Pitching staff projections for 07'

[jacksonianmarch]

Well neither has the Sox's' date=' yet you feel the need to comment on every single predicition.[/quote']

 

because every single prediction is completely wrong. There is no way the sox will finish 2007 with 4 guys over 200IP, with 4 guys with era's sub 4, and with a total staff +/- of 31 games over. The most recent example of great pitching, the 2005 white sox were 29 games over .500 in their top 5, and they were fantastic. This rotation is not the 2005 white sox.

[Cocos Disciples]

it hasnt been finalized yet.

 

Of those that are,

 

Wang 18-9 220IP 3.50ERA

Mussina 15-10 180IP 3.90ERA

Johnson 15-10 200IP 4.80ERA if healthy

Igawa not sure here but likely 12-10 200IP 4.70ERA

Pavano? I cannot even speculate. Could be anything from spectacular to being traded to being horrible.

 

Hmm...I'd say Wang's is a little high. Mussina's is probably about right. I'd say Johnson still has some stuff left in him, he could post a little lower ERA. Igawa, thats about right...and I don't think Pavano will be in your original rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

The biggest thing that this rotation can give the yankees is innings. The bullpen is going to be the strength of this team with the infusion of young power arms in Bruney and Britton and one more yr of maturation of Cox, Beam and others. If they can limit their burden, then they can slug their way and close their way to another division title. Needless to say, that rotation will not get them anywhere, but if the cardinals can win with that horrible rotation then who knows.

[TheKilo]

it hasnt been finalized yet.

 

Of those that are,

 

Wang 18-9 220IP 3.50ERA

Mussina 15-10 180IP 3.90ERA

Johnson 15-10 200IP 4.80ERA if healthy

Igawa not sure here but likely 12-10 200IP 4.70ERA

Pavano? I cannot even speculate. Could be anything from spectacular to being traded to being horrible.

 

So you have every Yankee starter above .500, a total of 19 games over .500 (for 4 guys!!!) and 3 of them pitch 200 innings.

 

Masterful.

 

The biggest thing that this rotation can give the yankees is innings. The bullpen is going to be the strength of this team with the infusion of young power arms in Bruney and Britton and one more yr of maturation of Cox' date=' Beam and others. If they can limit their burden, then they can slug their way and close their way to another division title. Needless to say, that rotation will not get them anywhere, but if the cardinals can win with that horrible rotation then who knows.[/quote']

 

I also think if you're relying on guys like Brian Bruney and TJ Beam, your pen is a big question mark too.

 

You sit and hate on people for making predictions that they seemingly pulled out of their ass, and I agree with you that they are unrealistic, but to then turn around and do the same thing is kind of funny to me.

[jacksonianmarch]

To put that into perspective, the yankees had the 11th highest relief IP of any team in the majors. That may sound like nothing, but when you consider that the yankees won 97 games, then most of those relief innings were piled onto guys in high pressure situations. Limit the relief innings and power arms like Farnsworth, Proctor, Rivera, Bruney, Britton, Beam, et al will stay fresh and be more effective.

 

Last season, the yankees got 98 starts and 619.7IP from their top 3 pitchers. That is fantastic at an average IP/start of 6.3IP. Then how did they end up with 510IP from relievers? How were they 11th in baseball in relief innings? Because their #4 was Jaret Wright who took the bump 27 times and threw 136.1IP. That is an average of 5IP per start. Then, they had a mishmash of other starters who combined to throw 177.2IP in 36 starts for an average of 4.9IP per start.

 

Now if you took those 63 starts and averaged them out to 6IP per start, you save the pen 64 innings. Doesnt sound like much, but it would take them from 11th most to 3rd fewest bullpen innings pitched. Fresher pen, especially when it is filled with hard throwing power relievers is a recipe for success.

[jacksonianmarch]

So you have every Yankee starter above .500, a total of 19 games over .500 (for 4 guys!!!) and 3 of them pitch 200 innings.

 

Masterful.

 

 

 

I also think if you're relying on guys like Brian Bruney and TJ Beam, your pen is a big question mark too.

