Did the Sox trade the wrong LHP?

[scaffolds]

Lester has pitched well only once after his return from the minors and that was his first game against the Guardians, last night was another example of his struggles, while he was throwing, he couldn't throw two quality pitches in a row, his fastball command was non existant, he was only able to throw 33% for strike the first pitch to each hitter. Lester needs good command on his fastball to have a swing and a miss pitch. Gabbard on the other hand was very consistent pitcher in Boston in 2007 and only had one bad game (in Seatle) and one bad inning against the Guardians. With Gabbard being a ground ball pitcher, compare to Lester being a fly ball the % of avoiding a big inning are more likely than Lester. There was talk at the time of the trade that Gabbard was his trade value peake, however Lester's has only come down. More than likely if the Red Sox would had traded Lester over Gabbard they wouldn't had to include Engel Beltreas part of this package.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester is also 4 yrs younger and has the better arsenal. I think the sox may have dealt away a guy that could have helped them in Gabbard, but they didnt make the wrong move.

 

If you want to criticize, you can be critical of Theo's plan of bringing Lester up well before he was ready. Lester should be winding down in AAA and preparing for a grueling off season of endurance training. Not gearing up in a playoff race when it is obvious he is running on fumes.

[redsoxrules]

they should send him down right now and call up buchholz , so that way clay would be pitching next tuesday against the rays ( wich is the game i will be attending )

 

 

edit: in his 4 starts he has a 6.43 ERA, 1.71WHIP and OPPBA 330

 

if they dont call up clay at least put tavarez back in the 5th spot

[jacksonianmarch]

they should send him down right now and call up buchholz ' date=' so that way clay would be pitching next tuesday against the rays ( wich is the game i will be attending )[/quote']

 

bringing up Buchholz also isnt the answer. Right now you dont have much choice besides Lester unless you want to grab Boomer Wells again for the stretch run (who was just cut).

[redsoxrules]

bringing up Buchholz also isnt the answer. Right now you dont have much choice besides Lester unless you want to grab Boomer Wells again for the stretch run (who was just cut).

 

yes we do have a choice besides lester , even f***ing tavarez would be better than lester right now . and i guarantee buchholz wouldn't have a problem getting better numbers than lester

[jacksonianmarch]

yes we do have a choice besides lester ' date=' even f***ing tavarez would be better than lester right now . and i guarantee buchholz wouldn't have a problem getting better numbers than lester[/quote']

 

Buchholz is gonna be a good one. But I dont think bringing up a 22 yr old kid after a long season running through the system into the rotation is the answer. Just like I am not advocating for moving Kennedy or Joba into the rotation this yr. They are ready, but I dont think it benefits them or the team overall by rushing them to the bigs. I could see the sox moving Buchholz to the pen in September, but the rotation may be too much too soon.

[Mr Crunchy]

buckholtz will be here in september regardless

lester tap danced thru fire ever since he walked out on the mound last year

he had a 7-21 record but never really dominated anyone

 

his game against the tribe this year was the best game ive seen him pitch since he arrived

i love the way he battles and refuses to give in but the guy needs to stop hanging himself with bb's and start attacking the strike zone

we didnt trade the wrong guy

gabbard had a few a good outings for us but in the grand scheme of things he isnt that good and lesters upside is more promising

plus

after the battle with cancer the front office wouldve looked very cold putting him on the block and the public relations department wouldve kayboshed any deal involving lester.

[BoSox21]

Gabbard is probably the better option right now but Lester definitely has the better upside but it's becoming obvious he isn't ready for the majors right now but I just don't see the solution for a 5th starter right now. Tavarez isn't it, Hansack isn't it and I don't think Buchholz is ready

[das11209]

For this year I am assuming that Sox will make the play-offs and in October - we need the lights-out reliever more than the fifth starter. For future seasons - I will take Lester over Gabbard. So - I do think they made the right move.

 

Off course this analysis will fall through if they do not make the play-offs because the fifth starter was aweful ( rememer 2006?).

 

Interesting discussion in my opinion.

[mtbykr]

buchholtz did an interview on WEEI a couple weeks ago in which he said the sox told him they were only allowing him to pitch 150 innings this year...which means he has about 40 left in him...whether that be in AAA or boston

[jacksonianmarch]

buchholtz did an interview on WEEI a couple weeks ago in which he said the sox told him they were only allowing him to pitch 150 innings this year...which means he has about 40 left in him...whether that be in AAA or boston

 

hence why he wont come to the majors. If he comes to the bigs and contributes right away, as I would expect him to do, there will be no innings garnishing. He'll pitch until Francona wants to take him out. And with the way he rides his starters (which i really like actually), Buchholz would be pencilled in for 6-7 innings a night for the last 9 turns of the rotation plus the playoffs if he outpitches Wake. That is at least another 50-60IP plus october, which could see him approaching 170 or 180IP depending on how deep they go.

 

And someone above made a very good point as well. At the time of the deal, the sox were 9 games up. At that point a 5th starter isnt as necessary as a lights out reliever. Your 5th starter becomes a long man in the playoffs anyway. But by getting Gagne, you got a guy who could go an important inning in every single playoff game. I doubt the sox make that move if the division race was tied.

[Rdsxmbnt]

sorry scaffolds but why do I get the sense this thread was more or less directed at the trading of Engel Beltre rather than which pitcher should have gotten traded?

 

It was a no brainer who you trade, Gabbard's value was at his highest while Lester arguably at his lowest. Lester has way more upside, maybe for this one season the wrong LHP was traded but moving forward Gabbard was a fringe 5th starter for while Lester maye or may not be a very good MLB SP. Time will tell but I can sleep much easier giving up a low upside guy whos a couple years older.

