400 at bats, burning a whole lot of outs. The only player listed here who hits around .200 is Doug Mirabelli, and he still hits roughly 100 points higher than Kevin Cash. Yes, injuries happen, but serious unforeseen injuries result in playing time for Ellsbury, Moss, Carter, Lowrie, and Kottaras, all of whom can reach base.

 

***

 

I suspect that we're underestimating the offensive potential of the 2008 Boston Red Sox. Even if these numbers are 10% too high instead of 5% too high, this could still be a 1,000-run team.

[BSN07]

Crisp will only be starting in CF if Ellsbury is traded. I think Francona will give Jacoby the Pedroia treatment this yr.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Crisp will only be starting in CF if Ellsbury is traded. I think Francona will give Jacoby the Pedroia treatment this yr.

 

I hope that you're right!

 

As an aside, serving as backup LF/CF/DH (again, with the assumption that Manny would really DH and that Ellsbury would play LF) gave Ellsbury "full time" status in this evaluation. If Crisp were the backup, I'm not sure that the reverse would be true: Moss would fill both corner spots, I'd expect.

[Taliesin]

GDTRFB...

[Taliesin]

"Somehow it seemed as though the farm had grown richer without making the animals themselves any richer— except, of course, for the pigs and the dogs."

 

Roll away the dew.

[Jayhawk Bill]

GDTRFB...

 

"Going Down The Road Feeling Bad?"

 

"Somehow it seemed as though the farm had grown richer without making the animals themselves any richer— except, of course, for the pigs and the dogs."

 

Roll away the dew.

 

OK...

 

From the Orwell reference I believe that you're suggesting that a team so similar to last year's should have similar offense, and from the "Franklin's Tower" quote I gather a caution against hubris. Other lyrics from "Franklin's Tower" by the Dead:

 

God save the child that rings that bell

It may have one good ring, baby, you cant tell

 

Could be. :dunno:

 

Pardon my search for reasons for optimism as the snow and ice piles up in my driveway and my hot stove (I've really got one) strains to warm my home. I look at this and see cause for hope; certainly, though, we've all lived through past heartbreak of expectations dashed as Red Sox fans.

 

If I've misinterpreted your allusions, well, sorry. At least I tried.

[jacksonianmarch]

As with every yr since 03, as Papi and Manny go, so go the sox. Last season, Manny was rather inconsistent and wasnt himself for most of the yr and hence why the sox offense looked human for good chunks of the yr. If not for the freak contribution of Mike Lowell and the unexpected contributions of Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis, then the sox wouldnt have been top 5. If Manny finds a way to stay on the field and puts up his typical .300/35/120, then the sox will be fine. Papi is another mild question mark coming back from knee surgery, but I expect him to show typical Papi power next yr. I did not expect Lowell to have a big offensive yr if he came to us in FA, so you cant think I expect much out of Lowell this yr. Likely .280 15 and 80 which is just fine for a stellar defensive 3b. The big question is if Drew can pick up what Lowell will likely be unable to repeat. By the end of the yr, Drew was hitting well, but he still didnt have the kind of lift that you would expect from a guy with his history of power. Either way, the same question marks exist, but I'd agree with talies, same s*** different yr. You'll still have a top 5 offense.

[Taliesin]

Allusions? I'm just Ramblin" on Rose'...pay no attention to the woman behind the curtain.

 

God save the child that rings that bell

It may have one good ring, baby, you cant tell

 

Actually that was a Hunter interpretation of the great Billie Holiday..God Bless the Child Who's Got His Own. ....Mama may have, Papa may have

 

Are you implying that I'm not being serious and literal w/ my interpretation of what is going on in our little baseball cosmos and I'm having fun w/ it a little bit. Sir, we should take this outside.

[Taliesin]

I'm also fleeing the ice and the hot stove such as it is down here and going where the weather suits my clothes...don't want to be treated this old way. 10 days in the V.I. and y'all may never hear from me again. I'm mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. Well, not really, I'm just cold.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I'm also fleeing the ice and the hot stove such as it is down here and going where the weather suits my clothes...don't want to be treated this old way. 10 days in the V.I. and y'all may never hear from me again. I'm mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. Well' date=' not really, I'm just cold.[/quote']

 

Enjoy your vacation!

