The Official Petition for the Release of Julian Tavares

[Plumpamania]

The Rockie GM would have to be an idiot to give up a young star for a bunch of has beens and du d prospects.

 

Dan O'Dowd gave $121 million to Mike Hampton and $51 million to Denny Neagle in the same offseason as Helton's contract. That should tell you he's a moron. But he has done a much better job lately and given a 2 year contract extension. Having Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Ian Stewart and Jeff Francis is something great to build on. However Stewart and Atkins can both only aptly play 1B and 3B. Helton is the only one moving from that team. And you're right he'd have to revert back to idiocrasy for a trade Atkins for anything aside from a MDC/Hansen/Ellsbury/Place combination.

[Plumpamania]

Good point.

 

Bad point, read my post above.

[Plumpamania]

Lowell and Tavarez are both overpaid so getting rid of their contracts would be a plus. MDC and Hansen are like giving up nothing. They stink.

 

Maybe you didn't read my post that you've already quoted. Lowell is a free agent after this year. Red Sox Contracts. So his contract is fine. Tavares is a free agent at the end of the year with a Club Option for 2008. Those contracts DON'T MATTER.

 

We are losing after 2007:

Matt Clement

Eric Hinske

Julian Tavares

Mike Lowell

Joel Piniero

Mike Timlin

Curt Schilling

J.C. Romero

 

So again who the hell cares about shedding expiring contracts for a 34 year old 15 HR hitting 15man (again Coors field and only 15 HR).

 

Bad idea bro. Bad idea.

[rician blast]

Between Schilling, Lowell and Clement I'm guessing they have around $30m coming off the books.

[riverside sluggers]

I just thought you guys would get a kick out of this. At redsox.com they have that weekly email bag thing. Take a gander at what this reporter for the site said about Tavarez

 

How come the Red Sox are going with Tavarez as their fifth starter? He seemed to be one of their worst pitchers last year, and now they're having him start? Besides having a good end to his season in 2006, this looks like a bad/risky move.

-- Matt, Naugatuck, Conn.

 

Tavarez is one of those versatile and durable guys who can fill every pitching role. Right now, his best fit is as a starter. Perhaps when Lester is ready to pitch in the Majors again or if Clemens decides he wants to come to Boston, Tavarez will go back to the bullpen. I'm not sure why everyone is so down on Tavarez. He was a lot of fun to watch last September. He throws strikes. And though Saturday was an exception, he usually keeps the team in the game.

[jacksonianmarch]

I just thoiught you guys would get a kick out of this. At redsox.com they have that weekly email bag thing. Take a gander at what this reporter for the site said about Tavarez

 

what a douche. Yeah, he throws strikes. Solid work. 1.5WHIP and he is a good #5? When a guy wouldnt even be an upgrade on our rotation, you know he sucks.

[a700hitter]

Sigh. His slugging has been declining tremendously the last few years.

Double sigh. He was injured the last two years, which you keep pointing to as a decline. There is a difference between being injured and being in decline. As an injured player, he had a .400 OBP. That's pretty incredible.

So why would he do the same for Helton' date=' who in your words is "a superstar"?[/quote']The other guy, Atkins is a young, cheap superstar. Don't you see the difference? Why would they want to salary dump him? Duh.

[a700hitter]

Todd Helton OPS+ numbers:

 

2003: 168

2004: 159

2005: 144

2006: 119

2007: 115 (small sample size)

 

Todd Helton EQA numbers:

 

2003: .339

2004: .344

2005: .326

2006: .297

 

Todd Helton OPS:

 

2003: 1.088

2004: 1.088

2005: .979

2006: .880

 

Seriously, how much more stats do I have to show you before you yield the point? Also, this is in Coors Field, an offensive player's paradise.

Thank you for all these stats. I asked you how many of our current players have a .400 OBP each and every year. But thanks for these stat nonetheless.

[a700hitter]

The Rockies picking up his contract will only exist if he's a member of the Red Sox. The same way if the Yankees trade Alex Rodriguez, the full contract goes to the next team unless the Yankees pick up part of the tab. The Yankees are only paying ARod $16 million of the $23 million.

 

Let's say Helton is traded to us, and the Rockies pay $6 million of the $16 million he's owed every year. So we only pay $10 million (decent for 3 years tops of Helton's current production) and we try to trade him after two years (he would still have a no trade clause from the original contract in it), the Rockies would no longer be liable for the $6 million per year.

