Is the Grace Period Over?

[TheKilo]

I'm really getting juiced for baseball season now, so I figured I'd open with a debate here. This was inspired by Plump's thread.

 

It's clear there are many differing opinions about the FO here, whether people defend them (I consider myself to do this almost routinely) and people who are openly critical (a700 and Mr. Crunchy are good examples). Obviously, neither opinion is 100% right and neither is 100% wrong.

 

What is clear is that this front office brought the Red Sox their first world title in 86 years. Yes, there were a lot of players from the Duquette era, but the most important ones, IMO, the ones that put the finishing touches on the title run, were brought in by Theo and Co.

 

Since then, the bad moves have outweighed the good ones. It seemed that every move the FO made from November of '04 on was a questionable one. The latest came about yesterday when in what looked to be a panic move, shifted Papelbon's role (again) to be the teams closer. I am concerned whether or not Paps can hold up the entire season in the role, but we'll just have to wait and see.

 

GOOD MOVES

Signing Ortiz, Millar, Mueller, etc. for what amounted to be chump change

The Curt Schilling trade

Signing Keith Foulke

Having the balls to trade Nomar

The Dave Roberts Trade

Drafting guys like Papelbon, Bucholz, Bowden, etc.

Renteria for Marte

Not giving Pedro the 4th year (I love Petey, but look at his shoulder now if you question it)

Mirabelli for Loretta

 

BAD MOVES

Signing Clement and not Derek Lowe

Signing Renteria

Letting Damon walk (I don't think this was awful, but the team handled the negotiations terribly)

Any and every bullpen signing

Meredith/Bard for Mirabelli (Clear panic move)

 

JURY'S STILL OUT ON THESE ONES

Beckett trade

Crisp trade

Lugo, Drew, Dice-K signings

Not giving Schilling an extension

Papelbon's ever changing role

Bronson for WMP

 

And there's others I have probably missed.

 

In the hit or miss world of baseball transactions, it seems as though the FO has been missing rather than hitting lately. I love Theo, and his eye for position players is pretty good, but he's awful when it comes to constructing a bullpen.

 

The string of bad moves left us with the third place finish last year.

 

My question to Talksox is, has the grace period run out on this front office? How many more questionable moves can they make before change comes about? I haven't seen results from trades that were viewed as "can't miss" by a lot of Red Sox fans and employees. Are people going to continue to be patient with the FO because of 2004, or are people feeling the need for some changes to be made?

 

Personally, if the Sox disappoint this year, I think it'd be time for JWH to re-evaluate what goes on in that front office. It may sound spoiled, or like I think we are entitled to win and be competitive, but with a payroll like the Red Sox have it's the way life is. I criticize the Yankees up and down for their payroll, yet I look at that team and think "They're going to be in the race until the very end." I look at our team, with our increased payroll, and think "We MIGHT be in the race, if x y and z happen." I don't like that. I don't think it's out of the question to think that a team with the resources of the Red Sox should be competitive year in and year out, without any question.

 

Thoughts?

[Soxfan1]

Add Lowe to that list. Also add locking up Big Papi for 4. Jury on the Pena deal too.

[MANNYHOF24]

I agree with soxfan. Looking back we should have signed Lowe instead of Clement, I also think that trading Bronson a proven innings guy for Willy Mo, who really has no where to play this year. I know it happened a year ago but can you imagine our 5th starter being Bronson with Papelbon as our closer. That would be excellent.

[TheKilo]

This thread really isn't a dissection of the moves themselves, but more to try to guage the overall perception of the Front Office.

 

But I'll make the changes.

[jacksonianmarch]

good thread.

 

My 2 cents, completely aside from my allegiance.

 

Grace periods are ********. You win a championship then f*** up the team afterwards, you should be fired. The sox moves were justified at the time, but eventually results are required as is a direction. After 2004, the sox had one hell of a farm and one hell of a team. The team dissolved, which in hindsight looks pretty good. They had a very bright outlook in terms of farm and then made some deals that are bearing fruit for their competitors. The direction of the sox after 2004 was, we fired all cannons and won it all, now we need to reload. After 2005 it was, lets deal away our prospects for players who are certainly no sure thing. After 2006 it was spend a ton yet leave the least expensive area of the team unguarded.

