Jon Lester

[a700hitter]

They did it to Hansen too. He started a game, he pitched in relief the next day, he threw all change ups and fastballs for awhile. They're building these kids up.

Hansen has command of his fastball, and he proved in ST that he can get out ML hitters. They are fine-tuning his slider, so he can dominate ML hitters. Lester hasn't mastered any of his pitches, and he has not yet proved that he can get out ML or AAA hitters.

 

Not everyone of these prospects will make it. Of all the arms in the organization, maybe 4 become successful major league pitchers that last a few years. You'd be lucky if two become stars. The rest are washouts or at best journeymen. The FO has to figure out which guys make it and try to trade as many of the rest to improve the team. Which 4 do you think will have major league careers, and which two become stars?

[ksushi]

Not true, the pitch they are working on, and have been with Hansen is his change. He's got a fine slider, and it really was nasty in the spring. They want him to refine his change because they believe that maybe at some point Hansen could make the jump to a starter, but right now they see him as a closer at least they do by everything I have read.

 

I think that in the past most of the Red Sox prospects have fizzled, true. This is different though. The Sox farm system was ranked 8th overall, and thats impressive. Don't doubt that most of these guys turn out to be solid major leaguers. My definition of solid might be more conservative than yours, but I definetly see most of these guys (pedroia, lester, papelbon, hansen, martinez, delcarmen, etc.) being solid major leaguers. I see most of them being good.

 

 

http://www.projo.com/pawsox/content/projo_20060411_11pawsox.d8a728c.html Not a bad article right there.

[jsinger121]

I see some of them being good as well because they have started to draft more polished college players such as pedroia, hansen, papelbon, lowrie, ellsbury, etc. Not everyone will pan out and I see someone like Delcarmen going either way as well as Big Edgar.

[a700hitter]

I see some of them being good as well because they have started to draft more polished college players such as pedroia, hansen, papelbon, lowrie, ellsbury, etc. Not everyone will pan out and I see someone like Delcarmen going either way as well as Big Edgar.

What about Bucholz and Bowden?

[jsinger121]

What about Bucholz and Bowden?

 

I like both of them alot but they are still at Low A ball. They both have very high upsides especially Bowden who has a very good curveball. Both of them could be in Wilmington to end the season but my guess is the Red Sox have Bowden in Greenville the entire year since he is still 19. But Buchholz should be pitching in Wilmington by the end of the season.

[a700hitter]

I like both of them alot but they are still at Low A ball. They both have very high upsides especially Bowden who has a very good curveball. Both of them could be in Wilmington to end the season but my guess is the Red Sox have Bowden in Greenville the entire year since he is still 19. But Buchholz should be pitching in Wilmington by the end of the season.

Do you project them as major leaguers, and if so, when?

[jsinger121]

I think both have very good chances to become major leaguers and were both part of a very good draft class by the Red Sox in 2005. Bowden has the higher ceiling of the two and I think he arrives sometime in late 2009 or early 2010.

 

Here is the scouting report on him.

Bowden has an arsenal of four MLB caliber pitches: a low-90s fastball which tops out at 95, a 12-6 hard breaking curve, a tight slider, and a plus circle changeup. Bowden is said to be a workaholic and just loves to pitch - another player who just lives and dies for baseball. Very athletic. Absolutely dominated high school competition in 2005. Delivery is not as smooth as it could be.

 

Here is a quote from Bowden on his delivery from Red Sox nation:

 

"The team sent me to ASMI (the American Sports Medicine Institute), in Alabama, which is the biomechanics lab run by Dr. Andrews. They measured my timing to make sure there's no additional stress on my arm. The results came back very well, so they don't feel I need to change anything. I do have to pay attention to my direction to home plate though, because I push off on my toes more than my whole foot. I'm facing a little toward right-handed hitters in my delivery."

 

Buchholz I could see depending on how quickly he moves through the system up by late 2008 or early 2009. He is another pitcher who throws hard. Buchholz has a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, curveball, and a circle change.