 

We'd have to pick up the minimum per year that the Rockies did, since Helton would be 2 years older and possible further production slacking.

Is this some union rule that I don't know about? If not, who says it has to be in the Helton deal. You are setting up a straw man here. If Colorado wants out of his contract bad enough, they'll eat the $ no matter what. If they don't agree there would be no deal.

[a700hitter]

Bad point' date=' read my post above.[/color']

Good point. See my post addressing your strawman.

[a700hitter]

Again, no one said that Helton was worse than Youkilis. There just isn't the major difference you insist there is. (If we are to make a bet, we have to adjust for ballpark difficulties)

 

I'm desperately searching to find an instance where you've beat me in a bet? I'm trying to find something where you and I even made a bet. Is this another instance, where your perception is failing you terribly?

There is a diferrence between perception and memory. You do realize that. Don't you? I have a bad memory. You have bad perception. Anywhoo, let this be the first time I beat you in a bet. I am predicting that Helton's stats will completely trash anything Youk does this year. Furthermore, I think Helton will still be a productinve starting player after Youk has been permanently relegated to someone's bench. If my perception is so bad, you should have no problem taking me up on these bets.

[CrespoBlows]

Thank you for all these stats. I asked you how many of our current players have a .400 OBP each and every year. But thanks for these stat nonetheless.

 

If you gave Kevin Youkilis a chance, he'd probably do it. Plus, I'm curious to see what Todd Helton would do out of Coors Field. Let's take a look.

 

Away 271 37 72 19 1 7 30 38 3 40 1 0 .266 .360 .421 .781 

 

A .781 OPS away from Coors Field? Real f***ing special. Looks like Kevin Youkilis is the better bet at nearly 1/50th the cost. We want this guy for 6 years? C'mon, just give up.

[CrespoBlows]

There is a diferrence between perception and memory.

 

You have the perception that Todd Helton will be a productive player at 41 years old, we can trade him if he completely tanks in Fenway, and that Coors Field isn't a major boon to offensive players.

 

Anywhoo, let this be the first time I beat you in a bet. I am predicting that Helton's stats will completely trash anything Youk does this year. Furthermore, I think Helton will still be a productinve starting player after Youk has been permanently relegated to someone's bench. If my perception is so bad, you should have no problem taking me up on these bets.

 

First off, we have to adjust for Coors Field. Then we have to set a definition for "trashing."

[a700hitter]

If you gave Kevin Youkilis a chance, he'd probably do it. Plus, I'm curious to see what Todd Helton would do out of Coors Field. Let's take a look.

 

Away 271 37 72 19 1 7 30 38 3 40 1 0 .266 .360 .421 .781 

 

.

Well even the blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. This is the first reasonable argument that you have put forth. All this "decline" talk for a guy who is healthy again and age 33 is just ridiculous, especially when his OBP continues over .400. We really don't know the "Coors field effect" Nevertheless, I'd like to find out. Fenway is a pretty good hitters park too. Lefties seem to do pretty well in the friendly confines. He may not hit 30 HRs, but he does goe the other way with some power. He might hit 40-50 doubles for the Sox.

[a700hitter]

You have the perception that Todd Helton will be a productive player at 41 years old' date=' we can trade him if he completely tanks in Fenway, and that Coors Field isn't a major boon to offensive players.[/quote']No these are mis perceptions of my position. I never said he'd be good until he is 41 and I never said that we could trade him if he tanks in Fenway. My firm position is that he will be a very good to great player in Fenway. In either case, we could trade him, if we don't win a WC in the next couple of years. It's a mis perception on your part and others that he is in a steep decline.

First off' date=' we have to adjust for Coors Field. Then we have to set a definition for "trashing."[/quote']Here's Helton's and Youk's away stats over their careers. I have to say that I still like a career .392 OBP and an .898 OPS. youk's away stats don't look so hot. Let's bet on their away stats. That would eliminate the "Coors Field" and "Fenway Park" effects.

 

 AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SF   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
2516  380  738 189   8 110  380  402  67  390  22  22  .293  .392  .506  .898
440    65  111  26   2  14   59   77   0   98   9   9  .252  .368  .416  .784 

[Plumpamania]

The "straw" you're think I'm talking about is about as true hard as "steel".

[a700hitter]

Maybe you didn't read my post that you've already quoted. Lowell is a free agent after this year. Red Sox Contracts. So his contract is fine. Tavares is a free agent at the end of the year with a Club Option for 2008. Those contracts DON'T MATTER.

