Ted Lilly to the Cubs

[jacksonianmarch]

The Cubs have reached a preliminary agreement with left-hander Ted Lilly on a four-year, $40 million contract, FOXSports.com has learned.

[Cityofchampions33]

(Borat voice) verrryy niiice

[AirPantapas]

Who is left for the Yankees, no one

[jacksonianmarch]

pettitte

[BoSox21]

great news. not only is Lilly out of the division, he's out of the entire league

[Beckett95]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6246392

 

thank god he's gone to the NL

[BoSox34]

Good pickup for the Cubs. Hopefully this is the year with the signings of all these studs.

[Beckett95]

i guess the Yankees weren't really interested in Lilly. They better sign Pettite before theres noone left

 

RJ

Mussina

Pettite

Wang

Igawa

[jacksonianmarch]

i guess the Yankees weren't really interested in Lilly. They better sign Pettite before theres noone left

 

RJ

Mussina

Pettite

Wang

Igawa

 

that is a pretty good rotation.

[kreinbihl34]

It's all right, Wang is the only stand out. I think RJ is going to slowly fade out and retire after this season. Also as much as Moose is a professional there's going to be regression. Igawa might have a good first half, but will be beat around the second, still I see a 14-9, 14-10 record in the making. Finally I see Pettite staying at home in Houston, maybe the Yankees will just outbid and get Zito.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's all right' date=' Wang is the only stand out. I think RJ is going to slowly fade out and retire after this season. Also as much as Moose is a professional there's going to be regression. Igawa might have a good first half, but will be beat around the second, still I see a 14-9, 14-10 record in the making. Finally I see Pettite staying at home in Houston, maybe the Yankees will just outbid and get Zito.[/quote']

 

I dont see too much regression in Mussina unless he gets hurt. His regression the previous yrs was due to his reliance on a large differential between his breaking stuff and his heater. Last season he slowed down his slow stuff to make him less velocity dependent and he became much more effective. Him and Wang are a good top to a rotation, but I have my doubts on RJ and have no idea other than durability about Igawa. They need another #2 or #3 in that rotation. They need a guy who will not be here for too long. And a lefty in yankee stadium is always nice. Pettitte fits.

 

If the yankees go out and get Pettitte then they have a good starting 5 and outstanding depth, both in high level prospects in AAA and in Pavano, Karstens and Rasner. That is what is important. The yankees were extraordinarily healthy in the rotation last yr and with Mussina and RJ, you have to have depth. They will have that. Now if they dont get Pettitte then they will be relying on those guys which is not a recipe for success in 2007 (maybe 08).

[Gom]

Jacksonian...Mussina will decline. As will Schilling and Johnson. You can't stay the same after 35, unless your name is Roger.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacksonian...Mussina will decline. As will Schilling and Johnson. You can't stay the same after 35' date=' unless your name is Roger.[/quote']

 

get off Roger's pole for a second, okay? Look at the successful pitchers of our time after their stuff starts declining. Guys like Johnson are guys who refuse to adapt to their ability. They fall hardest because with their fastball goes their careers. The guys who develop their off speed stuff while they are young are the guys who adapt well to change. As you age, that fastball loses some giddyup and Mussina was hurt big time in this category in 04 and 05. There was a stat on a yankee broadcast in early 06 that went something like this.

 

In 2005, Mike Mussina's ERA was 6+ in games where his hardest fastball topped out less than 90mph. On days when he was 90+, his era was sub 3. It was something like that. Now, if you watched games last yr, you would see that he very rarely broke 90mph. So his decline would have been enormously precipitous last season had he not altered his stuff. He used to throw the knuckle-curve at 70-75mph when he had the 92-94mph fastball. Once his fastball started topping out at 85-88, that knuckle curve was a little easier to find. Also, Mussina throws a 12-6 curve and a slider, both of which are faster than his knuckle-curve and he had seldom used his changeup. Last season, he slowed his knuckle curve into the low to mid 60s and used the change very often. He was dynamite. I am not saying he isnt going to decline, but I think he may have bought himself a few yrs by doing this. Now if RJ would only do the same, then maybe the yankees could have a solid staff. At the same time, Mussina has been on the DL at some point in the last 3 seasons. My prediction on Mussina is that he will be successful for the rest of his career. But unlike most who leave because their stuff just flat out sucks, he will end up leaving because his body betrays him. The writing is on the wall, yankee fans just hope that he can hold out for 2 more yrs.

[Mr Crunchy]

the rotation when including petitte makes the 1998 all star staff nearly complete

their only missing piece is petey

 

rj is failing fast

petitte really didnt do well in houston of all places

mussina is steady but declining

wang is their best pitcher i'd say

the other guy??

i dont know

 

we have our own issues here

[CrespoBlows]

that is a pretty good rotation.

 

But the Red Sox rotation is just average?

[jacksonianmarch]

the rotation when including petitte makes the 1998 all star staff nearly complete

their only missing piece is petey

 

rj is failing fast

petitte really didnt do well in houston of all places

mussina is steady but declining

wang is their best pitcher i'd say

the other guy??

i dont know

 

we have our own issues here

 

Mr C, declining is not the word I'd use for Mussina. After 2 yrs of 4+ eras in 2004 and 2005 he posted a 3.51. That is an incline if anything.

 

Johnson is very frustrating. I watched almost all of his starts last season. He had 2 or 3 starts where he started using his splitter. A pitch that was in the 70s with slight bite but it was enough of a change to make him effective. He then goes to Boston, his first splitter he throws ends up on the street off Manny's bat and he never threw it again for the season. If he can develop that splitter to be used 10% of the time, he will be very effective again. But at 43, he cannot rely on an inconsistent fastball (anywhere from 91-98 last season) and a slider that bites or doesnt bite at nearly the same speed (that slider was anywhere from 80-90mph last season). He needs an off speed pitch and thus far he has refused to use it. If he uses it more often, then I'd expect him to drop that era into the low 4's. If not, he will fly past 5 on the ERA charts this season.

 

Pettitte is a guy who you have misjudged. His 2005 campaign was brilliant. Low 2's era and ate a ton of innings. He struggled in the first half of last season, but was brilliant again after the AS break while the stros were fighting for their playoff lives. The one thing about Pettitte is that he is not really an injury labelled guy. He will go 200+ IP and he has a yankee pedigree. He is also 34 and with a huge frame like he has and a strong work ethic, he should still be in his prime. If he comes back to NY, I'd expect 220IP 15-20 wins and an ERA right around 4-4.2. That would be enough of a bridge to get to the young kids. Right now, Sanchez, Clippard, and Hughes are very green. Bringing them up this yr would be akin to the Mutts bringing up the big 3 way too early and ruining all of them. Buying 1-2 yrs could be the difference between having 3 young kids who come up and fill out the rotation admirably or 3 guys rushed too fast and ruined. Pettitte on a short term deal fixes that last hole.