5GoldGlovesOF,75

As Papi's replacement in the heart of the order, JD did what we hoped for and more. In leading Boston to a ring in '18, Martinez led the majors in RBIs in the regular season and postseason. Let's not forget he flirted with the Triple Crown that whole summer, finishing second in batting average and home runs. This past season wasn't as great, but JD was still a top ten hitter in all three Triple Crown categories, along with OBP, Slugging and OPS. Martinez was the difference-maker in the Red Sox lineup (and in the batting cages), the link missing since Ortiz' retirement. How comparable were they? Here are the last six years of Papi's averages compared to JD's past six (since the Astros cut him)-- Ortiz: 32-100-.296; .386/.567/.953... JD: 34-98-.307; .373/.581/.954. Martinez earned more b-WAR in that time, 25.1 to Ortiz' 22.5, but JD struck out a lot more, averaging nearly 60 more Ks per year (141 to 83). All modern batters whiff more nowadays, but Sox fans would also rather not see JD in the outfield. Still... it just sucks that a wealthy team feels it has to let such go of such a vital cog. Is it really feasible to count on the development of Chavis and maybe Casas, and the continued improvement of Devers -- who just led the majors in extra base-hits -- to make up for JD's Papi-like production in the next three years? Maybe Minnesota or Houston has another young slugger they'll cut that we can sign at a minimum...

A lot of good points made here. The human element will always be important; the game is played by humans, after all. Batters and pitchers just want to know a guy's strike zone early and hope it stays consistent throughout the game. This isn't playoff hockey, when refs swallow their whistles in the third period. As players, we're always adjusting to the zone... is he calling it below the knees? Pitcher's ump. Does it have to be mid-thigh? Hitter's ump (but please don't make me have to swing at something two balls off the corner). Hopefully, everyone can stay respectful to the game; no matter what you may think of Correa, he showed class last night when he got rung up on an inside pitch with the Series on the line. Baseball is all about making adjustments; it's the very essence of the game and we don't want to lose that aspect. Yesterday, some ex-big league pitchers on MLB radio were discussing robo umps used in the minors, and noted that calls fluctuated depending on the release point of a pitcher's delivery. They said sidearmers lost a lot of strike calls. Doesn't that defeat the whole purpose of the premise?

I really, really hate the Fox Box -- that artificial outline imposed on my TV screen that approximates the strike zone. For me, it distracts and detracts from watching the games, mainly because it adds more stress to any viewer with a rooting interest when human umps make different calls from where the ball lands inside or outside those glowing borders. This obnoxious rectangle is ever deceptive for many reasons, including the camera angles from behind the pitcher (always off to the side), the literal strike zone (which should change according to batters' heights and stances) and where the ball actually crosses the plate (and not when it hits the catcher's mitt). The human element is never perfect, but neither is the technology. At least not this technology. The guy behind home plate in Game Seven was probably the most consistent of the Series. I don't mind the replays -- the overhead shots show a more accurate perspective -- but during actual time I'd rather see what only people see on the field. For this reason, and because it was so hard to stomach watching Boston pitchers go to full counts on virtually every batter this summer, I chose the option of listening to more Sox games on the radio this year.

"The only way he's playing 81 games at Fenway in 2021 is if the Sox have the highest offer after next season." If that's what it comes down to, I'd be more confident... but I have a nagging feeling it may also be about location, location, location.

"Both of those options cost about the same by reducing the payroll by ~$30M and they keep the team relatively competitive." And yet, this is a perfect illustration of why Mookie is worth a 30 mil per contract: if JD goes, we lose high quality offense; if JBJ goes we lose high quality defense... if Betts goes, we lose both high quality offense and defense.

I know, poor choice of words on my part, but to revise: we wanted to think they still had a chance when they almost swept the Yanks... then Sale lost on a Sunday, the trade deadline came without reinforcements -- with DD admitting it wasn't worth it -- and Merloni told us all, "It's over. They're done." On freaking July 31st.

The package Boston demands for Betts has to be steep, or they're better off keeping him at the value he'll produce in his salary-drive walk-year smack-dab in his prime. I totally agree that MLB-ready prospects have to be part of the deal to best ensure a competitive team in 2020 and beyond. But there will be very few clubs willing to give up so much unless they really think they can sign Mookie and that he'll be the missing piece to put them over the top. Which teams are title-contenders loaded with prospects and money?

