Boston Red Sox Scouting Report

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I thought you guys might like this. From ESPN Insider Keith Law. Enjoy.

 

The Red Sox have been keeping up with the Joneses when it comes to spending, but they have also received some contributions from the products of their farm system this season. (They hope that the recent infusion of homegrown talent is the beginning of a long-term trend.) They've built a powerful offense that finished third in the league in runs scored and second in on-base percentage, a pitching staff that led the league in ERA (including a 3.14 ERA from their relievers that led the league by a substantial margin) and one of the majors' best defensive clubs. Boston's roster is a balanced one with a long list of strengths and no glaring weaknesses.

 

Strengths

The Red Sox spent a substantial amount of money in the offseason, but no single expense was bigger than the cost to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka, including more than $50 million for the rights to negotiate with him. The idea was to build a rotation around three potential No. 1 starters -- Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling -- with Tim Wakefield providing good performance and bulk innings in the fourth spot.

 

How They'll Win

• Expect to see the Red Sox's offense try to grind out their playoff games, taking pitches early, putting men on base, and hitting enough singles and doubles to carry leads late into games.

 

• Strong starting pitching performances from Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka will give the Sox a big leg up in any five- or seven-game series, leaving them less reliant on Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield.

 

• If the Sox have a lead after seven innings in any playoff game, they should win it, with a shutdown combo of Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon and the hope that one of their other quality relievers can step in when either of those guys isn't available.

By and large, the plan has worked. Beckett has been one of the league's five best starters, and Matsuzaka was effective for most of the season before struggling in late August. Matsuzaka has the almost-standard Japanese repertoire of six different pitches; his primary weapons are his 88-94 mph fastball -- a four-seamer he commands well and that gets in on hitters quickly -- and an 82-87 mph slider/cutter, which has a sharp break in toward right-handed hitters. He also throws a 12-to-6 curve, a splitter with good bottom (a pitch he should use more often) and a straight changeup. Matsuzaka's delivery features a big twist that makes the ball very tough for hitters to pick up, but he loses this out of the stretch and has been less effective with men on base. It also should be noted that Matsuzaka was a horse this season -- he is able to throw 120 pitches in a game more easily than most other starters in baseball. If he keeps his pitching plan simple and can keep his composure better when he ends up with a couple of men on base, Matsuzaka will be an asset.

 

Beckett's profile is closer to that of the traditional front-of-the-rotation power arm. His fastball is an easy 94-97 mph, mostly straight with an occasional bit of cut to it, and he commands it well. He throws a hard changeup at 87-90 mph, with little fade but with decent arm speed. His best secondary pitch is a 76-81 mph curve with a sharp, deep, two-plane break; he can throw it for strikes or put it in the dirt as needed. As long as he moves his fastball around and avoids throwing it up in the zone in obvious fastball counts, he keeps the ball in the park. With him and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox have two of those three No. 1 starters they hoped for, and they have gotten those bulk innings they expected from Wakefield, whose knuckleball is as good as ever but his back is not.

 

The front end of Boston's bullpen is another strength for the club. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the two or three best closers in the game, with outstanding command of a 93-95 mph fastball that he uses heavily to get ahead in counts, finishing hitters off with an 88 mph splitter. His slider tends to flatten out and is more of a show-me pitch. Before he was shut down for two weeks in mid-September with a tired arm, Hideki Okajima served as Papelbon's primary set-up man. Although Okajima's fastball is only 86-88 mph, he fools hitters with his so-called "okie-dokie" split-change (82-84 mph with good bottom), which makes him even more effective against right-handed hitters than against left-handed hitters. (Unsettling stat: Okajima has allowed 17 earned runs this year, nine to the Yankees.)

 

How They'll Lose

• The playoffs tend to bring better competition, both because your opponents are the best teams in the league and because you don't face fifth starters or sixth/seventh relievers, so the Sox's patient approach at the plate won't work as well against pitchers with good control and good fastball command.