[scaffolds]

sorry scaffolds but why do I get the sense this thread was more or less directed at the trading of Engel Beltre rather than which pitcher should have gotten traded?

 

It was a no brainer who you trade, Gabbard's value was at his highest while Lester arguably at his lowest. Lester has way more upside, maybe for this one season the wrong LHP was traded but moving forward Gabbard was a fringe 5th starter for while Lester maye or may not be a very good MLB SP. Time will tell but I can sleep much easier giving up a low upside guy whos a couple years older.

 

 

First of all, i was just asking the question and them I gave my opinion. Too answer you question this is all about Gabbard and Lester Only, if it would had been about Beltre I would had open a thread for, I don't had an issue with expressing my way of thinking. It has been reported how the industry thinks of Beltre as a prospect and I have expressed my views on its own thread so there's not reason to bring it in this one.

 

Gabbard is less than 2 years (not four like Jackson posted) older than Lester, the reason that has been talk about Lester having a higher ceiling is because Lester was the harder thrower of the two on his way to the Ml, however not in 2007 where both has been 87-88 on their fastball with Gabbard having the better command and also the better off speed pitches. There isn't a question that Gabbard has pitched better at the ML level than Lester and more consistent and if the Red Sox where going to make a run at the championship this year Gabbard was the pitcher. One more point i am not saying that Lester can't pitch at the ML level, one day he may or may not, but in 2007 the Red Sox have a better chance of winning with Gabbard than they do with Lester.

 

Jackson, i wasn't taking a shot at Theo, as a matter of fact i believe that in general he has done a good job with the Red Sox and they are in a lot better shape with him than without him.

[TheKilo]

Jacko, you really think 30 innings is going to be that big of a deal?

[das11209]

And someone above made a very good point as well. At the time of the deal, the sox were 9 games up. At that point a 5th starter isnt as necessary as a lights out reliever. Your 5th starter becomes a long man in the playoffs anyway. But by getting Gagne, you got a guy who could go an important inning in every single playoff game. I doubt the sox make that move if the division race was tied.

 

I agree that Sox do not make the deal if the division race is tied - and I also think Cashman trades a prospect for Gagne..

[mtbykr]

Jacko' date=' you really think 30 innings is going to be that big of a deal?[/quote']

 

It is according to bucholtz....they (sox) told him no matter where he pitches he won't go over 150. adding an additional 20% to his total doesn't sound like an option.

[RobZombie]

I think we need to accept that Kason Gabbard was extremely lucky in his time with the Sox. He had a .210 BABIP, numbers like this are simply not sustainable over time.

 

The difference between Gabbard and Lester for the rest of the year is likely to be slight at best. Over time, Lester is defintely the better prospect. It often takes 18 months for a guy to recover from cancer, and it hasn't even been 12 since Lester began treatment.

 

There can be no doubt that the value Gagne adds is greater than the difference between Gabbard and Lester.

[scaffolds]

The Rangers would had taken Lester over Gabbard, so Gagne isn't a factor here and if that would had been the case beltre wouldn't had been part of the package.

[example1]

Buchholz is gonna be a good one. But I dont think bringing up a 22 yr old kid after a long season running through the system into the rotation is the answer. Just like I am not advocating for moving Kennedy or Joba into the rotation this yr. They are ready' date=' but I dont think it benefits them or the team overall by rushing them to the bigs. I could see the sox moving Buchholz to the pen in September, but the rotation may be too much too soon.[/quote']

 

But you're phine with Phil Hughes? (yes, I spelled it phine!)

 

You are spouting the same thing over and over, but I just think you're wrong on this one jacko.

[jacksonianmarch]

But you're phine with Phil Hughes? (yes, I spelled it phine!)

 

You are spouting the same thing over and over, but I just think you're wrong on this one jacko.

 

Hughes has come through the minors slowly and is ready. This has been quite a big leap for Buchholz and I am not sure he can handle the load this season. Hughes, OTOH, has a fresh arm since he was hurt earlier in the yr.

[TheKilo]

Hughes has come through the minors slowly and is ready. This has been quite a big leap for Buchholz and I am not sure he can handle the load this season. Hughes' date=' OTOH, has a fresh arm since he was hurt earlier in the yr.[/quote']

 

Yeah it's the legs you need to be concerned about.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah it's the legs you need to be concerned about.

 

that is the worry. We'll see how he holds up. If he can shake off the rust and get going back to his control level, he will be something special.

[TheKilo]

that is the worry. We'll see how he holds up. If he can shake off the rust and get going back to his control level' date=' he will be something special.[/quote']

 

If he overcompensates with the lack of strength in his legs and blows out his arm?

 

Tomato, tomato...

[jacksonianmarch]

he has no lack of leg strength or they wouldnt have put him out there. The question is if he reinjures himself. I dont think he will because that isnt his MO.

[Mr Crunchy]

how many ip has buck pitched this year??

100?? maybe a few more??

we've done what we're supposed to do as far as his development goes

he isnt to be confused with craig hansen.

i dont see him getting the ball on consecutive days when he does arrive but rest assured,he'll be here in september firing away.

[Khan]

Just to add fuel to the fire, I heard this morning on EEI the Gabbard has a strained forearm. (If I really wanted to monday morning QB a move it would be Gagne vs. Dye, but that has beaten enough).

[TheKilo]

Just to add fuel to the fire' date=' I heard this morning on EEI the Gabbard has a strained forearm. (If I really wanted to monday morning QB a move it would be Gagne vs. Dye, but that has beaten enough).[/quote']

 

Strained forearm could be the precursor to TJ surgery, and with Gabbard's arm issues in the past that could be bad news.