Red Sox Sign Julian Tavarez

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

He sucks in CF. His lack of errors are mainly due to the fact that he can't get to most balls. Here are his career stats in the traditonal categories, .982 F%, 2.42 Range Factor, .866 Zone Rating. Compare that to Damon's career numbers, .991 F%, 2.66 RF, .903 ZR. By Rate, a runs-based sabermetric stat, he allows 12 more runs per 100 games than Damon does.

 

EDIT: This is the first time I've looked at his career CF fielding stats. Needless to say, this puts me firmly in the Jeremy Reed camp.

 

Chances would be if Coco Crisp came to Boston and played CF he would be a temporary solution for CF. My guess would be in a year or two either Manny or Nixon would be gone allowing Crisp to move over and bring in Ellsbury by that point to take over CF.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

How many more years until Ellsbury is ready do you guys think?

[ORS]

Conservative estimate - at least 2 more

Optimistic estimate - midseason of 2007

 

It all depends on how he handles each level. He'll likely start of in advanced A ball this year. If he's in AA by June or so, then he could get a AAA peek at the end of the year. If he struggles at any step along the way, then he's going to need time to work it out. Personally, I think he'll get a September call up in 2007. He torched college ball and the New/Penn League, but this spring will be his first challenge against some pitchers with a little polish.

[guapo34]

He sucks in CF. His lack of errors are mainly due to the fact that he can't get to most balls. Here are his career stats in the traditonal categories, .982 F%, 2.42 Range Factor, .866 Zone Rating. Compare that to Damon's career numbers, .991 F%, 2.66 RF, .903 ZR. By Rate, a runs-based sabermetric stat, he allows 12 more runs per 100 games than Damon does.

 

EDIT: This is the first time I've looked at his career CF fielding stats. Needless to say, this puts me firmly in the Jeremy Reed camp.

 

But Damons Career numbers aren't whats expected going forward from him. fwiw, baseball prospectus rates Crisp as dead average defensively in center field. Although he hasn't spent that many games out there to make a definitive judgement I'd aruge. Jeremy Reed is very good defensively, but his offensive numbers aren't nearly as good.

[schillingouttheks]

Anyways, back to Julian Tavarez...

 

Is this guy really that good? I clearly remember him giving up that Game 1 HR to Blowhorn to give us the lead. Not to mention his attitude resembles that of Kevin Brown's.

[ORS]

But Damons Career numbers aren't whats expected going forward from him. fwiw, baseball prospectus rates Crisp as dead average defensively in center field. Although he hasn't spent that many games out there to make a definitive judgement I'd aruge. Jeremy Reed is very good defensively, but his offensive numbers aren't nearly as good.

Rate is a BP stat, so I don't see how they'd rate him average. His career Rate is 89 whereas average is 100. That means he's 11 runs per 100 games below average. To put that in perspective, Renteria's Rate from last year, his worst ever, was 86. Whoever wrote that article clearly used another metric like UZR or something.

[YanksHater213]

Tavarez is a more than solid addition to this team. It looks like bullpen depth will be a pretty decent strength of our team next season.

[schillingouttheks]

I remember seeing something wrong with his hand or whatever. It looked like disproportionately big. Am I just seeing things or did he do something to himself?

[guapo34]

Rate is a BP stat, so I don't see how they'd rate him average. His career Rate is 89 whereas average is 100. That means he's 11 runs per 100 games below average. To put that in perspective, Renteria's Rate from last year, his worst ever, was 86. Whoever wrote that article clearly used another metric like UZR or something.

 

Sorry to keep straying off topic but my comment on him being average was a rating on 10 games played in center last year. Obviously thats not very significant. Looking at his overall stats, he was pretty bad in 2004 in center, ranking 8 runs below average in 94 games. He's played exactly 94 games other than 2004 and comes in at 5 runs below average. I still don't see Jeremy Reeds defense making enough of a difference to justify the drop in offense.

 

I don't subscribe to BP but when I look for defensive stats i usually go to their player cards and look at the RAA category.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/crispco01.shtml

[guapo34]

I remember seeing something wrong with his hand or whatever. It looked like disproportionately big. Am I just seeing things or did he do something to himself?

 

Right before playing the Red Sox in the world series he broke it by punching something in the dugout. It swelled up and looked awful. It wasn't permanent though.

[ORS]

Sorry to keep straying off topic but my comment on him being average was a rating on 10 games played in center last year. Obviously thats not very significant. Looking at his overall stats, he was pretty bad in 2004 in center, ranking 8 runs below average in 94 games. He's played exactly 94 games other than 2004 and comes in at 5 runs below average. I still don't see Jeremy Reeds defense making enough of a difference to justify the drop in offense.