 

If the sox dont make the playoffs this yr, then analysis is needed. If the moves that have Theo's fingerprints on them were to blame (Matsuzaka, Bullpen, Papelbon moved to the pen, etc.) then theo should get shitcanned. Then again, the way things have gone since the sox won look pretty good

[TheKilo]

good thread.

 

My 2 cents, completely aside from my allegiance.

 

Grace periods are ********. You win a championship then f*** up the team afterwards, you should be fired. The sox moves were justified at the time, but eventually results are required as is a direction. After 2004, the sox had one hell of a farm and one hell of a team. The team dissolved, which in hindsight looks pretty good. They had a very bright outlook in terms of farm and then made some deals that are bearing fruit for their competitors. The direction of the sox after 2004 was, we fired all cannons and won it all, now we need to reload. After 2005 it was, lets deal away our prospects for players who are certainly no sure thing. After 2006 it was spend a ton yet leave the least expensive area of the team unguarded.

 

If the sox dont make the playoffs this yr, then analysis is needed. If the moves that have Theo's fingerprints on them were to blame (Matsuzaka, Bullpen, Papelbon moved to the pen, etc.) then theo should get shitcanned. Then again, the way things have gone since the sox won look pretty good

 

Holy s***...we agree somewhat? f***. Now I'm gonna have to change my opinion.

 

Two things though -

 

1. Grace Periods are for the most part worthless, but keep in mind what the title in '04 meant to the city of Boston and all Red Sox fans. I keep hearing things like "Dave Roberts/Keith Foulke/Curt Schilling/etc. will never have to pay for a meal in Boston ever again." Obvioulsy '04 will always be special to us, and that's why I think '04 gave the FO a free pass for the last two years.

 

2. If you've ever read "Feeding the Monster", it paints a picture of just how overly competitive Lucchino is and how his views often clash with Theo's. I have to wonder if the conflict behind closed doors has led to some panic moves that Theo would not have typically made (the shining example being the Mirabelli deal for Bard and Meredith last year).

[NoPepper]

 

What is clear is that this front office brought the Red Sox their first world title in 86 years. Yes, there were a lot of players from the Duquette era, but the most important ones, IMO, the ones that put the finishing touches on the title run, were brought in by Theo and Co.

 

Since then, the bad moves have outweighed the good ones.

 

IMHO, those "finishing touches" in 2004 were not intended to win it all. I'm not saying the players didn't intend to, I'm talking about the FO. I feel that they were throwing in the towel. I know that is exactly how I felt when I heard about the Nomar deal.

 

Picking up Ortiz et al for "chump change" wasn't because we knew something that nobody else did about those players. The FO got lucky.

 

If we didn't win it all in 2004, would anyone think the FO was ever any good?

[TheKilo]

IMHO, those "finishing touches" in 2004 were not intended to win it all. I'm not saying the players didn't intend to, I'm talking about the FO. I feel that they were throwing in the towel. I know that is exactly how I felt when I heard about the Nomar deal.

 

Picking up Ortiz et al for "chump change" wasn't because we knew something that nobody else did about those players. The FO got lucky.

 

If we didn't win it all in 2004, would anyone think the FO was ever any good?

 

Well, they signed an ace pitcher and an ace closer (which, by the way, if we had either in '03 I think we win), so in a way those moves did lead to the title.

 

Trading Nomar was the right move. It upgraded the infield defense, which was absolutely awful up to that point. Fac it, Nomar wasn't happy and it took a lot of guts for Theo trade trade a player people had annointed as a "Boston Icon."

 

Picking up Ortiz, Millar, and Mueller were low risk moves that paid tremendous dividends. You can say they got lucky, but the fact is the FO wanted to sign them and they did. Yes they should feel lucky Ortiz turned into the player he is, but the FO had to think they were all going to contribute.

 

Excellent last point, by the way. If we hadn't won in '04 I guarantee we have a new GM right now, which is really the point of this thread, isn't it?