 

You sit and hate on people for making predictions that they seemingly pulled out of their ass, and I agree with you that they are unrealistic, but to then turn around and do the same thing is kind of funny to me.

 

Honestly, take the homerism out of your head and think about things rationally for once please.

 

19 games over .500 for 4 guys is being on the low side with the yankees. You have to consider that wins for the sox starters are going to be tougher because they dont have a closer at this time and the bullpen is awful. Consider that the yankee rotation was 32 games over .500 last yr and it sucked (to put it nicely) is more an indictment on the offense and closer than anything. The sox have problems in both areas right now.

 

At the same time, Igawa has a history of being over 200IP which is essentially what he has done for the past 6 seasons. Johnson has done one thing well in NY, and that is eat innings (over 200 for the 2nd time in 2 yrs for the yanks).

 

As for the yankees pen being a question mark. Dude, have you seen anything the past few yrs? Have you watched the sox pen crumble or have you blocked it out of your mind. The Yankees have a lights out closer whose decline is always predicted yet perennially proven wrong. They have a league average set-up man and one of the best "utility" relievers in the game with the emergence of Proctor. Those 3 guys will have heavy workloads. Bruney will be used to supplement. In case you had your head in the sand, you would have seen how great he was in his time in NY. He was cut in Arizona because his velocity dropped by 10mph. Why? Because he developed dead arm in ST and was worked too hard early on. Then he goes to NY and starts throwing 98-100mph again and puts a 0.87ERA on the board in 20.2IP. Britton threw over 50 innings in the AL East last yr and had an era in the 3.5 range. I just rattled off 5 names that had success in the pen for the yankees last yr. Oh, and Myers was a solid matchup lefty. There is 6. How many will the yankees need out there? They are said to be entertaining the thought of 13 pitchers, so long men/mop-up/spot starters in Karstens and Rasner make the pen and voila, you have 13. That pen is stacked and then there is Beam, possibly Villone, Cox etc getting ready. That pen is loaded.

 

As for every yankees starter over .500, well, that is more because of the offense and pen than anything else. RJ's era was 5 last yr and he was well over .500. Also, the yankees had 3 guys at or above 200IP last yr. The addition of Igawa, a perennial 200IP pitcher in japan, should make that 4. There is precedent.

 

For the sox, you have Schilling and Beckett who will surpass 200IP barring injury. Papelbon is coming off an injury and being stretched out from closing, he isnt hitting 200 innings if his life depended on it. Matsuzaka made 200IP once in the past 5 yrs, so betting on him doing so in his first yr in the ALE is shaky at best. And the funny thing is, the one guy I would peg for 200IP easy is the perennial 200IP pitcher (when not having a freak injury or being in the pen) is wakefield and he wasnt pegged for 200IP. Call it what you want, but I think I was a lot less biased in my predictions than most.

[riverside sluggers]

Why didnt you just say this...

 

Yankees pitching will rock

Sox pitching will suck

 

Compact Yankees glorification rather than an essay I had to get my reading glasses for

 

I also love that quote about how the Sox pitchers will find it tougher to get wins right now because they dont have a closer and shape of their bullpen... You dont say? The Sox arent going to make any more moves and go with a bullpen of Snyder, Tavarez, Lopez, Delcarmen, Hansen and Timlin as our closer? Thanks for clearing that up for me

[TheKilo]

Honestly, take the homerism out of your head and think about things rationally for once please.

 

19 games over .500 for 4 guys is being on the low side with the yankees. You have to consider that wins for the sox starters are going to be tougher because they dont have a closer at this time and the bullpen is awful. Consider that the yankee rotation was 32 games over .500 last yr and it sucked (to put it nicely) is more an indictment on the offense and closer than anything. The sox have problems in both areas right now.

 

At the same time, Igawa has a history of being over 200IP which is essentially what he has done for the past 6 seasons. Johnson has done one thing well in NY, and that is eat innings (over 200 for the 2nd time in 2 yrs for the yanks).