[a700hitter]

Are you a scout?

 

I like these young arms, and it was a particular treat to see them paraded one after the other at ST, but (there's always a but) I temper my enthusiasm because it is a real long shot that most of them make it. I would be very happy if Hansen becomes a star, and if three of the rest become good ML pitchers. Two years from now, a good number of the current crop will have fallen by the wayside, and we will be discussing a new crop. Papelbon is the goods. Barring injury, he'll be a pretty good ML pitcher for a while. I am reserving judgment on Lester. It is not encouraging to me that he is apparently a little messed up right now. Hopefully, something will click for the kid and everything will fall into place.

[jsinger121]

No but I follow a ton of minor league baseball, go to games, and have a source who is a scout.

 

Back to Bowden and Buchholz. Both fell in the draft to the Red Sox and we should be happy they did. For Bowden he slipped because scouts went to one of his starts in HS and he was throwing 85 MPH. The reason. The day before he was helping his father with chores around the house which hurt his velocity for that day thus his draft stock slipped. As for Buchholz he slipped to the Sox because other teams had concerns about Buchholz when he stole alot of computers. Teams didn't know if this was an isolated incident or if it were to continue but the Red Sox thought it would not continue and thus landed him.

[ksushi]

I don't see ellsbury being anything to write home about, nor bucholz. I've read a lot about the pure stuff bowden has so the jury is out there until i see something but he seems promising. Delcarmen and Big Edgar could go either way but I love Big Edgars stuff.

 

Pedroia, Hansen, Lester, and Papelbon I think are can't miss prospects.

[a700hitter]

I don't see ellsbury being anything to write home about, nor bucholz. I've read a lot about the pure stuff bowden has so the jury is out there until i see something but he seems promising. Delcarmen and Big Edgar could go either way but I love Big Edgars stuff.

 

Pedroia, Hansen, Lester, and Papelbon I think are can't miss prospects.

Now we are getting on the same page. You have four guys slotted for the majors. I agree with three: Hansen, Papelbon (who is already there) and Pedroia. I think Hansen and Papelbon can be stars. I am not ruling out Lester. I am just not sure whether Del Carmen or one of the other kids has better prospects.

[Cityofchampions33]

DC made me a bit nervous with his performance last year and this ST, but I'm sure he'll work it out. Ellsbury should do fine, but yeah he's nothing vlose to sure. However he'd be a good compliment to Coco and Wily-Mo if he does get big.

[Beckett95]

i think Ellsbury will be a good major leaguer to. His got great tools. I think he'll turn into a Damon, with a stronger arm, more speed and a little less power

[ksushi]

Delcarmen was good last year, but he needs more consistency with his curve. He has a very good high 90's fastball but its straight. If his curve is off, he has nothing to compliment that fastball and he gets racked. So, I hate to say it, but maybe he needs another pitch to go along with his curve. People say that about prospects all the time, and it usually isn't true, but I think it might work out in Delcarmens favor to have a third pitch.

[jsinger121]

Lester's done

Final line: 4 innings, 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 bb, 6 k's on 65 pitches

[Beckett95]

Lester threw pretty well tonight. Hes fastball wasnt great, only 88, but his offspeed pitches were good.

[guapo34]

Now we are getting on the same page. You have four guys slotted for the majors. I agree with three: Hansen, Papelbon (who is already there) and Pedroia. I think Hansen and Papelbon can be stars. I am not ruling out Lester. I am just not sure whether Del Carmen or one of the other kids has better prospects.

 

 

I think you have a solid group of guys in the low minors that are in the too soon to tell category. With what Bowdon and Bucholz have done in the low minors its rediculous to say they probably won't make it. Its also a little soon to say they're can't miss prospects.

 

I'd put Bucholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Emart in that category.

[CrespoBlows]

I think you have a solid group of guys in the low minors that are in the too soon to tell category. With what Bowdon and Bucholz have done in the low minors its rediculous to say they probably won't make it. Its also a little soon to say they're can't miss prospects.