[jacksonianmarch]

Holy s***...we agree somewhat? f***. Now I'm gonna have to change my opinion.

 

Two things though -

 

1. Grace Periods are for the most part worthless, but keep in mind what the title in '04 meant to the city of Boston and all Red Sox fans. I keep hearing things like "Dave Roberts/Keith Foulke/Curt Schilling/etc. will never have to pay for a meal in Boston ever again." Obvioulsy '04 will always be special to us, and that's why I think '04 gave the FO a free pass for the last two years.

 

2. If you've ever read "Feeding the Monster", it paints a picture of just how overly competitive Lucchino is and how his views often clash with Theo's. I have to wonder if the conflict behind closed doors has led to some panic moves that Theo would not have typically made (the shining example being the Mirabelli deal for Bard and Meredith last year).

 

Kilo, this is why Lucchino needs firing. Theo and Cashman are very similar. Build internally, have a competitive team on the field while the farm bears fruit. Lucchino's urges cost the sox a high level starter, a franchise cornerstone SS, a powerful young 3b, and a very strong middle reliever all under the age of 23. And what do you have for it? Beckett? Coco? Mirabelli? Those were panic moves to replace a departed ace (Pedro) and a departed CFer (Damon). And if Paps moves back to the pen and blows out his shoulder?

 

Nobody knows who is behind what deals. But it sounds like Lucchino is behind the panic moves and maybe he should be shitcanned. Who knows.

[adam123]

I was wanting them to get lowe he was big for us closing ,starting and middle relief . man i wish he was back ..Give me schil , dice-k, beckett, lowe , arroyo , wake , paps closing .. thats what theo needed to do not get willy mo pop up

[TheKilo]

Kilo, this is why Lucchino needs firing. Theo and Cashman are very similar. Build internally, have a competitive team on the field while the farm bears fruit. Lucchino's urges cost the sox a high level starter, a franchise cornerstone SS, a powerful young 3b, and a very strong middle reliever all under the age of 23. And what do you have for it? Beckett? Coco? Mirabelli? Those were panic moves to replace a departed ace (Pedro) and a departed CFer (Damon). And if Paps moves back to the pen and blows out his shoulder?

 

Nobody knows who is behind what deals. But it sounds like Lucchino is behind the panic moves and maybe he should be shitcanned. Who knows.

 

I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know what's going on, but I can't make an assessment of certain deals until I see how they play out.

 

By all accounts, Marte is struggling mightily in Cleveland. But there's still time for him to turn it around. It doesn't take away from the fact I LOVED the deal at the time.

 

Cornerstone SS? Who? Renteria? OCab? They are serviceable, no doubt, but not cornerstone.

 

I think i've made clear I think both the Paps and Mirabelli moves are and were awful ones. However I don't think it's enough to get Lucchino fired, because I don't have enough information to make that claim.

 

If the team struggles, changes should be made.

[NoPepper]

Well' date=' they signed an ace pitcher and an ace closer (which, by the way, if we had either in '03 I think we win), so in a way those moves did lead to the title.[/quote']

 

You may have missed my point. I question the intention of the FO. I concede Shilling, but no way with the rest. I never was a fan of Foulke. Nobody saw that move and said watch out. Just about every team makes one big move. Shilling was ours that off season.

 

Trading Nomar was the right move. It upgraded the infield defense, which was absolutely awful up to that point. Fac it, Nomar wasn't happy and it took a lot of guts for Theo trade trade a player people had annointed as a "Boston Icon."

 

I agree about the guts, but again, question the motive. Do you think the FO was saying to themselves, this move and we make the playoffs? For example, when Cashman got Abreu, what was your reaction? When we traded Nomar, did you feel the same way?

 

Picking up Ortiz, Millar, and Mueller were low risk moves that paid tremendous dividends. You can say they got lucky, but the fact is the FO wanted to sign them and they did. Yes they should feel lucky Ortiz turned into the player he is, but the FO had to think they were all going to contribute.

 

I'll argue they wanted to fill a few holes on the cheap. I was kicked out of many a bar in 2003 for screaming that Ortiz & Mueller should play full time. They finally did, but playing time doesn't lie. They were originally never seen as starters, let alone the key guys to get us into the post season.