 

As for the yankees pen being a question mark. Dude, have you seen anything the past few yrs? Have you watched the sox pen crumble or have you blocked it out of your mind. The Yankees have a lights out closer whose decline is always predicted yet perennially proven wrong. They have a league average set-up man and one of the best "utility" relievers in the game with the emergence of Proctor. Those 3 guys will have heavy workloads. Bruney will be used to supplement. In case you had your head in the sand, you would have seen how great he was in his time in NY. He was cut in Arizona because his velocity dropped by 10mph. Why? Because he developed dead arm in ST and was worked too hard early on. Then he goes to NY and starts throwing 98-100mph again and puts a 0.87ERA on the board in 20.2IP. Britton threw over 50 innings in the AL East last yr and had an era in the 3.5 range. I just rattled off 5 names that had success in the pen for the yankees last yr. Oh, and Myers was a solid matchup lefty. There is 6. How many will the yankees need out there? They are said to be entertaining the thought of 13 pitchers, so long men/mop-up/spot starters in Karstens and Rasner make the pen and voila, you have 13. That pen is stacked and then there is Beam, possibly Villone, Cox etc getting ready. That pen is loaded.

 

As for every yankees starter over .500, well, that is more because of the offense and pen than anything else. RJ's era was 5 last yr and he was well over .500. Also, the yankees had 3 guys at or above 200IP last yr. The addition of Igawa, a perennial 200IP pitcher in japan, should make that 4. There is precedent.

 

For the sox, you have Schilling and Beckett who will surpass 200IP barring injury. Papelbon is coming off an injury and being stretched out from closing, he isnt hitting 200 innings if his life depended on it. Matsuzaka made 200IP once in the past 5 yrs, so betting on him doing so in his first yr in the ALE is shaky at best. And the funny thing is, the one guy I would peg for 200IP easy is the perennial 200IP pitcher (when not having a freak injury or being in the pen) is wakefield and he wasnt pegged for 200IP. Call it what you want, but I think I was a lot less biased in my predictions than most.

 

 

 

LOL @ YOU CALLING ME A HOMER.

 

Seriously though, the Sox's pen is awful...but outside of Mo there isn't a Yankee reliever that should really scare anyone.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why didnt you just say this...

 

Yankees pitching will rock

Sox pitching will suck

 

Compact Yankees glorification rather than an essay I had to get my reading glasses for

 

I also love that quote about how the Sox pitchers will find it tougher to get wins right now because they dont have a closer and shape of their bullpen... You dont say? The Sox arent going to make any more moves and go with a bullpen of Snyder, Tavarez, Lopez, Delcarmen, Hansen and Timlin as our closer? Thanks for clearing that up for me

 

I never said that. I have the yankees 3 and 4 starters having era's close to 5 and the 5 starter is not even useful to speculate. If you find my predictions on the sox rotation, you will see that I was a lot more favorable to them than I was to the yankee rotation. The only thing I think the yankee rotation will surpass the sox in is the durability category as there is precedent for 4 of their starters to come near or surpass 200IP.

 

At the same time, right now is all we have. I cannot speculate on the red sox possibilities in the pen or in the lineup until something is finished. While on the yankees side, they have a very nasty offense and a loaded pen already. They are auditioning for a right handed 1b, that is it, and he will likely be hitting 8 or 9. Right now the sox are entertaining dealing the best hitter they have had since Teddy Ballgame and would essentially get them pitching in return rather than a bopper.

[jacksonianmarch]

Now that the rotation is finalized, figured we talk about it in a dedicated thread started a little bit ago.

 

1. Curt Schilling is about as durable as they come, but he finally started to wear down at the end of the yr last yr. Will this trend continue? K rate was the same as his last full yr in the rotation and as always he is a location animal. One thing that really sticks out at me on him is his BAA. In 2004, it was .239, last yr it was .276. This might be a function of time catching up to him or due to him pitching injured late. If this trend continues, then he will have to reinvent himself.

