Colorodo Rockies Scouting Report

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From Keith Law of ESPN. Enjoy!

 

These are not your father's Colorado Rockies. The Rox finished eighth in the NL in home runs this year, but they allowed the fifth-fewest home runs, giving up one less than the Mets, who play in a great pitcher's park. That stinginess with the long ball allowed the Rockies to finish eighth in the NL in ERA, their best showing ever. Some of this can attributed to the humidor, which has transformed Coors Field from an insane hitter's park to a good hitter's park. But some of it's due to the turnover of their pitching staff, which is now filled with modest-stuff guys who keep the ball down and throw strikes. They also feature a pair of exciting power arms who were thrown into the rotation by circumstance.

 

Strengths

The Rockies' pitchers owe a debt of gratitude to their tremendous middle-infield defense. Troy Tulowitzki may win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, and his defense (and the defensive troubles of Ryan Braun) is a big reason why. Tulowitzki has outstanding instincts at shortstop, good range in both directions and a 70 arm (on the 20-80 scouting scale). He's also a wizard coming across the bag on the double play. Meanwhile, his keystone partner, Kaz Matsui, a shortstop in Japan, also shows excellent range and sure hands. A lot of balls that would go through other infields up the middle or in either hole are stopped and converted into outs by the Rockies. Behind those two, center fielder Willy Taveras covers a lot of ground in the outfield, although he has a fringy arm and may not make the postseason roster due to injury. Neither of his replacements (Ryan Spilborghs or Cory Sullivan) covers the same amount of territory.

 

How They'll Win

• Even if their starter doesn't strike many hitters out, the Rockies can keep their opponents off the board by turning balls in the middle of the field into outs.

 

• At home, their power hitters are at their best, and they have as big a home-field advantage as any team in the playoffs.

 

• On the road, they'll need more from their pitchers and/or defense, or a big step up from the hitters who've gotten a little too used to playing in the thin air.

Colorado also has one of the most effective bullpens in the game, led by a Panamanian ground-ball machine named Manny Corpas. Corpas has a long, loose arm action, and he generates plus movement on his two-seamer with good sink and tailing action. He throws strikes and pairs it with an average slider that he uses to keep hitters off his fastball. He's joined in the 'pen by the man he replaced, former closer Brian Fuentes, a sidearming lefty with a solid-average fastball and a short slider. Fuentes has the ability to run his fastball in hard on right-handed hitters and then can work his slider on the outside corner. They've even received effective relief work from some very unlikely sources: incendiary right-hander LaTroy Hawkins (good fastball but iffy command) and journeyman reliever Matt Herges, one of the heroes of the play-in game.

 

Their starting staff may have benefited from strong defense up the middle, but injuries led the team to call up two of its best pitching prospects, and both threw well down the stretch. The team's ace is Jeff Francis, a lefty with a fringy fastball (84-88 mph) that cuts away from left-handers' bats. He exhibits outstanding command and a solid-average curve in the 70-73 mph range. His changeup is average with a little fading action. But righties do get a good look at him, and opposing managers will probably go to platoon arrangements when they can. Behind him is Franklin Morales, one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the minors before he was recalled. Morales works consistently in the 93-95 mph range, and his ball gets in on hitters quickly. He's particularly tough on lefties because of his curveball, a big, two-plane breaker that he commands better than his fastball. Behind him is longtime prospect Ubaldo Jimenez, whose career has been slowed by injuries and control trouble. He walked 99 batters this year between the minors and majors, but his walk rate actually improved when he reached the big leagues. He's primarily a thrower, working in the mid-90s, and lacks a plus secondary pitch. His changeup is the best of the lot.

 

How They'll Lose

• Too many balls to third base or into the outfield corners will add up to extra runs for their opponents.

 

• Other than Jeff Francis, everyone in the Rockies' rotation has below-average command or control and poses a risk to get blown out of a start early, even more so if the other team has a patient lineup.

 

• The back end of their bullpen was great in the play-in game, but guys like LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Herges, and Jorge Julio are too risky to use in high-leverage situations.

The core of the Rockies' offense may not be as good as the raw numbers indicate, but they do have several dangerous hitters in the middle of their lineup. Todd Helton hasn't hit for the same power he showed in past years, but he can still turn on a fastball middle-in, and he shows outstanding plate discipline and pitch recognition -- working the count to try to get a pitch he can drive and using the whole field when he gets two strikes. Matt Holliday has good raw power and murders fastballs early in the count. Tulowitzki likes to get his arms extended and has even more raw power than he showed this season.

 

Weaknesses

The Rockies' No. 1 weakness, as it has been throughout the history of their franchise, is the road. No Rockies hitter slugged .500 or better on the road this year (six managed the feat in Denver), and the team slugged 82 points higher at home than on the road. Humidor or no humidor, there's something that Rockies hitters like about hitting at Coors Field and dislike about hitting on the road, and it could work against them in the postseason.

 

As good as the Rockies are defensively up the middle, they're very shaky on the corners. Brad Hawpe is a first baseman playing right field out of necessity. His range is very limited, and he gets terrible reads on balls. Holliday is better in left, but not good. He takes some bizarre routes to balls and finds himself spun around too often for someone playing in such a big outfield. Garrett Atkins has long been considered a candidate to move from third base. Although he's better now than when he first came up, he's never going to have great range, and his hands are only so-so. Still, he deserves some credit for cutting down on his errors this year.

 

Question Marks

• The Rockies will be at a home-field disadvantage in every series. Can their offense produce enough on the road to overcome it?

 

• Can we realistically expect Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez to continue their outstanding September performances as their workloads mount and they face playoff-caliber offenses?

 

• Can Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Garrett Atkins succeed when they're facing better pitchers with better pitching plans every day?

Their pitching staff allows a lot of balls in play, which is usually asking for trouble in a hitter's park with a big outfield, but it has worked this year because the Rockies' defense up the middle is so strong. Against high-contact offenses in October, however, those extra balls in play are going to be more damaging, and the team's defensive shortcomings on the corners will be part of the reason why.

 

Their lineup has a strong core, but other than Helton and Hawpe, Colorado is not a disciplined club. Holliday and Atkins are both looking fastball, especially early in the count, and can be beaten by a pitcher with a good secondary pitch and the feel to use it 0-0 or in fastball counts. Tulowitzki's swing can get long, and he can be beaten with sliders and curveballs moving away from him, and on fastballs up. Hawpe is a classic left-handed hitter who's looking for the ball down or over the plate, and he'll chase balls up and in.

 

Outside of that group, they have some mediocre hitters often batting high in their lineup -- players like Kaz Matsui and Willy Taveras. Neither of them walks or works the count. Matsui looks to pull the ball way too often for a player with below-average power, and he's at a disadvantage against pitchers who'll go hard in at his hands or down at his feet with off-speed stuff.