 

• There's a soft underbelly in Boston's pen, especially if Eric Gagne continues to struggle with his control and under-utilize his changeup and if Manny Delcarmen sacrifices command for power, or if they have to give highly-leveraged innings to Mike Timlin or Julian Tavarez.

 

• If Daisuke Matsuzaka has a start where his control is a little off and he has to work with too many men on base, he'll become a five-inning pitcher who'll give up five or six runs and force the Red Sox's offense to put up a big number against a good opposing starter.

Boston's strengths don't end with the team's pitching staff. The Red Sox's offense, while not performing up to preseason expectations, has still been very good, largely because of their exceptional patience at the plate. They see more pitches per plate appearance than any team in baseball (3.95, 0.01 ahead of Cleveland), and only the Yankees have put more men on base. As a result, they're third in the AL in runs scored despite a relative power outage this season -- more on that in a moment -- and they get to an opponent's bullpen quickly even if they don't score off of the opposing starter. The lineup's anchor, David Ortiz, has overcome knee and shoulder injuries to finish strongly, hitting nearly half of his homers in the season's final two months; he's a very difficult hitter to attack because his weak spot, inside just above or below his hands, is so close to a spot where he murders pitches, middle-in.

 

Finally, the Red Sox arguably boast the best defensive club in the American League, particularly when Alex Cora is on the field. Coco Crisp has gone from a below-average glove in center to one of the best center fielders in the game, at least when it comes to range. They typically start a center fielder in right in J.D. Drew. Mike Lowell is one of the best, if rarely discussed, defensive third basemen in baseball, with extremely sure hands and surprisingly good range in either direction. Kevin Youkilis is Lowell's analogue at first. Boston's only weak in left field, and to some degree at shortstop, where Julio Lugo's range has slipped noticeably from his days with Tampa Bay.

 

Weaknesses

Boston really hasn't received the contributions they expected from the two guys who hit behind Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Drew. Ramirez has battled an oblique strain late in the season, but even earlier in the year he looked like his bat had slowed down a tiny bit. So, although Ramirez will still crush a fastball anywhere in his hitting zone, his adjustments to off-speed pitches haven't been up to his usual standard and he can be beaten with soft stuff, especially breaking balls down or down and away. Drew has had to deal with his son's medical issues, which may be part of the reason for the five-month slump that preceded his strong September. He's still passive at the plate; Drew will watch his fair share of called third strikes and is hard-pressed to hit even mediocre breaking balls from left-handed pitchers. When he's on his game, Drew shows good power to left and right-center and adjusts well to off-speed stuff from righties, but this year he hasn't been driving the ball to right field like he used to do. Drew has been taking a lot of hittable pitches the other way and getting under balls middle-up; pitching him hard in and then soft away is the approach to get him out.

 

Question Marks

• Can David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew stay healthy and produce more power in October?

 

• Can Curt Schilling gut out a few five- or six-inning starts and keep Boston's offense in games?

 

• Can Eric Gagne and Manny Delcarmen step up and provide critical bridge innings to get the ball to Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon?

The Red Sox's other big weakness, oddly enough, is Schilling, the third No. 1 starter from their offseason plan. Since coming off the disabled list, Schilling hasn't had the same stuff, particularly not on his fastball, which is now a lifeless 85-90 mph and doesn't miss bats at all. Schilling still has a plus splitter and good command, but when your fastball is soft and straight, your ability to throw it for strikes is compromised by its increased hittability.

 

Boston's middle relief corps could go either way, given some of the talent that resides there, but for the season's final two months, they've been more of a hindrance than a help. Eric Gagne has been mostly awful since the Red Sox acquired him on July 31, struggling with his control, with an over reliance on his fastball (92-94 mph, but straight, and not his best pitch), and some tenderness in his right shoulder. Manny Delcarmen has outstanding stuff, running his fastball up to 97 mph and throwing a hard changeup with a screwball-like fading action that makes him effective against lefties, but his fastball command is well below-average. Mike Timlin is a strike-thrower, but isn't a guy the Sox can bring in to a tough situation with men on base because his stuff results in too much contact.