 

Be careful if you venture away from the hotel site compounds or the very heart of Charlotte Amalie--my memory is that crime is rampant, especially in the semi-circle surrounding the twenty well-patrolled city blocks surrounding the cruise ship landings in Charlotte Amalie.

[Jayhawk Bill]

As with every yr since 03' date=' as Papi and Manny go, so go the sox. Last season, Manny was rather inconsistent and wasnt himself for most of the yr and hence why the sox offense looked human for good chunks of the yr. If not for the freak contribution of Mike Lowell and the unexpected contributions of Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis, then the sox wouldnt have been top 5. If Manny finds a way to stay on the field and puts up his typical .300/35/120, then the sox will be fine. Papi is another mild question mark coming back from knee surgery, but I expect him to show typical Papi power next yr. I did not expect Lowell to have a big offensive yr if he came to us in FA, so you cant think I expect much out of Lowell this yr. Likely .280 15 and 80 which is just fine for a stellar defensive 3b. The big question is if Drew can pick up what Lowell will likely be unable to repeat. By the end of the yr, Drew was hitting well, but he still didnt have the kind of lift that you would expect from a guy with his history of power. Either way, the same question marks exist, but I'd agree with talies, same s*** different yr. You'll still have a top 5 offense.[/quote']

 

Using the same method, your 2008 New York Yankees:

 

[table]Last | Batting Average | OPS | HR | RBI | Runs

Posada | 0.277 | 0.835 | 19 | 71 | 80

Giambi | 0.246 | 0.866 | 21 | 59 | 68

Cano | 0.305 | 0.826 | 17 | 84 | 77

Rodriguez | 0.296 | 0.976 | 41 | 115 | 118

Jeter | 0.299 | 0.806 | 14 | 71 | 106

Damon | 0.275 | 0.764 | 14 | 61 | 95

Cabrera | 0.278 | 0.739 | 9 | 66 | 72

Abreu | 0.268 | 0.797 | 16 | 83 | 99

Matsui | 0.282 | 0.838 | 19 | 75 | 71

Molina | 0.240 | 0.635 | 2 | 9 | 8

Duncan | 0.235 | 0.753 | 24 | 63 | 61

Betemit | 0.254 | 0.767 | 11 | 31 | 35[/table]

 

890 runs, 788 RBI. Taking a mean and deducting 5% for GIDPs, that's 797 runs. The same formula yields 1,056 runs for the Red Sox.

 

You know, I'd post "Same s***, different year," but that doesn't appear to be true. The Yankees are a bunch of aging stars who, on the whole, overperformed at the plate in 2007. The Red Sox are a little younger and their young talent is more OBP-centric than the Yankees' young talent.

 

The CHONE projections suggest that the 2008 Boston Red Sox may outscore the 2008 Yankees by 250-odd runs. I can't fault the numbers, but my gut tells me that the margin will be less. In any case, I regard the Yankees' recent advantage over the Red Sox in hitting to be past, whether the margin is over 200 runs or just a handful of runs--Boston appears decisively better offensively.

[jacksonianmarch]

Those projections have been about as wrong as they could be the past few yrs. IIRC, the same theory predicted low 800s last season and they missed by about 150 runs. In terms of offense, I'd expect..

 

Posada to have a sharp decline from his prior numbers back to career norms.

Giambi to have a significant increase from last yr since he was seriously injured.

Cano to have a significant increase from last yr since he had that 3 mo. stretch of suckitude

Jeter to be about the same

ARod to be a bit worse than last yr, but still a .300 40HR 130RBI guy

Matsui to be significantly better since he was hurt for parts of the yr and still had 100RBI

Damon to be better than last yr, mostly because he had a horrific start

Abreu to be similar to last yr but more consistent.

Melky to be slightly better than last yr

And Duncan and Betemit being wild cards against lefties.

 

Take a look at the perfect storm that hit our offense last season and still resulted in a 960 run season.

