5GoldGlovesOF,75

I'm leaning toward the idea of JD staying and Mookie being traded to an NL team before the 2020 season. I hope I'm wrong, except for the NL part, because I can't stomach the idea of watching Mookie play in Fenway against the Sox.

Just judging by JD's words at the end of the season -- "I kinda like moving around" -- it sounds like he'll be leaving... unless he was just posturing for a raise in Boston. But then again, his contract calls for more money this year, making an opt out next offseason more likely... unless he's got a team courting him on the sly for a better deal. JD also said, "Everyone already knows who's going to make the playoffs" last spring, and "Everyone knows they can't afford Mookie"... which is opposite from the camp that implies Betts may just want to work elsewhere. The fate of the two stars may not be connected after all; Merloni, a media member who would seem to be more informed than most as an ex-teammate of Sox employees like Varitek and Pedro, complained at the lack of trade deadline action that this was "Mookie's last year" and later gave odds he'd be traded as "90%". Ominous words when juxtaposed with Sam Kennedy's: "We need to know if Mookie wants to stay in Boston by this offseason." Or else?

DD communicated ok, but mostly only to his right-hand men like Wren and LaRussa in the end (according to Shaughnessey). Can't blame the owners for wanting more transparency and organization-wide collaboration so that all voices are valued going forward. Personally, I liked DD's candor with the media, and so to the fans; he would go public with target areas of need and then go fill them. It could have been a way of advertising to other clubs that the Sox were Open For Business, but it was definitely more refreshing than past GMs who always kept intentions secretive while saying a lot that never meant much. I do think DD's words at the past trade deadline seemed forced, though, when he was maybe no longer allowed to swap prospects for bullpen help... I wonder what exactly his plan was for 2020 that Henry and co. couldn't and wouldn't let happen? Anyone here have thoughts? For example, what would DD be more apt to do with Betts -- lock him up with 350 million or trade him for a haul of MLB ready prospects; remember last winter, when discussing potential Sox free agents, it was DD who first said, "We can't keep all of them."

Injuries obviously cast doubt on Sale and Price going forward, but let’s compare and contrast their Boston contributions so far. Sale: 3 years, 35-23, 84 starts plus 4 postseason (1 bad, 1 good), 519 IP, 3.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 15.1 WAR for 39.5 million dollars. Two Top-4 Cy Young finishes. Price: 4 years, 46-24, 98 starts plus 6 postseason (3 bad, 3 great), 588 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.8 WAR for 91 million dollars. Zero Cy Young votes. Price is owed three more years on his $30+ mil per contract. Sale’s new deal at $30+ mil per is just about to begin. The latter may seem more onerous, but age has to be a factor when considering a possible rebound – Sale’s five-year contract will run through his age 35 season… Price will be 35 next August. A final aspect is public perception. While both have reps as good teammates, fans cannot confirm what they don’t see or hear. We can see and hear that Sale at least appears to like being a Red Sox, and is accountable and respectful to the media (the conduit to the Nation). Price is the opposite, talking about holding all the cards minutes after his team won a ring or calling a press conference to smear a Hall of Fame alumni. Maybe he is shooting his mouth off to shoot his way out of town (he wouldn’t be the first Boston athlete to do so) – he suggested that he and others might be traded during last spring’s lackluster start. Or maybe he is just petulant. Either way, it’s a bad look for a franchise in a sports industry, especially one determined to revamp its product. One grabs the ball and challenges hitters, the other takes ages to throw pitches that nibble at the corners. If you owned or ran the team, who would you try to trade first?

Eovaldi threw 100 mph with a 95 cutter and showed Cy Young potential in the 2018 postseason. He had the same velos at the end of 2019 without the same results. A new pitching coach and management approach should make him a priority, and at 17 mil per year, a better value going forward than the other two injured studs at 30+ mil apiece. But if I was a Yankee fan -- and how effective Eovaldi is at Yankee Stadium and vs. the Yankee righty batters -- he'd be the one guy I'd hope Boston trades... along with Betts, of course.