My eye-tests weren't looking at WAR totals when deciding that Bogaerts and Devers were more valuable than Betts in 2019. I watched all the games, and Betts seldom sparked the offense as a leadoff or came through in the clutch when the Sox were still in it. He struck out a lot to lead off games, and popped up to right a lot with runners on base. I also read game threads on this site and another, and most posters agreed with this assessment. He also wasn't quite as sharp in the field during the first half, with some uncharacteristic miscommunications that were maybe endemic of a lack of hunger and focus that the whole club seemed to display. Mookie seemed to be better the last two months, when the Sox faded and the pressure was off. Mookie Betts is my favorite player, I want him to be a Red Sox for his entire Hall of Fame career, and I think if he's allowed to go elsewhere it will turn out to be Boston's biggest regret since Bagwell. But Bogie and Rafie were the most consistent players all season, hitting and making plays more when it mattered.

I'm old school, and distrustful of any stat the average fan can't calculate quickly with elementary math operations. However, I try not to go all Goose Gossage -- "get that WAR off my mound" -- because WAR has supplanted all those numbers we (and the game for about a century) grew up on. WAR is the go-to stat for the people who run the MLB, from analytics departments to media nominating and voting on award winners. But observers like us who watch or listen to virtually every Red Sox game of the season know statistics can never replace the eye-test. Betts and Martinez didn't deserve to be All-Stars over Devers this summer, and even though Mookie had the highest WAR, few would dispute that Boston's MVPs this season were Devers and Bogaerts.

Agreed that the latter is always a risk, but normal declines for the same players as they age often make it worth it; say the 7 guy declines to 5, and the other four to 1 each... As for tying up money, it's not that rich clubs can't afford the contracts, it's the taxes they want to avoid. Then again, the union contract is up soon and the MLB is due for changes. But teams are well aware that they reap the benefits of long-term signings at the front end and just have to accept some lost investment at the back end. In terms of value, for someone making 30 mil for 10 years, you may have to look at it like you're actually paying him 43.3 mil for the first 6, then 10 mil for the last 4.

"It was the gift that just kept giving." Ok, I have to admit that was pretty cool connecting Cabrera to Kevin Bacon. I still suspect something nefarious was involved, otherwise someone in the media would've broken it down... imagine if Alex Speier was around then?

Bloom had Cron in Tampa in 2018 -- he hit 30 homers, then right after the season was allowed to be taken off waivers by the Twins. I found that curious to say the least... if it was a salary dump, Minnesota more than doubled his pay this past year. Not every baseball move makes sense to fans, though we hope they're all part of a plan. Corey Dickerson was another; All-Star in Tampa in '17, traded that winter for Daniel Hudson, who was then released at the end of Spring Training. Orlando Cabrera, acquired at the deadline in '04, was a superior upgrade for Nomar at shortstop, a solid hitter and cheerleader/handshaker in the dugout. I loved it after Gm 7 in NY when he held up four fingers on one hand and an empty fist on the other to the crowd. What compelled the Sox to immediately replace OC with Renteria, a guy who couldn't hack it in Boston? No sportswriter or talk show personality has ever sufficiently explained the move. I suspect some know the truth and can't/won't divulge. Something was up, because Cabrera then played for seven different teams for the last seven years of his career. But including the Sox, five of them went to the playoffs with him as a regular. Guy was a winner.

Or with next year's rules, maybe Bloom stockpiles 8 mid-level starters to go only 3 or 4 three innings apiece, with two each working every four days in a consistent rotation, and a four-man pen, with two guys splitting the 8th and 9th every other day. Starters would target one time through the order, go all out and never have to pace themselves, with close to the usual days of rest in between. Sooner or later, though, the MLB has to modify the official scoring of how a starter is eligible to be credited with a victory (like Moon points out, the only staffs left in the bigs where starters go five anymore are in the World Series).

"Relief Pitching will be exactly like 2019. cheap, cheap, and cheap. i expect C-BOOM to pull the trigger on a number of dirt cheap, lightning in a bottle, bounceback type signings for RPing." I totally agree. As Moon said, almost all the big name relievers on the last market sucked. Last offseason reporters were all touting the Yankees' as the architects of the greatest bullpen in history, but I couldn't see it. They basically replaced Robertson with Ottavino. Chapman, Britton, Kahnle, Green -- all had better campaigns before this year. In the past, the all-time best bullpens were anchored by the all-time best closers: Rivera, with lefty-righty set-up men like Stanton and Jeff Nelson... or Eckerlsy, with Honeycutt and Gene Nelson. Eck had one year with more saves than base-runners allowed; that'll get it done. Lately, very few arms don't wear out by season's end, necessitating bullpen depth where quantity supersedes quality. Maybe the trend changes with the new three-batter minimum.

