Red Sox Ink Arroyo to 3 year 12 millon dollar deal

[a700hitter]

Pedro is not the pedro from 1998-2000. he is a different pedro. he is not the dominant pedro of old and now has a history of injury problems. the red sox were not ever going to take a chance and to 4 years with him no matter how good of a pitcher he is because was not the same pitcher he was before 2001. the mets were the only team willing to go 4 years with pedro and they foolishly did.

He may not be the old Pedro, but you are likely to never see that kind of pitcher (i.e., '98-'00 version) in a Sox uniform in your lifetime. I am 47 years old, and I have never seen anything like that. He may not be that guy, but he is still an All-Star. With all these great arms that we have on the farm, it will be several years before any one of them becomes an All-Star. I have to disagree with you again. You take the risk on Pedro, because if he stays healthy, he is something special, even if he can't bring the '97 mph heat. He had a good year in '05. If he has a good year in '06, I have to ask you at what point is it a good acquisition for the Mets? If he is #1 ace and an All-Star for 3 years, but only wins 11 or 12 games in year 4, were the Mets stupid? My opinion would be that the Sox blew it.

[jsinger121]

the sox didn't blow it. just because they didn't give the guy 4 years doesn't mean they didn't blow it. any team in baseball would have been crazy to give pedro 4 years. there was one team that was a sucker and that team was the mets. i didn't see teams banging down pedro's door to give him 4 years. the red sox offer was a very fair offer. he just went for the bigger dollar. the red sox were very wary of his shoulder and had the right not to give him a 4 year contract. the mets overpaid for him because they needed to in order to sign him to have credibility for their fans.

[riverside sluggers]

It does speak volumnes that the Yankees werent that much vocal into the bidding war for Pedro

[jsinger121]

i think all pedro did was have a meeting with them in tampa but that was it. they rarely showed any interest after that as they were more focused on carl pavano than pedro. but it does speak volumes that their really only 2 teams after pedro. it shows the concerns that those other teams had in pedro's arm.

[a700hitter]

i think all pedro did was have a meeting with them in tampa but that was it. they rarely showed any interest after that as they were more focused on carl pavano than pedro. but it does speak volumes that their really only 2 teams after pedro. it shows the concerns that those other teams had in pedro's arm.

The Yankees went in a direction of youth-- Pavano who had one good year under his belt and they turned away from a proven star , Pedro. That has worked out well for them so far. Again, I'll ask the question if Pedro is an All-Star for 3 years and wins 10-12 games with a 4+ ERA in the 4th year, have the Mets made a good acquisition?

[jsinger121]

if he does ya he will be a good pickup but i don't think he will be a star pitcher. the red sox got him for the best years of his career. he will never come close to topping his red sox years with the mets. the red sox gave him a fair 3 yr contract offer and he didn't accept it. he went for the bigger money anmd the longer contract. no team other than the mets was willing to go 4 years with pedro. the mets were the only fools who were willing to do that.

[ORS]

The Yankees went in a direction of youth-- Pavano who had one good year under his belt and they turned away from a proven star , Pedro. That has worked out well for them so far. Again, I'll ask the question if Pedro is an All-Star for 3 years and wins 10-12 games with a 4+ ERA in the 4th year, have the Mets made a good acquisition?

Yes, youth indeed, which is why they picked up Randy Johnson and Tony Womack too. That youth movement was impressive. If the Sox win and Pedro hits the market one year earlier, then he would have been pitching in Fenway last year and for the next two. Only one team offered 4 years, and that was a team that recently launched a new cable network, which drastically increased their revenue base, and they wanted to make a splash in the market with these new funds to attract viewers. Plain and simple.

[a700hitter]

Yes, youth indeed, which is why they picked up Randy Johnson and Tony Womack too. That youth movement was impressive. If the Sox win and Pedro hits the market one year earlier, then he would have been pitching in Fenway last year and for the next two. Only one team offered 4 years, and that was a team that recently launched a new cable network, which drastically increased their revenue base, and they wanted to make a splash in the market with these new funds to attract viewers. Plain and simple.

So, it had nothing to do with Pedro being really good?

[a700hitter]

if he does ya he will be a good pickup but i don't think he will be a star pitcher. the red sox got him for the best years of his career. he will never come close to topping his red sox years with the mets. the red sox gave him a fair 3 yr contract offer and he didn't accept it. he went for the bigger money anmd the longer contract. no team other than the mets was willing to go 4 years with pedro. the mets were the only fools who were willing to do that.

He was an All-Star in his first year. If he is an All-Star in '06 would that be enough to make it a good acquisition?