So, basically, Theo didn't need to return to the Red Sox since he already runs them in the NL...

I probably wouldn't be here if we didn't. I hyperventilated so badly when he was on the mound in the '18 postseason that my wife threatened to forbid me to watch. I calmed down, but only after the Sanchez, McCann and Bregman fly balls barely stayed in the park... not to mention plays of the season -- Nunez/Pearce, Betts' throw and Beni's dive -- that saved his "saves".

Makes sense... he could also be waiting until the last required moment to declare, while seeing how his market develops. For instance, the Yanks cut loose the parrot, and now JD would have to compete for a job and dollars with another good-slug, bad-glove DH... and a cheaper version (albeit an older version who averages a hundred less OPS).

Sale was paid below market value for seven straight years of finishing in the top six in Cy Young voting. Granted, he was on a contract he signed with Chicago, but it seemed like he was on the verge of finally getting a deserved payday. So when he quickly agreed to terms last winter (as rich as they were) -- before the final year of his old contract, before a Chris Sale salary-drive season, at less than David folding-all-the-cards Price -- I have to admit I was slightly worried about damaged goods. Sox management had to be, too. As for Martinez, I'm starting to wonder: since he has acknowledged the difficulty of keeping both Betts and himself in Boston -- and knowing how beloved Mookie is with fandom -- doesn't JD ultimately have to opt out? Imagine the pressure on JD if everyone blames his decision to stay as the reason the Red Sox trade Betts? Every media scribe is saying one depends upon the other... Imagine how ugly 2020 could be for Martinez if he decides to stay in Boston, and the Sox struggle again... without Mookie?

The Astros' offense was historically anemic in the ALCS (stats from MLB.com). Batting average with runners in scoring position: Hou .109, NY .171. Batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs: Hou .048, NY .190. Batting average in the seventh or later: Hou .149, NY .176. The difference is the last three games was three-run homers. Houston had two three-run homers to win Game Four and New York had a three-run homer to win Game Five. In the finale, each side had two HRs apiece, and both jacked two-run bombs in the epic 9th... but an early three-run blast for the Astros, as opposed to a NY solo shot, was the margin of victory.

I agree with most of Jax' assessments of JD's impact on pitchers as a presence and teammates as a batting mentor. Every team uses ipads for everything now, but JD seems like the first player we really heard about with video analysis on every swing, in games and daily BP. I have to wonder if new management -- always looking for the next edge -- is ready for a slight shift in hitting philosophy... the '19 Sox had an ugly record of eight batters with over 100 strikeouts! I know it's modern MLB, and there's no going back to 1975 -- when Rice was the only Boston 100-K man. But even the '13 Red Sox only had three...

As Papi's replacement in the heart of the order, JD did what we hoped for and more. In leading Boston to a ring in '18, Martinez led the majors in RBIs in the regular season and postseason. Let's not forget he flirted with the Triple Crown that whole summer, finishing second in batting average and home runs. This past season wasn't as great, but JD was still a top ten hitter in all three Triple Crown categories, along with OBP, Slugging and OPS. Martinez was the difference-maker in the Red Sox lineup (and in the batting cages), the link missing since Ortiz' retirement. How comparable were they? Here are the last six years of Papi's averages compared to JD's past six (since the Astros cut him)-- Ortiz: 32-100-.296; .386/.567/.953... JD: 34-98-.307; .373/.581/.954. Martinez earned more b-WAR in that time, 25.1 to Ortiz' 22.5, but JD struck out a lot more, averaging nearly 60 more Ks per year (141 to 83). All modern batters whiff more nowadays, but Sox fans would also rather not see JD in the outfield. Still... it just sucks that a wealthy team feels it has to let such go of such a vital cog. Is it really feasible to count on the development of Chavis and maybe Casas, and the continued improvement of Devers -- who just led the majors in extra base-hits -- to make up for JD's Papi-like production in the next three years? Maybe Minnesota or Houston has another young slugger they'll cut that we can sign at a minimum...