Matsui hurt his hammy in the opening series and missed a couple weeks. Then he hurt his knee in august and was awful closing the yr

Abreu hurt his oblique in ST and was terrible to the AS break. When he finally warmed up, he was one of the deadliest hitters in baseball

Cano uncharacteristically could not hit for the first 3 months of the yr. He did end up at .300, but the prior yr he hit .340 and had it not been for the slump, he would have been there again.

Damon hurt his calves in the opening series and wasnt the same for the first half of the yr, refusing to take DL time. By the time we had help in the OF and at the DH slot with Betemit and Duncan, he was able to take the time needed to get healthy and contributed significantly.

Giambi was lights out in April, but tore plantar fascia in May and wasnt the same. He rushed back and was awful. His injury and that surgery typically takes 6-12 months to fully heal from. Expect a resurgent Giambi.

Jeter battled ailments all season long.

Melky bookended a solid 4 month stint with an april and september of futility.

 

Now I understand that this yankee team is old, and injuries happen. But the amount and the timing of the injuries last yr was pretty horrendous. And I know that as age creeps up, so does unpredictability. But when these guys were healthy, they mashed. So they didnt really show decline in their abilities, more a decline in staying healthy. Hence, the added depth for this yr should help. I still expect a mid 900s run scored regardless what that stupid theory offers.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Those projections have been about as wrong as they could be the past few yrs.

 

Link? :dunno:

 

Here's my link:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564

 

Which shows that the CHONE projections for hitters were second-best of the major systems last year in average error, outperforming ESPN, Marcels, Rototimes, Rotowire, The Hardball Times and ZiPS. CHONE was third in correlation coefficient and first in Root Mean Square Error, placing it at or near the top in every category.

[example1]

As with every yr since 03' date=' as Papi and Manny go, so go the sox. Last season, Manny was rather inconsistent and wasnt himself for most of the yr and hence why the sox offense looked human for good chunks of the yr. If not for the freak contribution of Mike Lowell and the unexpected contributions of Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis, then the sox wouldnt have been top 5. If Manny finds a way to stay on the field and puts up his typical .300/35/120, then the sox will be fine. Papi is another mild question mark coming back from knee surgery, but I expect him to show typical Papi power next yr. I did not expect Lowell to have a big offensive yr if he came to us in FA, so you cant think I expect much out of Lowell this yr. Likely .280 15 and 80 which is just fine for a stellar defensive 3b. The big question is if Drew can pick up what Lowell will likely be unable to repeat. By the end of the yr, Drew was hitting well, but he still didnt have the kind of lift that you would expect from a guy with his history of power. Either way, the same question marks exist, but I'd agree with talies, same s*** different yr. You'll still have a top 5 offense.[/quote']

 

I think the big question is not any of this stuff about Manny and Lowell and Drew... the big question is the Sox pitching. They won last year because of a tremendous run differential and a top notch pitching staff. Of course, they also had Papi and Manny. :thumbsup:

 

Pitching, pitching pitching. A solid offense with top-notch pitching will be a hard team to beat.

[jacksonianmarch]

no doubt. The sox have their ace in Beckett, but questions about whether he can do it again and stay healthy are certainly there and plausible.

 

Which DiceK is the real DicK?

 

Does Schill have one more yr in the tank?

 

Wake is wake, but can he stay healthy.

 

After that, health and inexperience in Lester and Buchholz create other questions as well.

 

I'll tell ya what though, they should be alright in this department.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Those projections have been about as wrong as they could be the past few yrs. IIRC, the same theory predicted low 800s last season and they missed by about 150 runs.

 

...

 

I still expect a mid 900s run scored regardless what that stupid theory offers.

 

I waited until I was sure that you'd seen my request for citation regarding your assertion that my source was flawed before addressing the part of your post referring to my research as "stupid."

 

See, jacksonianmarch, you're blowing smoke. You're claiming that my sources are wrong, and when tasked to prove your words, you ignore the fact that you can't back up your words. Where I come from, you'd have two choices: you either acknowledge your mistake, or you explain why you're right. You've done neither. You've insulted my work then run away.