[jsinger121]

pedro was worth only a 3 year deal to the red sox. why can't you understand that no matter how good of a pitcher he was he was not worth a 4 year deal to boston. the red sox were not moving off a 3 year deal and nor should they have.

[ORS]

So, it had nothing to do with Pedro being really good?

Where did I say that? Why must you argue semantical little points by reading between the lines? Of course signing Pedro had something to do with his talent. He didn't become a big-name pitcher because he has a good publicist. But the inclusion of the 4th year pretty much guaranteed that he'd go there since nobody else was offering it, and that means they stretched the market in order to make the splash they wanted to.

[a700hitter]

Where did I say that? Why must you argue semantical little points by reading between the lines? Of course signing Pedro had something to do with his talent. He didn't become a big-name pitcher because he has a good publicist. But the inclusion of the 4th year pretty much guaranteed that he'd go there since nobody else was offering it, and that means they stretched the market in order to make the splash they wanted to.

Here's what you said:

Only one team offered 4 years, and that was a team that recently launched a new cable network, which drastically increased their revenue base, and they wanted to make a splash in the market with these new funds to attract viewers. Plain and simple.

There is nothing in there about him being good. If we can agree that he is good, what does all the other stuff in your post mean. His FMV is higher for the Mets? Players usually go to the highest bidder. That's how FMV is established. The Sox didn't want to pay the price to keep a great pitcher who would go back to the NL and have an All-Star year.

[ORS]

Here's what you said:

There is nothing in there about him being good. If we can agree that he is good, what does all the other stuff in your post mean. His FMV is higher for the Mets? Players usually go to the highest bidder. That's how FMV is established. The Sox didn't want to pay the price to keep a great pitcher who would go back to the NL and have an All-Star year.

I figured if a player was offered $13.5M per season (whether it be for 3 or 4 years), it was safe to assume he's talented, call me crazy. Both teams figured his FMV to be $13.5M per, what they didn't agree on what his durability, hence the extra year from the Mets.

[a700hitter]

I figured if a player was offered $13.5M per season (whether it be for 3 or 4 years), it was safe to assume he's talented, call me crazy. Both teams figured his FMV to be $13.5M per, what they didn't agree on what his durability, hence the extra year from the Mets.

OK, so we can agree that the entire basis for the 3 vs. 4 years was a bet on durability. I am asking, how many good years does he have to have for the Mets bet to payoff?

[ORS]

OK, so we can agree that the entire basis for the 3 vs. 4 years was a bet on durability. I am asking, how many good years does he have to have for the Mets bet to payoff?

At $13.5M per? I would say he better be pretty good for the duration. If he gives three years like he gave this year, then a declining 4th would be acceptable. I think this year may have been a little flukish though. His K/9 dropped despite moving the NL, and his BABIP was .249, well below his career average of .277. BABIP is a fickle beast, so it's unlikely to stay that low, meaning his ERA will come up, and his W/L record will suffer. Time will tell.

[a700hitter]

At $13.5M per? I would say he better be pretty good for the duration. If he gives three years like he gave this year, then a declining 4th would be acceptable. I think this year may have been a little flukish though. His K/9 dropped despite moving the NL, and his BABIP was .249, well below his career average of .277. BABIP is a fickle beast, so it's unlikely to stay that low, meaning his ERA will come up, and his W/L record will suffer. Time will tell.

IMO he's such a smart pitcher that he will be successful as he loses velocity. All he has to do is stay healthy, and he will be the Mets #1. I think they made a good bet. If he was just a pure thrower, I would have backed off beleiving that he would not be effective as his velocity dropped. Pedro in the NL can pitch at 85mph and have a low 3 ERA and 7K per 9 inning ratio. I think the only way it will be bad for the Mets will be if his arm blows out in the first 3 years. I don't think that will happen, because Pedro has a whole bunch of doctors monitoring him and he is very aware of he is very highly attuned to the signals he gets from his arm. I think he makes it through the 4 years. I think he will average at least 15 wins over the 4 years. His k's/9 will drop and his Whip will go up, but on big occassions he will still be able to resemble the Pedro of old. If I am right about this, the Mets did the right thing and the Sox blew it even if he is not the Pedro from 98-2000. As for value, look at what Millwood is getting. That's all you need to know to realize that a healthy Pedro will be worth the $.

[ORS]

Good points. Pedro is, and always has been, more than a pure thrower, and his contract is more reasonable when compared to Millwood. I do think he'll be able to put up a mid-3 ERA for the duration, even if he's only hitting low-90s on the gun occassionally, in the NL. But, I wonder how that stuff would hold up in the AL East? Paul Byrd handled the Yankee lineup this postseason, but I doubt his effectiveness would last if he were in the league and had to face them more regularly. I think similar performances can be had at about $4-5M less per year. I know, it's not my money, but that does free up resources for other areas, like the ability to take on Lowell in order to get Beckett.