 

Excellent last point, by the way. If we hadn't won in '04 I guarantee we have a new GM right now, which is really the point of this thread, isn't it?

 

Yup, and a good one. It woke me out of hibernation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kilo, the cornerstone SS was Hanley.

[MANNYHOF24]

Kilo' date=' the cornerstone SS was Hanley.[/quote']

 

I agree that trading Hanley was a bad move in hignsight, but he never hit more than 6-8 Hrs in the minors and Beckett had/still has the potential to be a 1 starter for the next 5-6 years.

[MANNYHOF24]

I also think the FO realizes the fact that they made several errors last season and in my estimation did a nice job filling those gaps with high priced players. I think they have upgraded tremendously this year and will win at least 10 more games then they did last year. So I still think the FO is doing a decent job. I was excited that losing really pissed them off last year, and they spent some money this offseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

Manny, a 10 game improvement? To a mid 90 win team? I had the sox pegged as a 90 win team with a swing of 5 in the + direction and 10 in the minus prior to Paps being moved back to closer. I think Paps swing still has me thinking the sox are a 90 win team, but now with a +/- 5 margin rather than a +5 -10 margin. Paps will help secure the games they should win. But they still are in one hell of a division with 2 other teams that improved as well.

[MANNYHOF24]

I stand at 95-96 wins. They are so much improved in almost every area. Drew over Nixon, Lugo over gonzo. That should make our offense better, to maybe a 2003-2004 level. I think DiceK is a huge addition, and Beckett should improve. I mean if there weren't injuries last season we probably would have won 92-94 games. Maybe even more.

[TheKilo]

You may have missed my point. I question the intention of the FO. I concede Shilling' date=' but no way with the rest. I never was a fan of Foulke. Nobody saw that move and said watch out. Just about every team makes one big move. Shilling was ours that off season.[/quote']

 

Keith Foulke was a lights out closer years before coming to Boston. He was easily one of the top 5 closers in baseball for the years leading up to 2004, and including 2004. I disagree that no one said "watch out." That was a tremendous signing by the FO. If Keith Foulke is a Red Sox in 2003, we win the WS.

 

 

I agree about the guts, but again, question the motive. Do you think the FO was saying to themselves, this move and we make the playoffs? For example, when Cashman got Abreu, what was your reaction? When we traded Nomar, did you feel the same way?

 

Not exactly the same way, but the FO recognized a need and filled it. Nomar was not very productive for us in '04, and he had become increasingly fragile as time went on. I don't think the FO said to themselves "If we make this move, we make the playoffs", but I do think they said "If we don't do something, we don't make the playoffs."

 

Cashman did a great job in picking up Abreu for nothing.

 

I'll argue they wanted to fill a few holes on the cheap. I was kicked out of many a bar in 2003 for screaming that Ortiz & Mueller should play full time. They finally did, but playing time doesn't lie. They were originally never seen as starters, let alone the key guys to get us into the post season.

 

Understandable, but just because they weren't projected as stars doesn't mean they were excellent moves. No one saw Ortiz coming, just as no one saw Mueller winning the '03 batting title. I'll agree when I thought they were complimentary moves, but at the time we had star quality players in Pedro, Manny, Nomar, and Trot Nixon. These guys were definitely an upgrade over the Jose Offermans of the world.

[TheKilo]

Kilo' date=' the cornerstone SS was Hanley.[/quote']

 

Hanley Ramirez was struggling in AA ball. It wasn't an awful move for the Sox to trade him, especially for a guy like Beckett, who had more star potential than Hanley IMO anyway.

[TheKilo]

I think 95-97 wins is a good estimate if most of the "what if's break the Sox's way."

 

If Drew gets hurt, or if Lugo reverts to second half form last year, or if Dicke-K underperforms, or if Paps doesn't hold up in the closer's role...etc...etc...it could be 2006 part deux.

 

edit - triple post'd. Sorry.