Maybe baseball fans -- and even Red Sox fans, insulated in the Nation -- don't really fully realize the rare opportunity ahead of Betts. Based on Mookie's first six years of production, on the eve of his prime, we may just witness a free agent who is worth and actually earns one of the top contracts in baseball. His next half dozen seasons may turn out comparable to the best signings in history; maybe not Bonds or Maddux, but think Manny Ramirez, who accumulated 29.6 b-WAR in his first six Boston years at ages 29-34. Most would acknowledge Manny as the Sox' all-time big-money free agent signing, and in those first six years he averaged 4.9 WAR, which resulted in All-Star selections and AL MVP votes every season. Does anyone here think it's unreasonable to expect Mookie Betts -- who averaged 7 WAR for six years from ages 21-26 -- to earn at least 4.9 WAR for the next six? The problem as I see it isn't whether Mookie will be worth the investment. For those worried about his body size, I previously listed recent Hall of Famers considered short of stature and their WAR through their prime years; Mookie is on target for at least comparable Hall of Fame production. One player that didn't sustain stardom through his prime -- and someone with whom Betts was compared early on -- is Andrew McCutcheon. Injuries were surely a factor, but we don't if his training and lifestyle habits were similar to Mookie's. Here's the issue: Sox management has continually alluded to the uncertainty of whether Betts wants to stay in Boston. Henry yesterday said one of the factors is "where Mookie wants to play — for the long term." Not for how much... Such words seem consistent with Kennedy's from months past: "If Mookie wants to play here, we will pay him." Unless the front office is posturing in negotiation-mode (and is prepared for their best offer to fall short of someone else's max bid) then this case may really be beyond their control. That's where Bloom's connections at all levels of the industry will make the best of the situation...

If the MLB still uses the superball, then 30-homer guys won't be hard to find at various prices and ages. Low budget teams like the Rays -- or frugal-minded Bloom clubs -- might rather rotate several players at DH, where cumulative production may be part of a plan. Boras' case will undoubtedly be that JD is arguably the best in baseball at his position. Who's better? Cruz... not the parrot or Kris Davis... Vogelbach made the All-Star team and walks a lot, but hit a hundred points lower. Martinez can't keep himself from flailing at sliders down and away, but he still has a solid approach, great work habits and impacts the batting order in positive ways on and off the field, talking hitting and helping teammates improve. JD is making a hundred million dollars in a city with devoted fan attendance and a management committed to competing, but if he wants to work somewhere with warmer weather for a few mil more, then we'll thank him for his service and -- like many others before him -- see him after retirement when he comes back for events and reunions in the best place he ever played...

Those are reasonable incremental evaluations (based on estimates of contributions on the field, I assume, with peaks at the front and decline at the end of the contract). Let's say Betts' production is worth top of the pay-scale the next four years, with a few top-fives in WAR and MVP voting; if any of those campaigns result in another world title, I wonder how much additional off-field value can be factored in as the face -- and back (sales of #50 uniforms and t-shirts) -- of the franchise?

This post isn't exactly written to defend Dombrowski, but something I've been thinking about a long time: the unpredictable performances of acquired established relievers. Most of us didn't mind letting Kimbrel and Kelly walk, but were concerned DD didn't replace them with "names". Ottavino could have been had and kept out of pinstripes...he had a solid regular season but a bad post, and now he gets to face New York fans and press for two more years. DD was notorious for neglecting the pen in Detroit ("DavidOrtizDavidOrtiz") but upon reflection, it's not like he didn't try here. Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg were total busts but both had really good seasons for other clubs the year before he traded for them; there was actually an article written on one site using analytics that cited Thornburg as a sleeper power arm that GMs should target. Addison Reed was ok for half a season. Kimbrel was great but then a great risk, and let go just in time. Kelly was a converted MLB starter. But such fluctuations have been a pattern for at least a decade, as the pitiful history of relief recruits began before Dombro, with three crap trades for All-Star closers who were worthless in Boston: Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon and Joel Hanrahan. If there's a lesson in such deals whose results are so mercurial, maybe it's don't swap position players for bullpen arms that tend to burn out quickly under modern usage (for example, keep the likes of Reddick, Lowrie, Travis Shaw, Dubon, etc). I am intrigued to see how Bloom alters the pitching staff. The best trade deadline pick-up this summer was the Rays getting Nick Anderson from Miami. Tampa gave up Ryne Stanek, which I thought odd since he was their number one opener; at best, the deal seemed like a wash. But maybe it makes more sense to target a young arm to fill a specific need by offering up another young arm (which won't weaken position player depth). The Rays also pulled this off with Boston in '18, giving up Eovaldi for Beeks. Stay tuned...

