Brad lidge Boston-bound???

[jacksonianmarch]

There is concern about Oswalt's declining K rates. He is still a top-tier pitcher in baseball' date=' and any team that got him would get a few pretty strong seasons from him. He is the [i']type[/i] of pitcher this team would love to add in terms of his level of dominance and overall value. I could see parting with Ellsbury for him, but Bowden, Hansen and Lowrie could be a bit m uch. We are all seeing what MDC is doing, and Hansen has similarly impressive stuff at his core. Bowden is potentially a very solid starter. Ellsbury is a potential all-star. I don't know... if Oswalt were 3 years younger then I would happily trade that.

 

For Oswalt, I would assume you would have to give up Buchholz. If you didnt, you'd have to give up Bowden and Ellsbury. Oswalt is an elite pitcher, up there with Santana and still very young. You wont get him cheap.

[example1]

If you think a guy like Lidge who has rebounded this season' date=' is coming cheap, they you are smoking something. Last yr was the yr to get him. This yr, it will cost a high level prospect.[/quote']

 

I'm smoking a fat bowl of Dan Wheeler. If Lidge is so valuable as a potential closer then the Astros might wanna start using him in that capacity. He has equal or better numbers and a lot more history as the Astros closer than Wheeler does. He walks more, but he strikes out more and their WHIPs are only 0.02 different.

 

He's had a nice rebound, but he has a sore thumb in terms of having lost his job very publicly and having not been able to win it back despite a solid season. He's not an elite level closer, he's a question mark. A potentially valuable question mark, but a big question mark nonetheless.

[example1]

For Oswalt' date=' I would assume you would have to give up Buchholz. If you didnt, you'd have to give up Bowden and Ellsbury. Oswalt is an elite pitcher, up there with Santana and still very young. You wont get him cheap.[/quote']

 

I'd offer them Ellsbury, WMP and Lester.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd offer them Ellsbury' date=' WMP and Lester.[/quote']

 

Like I said before, Lester's value is low for other teams right now. WMP has no value to the sox and other teams know it. That package wont get you a front line SP. Not even close.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm smoking a fat bowl of Dan Wheeler. If Lidge is so valuable as a potential closer then the Astros might wanna start using him in that capacity. He has equal or better numbers and a lot more history as the Astros closer than Wheeler does. He walks more, but he strikes out more and their WHIPs are only 0.02 different.

 

He's had a nice rebound, but he has a sore thumb in terms of having lost his job very publicly and having not been able to win it back despite a solid season. He's not an elite level closer, he's a question mark. A potentially valuable question mark, but a big question mark nonetheless.

 

he's less of a question mark than he was last yr, hence his value has gone up.

[ksushi]

I could careless about his K-rate. He's a monster, and our staff needs to regain its stability. Schilling is no lock, and if he comes back we're even more dangerous, but we need another guy who can give us a solid turn every 5 days. If Oswalt were available it would shock me if the Sox weren't in on it.

 

Right now, I wouldn't move MDC. His confidence is sky high and his stuff is great. He's been HUGE for us. He is exactly the kind of guy you want for the post season. Blazin' fast f***in' awesome four seamer and brutal snap dragon beast curve ball. His composure was the problem, now it isn't.

 

Hansen I would deal given MDC's recent success. He could be a huge trading chip for us. Ellsbury I know everyone is in love with, but his value for us right now has to be in a trade. Coco is on pace to have a historic season defensively in CF, better than any season Hunter or Jones has ever had in their careers and if he keeps up that pace this year and for the forseeable future and is more of what we have seen since June 1st at the plate... We're all set in CF. You don't get better than that.

 

We have the ammo. I think it makes sense for the FO to take a shot at Oswalt. They will.

[ksushi]

Don't under-estimate the trade value of a 22 year old flame thrower like Hansen. Especially to an NL team with time to let the kid get his feet under him when they're rebuilding.

[TheKilo]

The Astros GM said that neither Oswailt nor Berkman were available.

 

PS it'd cost Ellsbury and Buchholz to get Oswalt.

[a700hitter]

The Astros GM said that neither Oswailt nor Berkman were available.

 

PS it'd cost Ellsbury and Buchholz to get Oswalt.

It would be worth it. Oswalt is signed long term.

[CrespoBlows]

It would be worth it. Oswalt is signed long term.

 

I don't think so.