 

I don't subscribe to BP but when I look for defensive stats i usually go to their player cards and look at the RAA category.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/crispco01.shtml

Rate is just RAA per 100 games. It's right there in the player's DT card. I don't subscribe either, but I'm thinking about it this year.

[schillingouttheks]

Right before playing the Red Sox in the world series he broke it by punching something in the dugout. It swelled up and looked awful. It wasn't permanent though.

Hahahah, I knew I connected his attitude with Kevin Brown for a reason.

[YanksHater213]

I did too.

[ksushi]

Yeah, and I'm going to re-disagree with all three of you because his bat cannot make up for defense given that we already have adequate offense and might find ourselves hurting for defense. Forget the traditional notion that defense comes second and that hitting is the true gauge of a players value, in this case, its the opposite. Errors are an overrated stat, they are judge by someone up in a booth and depending on who is in that booth, one day a bad play might be an error, the next its a base hit. Not to mention like ORS said you need to get to a ball in order for the scorer to officially call it an error. So just because one guy has been determined by the press to be our top priority doesn't mean its actually the best option. All things considered, Coco Crisp is not worth what it would take to get him assuming Marte would be the price tag. Forget it.

 

Hitting is not going to be the key to the east. So what if Coco is average defensivley, you go with the guy who plays better defense (reed) and who might not hit as well. But considering he was suffering from a wrist injury and is 1 year removed from being in BBA top ten of their top 100 prospects, I would say he is the better go.

[guapo34]

Yeah, and I'm going to re-disagree with all three of you because his bat cannot make up for defense given that we already have adequate offense and might find ourselves hurting for defense. Forget the traditional notion that defense comes second and that hitting is the true gauge of a players value, in this case, its the opposite. Errors are an overrated stat, they are judge by someone up in a booth and depending on who is in that booth, one day a bad play might be an error, the next its a base hit. Not to mention like ORS said you need to get to a ball in order for the scorer to officially call it an error. So just because one guy has been determined by the press to be our top priority doesn't mean its actually the best option. All things considered, Coco Crisp is not worth what it would take to get him assuming Marte would be the price tag. Forget it.

 

Hitting is not going to be the key to the east. So what if Coco is average defensivley, you go with the guy who plays better defense (reed) and who might not hit as well. But considering he was suffering from a wrist injury and is 1 year removed from being in BBA top ten of their top 100 prospects, I would say he is the better go.

 

A few points. I'm pretty sure tradition notions are that pitching and defense wins, contrary to what you argue. You also argue that defense is the true gauge of a players value. This is completely close minded. Obviously its both. Defense is not going to be what wins the east, offense isn't, pitching isn't, its gonna be the team that puts the combination of the three together the best, and I really hate when people argue that one doesn't matter, or is less significant, no matter which one it is.

 

No one said errors are a good judge of defensive ability, so I'm not sure why you felt the need to argue they aren't. Thats obviously true.

 

The press determined Coco Crisp is our top priority based on information from the front office. The fact that both Gammons and Edes have reported it makes it more likely. Sure its possible its not true, but given the reporters I'd say chances are they are right.

 

Also, I haven't seen anyone on this message board say we should give up marte for Crisp. I will say I would be happy if we get him for Mota and someone else, like arroyo/clement/Wells, or a 3 way where one of those guys goes somewhere else. The reports are that the Mariners are asking for Lester or Pappelbon in a trade for Reed. Judging by your stance on prospects I doubt you want to give up one of them, even though you say Reed is your top choice because Crisp would cost Marte.

[redsoxrules]

i dont know why everybody is excited to get tavarez , im not , the guy had one good year 2004 thats it. Last year he wasent that great ,in just 65 innings pitched he allowed 19 walks 8 hit batter and 68 hits , thats way to many runners and in his career opponents batting average is 354! with a WHIP of 1.47. Really nice eh?

[Cityofchampions33]

i dont know why everybody is excited to get tavarez , im not , the guy had one good year 2004 thats it. Last year he wasent that great ,in just 65 innings pitched he allowed 19 walks 8 hit batter and 68 hits , thats way to many runners and in his career opponents batting average is 354! with a WHIP of 1.47. Really nice eh?