[Fried Neckbones]

I have a couple of quick things to say. First, the Nomar deal was designed to get the team over the hump. Attitude aside, his performance (when he was actually on the field) was suffering. You upgrade the defense, and you upgrade the pitching. It's not a coincidence that they went on a huge tear to close out the '04 season - the staff had more confidence to attack the zone with Cabrerra and Doug (I'm not even going to try) playing behind them. Second, a lot of the non-signings had as much to do with picking up compensatory draft picks as they did with letting people walk. They most likely would not have re-signed most of that crew anyway, but the draft picks made it that much easier. That was the mode they were in at the time - a Theo-driven, plan for the future mode. Also, most of the young'uns were traded away when Lucchino was in charge after Theo snuck out in his gorilla suit, for whatever that's worth. Some people have touched on it and it's got some truth to it - everything that I've seen and read about this organization points to Theo being a plan ahead and for the future minded GM, and Lucchino more of a win now executive. Yes you need both in the case of the Red Sox - look at the furor that was created by finishing 3rd. But when they are at odds with each other then you get a team that is trying to move in two different directions at once, two plans that are interfering with each other, and neither one gets pulled off right.

 

OK, so maybe not so quick points.

[jacksonianmarch]

I stand at 95-96 wins. They are so much improved in almost every area. Drew over Nixon' date=' Lugo over gonzo. That should make our offense better, to maybe a 2003-2004 level. I think DiceK is a huge addition, and Beckett should improve. I mean if there weren't injuries last season we probably would have won 92-94 games. Maybe even more.[/quote']

 

your offense in 2004 had a 9 hitter reaching base at a 37% clip. Your #8 hitter was the defending batting champ. Your #7 hitter was a switch hitting C who broke .300. Your #6 hitter was a .360+OBP hitter in Millar. Need I go on? Right now, the top of the order is not what it was in 2004 (Damon and OCab are better than Lugo and Youk). The middle of the order consists of the same players. The 5-9 were much better in 04. Your lineup is nowhere near as dangerous. In 04, there was no break. In 07, the 3-5 will be formidable, but the rest arent terribly dangerous.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have a couple of quick things to say. First, the Nomar deal was designed to get the team over the hump. Attitude aside, his performance (when he was actually on the field) was suffering. You upgrade the defense, and you upgrade the pitching. It's not a coincidence that they went on a huge tear to close out the '04 season - the staff had more confidence to attack the zone with Cabrerra and Doug (I'm not even going to try) playing behind them. Second, a lot of the non-signings had as much to do with picking up compensatory draft picks as they did with letting people walk. They most likely would not have re-signed most of that crew anyway, but the draft picks made it that much easier. That was the mode they were in at the time - a Theo-driven, plan for the future mode. Also, most of the young'uns were traded away when Lucchino was in charge after Theo snuck out in his gorilla suit, for whatever that's worth. Some people have touched on it and it's got some truth to it - everything that I've seen and read about this organization points to Theo being a plan ahead and for the future minded GM, and Lucchino more of a win now executive. Yes you need both in the case of the Red Sox - look at the furor that was created by finishing 3rd. But when they are at odds with each other then you get a team that is trying to move in two different directions at once, two plans that are interfering with each other, and neither one gets pulled off right.

 

OK, so maybe not so quick points.

 

great post. When both have power you have a rudderless ship. You have to adopt a plan and stick to it. Last yr would have been better for the sox fans to swallow if they had been building for the future (ie losing with kids, while trying to season them) rather than throwing retreads out there soaking up the experience that could have been used on the young uns.

[MANNYHOF24]

your offense in 2004 had a 9 hitter reaching base at a 37% clip. Your #8 hitter was the defending batting champ. Your #7 hitter was a switch hitting C who broke .300. Your #6 hitter was a .360+OBP hitter in Millar. Need I go on? Right now' date=' the top of the order is not what it was in 2004 (Damon and OCab are better than Lugo and Youk). The middle of the order consists of the same players. The 5-9 were much better in 04. Your lineup is nowhere near as dangerous. In 04, there was no break. In 07, the 3-5 will be formidable, but the rest arent terribly dangerous.[/quote']

 

Maybe so, but the lineup is still much imporved from last season, and were we not 5th in the AL in runs scored last year?

