What the Red Sox really need

[ORS]

Felix Hernandez hasn't proven himself to me yet. The guys made a few starts for a last place team and done a great job, but how many times have we seen these hotshot pitchers come in for a half a year and then fizzle out. Kazmir for the past year and a half has pitched consistantly great for the hapless D-Rays.

Have you watched Hernandez yet? I watched about four of his starts this year. He's still got some learning to do, but he's the real deal. His stuff's so good I can't even think of someone to compare him to.

[example1]

Have you watched Hernandez yet? I watched about four of his starts this year. He's still got some learning to do, but he's the real deal. His stuff's so good I can't even think of someone to compare him to.

 

Yeah, that's what I think too. The guy has unbelievable stuff.

96 mph fastball, 90 mph slider, 87 curve, EVERYTHING is down. He seems to pitch at the ankles.

 

This season:

4-4, 84 IP, 61 H, 25 ER, 23 BB, 77 K, 2.67, 1.00 WHIP.

 

His four losses:

1) 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (first pro start)

2) 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K (2-0 loss to NYY)

3) 7 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (6-3 loss to BAL) (one of two bad starts this year)

4) 3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (5-3 loss to TX) (the other bad start

 

Notable other games:

9 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K's (3-2 loss to TEX)

8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 6 K (1-0 win vs. MIN)

8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K

8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K (8-3 Win vs. MIN)

7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K (3-2 Win vs. TOR, no hitter into 7th).

 

IP per start: 5, 8, 8, 8, 7, 8, 7, 7, 3, 7.1, 9, 7.

 

The guy is 19 and is commonly seen as comparable to a young Dwight Gooden, except that Gooden was never as good. .

[riverside sluggers]

Have you watched Hernandez yet? I watched about four of his starts this year. He's still got some learning to do, but he's the real deal. His stuff's so good I can't even think of someone to compare him to.

 

I think it takes a lot for a pitcher to impress him. Afterall he has said couple times that Papelbon shouldnt be in the rotation next spring but rather the bullpen because thus far "Papelbon hasnt proven himself to me yet"

[example1]

I've said the same thing. However, I say it because I'm not sure where the sox will need him most next year, not because he hasn't proven himself. Papelbon is a tremendous pitcher and will be a great starter in the future. If the sox have lots of veteran starters next year and are not able to move them I would much rather see Papelbon in the pen than Wells.

[riverside sluggers]

If the sox have lots of veteran starters next year and are not able to move them I would much rather see Papelbon in the pen than Wells.

 

Wait, what? Of course the sox wouldnt have wells in the bullpen rather than papelbon. thats a no-brainer it would be decided between arroyo and paps. But, that aside

 

as for lots of veteran starting pitchers on the staff in 2006, Schilling is the only pitcher that is 100% assured of coming back. Wells is mulling retirement. Miller will not be resigned to the Sox. Bronson this offseason will look for a mulit-year $$$ contract extension (2006 is team option). Clement's piss poor 2nd half and torrid playoff start might have cost him the "Javier Vazquez" treatment. No doubt in mind that Papelbon will be in rotation next spring, and could very will win 15 games or more

[example1]

Wait, what? Of course the sox wouldnt have wells in the bullpen rather than papelbon. thats a no-brainer it would be decided between arroyo and paps. But, that aside

 

as for lots of veteran starting pitchers on the staff in 2006, Schilling is the only pitcher that is 100% assured of coming back. Wells is mulling retirement. Miller will not be resigned to the Sox. Bronson this offseason will look for a mulit-year $$$ contract extension (2006 is team option). Clement's piss poor 2nd half and torrid playoff start might have cost him the "Javier Vazquez" treatment. No doubt in mind that Papelbon will be in rotation next spring, and could very will win 15 games or more

 

Where did wakefield go?

 

I think Clement will be back or traded.

