Pythagrom Theorem

[CrespoBlows]

Pythagorean Standings: Boston Leads Yanks by 9.5 Games

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/neyer/index

 

Look at the bottom of the page for the Pythagorean standings, Boston has a 88-54 record, NY has a 79-64 record.

 

The Pythagorean formula was developed by Bill James and is based upon runs scored VS allowed. The result can show which teams are a little lucky in winning a lot of close games and which teams are unlucky.

 

Granted it is not all luck as the Yankees have Rivera in the bullppen which helps them win close games. Still there is such a major discrepancy here that one cannot help but wonder if the talent level on the two teams actually favors Boston in 2004. And that this difference might come into play in the post season, should the two teams meet.

 

The Yankees actual W-L record is 11 games better than their runs scored VS given up would indicate. This is the biggest discrepancy in the major leagues.

 

Wild huh?

[elsrbueno]

Crespo,

I think this is a good example of how statistics don't tell the whole story. The Red Sox went through a spell (May, June, and July) when they could ONLY win if they blew out their opponent. They lost the majority of their close games because the bullpen struggled, their defense was sub-par, and they couldn't steal bases, bunt, or do ANY little things.

 

As a result, these numbers are a bit skewed.

 

Granted, the Red Sox are much better at the above 4 weeknesses of late. Cabby, Mientkiewicz, and Roberts have sured up the defense, and Mendoza, Myers, have been added to help the 'pen. Also, Embree, Timlin, and Foulke have pitched better lately. Adding Williamson will only improve.

 

So overall, Crespo, I think the Yankees beat their run differential by 11 games because they simply played BETTER baseball for the majority of the season.

 

That being said...I'd love to see the Pythagorean Standings from Aug 1st to date as a comparison.

[yeszir]

It's gotten to the point not where I'm completely rejecting the moneyball theory (if you'll remember, I've always hated it), and am now starting to be very very skeptical of anything Bill James produces. Sure win shares and the like can be useful, to an extent.

 

I've never really heard of pythagorean wins, I'm assuming it has nothing to do with a triangle though.

[empirestrikesback26]

pythagorean therom, a squared plus b squared=c squared. Only thing I remember from math. Anyway, I hate the money ball ideas too. Where have the teams that follow them gotten? Nowhere.