 

2. Josh Beckett was finally durable last season, amassing 200IP for the first time in his career. One problem, he sucked. Is he sacrificing performance for durability? Who knows. His BAA only jumped 9 points, but his K/9 dropped by nearly 1.5. His BB/9 was only mildly increased by 0.3 and his K/BB dropped to a career low 2.14. What is simply unfathomable, though is the HR rate. He gave up 3 less HRs last yr than he did in his previous 3 seasons COMBINED. 36 HRs up from 14 a year ago. That is bad and shows that he lives and dies by the heat. If the kid doesnt find a way to get comfortable with an off speed pitch, then he might be better served as a closer.

 

3. John Papelbon is a f***ing beast. Animal on the mound as a closer. But a late season scare and now a return to the rotation may be a blessing or a curse. The guy seemed to average about 3BB/9IP in the minors and in his short stint as a starter in 2005, he averaged 4.5BB/9IP. As a closer last season, he was at 1.72BB/9IP. You can assume the walk total will rise, as will the hits now, because the guy will be going to full exhaustion instead of in short bursts of magnificence. Overall, one of the 2 big ??'s in the sox rotation. Can he stay durable? Can he develop a 3rd plus pitch to use for the second or third time through a lineup? Who knows.

 

4. Daisuke Matsuzaka looks to be a real solid pitcher. His Japanese stats show a guy who has actually accepted contact as he got older, which I think is a major boon. His K rate was still high, his walk totals were low and he is rather durable. So long as he stays durable, he will be nice in the sox rotation, but as far as predicting, dont bother yet.

 

5. Tim Wakefield was injured last season in a freak injury. Barring injury, pencil him down for 200 innings, a 4.5 era and his team will win half of the games he starts. SOLID #5.

 

The pen is still filled with huge piles of dogshit, so they need to lessen the amount of dogshit their team will step in. Their rotation, listed and predicted ad nauseum as a major strength of this team will be required to be just that. Not just durable, but effective. Lacking a closer, this rotation better have guts, cause the pen will be blowing some wins for them. Schilling is a must at 200 innings. Beckett needs to find his effectiveness, so his durability vs effectiveness ratio goes out the window. Obviously, if he logged 200 innings of 4ERA ball, the sox would be very happy. Matsuzaka needs to give innings and not fall victim to the lofty expectations. Papelbon needs to give innings but walk the line of being very cautious with that arm. Wake if healthy will be wake, so no issues there. This rotation has the potential to be stellar or the potential to completely f*** this team. The O isnt what it used to be even with Nancy and the wife beater. So the staff will have to step up.

[Cocos Disciples]

Dude the offseason isn't over we're gonna get a closer...the bullpen won't be like this.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dude the offseason isn't over we're gonna get a closer...the bullpen won't be like this.

 

who will it be then. Looks like the yankees are about to get Gonzalez from PIT for Melky (Gonzo is a big risk but should have a big payoff, btw, hate giving up Melky in this). Cordero is off the shelf. Turnbow? Lidge? Those guys dont really instill any amount of fear.

[Cocos Disciples]

Umm...Otsuka? I don't know who the closer is, but it isn't going to be anyone on the current team.

[seabeachfred]

Coco, our friend Jackson gave a pretty good scouting report on our starting rotation, but I think he was a wee bit on the underestimating side. I think we will have four really solid starters in Schill, Paps, Beck and Dice K. Wakefield ought to snap back and be better than last year, but all this is on paper. They have to do on the field. In the bullpen we are not full of dogshits as Jack said, but we do have some areas of manure in it and we must clean out the barn and make sure those types aren't going to be in there when the chips are down. There are numerous places we can go for a closer----Washington, Oakland, Pittsburgh to name three. If the Yankees are going to give Cabrera for get Gonzales, and not a sure thing as of yet, they will be depleting their depth in the outfield and with Damon and Matsui out there it isn't exactly a haven for solid defense. Take that and the error prone A-Rod, and the sloppy Cano at second and the terrible Giambroids at first and you have the making of the type of colander I can use to drain the spaghetti I like to cook three times a week. Take it from me, my pal Jackson has a lot to worry about on his end.

[jacksonianmarch]

Otsuka was 1/3 in save opps vs the yankees and allowed 4 runs in 5.2IP in 5 appearances.