 

Idk what your talking about, his last three seasons as a reliever he's had -4.00 ERAs, his WHIP was 1.325 which isn't 1.47 and is just above Mike Timlin. Also his wlalks aren't outrageous either, which is 1 more than Rivera's 18. Only concern with him to me is his personality which shouldn't be that much of an issue.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

i dont know why everybody is excited to get tavarez , im not , the guy had one good year 2004 thats it. Last year he wasent that great ,in just 65 innings pitched he allowed 19 walks 8 hit batter and 68 hits , thats way to many runners and in his career opponents batting average is 354! with a WHIP of 1.47. Really nice eh?

 

Wow. Career BAA of .354!?!? Where did you get that?? It's actually .281. Next time you're going to burn someone, at least get his stats right.

[redsoxrules]

Idk what your talking about, his last three seasons as a reliever he's had -4.00 ERAs, his WHIP was 1.325 which isn't 1.47 and is just above Mike Timlin. Also his wlalks aren't outrageous either, which is 1 more than Rivera's 18. Only concern with him to me is his personality which shouldn't be that much of an issue.

 

if you look at his CAREER stats his whip is 1.47 and opponents batting ave 354 and plus an ERA of 4.33 , and if you average his last 3 season of corse his gonna have decent stas cause he had ONE good year thats

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Idk what your talking about, his last three seasons as a reliever he's had -4.00 ERAs, his WHIP was 1.325 which isn't 1.47 and is just above Mike Timlin. Also his wlalks aren't outrageous either, which is 1 more than Rivera's 18. Only concern with him to me is his personality which shouldn't be that much of an issue.[/quote

 

if you look at his CAREER stats his whip is 1.47 and opponents batting ave 354 and plus an ERA of 4.33 , and if you average his last 3 season of corse his gonna have decent stas cause he had ONE good year thats

 

 

Where the hell are you getting this .354 BAA?!?!?!!?

[Cityofchampions33]

Are you the only one who doesn't know he was a starter for most of his career? I'm talking about his career WHIP as a RELIEVER.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5103/career;_ylt=AgjmPeKbyrY8O.mB68OAKpSFCLcF

 

 

Also, his ERA is greatly inflated because in 1994 he pitched one game and ended with an ERA of 21.60

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Why would you try to figure that out yourself?? His career BAA is .281. Okay? I have to go now.

[riverside sluggers]

if you look at his CAREER stats his whip is 1.47 and opponents batting ave 354 and plus an ERA of 4.33 , and if you average his last 3 season of corse his gonna have decent stas cause he had ONE good year thats

 

sorry im gonna have to agree with the others, the career opponents batting avg is .281 not .354

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5103/career;_ylt=Ag4w0yMa01a2z3th3KKuqBKFCLcF

 

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=stl&playerID=123118&section1=1&statSet1=1&section2=1&section3=1&statSet3=1&statSet2=3

 

"next stats" link and it goes to another set of stats that shows the BAA

[redsoxrules]

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=stl&playerID=123118&section1=1&statSet1=1&section2=1&section3=1&statSet3=1&statSet2=2

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Dude, there's definitely something wrong with those stats. This is you.

 

 

 

[ATTACH]325[/ATTACH]

[ORS]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5103/career;_ylt=AgjmPeKbyrY8O.mB68OAKpSFCLcF

 

 

Also, his ERA is greatly inflated because in 1994 he pitched one game and ended with an ERA of 21.60

How does this inflate his career ERA? The ER goes into the career ER total, the IP goes into the career IP total, and the career ERA is determined from these numbers. Did you think it was an average of each years ERA? If so, that is wrong, because each years ERA needs to be weighted by the innings pitched. Since he pitched so few innings that year, the high ERA would carry little weight toward the total.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

How does this inflate his career ERA? The ER goes into the career ER total, the IP goes into the career IP total, and the career ERA is determined from these numbers. Did you think it was an average of each years ERA? If so, that is wrong, because each years ERA needs to be weighted by the innings pitched. Since he pitched so few innings that year, the high ERA would carry little weight toward the total.

 

 

My bad. You're right.

[example1]

i dont know why everybody is excited to get tavarez , im not , the guy had one good year 2004 thats it. Last year he wasent that great ,in just 65 innings pitched he allowed 19 walks 8 hit batter and 68 hits , thats way to many runners and in his career opponents batting average is 354! with a WHIP of 1.47. Really nice eh?

 

His career OBP against is .354, not BAA. That's .291. .354 is a little high, compared, say, to Timilin's .314 career OBP. It still doesn't seem exceptional.

 

In either case, I'm all for having added depth in the pen.

[eZ_d0eS_iT]

i wouldn't say im excited about having him, other than he throws hard, likes to pitch inside and jam up the hitter...

 

but he's more than decent, adds much needed depth, and he doesn't go to a team that can potentially hurt us in the playoffs when pitching depth is most critical.