 

I'd put Bucholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Emart in that category.

 

 

 

I think you need to :stop: pretending to know what you are talking about. We have a smilley for people like you :banned: :banned: :banned: :banned: :banned:

[MANNYHOF24]

Lester is 0-4 with an Era of 7.00, does anybody know whats wrong with this guy, he get shelled in spring training as well

[riverside sluggers]

Lester is 0-4 with an Era of 7.00, does anybody know whats wrong with this guy, he get shelled in spring training as well

 

the ERA is deceiving. The Sox by each start have him on a strict innings/pitch count. He's only lasting 3 or 4 innings, when they know he could go 7 or 8. No need to press the panic button

[Beckett95]

Lester is 0-4 with an Era of 7.00, does anybody know whats wrong with this guy, he get shelled in spring training as well

went to the game the other night he pitcheds, he pitched pretty well but was pretty much only throwing offspeed stuff. When he did throw a fastball, it wasnt hard, only 88-89.

[a700hitter]

I'd like to see him get on a good run soon. His lutre as a top prospect will start to get tarnished if he keeps going on this way. Get him on a little run, then the FO should talk him up big and wait for the Marlins to beg us for him as part of a package for Dontrelle Willis.

[ksushi]

Relax, they are pitch counting him and working him out in short inning stints. Don't sell out on him yet.

[MANNYHOF24]

Last summer people were saying he was throwing 93-94, it kind of scares me he is only hitting 88-89

[jsinger121]

Hes not pushing it in April. The FO is doing it smart with him to keep him on a 60 pitch limit in his starts for the time being then when the weather gets much warmer let him go on his own. No reason to trade him yet and it will cost alot more than just Lester to get Willis and I'm pretty sure the Red Sox would not sell the farm system to win it all this year. That was one of the reasons Theo left in the first place is he was looking at the long term while Larry looked at the short term.

[a700hitter]

Hes not pushing it in April. The FO is doing it smart with him to keep him on a 60 pitch limit in his starts for the time being then when the weather gets much warmer let him go on his own. No reason to trade him yet and it will cost alot more than just Lester to get Willis and I'm pretty sure the Red Sox would not sell the farm system to win it all this year. That was one of the reasons Theo left in the first place is he was looking at the long term while Larry looked at the short term.

Theo doesn't like compromising the future for expensive players who only have a couple of years left. Getting willis is for a package of prospects is not compromising the future. Willis is the future. He is a stud and he is still cheap. It would be a trade of an uncertain future for a certain future. Theo would be a fool not to make the deal. Lester is 22 and they are still teaching him fundamentals. He has a long long way to go, but Willis at 24 is already a star. There's no comparison.

[jsinger121]

I like Willis but personally I think he is quite overrated and his funky delivery scares the hell out of me because he is a potential candidate for arm problems with the way he throws. I would not part with 3-4 good prospects for him but that is just me.

[a700hitter]

I like Willis but personally I think he is quite overrated and his funky delivery scares the hell out of me because he is a potential candidate for arm problems with the way he throws. I would not part with 3-4 good prospects for him but that is just me.

It might be just you.

[jsinger121]

It might be just you.

 

I would be pretty shocked if Theo sold the farm for Willis because frankly Willis is not a better pitcher than Beckett but the Marlins are holding a high price for him which would be too steep in my opinion.

[ksushi]

Lol, its me too. I would not part with Lester or Hansen for Willis. I think anyone who would is nuts considering the kind of package you would need to include to go along with those two. No way.

 

And about his Velocity. Lester was never 93-94. He has always hovered around 90mph and can crank it up to 93-94 sometimes a little faster. He hit 95 on 20 occasions last year according to my goofy stat book from baseball america. That isn't a lot. Lester used to always pitch 88-89 before last year and I'm sure it takes building up arm strength to get up to the 90's. Not to mention I'm sure they have him working on his velocity out of the stretch being around equal with his velocity out of the wind up. It wouldn't surprise me to see him taking a little off.