[Cocos Disciples]

In that case he's terrible and we shouldn't consider him for the job...

 

Small sample size maybe?

[jacksonianmarch]

Coco' date=' our friend Jackson gave a pretty good scouting report on our starting rotation, but I think he was a wee bit on the underestimating side. I think we will have four really solid starters in Schill, Paps, Beck and Dice K. Wakefield ought to snap back and be better than last year, but all this is on paper. They have to do on the field. In the bullpen we are not full of dogshits as Jack said, but we do have some areas of manure in it and we must clean out the barn and make sure those types aren't going to be in there when the chips are down. There are numerous places we can go for a closer----Washington, Oakland, Pittsburgh to name three. If the Yankees are going to give Cabrera for get Gonzales, and not a sure thing as of yet, they will be depleting their depth in the outfield and with Damon and Matsui out there it isn't exactly a haven for solid defense. Take that and the error prone A-Rod, and the sloppy Cano at second and the terrible Giambroids at first and you have the making of the type of colander I can use to drain the spaghetti I like to cook three times a week. Take it from me, my pal Jackson has a lot to worry about on his end.[/quote']

 

SBF, ARod is a choke artist puke beeeyatch. That aside, he is typically a stellar defender. He was AWFUl early in the season, but returned to being a solid fielder. Giambroids will be a full time DH with Mink potentially being the 1b. The IF defense should be good. Posada was nothing short of amazing on the defensive side last yr, which stunned every yankee fan from here to kalamazoo. The OF defense is an issue. Damon is one of the best ball trackers in the game, but he throws like a girl. Matsui is a poor OFer. Abreu is a good OFer. If Melky is dealt, expect Kevin Thompson to be the main defensive replacement with Bernie being the 5/backup DH. The defense wont be great. It may not even be good, but it is far from what you depict it as.

[jacksonianmarch]

In that case he's terrible and we shouldn't consider him for the job...

 

Small sample size maybe?

 

potentially, but we are talking about a closer, all of their sample sizes will be small. The 5 appearances is enough to at least make me wonder.

[seabeachfred]

Otsuka was 1/3 in save opps vs the yankees and allowed 4 runs in 5.2IP in 5 appearances.

 

Jackson, that's a helluva stat to know. For me I judge a pitcher as to how he does against the Yankees. That is one reason I was never a Arroyo fan; that guy used to get eaten alive by your team. Otsuka is that bad against your boys, then, in my opinion we have to shitcan any idea of getting this guy. Now try telling Theo that; he has a hell of a lot more influence over who we get than I do.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still remember the wild game against the rangers last yr when the yankees were down 9-2, then took a 10-9 lead. Then Proctor gave up a 2 run bomb. Goes to top 9, yanks down 1, 2 outs, runner on 1st, Posada walkoff against Otsuka.

[seabeachfred]

SBF' date=' ARod is a choke artist puke beeeyatch. That aside, he is typically a stellar defender. He was AWFUl early in the season, but returned to being a solid fielder. Giambroids will be a full time DH with Mink potentially being the 1b. The IF defense should be good. Posada was nothing short of amazing on the defensive side last yr, which stunned every yankee fan from here to kalamazoo. The OF defense is an issue. Damon is one of the best ball trackers in the game, but he throws like a girl. Matsui is a poor OFer. Abreu is a good OFer. If Melky is dealt, expect Kevin Thompson to be the main defensive replacement with Bernie being the 5/backup DH. The defense wont be great. It may not even be good, but it is far from what you depict it as.[/quote']

 

Just giving you a little of it back my friend. You are right; the Yankee defense is not as crappy as I laid out, but, then again, our pitching is better than you surmised. The point is, both our teams have their work cut out for them, both have worries, and both have to make their strengths an overmatch for their weaknesses. I think the Red Sox had more work to do this winter and we got it done and can now challenge the Yankees again for the AL East where before that work was done only a fan completely devoid of reality would have made such a claim.