A lot of good points made here. The human element will always be important; the game is played by humans, after all. Batters and pitchers just want to know a guy's strike zone early and hope it stays consistent throughout the game. This isn't playoff hockey, when refs swallow their whistles in the third period. As players, we're always adjusting to the zone... is he calling it below the knees? Pitcher's ump. Does it have to be mid-thigh? Hitter's ump (but please don't make me have to swing at something two balls off the corner). Hopefully, everyone can stay respectful to the game; no matter what you may think of Correa, he showed class last night when he got rung up on an inside pitch with the Series on the line. Baseball is all about making adjustments; it's the very essence of the game and we don't want to lose that aspect. Yesterday, some ex-big league pitchers on MLB radio were discussing robo umps used in the minors, and noted that calls fluctuated depending on the release point of a pitcher's delivery. They said sidearmers lost a lot of strike calls. Doesn't that defeat the whole purpose of the premise?

I really, really hate the Fox Box -- that artificial outline imposed on my TV screen that approximates the strike zone. For me, it distracts and detracts from watching the games, mainly because it adds more stress to any viewer with a rooting interest when human umps make different calls from where the ball lands inside or outside those glowing borders. This obnoxious rectangle is ever deceptive for many reasons, including the camera angles from behind the pitcher (always off to the side), the literal strike zone (which should change according to batters' heights and stances) and where the ball actually crosses the plate (and not when it hits the catcher's mitt). The human element is never perfect, but neither is the technology. At least not this technology. The guy behind home plate in Game Seven was probably the most consistent of the Series. I don't mind the replays -- the overhead shots show a more accurate perspective -- but during actual time I'd rather see what only people see on the field. For this reason, and because it was so hard to stomach watching Boston pitchers go to full counts on virtually every batter this summer, I chose the option of listening to more Sox games on the radio this year.

"The only way he's playing 81 games at Fenway in 2021 is if the Sox have the highest offer after next season." If that's what it comes down to, I'd be more confident... but I have a nagging feeling it may also be about location, location, location.

"Both of those options cost about the same by reducing the payroll by ~$30M and they keep the team relatively competitive." And yet, this is a perfect illustration of why Mookie is worth a 30 mil per contract: if JD goes, we lose high quality offense; if JBJ goes we lose high quality defense... if Betts goes, we lose both high quality offense and defense.

I know, poor choice of words on my part, but to revise: we wanted to think they still had a chance when they almost swept the Yanks... then Sale lost on a Sunday, the trade deadline came without reinforcements -- with DD admitting it wasn't worth it -- and Merloni told us all, "It's over. They're done." On freaking July 31st.

The package Boston demands for Betts has to be steep, or they're better off keeping him at the value he'll produce in his salary-drive walk-year smack-dab in his prime. I totally agree that MLB-ready prospects have to be part of the deal to best ensure a competitive team in 2020 and beyond. But there will be very few clubs willing to give up so much unless they really think they can sign Mookie and that he'll be the missing piece to put them over the top. Which teams are title-contenders loaded with prospects and money?

My eye-tests weren't looking at WAR totals when deciding that Bogaerts and Devers were more valuable than Betts in 2019. I watched all the games, and Betts seldom sparked the offense as a leadoff or came through in the clutch when the Sox were still in it. He struck out a lot to lead off games, and popped up to right a lot with runners on base. I also read game threads on this site and another, and most posters agreed with this assessment. He also wasn't quite as sharp in the field during the first half, with some uncharacteristic miscommunications that were maybe endemic of a lack of hunger and focus that the whole club seemed to display. Mookie seemed to be better the last two months, when the Sox faded and the pressure was off. Mookie Betts is my favorite player, I want him to be a Red Sox for his entire Hall of Fame career, and I think if he's allowed to go elsewhere it will turn out to be Boston's biggest regret since Bagwell. But Bogie and Rafie were the most consistent players all season, hitting and making plays more when it mattered.