[Mr Crunchy]

revisonist history is my favorite class

just remember before derek lowe did his sandy koufax impersonaion in october 04 helost his starting gig by getting hammered all summer and in september got pasted in ny and didnt finish 3 innings

his era was 5 he wasnt sober very much and his personal life was a disaster

la was a good move for him,theo didnt even offer him a janitors job

 

middle positions are the key to defense i think we all agree on this

we have used different ss and 2b every single year since 04

we paid 19M for 1 year of renteria,we traded the nl rookie of the year and we traded the nl batting champion as well as letting the silky smooth ocab walk away without an offer

renteria was the biggest disappointment i feel

theo planned on him being here for the long haul and the man just folded like a scared kitten

anyway

last years pair were awesome,perhaps the best ive seen defensivly and they were cheap,problem was agons bat and lorettas age and lack of pop,even still i wouldve kept them together this year rather than dropping huge coin on lugo and giving duddy the job without serious competetion

 

coco is the question now

can he be a .300 hitter with a little power and a lot of speed

can he cover spacious centerfield and will his feminine arm kill us

theyre running on him and really exploiting this so far this spring

i think he bounces back and has a decent offensive year but the arm will not improve no matter what so he neds to position himself properly

drew should help him as nixon was a statue out there over the last few seasons

come july you may have 3 superstar outfielders on the block so hes got 3 mos to get it done

[a700hitter]

I agree with every thing in your post. One thing you left out was that Crisp is now the issue because they let the catalyst, Damon walk to our chief rivals for what now looks like very reasonable coin.

[jacksonianmarch]

without Johnny Damon last yr, the race is much more interesting.

[Mr Crunchy]

damon was arguably the yanks mvp

i thought crisp would be a solid replacement and damon would break down

that boy got balls of steele and he showed them again

 

it wasnt the money it was the take it or leave it offer that pissed me off

i feel if money were equel he wouldve split anyways becuase his wife needs a bigger stage to start her porno career

[a700hitter]

it wasnt the money it was the take it or leave it offer that pissed me off

i feel if money were equel he wouldve split anyways becuase his wife needs a bigger stage to start her porno career

The take-it- or-leave-it strategy was Cashman's not Damon's. It turned out to be a very effective negotiating technique as Damon and Boras could not be certain that the Red Sox would increase their offer. Theo and the twins got outmaneuvered big time in those negotiations. Cashman used the take-it-or-leave-it technique during the season when they offered the Phillies essentially no prospects for Abreu but agreed to pick up all of his salary. The Red Sox were demanding that the Phils pick up $6million. Theo looked like a novice once again. They floated a damage control story in the press about how taking all of Abreau's salary would in reality hav cost $27 million due to the cap, etc. I hope by now everyone realizes that it was a BS damage control story, because we are paying J.D. Drew a load of dough for 4 years. Abreau's commitment was one year and he is on the field about 50 more games each year than is Drew.

 

Edit: As to Damon's wife, I think if the $ was equal, he would have stayed in Boston because the wife was a pseudo-celebrity in Boston. She got her face on TV etc. In NY, she's just another pole-dancer.

[example1]

This thread really isn't a dissection of the moves themselves, but more to try to guage the overall perception of the Front Office.

 

But I'll make the changes.

 

This front office has been in charge during a time where the Red Sox were more successful than any in my lifetime. They spend absurd amounts of money and bring in players that we will tune in day in and day out to watch. Between the weird personalities of the ownership group to the hype around Theo Epstein, it is all stuff that is currently adding to the Red Sox mystique.

 

Personally, I think it is absurd to put all the blame on the FO when players get injured or when they give up a HR in the 7th game of an ALCS. Not that anyone was on them for Boone, but often seasons ride on one pitch or one at bat and that has certainly been the case for the past few years.

 

On the field and off the Sox are one of the top 3 teams in baseball. They are interesting and very talented and part of that is the FO and their use of consultants like Bill James. All of this stuff has been fascinating and entertaining to watch the past few years and I hope it will continue.