So what are we expecting?!?

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Alright alright...so it seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeems (knock on wood)...that the Sox are going to have Daisuke in the rotation for this coming year. I know we've touched on it in other threads...but I wanted a thread all its own to get everybody's opinion on what, exactly, we're expecting out of this kid in his first year this side of the pond. I'm with everyone else in that he's looked EXTREMELY impressive in all the highlights I've seen of him...but we also can't forget that Japanese pitchers coming over into "our" league and "our" style of play haven't turned into marquee superstars right away, if at all. Assuming that Tek's knowledge of big league hitters and his ability to convey this knowledge extends beyond language barriers, I'm looking for 14 wins and an ERA slightly over 4 coming from D-Mat this year. I think he'll be in the top 15 pitchers in the majors in strikeouts, as I have always felt that pitchers have an advantage over hitters when they first face each other...and, thusly, that leads to a lot of strikeouts. I'm also hoping he has the ability to eat innings and save our suspect-to-say-the-least bullpen...but you can't help but think that the Sox are going to be EXTREMELY careful with their new 26 year-old investment, so maybe he won't eat as many innings as I hope. What's everyone else think?

[Fried Neckbones]

I'm with you in regard to the win total and the ERA - 14 and just over 4 sounds reasonable. As far as the strikeouts go, in the video of him vs the MLB "all-stars" in '04 he was getting a lot of contact outs - mostly ground balls. I know that's a small sample, but it seems indicative that he can adjust his style based on who he is facing. I think MLB hitters swing a bit more freely than NPB hitters, so his k's could be somewhat below what he usually puts up. And for innings, I think we can expect 200+ out of him - his delivery and mechanics are so smooth (he has worked with Japanese scientists to figure it out for cripes' sake) and he knows what he is doing, so I don't think the FO will baby his arm as much as they would with a younger "rookie" starter.

[TheKilo]

Alright alright...so it seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeems (knock on wood)...that the Sox are going to have Daisuke in the rotation for this coming year. I know we've touched on it in other threads...but I wanted a thread all its own to get everybody's opinion on what' date=' exactly, we're expecting out of this kid in his first year this side of the pond. I'm with everyone else in that he's looked EXTREMELY impressive in all the highlights I've seen of him...but we also can't forget that Japanese pitchers coming over into "our" league and "our" style of play haven't turned into marquee superstars right away, if at all. Assuming that Tek's knowledge of big league hitters and his ability to convey this knowledge extends beyond language barriers, I'm looking for 14 wins and an ERA slightly over 4 coming from D-Mat this year. I think he'll be in the top 15 pitchers in the majors in strikeouts, as I have always felt that pitchers have an advantage over hitters when they first face each other...and, thusly, that leads to a lot of strikeouts. I'm also hoping he has the ability to eat innings and save our suspect-to-say-the-least bullpen...but you can't help but think that the Sox are going to be EXTREMELY careful with their new 26 year-old investment, so maybe he won't eat as many innings as I hope. What's everyone else think?[/quote']

 

 

I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 13-15 wins, 4.20 ERA is well within reach.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I just figure that the Sox obviously see SOMETHING in J.D. Drew that necessitates $14 million a year...so giving them the benefit of the doubt and saying that being able to see things like that are what make them GMs and me just some college bum...with Drew, Ramirez, Ortiz, and now Lugo...this team should put up something ridiculous like 7 runs a game...Helen freaking Keller should be able to win 14 games with that kind of support . I hope Daisuke's approximate 4.20 ERA falls over the course of his 6 years here. Should be an interesting season!

[god is a redsox FAN]

He's heading back to boson to day with Red Sox officials to get physical testing, and checked up. So I'm thinkin that he'll become a redsox before thursday. It seems just a matter of time. A 6 year deal, and his agent thinks he should get 11 mil a year.

[adam123]

i think he will be nomo esq.... first yr hitters wont be able to hit him than i couple of yrs hell come back to earth .. cant wait to see d- mat vs matsui .. that will be great

[HeadOfSoxNation]

i think he will be nomo esq.... first yr hitters wont be able to hit him than i couple of yrs hell come back to earth .. cant wait to see d- mat vs matsui .. that will be great

 

Did these two every face each other in Japan? D-Mat is only 26 and Matsui has been over here a while now...

[adam123]

Did these two every face each other in Japan? D-Mat is only 26 and Matsui has been over here a while now...

 

they were actually eithr rivals or they were teammate cant remember ... just a new twist to yankees red sox .. i am just glad it got done now i can stop taking blood pressure pills :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: nice B by the way

[jacksonianmarch]

I think I predicted 14-10 4.10 era in just under 200 innings pitched as I expect the sox to handle him with kid gloves in yr 1.

[adam123]

I think I predicted 14-10 4.10 era in just under 200 innings pitched as I expect the sox to handle him with kid gloves in yr 1.

 

i dont think he will have double diget losses .. 14 and 7 .. 389 era .. sounds good

[jacksonianmarch]

I am not predicting the sox offense to be as good as you may think. Also, I expect that pen to paint Matsuzaka with some runs that he may not have earned. Overall, I think Matsuzaka's individual performance will be rather good, but I think his team derived stats will be hurt in yr 1.

[jacksonianmarch]

i dont think he will have double diget losses .. 14 and 7 .. 389 era .. sounds good

 

3.89 era puts him in with the league leaders. I can see him having a rough first half and settling in later.

[schillingouttheks]

i dont think he will have double diget losses .. 14 and 7 .. 389 era .. sounds good

 

A sub-4 ERA in his first season in the AL East seems a little more like wishful thinking. Maybe once he's adjusted, but a 3.89 coming out of the gate? I don't think so.