So, we don't have to pay them this year? Are they not overpaid this year?

[Plumpamania]

No these are mis perceptions of my position. I never said he'd be good until he is 41 and I never said that we could trade him if he tanks in Fenway. My firm position is that he will be a very good to great player in Fenway. In either case, we could trade him, if we don't win a WC in the next couple of years. It's a mis perception on your part and others that he is in a steep decline.Here's Helton's and Youk's away stats over their careers. I have to say that I still like a career .392 OBP and an .898 OPS. youk's away stats don't look so hot. Let's bet on their away stats. That would eliminate the "Coors Field" and "Fenway Park" effects.

 

 AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SF   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
2516  380  738 189   8 110  380  402  67  390  22  22  .293  .392  .506  .898
440    65  111  26   2  14   59   77   0   98   9   9  .252  .368  .416  .784 

 

And Youkilis is 28 starting the prime of his career and Helton is 34, exiting his. Good show. Career stats mean complete s*** when you are talking about a player exiting his prime and showing a decline.

[Plumpamania]

So' date=' we don't have to pay them this year? Are they not overpaid this year?[/quote']

 

Sure they're overpaid for what they contribute. However, I'd rather over pay those two for one year who are combined cheaper than one year of Helton, let alone another five after that. If Helton hasn't shown a proneness to injury the last few years and a steep power decline, I'm all for it, easily. However I'm not for it when you look at the trends that have unfortunately hit Helton at this stage of his career.

[a700hitter]

The "straw" you're think I'm talking about is about as true hard as "steel".

Is that a union or MLB required provision in a contract where one team agrees to continue to pay part of a player's contract after he is traded? If it is, please give me a cite or a link, otherwise it is a strawman.

[a700hitter]

Sure they're overpaid for what they contribute. However' date=' I'd rather over pay those two for one year who are combined cheaper than one year of Helton, let alone another five after that. If Helton hasn't shown a proneness to injury the last few years and a [b']steep[/b] power decline, I'm all for it, easily. However I'm not for it when you look at the trends that have unfortunately hit Helton at this stage of his career.

I never compared the length or amount of their contracts to Helton's contract. They are overpaid, whether it be for one year or not.

[Plumpamania]

Is that a union or MLB required provision in a contract where one team agrees to continue to pay part of a player's contract after he is traded? If it is' date=' please give me a cite or a link, otherwise it is a strawman.[/quote']

 

Wish I could give you a link to Mike and the Mad Dog where it came up. Let me put it this way:

 

Team A trades Player X to Team B with Y amount of cash for Player X to play for Team B. When Team B wants to trade Player X to Team C two years later, Team A is not liable for the payment of Player X on another transaction that they had no consent/input over.

[CrespoBlows]

I never said he'd be good until he is 41

 

He'll probably be abl to hit until he is 40.

 

I never said that we could trade him if he tanks in Fenway.

 

If he's good, why would we trade him? The only way the Red Sox would trade a productive ball player is if they got a hell of a deal in return. The Rockies shopped Helton around all winter and got one suitor.

 

]It's a mis perception on your part and others that he is in a steep decline.

 

Look at the stats again. A .200 fall of in OPS is a major decline.

 

Here's Helton's and Youk's away stats over their careers. I have to say that I still like a career .392 OBP and an .898 OPS.

 

Great point. Since career stats mean a lot when evalutating a player from ages 34 to 41.

 

youk's away stats don't look so hot. Let's bet on their away stats. That would eliminate the "Coors Field" and "Fenway Park" effects.

 

I think Helton will outhit Youkilis this year. I'm saying he won't trash him like you claim. Helton will probably have a higher road OPS of .15 to .25 points.

[CrespoBlows]

Well even the blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. This is the first reasonable argument that you have put forth.

 

I'll let the others on the board be the judge of that.

 

We really don't know the "Coors field effect" Nevertheless, I'd like to find out. Fenway is a pretty good hitters park too.

 

Oh, but I do.