[guapo34]

No one was a bigger pedro fan than me, but i really think by the end of that contract hes not going to be anything special. At times last year his fastball topped out at 89. His change up which has been so deadly through the years just isn't as hard to hit when its only 4-7 mph slower than his fastball. It didn't catch up with him last year, but he was hitters with little to no experience against him.

[a700hitter]

Good points. Pedro is, and always has been, more than a pure thrower, and his contract is more reasonable when compared to Millwood. I do think he'll be able to put up a mid-3 ERA for the duration, even if he's only hitting low-90s on the gun occassionally, in the NL. But, I wonder how that stuff would hold up in the AL East? Paul Byrd handled the Yankee lineup this postseason, but I doubt his effectiveness would last if he were in the league and had to face them more regularly. I think similar performances can be had at about $4-5M less per year. I know, it's not my money, but that does free up resources for other areas, like the ability to take on Lowell in order to get Beckett.

I miss watching that little guy every 5th day. He really spoiled us. If he gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, everyone on the message boards was discussing what was wrong with him. Now, we are happy to have one of our pitchers have an outing like that.

[ORS]

Yeah, Pedro cicra 1998-2000 was something very special. Perhaps it spoiled us a bit.

[guapo34]

I miss watching that little guy every 5th day. He really spoiled us. If he gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, everyone on the message boards was discussing what was wrong with him. Now, we are happy to have one of our pitchers have an outing like that.

 

Heck i think he could give up 2 runs in 7 innings and reporters would ask him after the game, "what went wrong out there pedro?"

[a700hitter]

Heck i think he could give up 2 runs in 7 innings and reporters would ask him after the game, "what went wrong out there pedro?"

You bet. They sure did. Is it any wonder why he hated the press and frequently spoke about their negativity. The expectations of him were unfairly high. Last off-season, I was not happy with the articles about how Pedro had outlived his welcome in Boston. I don't think any fans were happy to see him go. The only group that was fed up with Pedro was the print press.

[schillingouttheks]

No one was a bigger pedro fan than me, but i really think by the end of that contract hes not going to be anything special. At times last year his fastball topped out at 89. His change up which has been so deadly through the years just isn't as hard to hit when its only 4-7 mph slower than his fastball. It didn't catch up with him last year, but he was hitters with little to no experience against him.

[offtopic] ahhchon would fight to the death with you about being the biggest Pedro fan. [/offtopic]

 

Continue.

[elsrbueno]

You bet. They sure did. Is it any wonder why he hated the press and frequently spoke about their negativity. The expectations of him were unfairly high. Last off-season, I was not happy with the articles about how Pedro had outlived his welcome in Boston. I don't think any fans were happy to see him go. The only group that was fed up with Pedro was the print press.

 

I think we all loved Pedro Martinez. There was something about Pedro taking the mound that made us all confident that we'd win that day. Just having him out there on the mound was an amazing feeling.

 

That having been said, and something that ORS has said repetedly that I don't think you're seeing a700hitter, is that the Red Sox have pledged to maintain two things that the two teams fron New York haven't: Physcal sanity and a modest budget. I understand that as a fan it's hard to swallow, especially because ticket prices continue to rise, but this is something that comes into play with all of the players you've argued for keeping the past couple years.

 

The Red Sox have maintained (and I completely agree, as I think ORS will too) that to maintain a reasonable budget AND stay competitive, you very simply can't dump large portions of money on any one player, EVEN IF THAT PLAYER IS PRODUCTIVE. This is an extreme case, but look at A-Rod in Texas. His contract sold tickets, but it crippled their finances and they weren't able to bring in enough supporting players to win. He left, and they instantly came back to respectability. Pedro Martinez was in Boston for years and when did he finally help us win the ultimate prize? When he had a tremendous supporting cast. Schilling, Lowe, Foulke, Timlin, even Embree contributed largely to not only the regular season success, but also in the playoffs too.

 

3 years of Pedro's 2005 season would be nice, but think of how the 4th year would impact the team if he wasn't effective, which the Red Sox obviously thought there was a good chance of that happening. They'd be handcuffed by his $13 million dollars and wouldn't be able to add talent to support him.

 

I believe it's a major reason why Damon's not here as well. The Red Sox didn't want to put THAT much money into ONE PLAYER.

 

It's another reason why they've tried so hard to move Manny Ramirez.