 

Of course Papelbon should start, but if we have Schilling, Miller, Wakefield, Wells and Clement under contract I think that Papelbon is the odd man out. I want him to be a great starter, and he will be in the future. I'm just not going to be heartbroken if the future isn't next year.

[riverside sluggers]

thats right Schilling and wakefield are both assured of coming back.

 

About Miller, he had signed a 1 seson contract with club option to return in 2006. Reports were late September that Sox are leaning toward declining the option considering Miller will have offseason surgery, delaying the time again he could come back and pitch. yes david wells is under contract for next season, but that isnt stopping him from mulling retirement.

 

There's always possibility of a 6 man staff.

[example1]

I recently read somewhere that the sox WERE thinking of taking Miller back. I think Wells is mulling a trade over retirement, as he doesn't seem done with baseball but maybe done with boston.

 

I have been interested in the prospect of a 6 man staff, but that's only logical if all of the pitchers are relatively equal, which this team seems to have. If Schilling pitches like normal or if we get Burnett then it wouldn't make a lot of sense, since we want those guys pitching as often as possible. If we stand the same chance of winning with all 6 then why not rest them for the long haul.

[Sizzlin22]

Have you watched Hernandez yet? I watched about four of his starts this year. He's still got some learning to do, but he's the real deal. His stuff's so good I can't even think of someone to compare him to.

Of course he has the stuff, but how many pitcher have we seen go in and out who had "the stuff". Do we know if his arm can take all the pitching? Do we know if he can handle the pressure of pitching in the bigs? Do we know that he can mentally adjsut to pitching in America in front of thousands of fans regularly? Do we know if he can consistantly put is arm through all those pitches in a full year and keep that same velocity and movement?

 

Kazmir has proven that he can do all these things going into his second full season in the majors and spening the time going through the minors in the Mets system. All I'm saying is Felix Hernandez can fizle out liek so many great young ptichers that we have seen.

[ORS]

This year's stats speak for themselves:

 

King Felix: 8.2 K/9, 3.35 K/BB, 1.02 WHIP, 162 ERA+

Kazmir: 8.4 K/9, 1.74 K/BB, 1.56 WHIP, 114 ERA+

[Sizzlin22]

You left out a huge stat

 

Hernandez IP- 84.1

 

Kazmir IP-186.0

 

I wonder what would happen to Felix if he had to pitch 303 more outs. All I'm saying is he's still yet to prove himself as a big league pitcher.

[ORS]

I didn't neglect that stat. All the stats I used are pitching rate stats, which use the total number of innings pitched in their calculations. I'd agree that he still had something to prove if he had only pitched 25 or so innings, as that would constitute a small sample size. But I feel 84 innings over 3 months is a large enough sample to evaluate his rate stats.

[example1]

Not to mention the ridiculous things that people are saying about him. He is completely poised, the guy owns the mound the way a great basketball player owns the court. He throws strikes, but not just strikes... we're talking low fastballs, 6 inches off the ground, 96-97 over and over and over. Very little is way out of the zone. 8th inning? 96-97.

 

I like Kazmir, I like him a lot. If the sox could get him that would be great (and stupid for Tampa). He shuts down the sox and makes them look bad. However, he also throws a considerable number of walks (100/186 IP) vs. (23BB/84 IP) for Hernandez.

 

Kazmir has great potential, Hernandez IS currently great. He's called King Felix for christsakes.

 

I think the 3.35k/BB is outstanding, as is the 8.22 K/9.

 

Equally impressive, though, is Felix's .542 OPS, which would have been tied for Clemens with the tie for the MLB lead if he had the number of innings needed. (Johan Santana: .594, Kazmir: .718) He gave up a .203 avg against, a .283 SLG (Clemens was tops in baseball at .284). He would have trailed only Santana, Pedro and Clemens in OBP at .263.