[seabeachfred]

I still remember the wild game against the rangers last yr when the yankees were down 9-2' date=' then took a 10-9 lead. Then Proctor gave up a 2 run bomb. Goes to top 9, yanks down 1, 2 outs, runner on 1st, Posada walkoff against Otsuka.[/quote']

 

Jack, I was at Angels Stadium with my wife that evening and couldn't believe the "fu#$in' Rangers blowing that game. When we downloaded Linda's phone to get the lowdown there was that puke Otsuka's name. I have always had a simple philosophy to judge pitchers and, believe it or not, it usually works. It goes like this: If a pitcher has a lot of trouble with Yankees time and time again, shitcan that guy and make certain he gets nowhere near that Red Sox clubhouse.

[riverside sluggers]

Dude the offseason isn't over we're gonna get a closer...the bullpen won't be like this.

 

Nothing changes, remember last year when posters like The Rivernator were insisting our shortstop would be Alex Cora and our center fielder would be Adam Stern? Yes I whole-heartedly agree that someone not on this current team will be our closer, its all a matter of when will that be before opening day in KC. Also remember that these are the same posters who were telling us to return our D-Mat jerseys because he wasnt coming to Boston

[Cocos Disciples]

Hah...forgot about Riv.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just giving you a little of it back my friend. You are right; the Yankee defense is not as crappy as I laid out' date=' but, then again, our pitching is better than you surmised. The point is, both our teams have their work cut out for them, both have worries, and both have to make their strengths an overmatch for their weaknesses. I think the Red Sox had more work to do this winter and we got it done and can now challenge the Yankees again for the AL East where before that work was done only a fan completely devoid of reality would have made such a claim.[/quote']

 

I still feel that without a solid bullpen and with some question still rolling out of the lineup that this team screams wild card. Granted, this is precisely the team that nobody will want to face in the postseason. The top 4 is solid, and has a lot of potential. But without the pen and with an offense that will be great, but not at previous unbelievable levels, I think the sox will have some trouble closing out the games against the dregs of the league. How the yankees and sox matchup together means nothing in the regular season. What is more important most of the time is who can beat the piss out of the devil rays more times.

[Cityofchampions33]

Donnelly, Timlin, Okajima, Delcarmen should be a really solid core of middle relivers for us this season (banking on if Okajima and DC have good seasons, and of course health) and depending on who our closer is we have a nice deep bullpen as of now. If we get Cordero, this is a VERY solid ballclub on paper and "screams" 1st place AL East.

[jacksonianmarch]

deep bullpen? What are you talking about? Timlin exploded last yr. Donnelly is a solid MR guy, but not a setup guy. Okajima is a ??. Romero was flat out AWFUL last yr. The kids were terrible too. The bullpen has nobody who you can point to and say reliably that they will have a solid season.

[Cityofchampions33]

I'm seriously not being biased when i consider Timlin a solid MR guy. He should hold down inning 6-7, and Okajima should devlop nicely with his hammer of a curve, though I don't expect him to be the next Sasaki, and MDC had some bright spots last year, and then I think got worse as the workload got on. However, after experiencing an MLB season, i think he can boucne back with a low-high 4 ERA. How isn't Donnelly a set-up guy? He's been one for msot of his career, yes his stats are risin a bit but he's not "exploding" like Timlin.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm seriously not being biased when i consider Timlin a solid MR guy. He should hold down inning 6-7' date=' and Okajima should devlop nicely with his hammer of a curve, though I don't expect him to be the next Sasaki, and MDC had some bright spots last year, and then I think got worse as the workload got on. However, after experiencing an MLB season, i think he can boucne back with a low-high 4 ERA. How isn't Donnelly a set-up guy? He's been one for msot of his career, yes his stats are risin a bit but he's not "exploding" like Timlin.[/quote']

 

He actually has not been a setup man for most of his career. He has been a middle reliever, but not your prototypical setup man. Shields is the SU man in LAA. Donnelly is a guy who could get the ball int he 7th here and there, but he is not a guy you reliably hand the ball in the 8th on a daily basis.

[Cityofchampions33]

Of course he totally didn't win 2003 SET-UP MAN OF THE YEAR AWARD. And wasn't used as the "primary" set-up man for K-Rod.