 

Oswalt's K's are way down this year. His WHIP is 1.41, as well.

[a700hitter]

I don't think so.

 

Oswalt's K's are way down this year. His WHIP is 1.41, as well.

He's not yet 30 and he's been a stud for a while. Let's not forget that he plays for a horseshit team this year and in a bandbox. This guy is what we could only dream Bucholz wil become.

[CrespoBlows]

He's not yet 30 and he's been a stud for a while. Let's not forget that he plays for a horseshit team this year and in a bandbox. This guy is what we could only dream Bucholz wil become.

 

Shouldn't be affecting his strikeouts and walks that badly. He's also been able to dominate in that bandbox for the last five years, and Minute Maid didn't shrink over the offseason.

 

Besides, if you look at Minute Maid's park effects in 2007, it's been very pro-pitcher in 2007.

 

Runs   HR    H    2B    3B     BB (26th in MLB)
0.880 0.981 0.999 0.932 0.905 0.951 

 

I think that he's been a horse for so long, that the overuse is starting to get to him. He's not a big guy, either.

 

Moving to the AL, and to a better hitter's park, isn't going to help Oswalt.

[a700hitter]

Shouldn't be affecting his strikeouts and walks that badly. He's also been able to dominate in that bandbox for the last five years, and Minute Maid didn't shrink over the offseason.

 

Besides, if you look at Minute Maid's park effects in 2007, it's been very pro-pitcher in 2007.

 

Runs   HR    H    2B    3B     BB (26th in MLB)
0.880 0.981 0.999 0.932 0.905 0.951 

 

I think that he's been a horse for so long, and the overuse is starting to get to him. He's not a big guy, either.

 

Moving to the AL, and to a better hitter's park, isn't going to help Oswalt.

...or maybe he just isn't breaking his ass in the first year of a long term contract for a team with no playoff shot. Half of a season is not a trend of decline.

[CrespoBlows]

...or maybe he just isn't breaking his ass in the first year of a long term contract for a team with no playoff shot. Half of a season is not a trend of decline.

 

No?

 

K/9 rates

 

2001 - 9.15

2002 - 8.03

2003 - 7.63

2004 - 7.82

2005 - 6.85

2006 - 6.77

2007 - 6.17

 

I'm not going to rule out that maybe Oswalt is packing it in, but I'd rather not take the risk of seeing him continue his downward trend in a Red Sox uniform.

[a700hitter]

No?

K/9 rates

 

2001 - 9.15

2002 - 8.03

2003 - 7.63

2004 - 7.82

2005 - 6.85

2006 - 6.77

2007 - 6.17

 

I'm not going to rule out that maybe Oswalt is packing it in, but I'd rather not take the risk of seeing him continue his downward trend in a Red Sox uniform.

Many pitchers experience a decline in K ratios as they learn to pitch and get batters out without expending as much energy as they did when they were younger. It's not a very reliable indicator of declining effectiveness.

[example1]

Many pitchers experience a decline in K ratios as they learn to pitch and get batters out without expending as much energy as they did when they were younger. It's not a very reliable indicator of declining effectiveness.

 

His numbers are pretty good. He still only allows an average of .211, with a 1.23 WHIP. Just about his career average. He would be a great addition, if it can be done without dealing too much of the future away.

[CrespoBlows]

Many pitchers experience a decline in K ratios as they learn to pitch and get batters out without expending as much energy as they did when they were younger. It's not a very reliable indicator of declining effectiveness.

 

That logic works for pitchers who continued to be power pitchers as they got older with age, or were always finesse pitchers. It doesn't work with pitchers who went from one end of the spectrum to another.

 

Can you rattle off a few pitchers that went from 9+ K/9 rates to 6+ K/9 rates, and got better with age?

[CrespoBlows]

His numbers are pretty good. He still only allows an average of .211' date=' with a 1.23 WHIP. Just about his career average. He would be a [i']great[/i] addition, if it can be done without dealing too much of the future away.

 

?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/oswalro01.shtml

 

WHIP - 1.41

[Rdsxmbnt]

uh K-rate is a huge factor in predicting future success. The reason Oswalt has been effective is because despite the declining K-rate he has improved walk rate which has risen back to his 2004 circa days. His walk rate isnt bad but at that time period he was striking out a lot more batters then he is now.