 

But I'm a Red Sox fan. Perhaps our ethical standards are different than those of Yankees fans. :dunno:

 

And, perhaps, our grasp of reality is better...I readily acknowledge that Boston might well fall a bit short of what one of the respected systems suggests. You claim an extra 150-odd runs scored for the Yankees over neutral, respected projections and call those opposing you "stupid."

 

***

 

I'd prefer not to be insulted, nor to insult others. If posters--even regular posters--choose to lower the tone, though, I'm forced to stand up for my beliefs.

 

Jacksonianmarch, if you disagree with me, I'll respect that. If you can show where I've erred, I'm eager to learn and to do better in the future. You've insulted my research, though, and you can't verify your own claims. That action I do not respect.

[jacksonianmarch]

For 07, our starters were CHONE predicted for 800R prior to the 5% alteration. And they were 160 off.

[Jayhawk Bill]

For 07' date=' our starters were CHONE predicted for 800R prior to the 5% alteration. And they were 160 off.[/quote']

 

Two points:

 

1) I'm figuring the entire team, not just the starters. Every out that it was projected that starters wouldn't use was assigned to the bench players by respective position. If you take just the 2007 starters at each position, determined by BR, you get this:

 

[table]Position | Name | Runs | RBI

C | #Jorge Posada | 91 | 90

1B | *Doug Mientkiewicz | 26 | 24

2B | *Robinson Cano | 93 | 97

3B | Alex Rodriguez | 143 | 156

SS | Derek Jeter | 102 | 73

LF | *Hideki Matsui | 100 | 103

CF | #Melky Cabrera | 66 | 73

RF | *Bobby Abreu | 123 | 101

DH | *Jason Giambi | 31 | 39[/table]

 

That's 775 runs and 756 RBI. If you substitute Damon for Minky, you get 842 runs and 771 RBI. CHONE projected 800 runs and 672 RBI from the nine starters...I see it as 42 runs off, not 150. Remember, also, that the 5% of outs expended on basepaths takes away plate appearances from bench players, not starters, who are limited by their health (which is already considered).

 

2) If you check the 2007 CHONE for Yankees bench players, they projected potential contributions from several bench players. In 2007, 12 position players other than starters contributed to the Yankees' scoring, with a half-dozen reaching double digits in RBIs. That's where the 160 runs you're not seeing come from, and that's why I credited Molina, Duncan and Betemit with over 800 PA in which to add to Yankees run totals in my use of the 2008 CHONE projections.

 

Take a look at the perfect storm that hit our offense last season and still resulted in a 960 run season.

Matsui hurt his hammy in the opening series and missed a couple weeks. Then he hurt his knee in august and was awful closing the yr

Abreu hurt his oblique in ST and was terrible to the AS break. When he finally warmed up, he was one of the deadliest hitters in baseball

Cano uncharacteristically could not hit for the first 3 months of the yr. He did end up at .300, but the prior yr he hit .340 and had it not been for the slump, he would have been there again.

Damon hurt his calves in the opening series and wasnt the same for the first half of the yr, refusing to take DL time. By the time we had help in the OF and at the DH slot with Betemit and Duncan, he was able to take the time needed to get healthy and contributed significantly.

Giambi was lights out in April, but tore plantar fascia in May and wasnt the same. He rushed back and was awful. His injury and that surgery typically takes 6-12 months to fully heal from. Expect a resurgent Giambi.

Jeter battled ailments all season long.

Melky bookended a solid 4 month stint with an april and september of futility.

 

OK, let's look at that "Perfect Storm:"

 

Matsui beat his projections by 63 Runs + RBI.

Abreu beat his projections by 36 Runs + RBI.

Cano beat his projections by 43 Runs + RBI.

Damon missed his projections by only 12 Runs + RBI.

Giambi missed his projections by almost 100 runs--but he only used up 254 at bats.

Melky beat his projections by 14 Runs + RBI.

Jeter exemplified Yankee Pride by matching his summed Runs + RBI projections exactly.

 

And, of course,

 

Posada beat his projections by 39 Runs + RBI and

Alex Rodriguez beat his projections by 79 Runs + RBI.