[jacksonianmarch]

I must say, good job today guys. Most of the predictions are very reasonable. I havent seen one 20+ win or sub 3 era on here. SOLID work.

[Bud]

i think he will be nomo esq.... first yr hitters wont be able to hit him than i couple of yrs hell come back to earth .. cant wait to see d- mat vs matsui .. that will be great

 

I think that unlike Nomo Daisuke will be a top of the line pitcher for years

[schillingouttheks]

I must say' date=' good job today guys. Most of the predictions are very reasonable. I havent seen one 20+ win or sub 3 era on here. SOLID work.[/quote']

 

How I would LOVE to see that.

[riverside sluggers]

I must say' date=' good job today guys. Most of the predictions are very reasonable. I havent seen one 20+ win or sub 3 era on here. SOLID work.[/quote']

 

Skip Bayliss on Cold Pizza said he's expecting an 18-8 season with a 2.89 ERA. Tony Masarotti took a more modest approach and said "13-6, 13-7 with an ERA around 4"

[BoSox34]

He will have between 16-18 wins with an ERA somewhere around 3.30.

[He Hate Me]

I think that unlike Nomo Daisuke will be a top of the line pitcher for years

 

Hideo Nomo has a career 4.13 ERA and averaged almost a strikeout per inning. He had horrible control issues, but those kind of numbers in today's market would put him at probably $15m per year, and would make him the #2 guy in your rotation. Keep in mind the majority of these numbers are from 1995-2003, during the height of the steroids era

[jacksonianmarch]

Skip Bayless is a retard if he truly thinks he will have an era a half a run better than Roy Halladay. 16-18 wins in Boston is going to be tough without a bullpen and a 3.3 era in the ALE would be magical. I think that is his peak, and in 2-3 yrs, I would not be surprised if those are his numbers, 16-18 wins and 3.3 era, but at no point do I see him dropping below 3 in this day and age. Excuse me while I go vomit.

[Texas_Red_Sox_Fan]

17-5 season with a 3.00 ERA and two big wins against the Freaking Yankees...that is all I expect.

[jacksonianmarch]

17-5 season with a 3.00 ERA and two big wins against the Freaking Yankees...that is all I expect.

 

sigh. 3era is all you expect? You expect him to be second to Johan Santana in the AL ERA chase? WOW. Talk about lofty and unreasonable expectations.

[schillingouttheks]

17-5 season with a 3.00 ERA and two big wins against the Freaking Yankees...that is all I expect.

 

You make it sound like you have low expectations..

 

Those numbers are Cy Young candidate worthy. I'm not saying it won't happen...it could, it just seems unreasonable to expect out of him in his first year.

[adam123]

Skip Bayliss on Cold Pizza said he's expecting an 18-8 season with a 2.89 ERA. Tony Masarotti took a more modest approach and said "13-6' date=' 13-7 with an ERA around 4"[/quote']

 

skip bayless is a chode ..that guy talks outta his ass

[HeadOfSoxNation]

skip bayless is a chode ..that guy talks outta his ass

 

Seriously...does anyone even like Skip Bayless? I gotta say...it's very seldom I experience as much dissapointment as I do when I know I'm going to be in the car for a while during Jim Rome, and I flip it on to hear Skip freaking Bayless hosting on Jim's days off...such a letdown. I'd rather listen to Steven A. Smith talk sports than Skip Bayless, and I'd rather watch puppies be tortured than EVER listen to Steven A. Smith.

[yeszir]

I expect nothing short of 30 perfect games.

[TedWilliams101]

Are you crazy? 30 perfect games! Yuk. If he doesn't throw at least 32 perfect games hes a waist.....

 

Honestly, I don't know what to expect from this kid. I think it is very possible he has upwards of 16 wins and an era less than 3, but I don't know. Thats hard. He has great stuff though. Top notch command, great velocity, unbelievable breaking pitches, he's 26, and he seems like he has nerves of steel (World baseball classic MVP and he works his ass off). He also throws 6-7 pitches, at least 3 of which can be considered his out-pitch. I'm real excited to see this kid pitch at Fenway.

[Rdsxmbnt]

15-7 3.55 ERA

[BSN07]

20-2 with a 2.15 ERA 200innings and 300 K's....

 

 

Just joking, had to put that one out there for Jackson:D

 

I expect 14-16 wins, 5-7 losses 3.5-4.5 ERA 170-200 innings and 175-200 Ks, which is solid #2 stats. And I think that would be great for a first year, those numbers he might be in the ROY conversation, but I don't think guys from Japan should be eligable, but thats just me, I'm just glad hes on the team, and for 8.5 million a year for 6 years even if this guy only gets 11 wins a year its not a bust, because Meche gets 11M a year and he only wins like 11 games if hes lucky:thumbsup:

[jacksonianmarch]

20-2 with a 2.15 ERA 200innings and 300 K's....

 

 

Just joking, had to put that one out there for Jackson:D

 

I expect 14-16 wins, 5-7 losses 3.5-4.5 ERA 170-200 innings and 175-200 Ks, which is solid #2 stats. And I think that would be great for a first year, those numbers he might be in the ROY conversation, but I don't think guys from Japan should be eligable, but thats just me, I'm just glad hes on the team, and for 8.5 million a year for 6 years even if this guy only gets 11 wins a year its not a bust, because Meche gets 11M a year and he only wins like 11 games if hes lucky:thumbsup:

 

5-7 losses is something I dont see. I see a lot of decisions in his future as I think that pen is the paintin type. Remember, losses and wins are very dependent on offense and bullpen. I think a bunch of his wins will be blown by the pen and a bunch of his losses will be painted on. If you had a solid pen, then 5-7 losses is realistic. But I see a number creeping in towards double digits.