I'm old school, and distrustful of any stat the average fan can't calculate quickly with elementary math operations. However, I try not to go all Goose Gossage -- "get that WAR off my mound" -- because WAR has supplanted all those numbers we (and the game for about a century) grew up on. WAR is the go-to stat for the people who run the MLB, from analytics departments to media nominating and voting on award winners. But observers like us who watch or listen to virtually every Red Sox game of the season know statistics can never replace the eye-test. Betts and Martinez didn't deserve to be All-Stars over Devers this summer, and even though Mookie had the highest WAR, few would dispute that Boston's MVPs this season were Devers and Bogaerts.

Agreed that the latter is always a risk, but normal declines for the same players as they age often make it worth it; say the 7 guy declines to 5, and the other four to 1 each... As for tying up money, it's not that rich clubs can't afford the contracts, it's the taxes they want to avoid. Then again, the union contract is up soon and the MLB is due for changes. But teams are well aware that they reap the benefits of long-term signings at the front end and just have to accept some lost investment at the back end. In terms of value, for someone making 30 mil for 10 years, you may have to look at it like you're actually paying him 43.3 mil for the first 6, then 10 mil for the last 4.

"It was the gift that just kept giving." Ok, I have to admit that was pretty cool connecting Cabrera to Kevin Bacon. I still suspect something nefarious was involved, otherwise someone in the media would've broken it down... imagine if Alex Speier was around then?

Bloom had Cron in Tampa in 2018 -- he hit 30 homers, then right after the season was allowed to be taken off waivers by the Twins. I found that curious to say the least... if it was a salary dump, Minnesota more than doubled his pay this past year. Not every baseball move makes sense to fans, though we hope they're all part of a plan. Corey Dickerson was another; All-Star in Tampa in '17, traded that winter for Daniel Hudson, who was then released at the end of Spring Training. Orlando Cabrera, acquired at the deadline in '04, was a superior upgrade for Nomar at shortstop, a solid hitter and cheerleader/handshaker in the dugout. I loved it after Gm 7 in NY when he held up four fingers on one hand and an empty fist on the other to the crowd. What compelled the Sox to immediately replace OC with Renteria, a guy who couldn't hack it in Boston? No sportswriter or talk show personality has ever sufficiently explained the move. I suspect some know the truth and can't/won't divulge. Something was up, because Cabrera then played for seven different teams for the last seven years of his career. But including the Sox, five of them went to the playoffs with him as a regular. Guy was a winner.

Or with next year's rules, maybe Bloom stockpiles 8 mid-level starters to go only 3 or 4 three innings apiece, with two each working every four days in a consistent rotation, and a four-man pen, with two guys splitting the 8th and 9th every other day. Starters would target one time through the order, go all out and never have to pace themselves, with close to the usual days of rest in between. Sooner or later, though, the MLB has to modify the official scoring of how a starter is eligible to be credited with a victory (like Moon points out, the only staffs left in the bigs where starters go five anymore are in the World Series).

"Relief Pitching will be exactly like 2019. cheap, cheap, and cheap. i expect C-BOOM to pull the trigger on a number of dirt cheap, lightning in a bottle, bounceback type signings for RPing." I totally agree. As Moon said, almost all the big name relievers on the last market sucked. Last offseason reporters were all touting the Yankees' as the architects of the greatest bullpen in history, but I couldn't see it. They basically replaced Robertson with Ottavino. Chapman, Britton, Kahnle, Green -- all had better campaigns before this year. In the past, the all-time best bullpens were anchored by the all-time best closers: Rivera, with lefty-righty set-up men like Stanton and Jeff Nelson... or Eckerlsy, with Honeycutt and Gene Nelson. Eck had one year with more saves than base-runners allowed; that'll get it done. Lately, very few arms don't wear out by season's end, necessitating bullpen depth where quantity supersedes quality. Maybe the trend changes with the new three-batter minimum.