 

That's not a "Perfect Storm." That's one guy down, three at breakeven, and five significantly exceeding expectations. The only two guys you can reasonably expect to do better in 2008 are Melky and, maybe, Giambi. Most of that lineup looks to have overperformed in 2007 and set for a bit of a decline in 2008.

 

***

 

You can't have it both ways. Either you can try to claim that the system understates reasonable expectations, which makes the 2008 Red Sox candidates for greatest hitting team in MLB history, or you can claim that the system overstates expectations, which makes the 2008 Yankees candidates for the AL East cellar.

 

Or, hypothetically, you could accept that the 2008 Yankees are in for a challenge trying to match their 2007 hitting prowess, while the Red Sox look as if they may do much better.

 

Or you could call the system "stupid" because it didn't consider how well the Yankees' bench players would hit when it projected how well the Yankees' starters would hit, leaving the starters' projections 160 runs short of the ultimate team total...but that just doesn't seem to make much sense. :dunno:

[Gom]

The Sox will come down a bit to earth. You're never as good as you look when you win, and you're never as bad as you look when you lose.

 

Both teams are on the wrong side of 30 for the majority of their core players. This may be a year where only one team comes out of the AL East.

 

I doubt it though, lol.

 

Here is my prediction on key Sox players who will go up or down as compared to last year.

 

Up:

Pedroia [this kid has proven me wrong. Eckstein with better talent]

Lester [hopefully fully recovered]

f***ing Youkilis [i just hate this guy [i'd love him if he was on the Yankees though]]

Drew [can't be much worse, will adjust and be a solid contributor]

 

Same

Wakefield [this probably stays true until he joins the AARP]

Ortiz [all depends on health. He'll hit no matter what]

Paps [he really can't get any better]

 

Down

Beckett [although will be solid, very hard to recreate such a great season]

Manny [bat is slowing down, starting to show a weakness at breaking pitches low and away, a sign of cheating]

Varitek [normal decline for the classiest Red Sox of them all]

Schilling [Father Time moves on from Mussina to Curt]

 

No idea

Matsuzaka [Hideki....Nomo, or Irabu?]

Crisp [May not be on the team next year]

Ellsbury [Will be solid, but how good is he?]

Buchholz [Ditto]

[jacksonianmarch]

The only reason why matsui's projection was so low was due to a freak injury the previous yr, NOT because of a drop in performance. CHONE ratings are imperfect in that respect. Major injuries are not taken into account as significant deviations from the actual projection.

 

Couple things...

Matsui's projection is STILL hurt by him missing nearly an entire season, even though he proved last yr that he was unaffected by it.

Giambi missed half the yr as well and was never himself after the injury. If he comes back from the injury healed, which by now he should be, he will demolish that stupid projection.

 

And another thing. I dont know how they create all of the projections, but do they take into account the team around them too? Because a guy like Damon outperforming his projection in one of his worst career yrs is laughable. Regardless, the yankee offense is deeper with a deeper bench and more power throughout. It will bear out again and maybe next yr your computer system can be right. But this yr, it wont even be close.

[BSN07]

UP/:

Drew- If healthy, I expect better OBP, maybe slight increase in power.

Manny_From what I've heard hes going to be in great shape. I expect him to look more like the manny of old then last yrs version. But I don't expect him to be a 40 HR 130+RBI guy anymore.

Ellsbury- full season will increase most of his numbers besides avg.

Dice-K- Experience is key here, lower ERA, about the same for wins.

Lester- Hopefully healthy, more innings this season.

Lugo-such a bad yr O wise he could only be in the " UP" category

 

Same:

Pedroia- he set the bar hi, I expect close to the same with maybe a slight fall off in AVG.

Papi- Healthy hopefully, maybe a few more HR, but lose some with AVG/OBP

Paps- Consistancy, 30+saves and an ERA below 2.75.

Beckett- I can see Beckett producing on the same line as last season, or really close.

Youk- I don't see Youk getting that much better or worse.

 

Down:

Lowell- Obviously we should all expect to see a decline in his O, but nothing drastic.

Schilling- I thought of putting him in the same or up. It's said hes coming to camp in great shape. And knowing this yr is his last should drive him even more. But until he prooves healthy then I have to say slightly down for him.