 

Park Factor - 2006 
Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB 
1 Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.153 1.275 1.026 0.929 0.400 1.065 
[b]2 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)[/b] 1.149 1.167 1.141 1.006 1.224 1.067 
3 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 1.147 0.982 1.088 1.195 1.207 1.124 
4 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.141 1.343 1.101 1.096 1.636 1.084 
5 Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas) 1.081 1.066 1.025 1.133 0.778 1.043 
6 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.075 1.212 1.011 1.080 1.364 0.898 
7 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 1.067 1.272 1.031 1.016 2.000 0.954 
8 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.063 1.201 1.007 1.029 0.653 0.955 
9 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.054 1.307 1.009 0.912 0.645 1.120 
10 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 1.046 1.194 1.024 1.019 0.517 1.160 
Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB 
11 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida) 1.041 1.164 0.972 0.932 1.609 1.094 
12 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 1.034 1.171 0.989 1.007 1.292 0.965 
[b]13 Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)[/b] 1.031 0.727 1.041 1.368 1.000 0.936 
14 PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1.008 0.822 1.118 1.263 1.000 0.980 
15 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 1.004 1.006 0.947 0.982 1.364 1.095 
16 AT&T Park (San Francisco, California) 0.993 0.681 0.972 1.080 1.049 0.991 
17 Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 0.985 1.184 1.030 0.876 0.600 0.914 
18 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 0.980 0.806 1.016 0.921 1.167 1.020 
19 Metrodome (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 0.963 0.836 0.976 0.947 1.591 0.792 
20 Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri) 0.950 0.887 0.968 0.886 0.752 1.038 
Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB 
21 Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia) 0.946 0.929 1.026 0.994 0.722 0.906 
22 Jacobs Field (Cleveland, Ohio) 0.946 0.866 0.942 0.982 0.786 1.065 
23 RFK Stadium (Washington, D.C.) 0.942 0.859 0.960 0.861 1.370 0.864 
24 McAfee Coliseum (Oakland, California) 0.921 0.852 0.976 1.071 0.931 0.899 
25 Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California) 0.906 0.801 1.025 0.939 0.793 0.957 
26 Shea Stadium (Flushing, New York) 0.902 0.881 0.935 1.003 0.844 1.019 
27 Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) 0.900 1.065 0.930 0.947 0.483 0.934 
28 Dolphin Stadium (Miami, Florida) 0.898 0.881 0.945 0.969 1.405 1.107 
29 Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington) 0.881 0.888 0.895 0.913 0.912 1.073 
30 Petco Park (San Diego, California) 0.860 0.982 0.905 0.767 1.086 1.012

(Note, this is when the Rockies used the humidor)

 

Park Factor - 2005 
Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB 
[b]1 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)[/b] 1.285 1.119 1.254 1.135 1.481 1.035 
2 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.161 1.289 1.117 1.127 1.406 0.931 
3 Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.128 1.263 1.070 1.187 0.530 0.958 
4 Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia) 1.095 0.879 1.061 1.120 1.399 1.014 
5 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.078 1.046 1.045 1.069 1.659 1.041 
6 Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas) 1.076 1.263 1.036 1.032 1.812 0.975 
7 McAfee Coliseum (Oakland, California) 1.064 0.890 1.015 1.127 0.782 0.980 
8 Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) 1.051 1.106 1.083 0.882 1.122 0.891 
9 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.044 1.375 0.972 0.923 0.864 1.086 
10 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 1.039 1.255 1.045 1.071 1.085 0.882 
Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB 
11 PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1.034 0.868 1.058 1.125 1.338 1.018 
12 Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri) 1.028 1.148 1.015 1.062 0.628 0.992 
[b]13 Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)[/b] 1.027 0.886 0.964 1.324 0.890 1.076 
14 Metrodome (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 1.019 0.947 0.972 0.967 0.828 0.897 
15 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.015 1.052 1.009 1.058 1.086 0.954 
16 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 0.992 1.085 0.895 0.877 0.948 1.032 
17 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida) 0.986 0.876 1.001 0.904 1.266 0.991 
18 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 0.972 0.761 1.022 1.157 0.912 0.988 
19 Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington) 0.970 0.844 1.020 0.962 0.608 1.049 
20 AT&T Park (San Francisco, California) 0.970 0.915 0.963 0.908 1.044 0.974 
Rk Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB 
21 Shea Stadium (Flushing, New York) 0.963 0.871 1.005 0.952 0.686 1.013 
22 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 0.959 0.944 1.038 0.887 1.737 1.041 
23 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 0.949 1.195 0.990 0.804 0.926 0.971 
24 Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California) 0.921 0.901 0.951 0.984 0.988 0.983 
25 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 0.901 1.049 0.904 0.977 0.416 1.042 
26 Dolphin Stadium (Miami, Florida) 0.883 0.803 0.925 0.859 1.095 1.114 
27 Jacobs Field (Cleveland, Ohio) 0.880 0.872 0.923 1.043 0.338 1.004 
28 Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 0.876 0.961 0.943 0.824 0.681 1.214 
29 RFK Stadium (Washington, D.C.) 0.860 0.775 0.851 0.888 1.051 0.953 
30 Petco Park (San Diego, California) 0.803 0.750 0.903 0.832 1.331 0.945 

 

(This is when they did not, and the Rockies are NOT using it this year.)