 

Or maybe his G/F ratio: 3.31. (vs. 1.05 for Kazmir) (Best in MLB was Brandon Webb, at 4.34, Hernandez would have been second, just above Jake Westbrook (3.13) and D-Lowe (2.92)

 

We're talking about a 19 year old kid putting up a 1.00 WHIP, STARTING as the ace on an MLB team. He gets groundballs like Derek Lowe, strikes out hitters like, well, Scott Kazmir, and has been compared to a starting pitcher-Mariano Rivera for his poise and calm. The guy throws like nobody I've seen in awhile (Pedro in the 90s probably).

 

This page was never supposed to be about King Felix though. Sorry everyone else!!!

[MC Hammer]

Bringing Theo back.

[ksushi]

I have felix on my fantasy keeper team. My whole league fell asleep on him.

 

 

I wonder if theo will be wrapped up by the general managers meetings that are coming up around the corner. I think he will be back, I don't think they can make this big of a mistake and let him go. None of the people in the negotiations are speaking publically about it so just about everything we've been hearing can be taken as rumor or hearsay, because to be honest, the ownership knows what they have on their hands and they aren't going to let a guy like theo slip between the cracks. I don't believe that they would just blatently low ball him like that, we aren't talking about big money here we're talking to wrap him up maybe 1.5 million a year. WHO CARES! It could be the biggest no brainer in sox history. Well thats an overstatement but still it might be. The ownership was going to expand the payroll for bullpen anyways, so whatever, money won't be the issue, King Theo shall return.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I have felix on my fantasy keeper team. My whole league fell asleep on him.

 

 

I wonder if theo will be wrapped up by the general managers meetings that are coming up around the corner. I think he will be back, I don't think they can make this big of a mistake and let him go. None of the people in the negotiations are speaking publically about it so just about everything we've been hearing can be taken as rumor or hearsay, because to be honest, the ownership knows what they have on their hands and they aren't going to let a guy like theo slip between the cracks. I don't believe that they would just blatently low ball him like that, we aren't talking about big money here we're talking to wrap him up maybe 1.5 million a year. WHO CARES! It could be the biggest no brainer in sox history. Well thats an overstatement but still it might be. The ownership was going to expand the payroll for bullpen anyways, so whatever, money won't be the issue, King Theo shall return.

 

Not only that but if they don't wrap him up the Yanks will....the Red Sox can't afford a strong figure like Theo to move to the most hated rival.

[ORS]

I'm fairly confident that they will get Theo signed; however, if they don't, it's not the end of the world. There are several competent replacements, both in-house and out, available.

 

The GM meetings start on Nov. 6, if I recall correctly, and Theo's contract is up on October 31. He has already publicly stated that he will not come in after October 31 without a contract.

[example1]

I'm fairly confident that they will get Theo signed; however, if they don't, it's not the end of the world. There are several competent replacements, both in-house and out, available.

 

The GM meetings start on Nov. 6, if I recall correctly, and Theo's contract is up on October 31. He has already publicly stated that he will not come in after October 31 without a contract.

 

Emotionally I disagree with that. Theo is like one of the players, he's one of the guys I'm proud of having on the Sox team. All of these Sox players could leave in the next 6 years. If they all left AND Theo left then I am not sure our team would contend. If they all left and Theo stayed I'm pretty certain he would have upgraded the team rather than letting it fall apart.

 

We can't keep Nomar. We can't keep Pedro. We don't have Schill, Manny wants out, Trot is getting old, Damon is probably leaving, Foulke blows, D-Lowe is gone, Mueller is probably on his way out, so is Millar. Can't Sox fans have at least ONE constant in their lives? I like Varitek but he's not enough.

 

I understand we have untouchables like papelbon, Hansen, Lester, Hanley, Pedroia, but I want some remnant of the 2004 team to be with them for a long time. Theo would be perfect, he's only going to cost a couple of million a year and he is the face of the team. I think it is imparative that we resign him, especially since he will likely go to a team that we compete with if we don't sign him.