Wake- Could put him in Same, but I don't see him duplicating his Win out put from last season.

Oki- Japan relievers have had a history of being figured out after a yr or so. He had a really good yr and set the bar hi, so a slight regression is not to hard to see.

 

 

I base all these off of the players general statistics for the upcoming season, AVG/OBP/OPS/HR/RBI/H/R/

WINS/ERA/K/IP/BB/S/WHIP

Defense

[Jayhawk Bill]

The only reason why matsui's projection was so low was due to a freak injury the previous yr' date=' NOT because of a drop in performance. CHONE ratings are imperfect in that respect. Major injuries are not taken into account as significant deviations from the actual projection.[/quote']

 

That's because major injuries so often herald the end of careers. It's not that CHONE or PECOTA or any other system is imperfect--it's that statisticians recognize the risk inherent in players returning from injury, while fans usually expect the players to rebound completely.

 

Couple things...

Matsui's projection is STILL hurt by him missing nearly an entire season, even though he proved last yr that he was unaffected by it.

Giambi missed half the yr as well and was never himself after the injury. If he comes back from the injury healed, which by now he should be, he will demolish that stupid projection.

 

Matsui is still an aging outfielder with a serious injury in a recent season. Giambi? Heck, I don't know: he could go either way, although I expect that he'll find some way to do moderately well with free agency looming again.

 

And another thing. I dont know how they create all of the projections...

 

Sean Smith has his own algorithms, but he's looking at player aging curves, context of performance, regression to the mean, and previous performance.

 

...but do they take into account the team around them too? Because a guy like Damon outperforming his projection in one of his worst career yrs is laughable.

 

The high OBP of A-Rod and Posada made a difference by giving Damon and the other Yankees more opportunities to hit, and A-Rod probably drove Johnny home a few times, but the big things that dropped Damon's projection were, I'm confident, his age, his injury history, and simple regression to the mean.

 

An average MLB team might have five starters a little over their projection, two a little under, and one complete collapse due to injury. That would sum to a dead-accurate projection. You'll find that most serious systems will have patterns of results similar to this.

 

Damon was barely over his projection. A-Rod, Matsui, Cano and Jorge were way over expectations...Giambi was way low, and it almost averaged out (842 runs scored vs. 800 runs scored by the projected starting lineup).

 

Regardless, the yankee offense is deeper with a deeper bench and more power throughout. It will bear out again and maybe next yr your computer system can be right. But this yr, it wont even be close.

 

OK, your position is clear: the Yankees will WAY outperform their CHONE projection, which would suggest roughly 800 runs for the team for the year. You're expecting WAY more than 800-odd runs, and, in fact, more runs than the 968 scored by the team in 2007.

 

My position, written previously, is

 

The CHONE projections suggest that the 2008 Boston Red Sox may outscore the 2008 Yankees by 250-odd runs. I can't fault the numbers, but my gut tells me that the margin will be less. In any case, I regard the Yankees' recent advantage over the Red Sox in hitting to be past, whether the margin is over 200 runs or just a handful of runs--Boston appears decisively better offensively.

 

We could both be right: the Yankees' starting position players could score 970-odd runs, and the Red Sox could score a couple more than the Yankees. Alternatively, either of us could be right individually, or we might both be mistaken.

 

Perhaps somebody will remember this thread in October.

[rician blast]

Giambi? Heck, I don't know: he could go either way, although I expect that he'll find some way to do moderately well with free agency looming again.

 

 

ahem...HGH....ahem.

[Gom]

I forgot about Lowell....

 

Definitely down.

 

For the Yankees:

 

Up:

Hughes [more usage]

Chamberlain [more usage, numbers down, overall more value to team]

Kennedy [ditto]

Cano [numbers took a dip, as he develops more patience will improve]

Damon [will depend on his health, but will probably have stats in between 2006 & 2007]

Farnsworth [going to wind up late last season will prove to be his saving grace]

 

Same

Wang [getting tired of his big game meltdowns]

Pettitte [moving on to HGH]

Mussina [due to decreased workload, you will see more quality but less innings]

Abreu [keep on truckin....]