 

 

Lefties seem to do pretty well in the friendly confines. He may not hit 30 HRs, but he does goe the other way with some power. He might hit 40-50 doubles for the Sox.

 

I agree, his average may see a slight rise (about 1 to 2%), but what's left of his power numbers would continue to be chipped at. I'd say he might hit six HR's out of Fenway.

 

(Sorry, can't post links)

[Plumpamania]

I never compared the length or amount of their contracts to Helton's contract. They are overpaid' date=' whether it be for one year or not.[/quote']

 

That's the point. You want to put them in a deal with two of our possibly most overvalued young arms for Helton. Both Tavares and Lowell are FREE AGENTS after the year. I'd rather overpay for one year of them, than six years of Helton. We have a $143,026,214 payroll this year that includes the payment of Edgar Renteria. We will lose $46,550,000 roughly after this season. That gives us a chance to acquire any number of possible players eligible after this season that are not limited but include:

 

1B/OF Adam Dunn

OF Kosuke Fukudome

CF Torii Hunter

SP Jason Jennings

CF Andruw Jones

MR Scott Linebrink

CL Mariano Rivera

SP Jake Westbrook

1B/OF Brad Wilkerson

1B/OF Craig Wilson

SP Carlos Zambrano

 

That's the current list, not naming any non-tendered players or waived or released that could happen. Personally I'd rather instead of dealing for Helton sign Adam Dunn. But that's just me.

[a700hitter]

Wish I could give you a link to Mike and the Mad Dog where it came up. Let me put it this way:

 

Team A trades Player X to Team B with Y amount of cash for Player X to play for Team B. When Team B wants to trade Player X to Team C two years later, Team A is not liable for the payment of Player X on another transaction that they had no consent/input over.

I am glad you are relying on erudite legal authorities such as Mike and the Mad Dog. I don't doubt that these are the terms of ARod's deal and maybe even Unit's deal, but are you saying that this is standard legally required language? Not as far as I know. Do you even have a link to this being part of the negotiations with the Red Sox. If not, your argument is disingenuous. Even if this part of the negotiations with the Red Sox, that doesn't mean it is a requirement. The Red Sox could negotiate that term.

[a700hitter]

Look at the stats again. A .200 fall of in OPS is a major decline.

The result of .....INJURY.

Great point. Since career stats mean a lot when evalutating a player from ages 34 to 41.

I agree. It will be quite pathetic when old man Helton at age 33 trashes Youk age 28. Take the bet if you are so sure of your powers of perception.

I think Helton will outhit Youkilis this year. I'm saying he won't trash him like you claim. Helton will probably have a higher road OPS of .15 to .25 points.

He will trash him. Take the bet. Make me eat my words.

[Plumpamania]

I am glad you are relying on erudite legal authorities such as Mike and the Mad Dog. I don't doubt that these are the terms of ARod's deal and maybe even Unit's deal' date=' but are you saying that this is standard legally required language? Not as far as I know. Do you even have a link to this being part of the negotiations with the Red Sox. If not, your argument is disingenuous. Even if this part of the negotiations with the Red Sox, that doesn't mean it is a requirement. The Red Sox could negotiate that term.[/quote']

 

Fine they persay could negotiate that term. However it is still a bad deal as you've been shown time and time again. I don't understand your hardon for a near middle-aged man that has seen a drastic drop in production.

[a700hitter]

Fine they persay could negotiate that term. However it is still a bad deal as you've been shown time and time again. I don't understand your hardon for a near middle-aged man that has seen a drastic drop in production.

Because he would per se be the third best hitter on our team. That's why. It's that simple. Everything you have pointed to is an irrelevant rationalization.

[Plumpamania]

Because he would per se be the third best hitter on our team. That's why. It's that simple. Everything you have pointed to is an irrelevant rationalization.

 

15 HRs and a pathetic SLG, sure. I'd still rather have Adam Dunn.