 

Oswalt raises a huge red-flag for me right now because of the declining K-rate and huge spike in walk rate, and when you arent striking out guys and walking a lot more your going to run into trouble like he has this season. He posted a 2.94 ERA last year with a 4.37 K/BB and has a 3.91 ERA with a 2.17 K/BB. If it takes Buchholz for him count me out for sure.

[CrespoBlows]

Roy Oswalt (First seven years)

 

IP - 1342

WHIP - 1.20

ERA+ - 139

K/9 - 7.48

 

Dwight Gooden (First seven)

 

IP - 1526

WHIP - 1.13

ERA+ - 131

K/9 - 8.20

 

Dwight Gooden (Second seven)

 

IP - 922

WHIP - 1.35

ERA+ - 99

K/9 - 6.6

 

I'll look into it more, but pitchers like Oswalt, don't tend to age well.

[example1]

?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/oswalro01.shtml

 

WHIP - 1.41

 

huh.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6913/career;_ylt=AvTJ0GWgVWSqANS.4v2BY0WFCLcF

 

They disagree.

 

1.41 sounds more like it, though he's pitched well lately.

[CrespoBlows]

huh.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6913/career;_ylt=AvTJ0GWgVWSqANS.4v2BY0WFCLcF

 

They disagree.

 

1.41 sounds more like it, though he's pitched well lately.

 

Oh, you're talking about Lidge. I'm talking about Oswalt.

[example1]

Oh' date=' you're talking about Lidge. I'm talking about Oswalt.[/quote']

 

Yes, there is some Astros incest going on in this thread. declining k rates, rising WHIPs, boundless confusion indeed.

[CrespoBlows]

Yes' date=' there is some Astros incest going on in this thread. declining k rates, rising WHIPs, boundless confusion indeed.[/quote']

 

[ksushi]

We have a deep enough system to bring in a pitcher like Oswalt without giving up Bucholz. Masterson, Bowden and Hansen are all very nice pitching prospects.

[jacksonianmarch]

We have a deep enough system to bring in a pitcher like Oswalt without giving up Bucholz. Masterson' date=' Bowden and Hansen are all very nice pitching prospects.[/quote']

 

I would think that two high level prospects would be needed. You could get by without sending them Buchholz, I agree. But I think you would have to include Bowden and Ellsbury to get it done. Hansen has about as much value as the s*** I just took in the toilet and Masterson started the season poorly before his most recent start. Both of those guys would be useful in a deal for Lidge IMO, but not for Oswalt who is IMO one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

Roy Oswalt (First seven years)

 

IP - 1342

WHIP - 1.20

ERA+ - 139

K/9 - 7.48

 

Dwight Gooden (First seven)

 

IP - 1526

WHIP - 1.13

ERA+ - 131

K/9 - 8.20

 

Dwight Gooden (Second seven)

 

IP - 922

WHIP - 1.35

ERA+ - 99

K/9 - 6.6

 

I'll look into it more, but pitchers like Oswalt, don't tend to age well.

 

Crespo, I like you and all, but this comparison is pretty f***ing funny. If Doc Gooden hadnt been addicted to nose candy for all those yrs, his second half may have been pretty damn good. You dont pitch well when you are twitching or withdrawing.

[CrespoBlows]

Crespo' date=' I like you and all, but this comparison is pretty f***ing funny. If Doc Gooden hadnt been addicted to nose candy for all those yrs, his second half may have been pretty damn good. You dont pitch well when you are twitching or withdrawing.[/quote']

 

Whatever the reason, Gooden became a pretty average pitcher his last years of his career. He didn't have the same explosive arsenal that he did when he was a 19 year for the Mets.

 

It may not be Acapulco Gold related, but Oswalt's stuff isn't as dominant as it was when he was a young pitcher. The decline in K/9 ratio, almost always has an inverse effect on ERA, especially for pitchers like Gooden and Oswalt.

[a700hitter]

I would think that two high level prospects would be needed. You could get by without sending them Buchholz' date=' I agree. But I think you would have to include Bowden and Ellsbury to get it done. [/quote']Anyone who thinks Bucholz alone gets the deal done is smoking crack.

[a700hitter]

The decline in K/9 ratio' date=' almost always has an inverse effect on ERA, especially for pitchers like Gooden and Oswalt.[/quote']Speaking of smoking crack, maybe smoking crack had something to do with Gooden's decline.