Cabrera *slight improvement possible* [he's about reached his ceiling]

 

Down

Arod [see Beckett...tough to repeat a monster season]

Jeter [body will start to break down]

Posada [knees will start to catch up]

Matsui [will have biggest fall off...the Yankees version of 2007 Drew]

Rivera *slight decrease [guy is timeless]

 

The thing I believe is true for the Yankees is what I think is true for the Sox as well...although you will have more players declining, the upswing is going to be collectively greater than the decline.

 

So both teams...once again....will battle it out to the end....again.

[Jayhawk Bill]

The thing I believe is true for the Yankees...is although you will have more players declining' date=' the upswing is going to be collectively greater than the decline.[/quote']

 

Pitching? Sure, the Yankees will improve a little.

 

Hitting? Maybe Giambi...probably Cabrera. I think a whole bunch of other guys will show decline.

 

what I think is true for the Sox as well...

 

Except for Lowell, I don't see any Red Sox player as set for obvious decline, mostly because they already had off seasons in 2007 or because they're too young to anticipate any decline. :dunno:

 

So both teams...once again....will battle it out to the end....again.

 

We'll see.

[Thumper]

Any word on the starting rotation yet?

[Gom]

Pitching? Sure, the Yankees will improve a little.

 

Hitting? Maybe Giambi...probably Cabrera. I think a whole bunch of other guys will show decline.

 

 

 

Except for Lowell, I don't see any Red Sox player as set for obvious decline, mostly because they already had off seasons in 2007 or because they're too young to anticipate any decline. :dunno:

 

 

 

We'll see.

Another example of homerism.

 

Manny in great shape...yada yada yada. More than ever, he's having issues with breaking balls away. This is because he's starting to cheat a bit. I like Manny, but he's starting to slow down. Same thing with Jeter, who's never been the hitter that Manny is, but they're starting to cheat a bit. Varitek has started his decline, and lets face it..when you're on the wrong side of 30, you start slowing down. Now..is Manny one of the best hitters in the game? Of course. However, his production will start to decrease. So will Posada.

 

As for pitching for the Yankees...the starting pitching can't really be worse. Even if the vaunted three, Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain don't get into the Hall of Fame next year, look at what they are competing with. Desalvo, Wright, Igawa, Henn, Pavano etc. We were one elbow strain away from jacksonianmarch filling in. So the pitching will be much better on the back end.

 

Now do I think the Yankees will challenge the all-time win mark? No. However, you'll see a decrease in their offense, and in increase in their pitching.

 

On another note...jacko...Matsui isn't just the numbers. He's on the Giambi train of losing the ability to go the other way. That is why I am convinced he's going to suck. Compare his ball placement over the years..he's pulling off the ball, and if you were going to get rid of him, right now is the best possible time.

 

I'm willing to bet that Drew will have a better year than Matsui. Goodness knows I pray I'm wrong.

[jacksonianmarch]

so you do not think that Cano will improve? Its not like he's young or has potential or anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

Gom, I dont really see your point. Matsui had the perfect set up for a down yr last yr and to be honest with you, he didnt have one. But if you are going to continually predict an older player will fail, one of these yrs you'll be right.

 

Regardless. Last season, Matsui had an OPS right at his career AVG. He hit his 2nd highest number of homeruns. He had his second highest tally of walks. He broke 100RBI again. For the first time in a full season, he K'd the same amount as he walked. Prior to injuring his knee at the beginning of September, he was hitting .303 with a .375OBP and a .513SLG. What else do you want to know about him?

 

By the end of the yr, that knee was so bad that he couldnt stay back. He buckled as soon as the ball came out of the pitchers hand. It sounds like he had a pretty bad meniscal tear and needed it fixed, a la David Ortiz. I dont see your point about decline. Aside from an obvious injury that made him close to useless for the last month and playoffs, he was as good if not better than he had ever been.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Another example of homerism.

 

Manny in great shape...yada yada yada. More than ever, he's having issues with breaking balls away. This is because he's starting to cheat a bit. I like Manny, but he's starting to slow down. Same thing with Jeter, who's never been the hitter that Manny is, but they're starting to cheat a bit. Varitek has started his decline, and lets face it..when you're on the wrong side of 30, you start slowing down. Now..is Manny one of the best hitters in the game? Of course. However, his production will start to decrease.

 

"Homerism?"

 

Let’s check what neutral projections—Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel--suggest regarding which players will go up or down from their 2007 marks in runs scored, with the median in parentheses:

 

Posada: 3 down (-15)

Giambi: 3 up (+32)

Cano: 3 down (-13)

Rodriguez: 3 down (-25)

Jeter: 2 up, 1 down (+4)

Damon: 2 up, 1 down (+2)

Cabrera: 3 up (+6)

Abreu: 3 down (-24)

Matsui: 3 down (-19)

 

OK, I’d already granted that Cabrera and Giambi would do well. I’d then said that I think a whole bunch of other guys will show decline—and sure enough, five of the other seven starting players are universally considered by serious projections to be due for decline. The sum of the median declines projected for those five is 96 runs. Jeter and Damon are treading water with mixed projections. At first it looks as if Giambi can make up a good chunk of those lost runs, but the issue goes further than that—as the Yankees’ starters OBP drops, there are fewer outs remaining for the bench players to use. The lost bench productivity has to be considered, too—and that’s why the work I did earlier showed a drop all the way back to around 800 runs scored for the whole team.

 

Let’s contrast this with the Boston starters:

 

Varitek: 3 up (+3)

Youkilis: 3 down (-14)

Pedroia: 1 up, 2 down (-9)

Lowell: 3 down (-39)

Lugo: 1 up, 2 down (-1)

Ramirez: 2 up, 1 down (+3)

Crisp: 1 up, 2 down (-5)

Ellsbury: 3 up (+58)

Drew: 3 up (+11)

Ortiz: 1 even, 2 down (-7)

 

On the up side, JD Drew is projected to rebound more than Cabrera is expected to improve, and Ellsbury is projected to improve far more than Giambi is expected to rebound. Varitek is projected to improve by all three systems, but not by much. Five Red Sox are treading water with mixed projections, including Manny, whom you pegged for a decline. Mike Lowell is projected to decline from his outstanding 2007, just as I’d previously indicated. Overall, though, the Red Sox players aren’t projected to decline, and their high OBPs leave lots of playing time for bench players such as Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie and Alex Cora, all of whom are reasonable hitters--hitters who can be expected to create lots of runs.

 

That leaves just one other decline: Kevin Youkilis. Most of the projection systems go back three years, and in 2005 Youkilis was used as a bench player—a bench player with a .400 OBP, but a bench player. That year as a bench player factors into these projections and lowers them. If he’d started in either MLB or MiLB, the systems would project him forward using MLB stats or MiLB MLEs, but time spent on a bench projects to future time spent sitting, just as if he’d been injured. Injuries tend to repeat themselves; benching a .400 OBP guy to give lesser hitters their playing time is just bad management by Terry Francona. I’ll be eager to see the PECOTAs: their use of 20 most-comparable players rather than generic formulaic curves will probably make a difference. I suspect, however, that these three projections understate Youkilis’s potential because of his bench time.

 

(As an aside, Pedroia probably suffers a little bit because of his misuse in late 2006 and early 2007, when Francona was determined to start Alex Cora against the easier pitchers and Pedroia against the tougher ones, costing Pedroia both OPS points and playing time.)

 

In summary, my only difference with the projection systems regards Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis’s career has few comparables, but here’s one: John Kruk. Kruk started out a whole lot like Youkilis, getting good OBP in limited playing time, and he peaked a little late at ages 28-32. Youkilis is also quite similar to Ferris Fain, and Ferris Fain had a strong peak at ages 29-31, with a sharp decline after age 33. I see Youkilis maintaining at least his current productivity through his early 30’s, too, just as I see him tailing off rapidly before age 35.

 

If my difference with the systems on one player out of 18 brands me as a “homer,” well, OK…but your difference with professionals on so many of these players suggests that whatever label you choose for subjective favoritism, it applies several times as much with respect to yourself than it does to me.