This is a great point: the Unsolved Mystery of 2019, way more because of its short- and long-term effects than rewarding Pearce or Eovaldi (who was the second most sought-after starter behind Corbin). Fans, media and officials from other clubs have been skeptical since the Sale signing. No doubt management was encouraged if not infatuated with his dominance in the final frame of the 2018 season. It is hard to believe, however, that an entire front office was equal parts hopeful that it was legit and fearful that if they didn't extend it would cost treasure chests more if they waited. It's obviously their job to know way more about baseball than any of us... there had to be debate about this contract. After the World Series, considering Sale's late-season burn-outs at the end of '17 and '18, I actually figured that his future may be as a closer. After all, Kimbrel was a heart-attack in the postseason and Cora had already replaced him with Sale in Game 7. Other star starters had converted in the past, like Eckersly and Smoltz, and for the argument that big money is too much for relievers, didn't the whole modern game revolve around bullpens? Maybe, hopefully, the new three-batter minimum changes things...

Good points. Miscommunication defines humanity, especially in this age of email and texts devoid of eye contact, facial expression and intonation (except for uppercase letters or generic acronyms and emojis). But those same devices make it impossible not to save or record any business plan to refer back to; gone are the days when owners can shake on a trade of Ted Williams for Joe DiMaggio and then call it off the next morning when they sober up. No matter what, in pro sports, at least, GMs and managers understand they're "hired to be fired", and than an owner's nod ultimately implies, "This better work or else..."

Good point. I think some posters or lurkers here are understandably concerned Henry may eventually lose his own interest (no pun intended). His words were inconsistent and contradictory last season: in early spring, he talked about how important it was to lock up Sale, citing his leadership (barking in the dugout during the WS), regretting the Lester negotiations, etc... then by mid-summer Henry didn't want to add payroll, most likely nixed any deadline deals, and by fall was saying he had disagreed with DD's plans since right after the WS celebration. I am intrigued to see Bloom's plans for the new pitching rule of 2020: the three-batter minimun. Finding or developing pitchers with more longevity would seem to be a priority, whether it's adding a lot of guys with starting experience or stretching out young relievers. Bloom may be leaving Tampa just in time, because one thing's for sure: Cash won't be allowed to go lefty-righty every nine innings anymore.

"It seems a shame to waste this talent." Right on. We have to trust that management understands this and even has formulas for windows for how long to go for it and the potential profits of more titles vs. investments, etc. It's also why astute Yankee fans are keeping their fingers crossed that a guy like Betts is traded. As a Sox fan, I would love it if New York dealt Judge for a haul of prospects that combined have a 99% chance of never replacing his value... because we all know that Judge is the one Yankee most likely to produce an MVP season and lead his club to a title.

Bloom's strengths, as pointed out by others here, include locating, acquiring and stockpiling young affordable arms. As for the Big Three, maybe Sale and Price have peaked, with injuries and age taking their toll. But no matter how much Yankee fans hope they're done, a bounce-back from at least one wouldn't be shocking. We're talking about the AL's top two winners from 2012-18: Price 102, Sale 99; the latter also had the lowest ERA 2.91 and led in Ks. The number one project for new coaches has to be Eovaldi, who returned from surgery throwing 100 with a 95 cutter and still got knocked around. I'd argue he was the Sox' most consistent and even most valuable player for the entire postseason in '18. Price threw three great games in a row -- his best in a Boston uniform -- so it's easy to forget he got crushed by NY and had a bad first start vs Houston. Eovaldi was great in any role, but his game in New York was the turning point. Two days after Judge played Sinatra in Fenway, Nate walked into Yankee Stadium in a tied series, with rabid fans hanging and banging over the walls, and was lights out. He has potential Cy Young stuff, and if the right teachers can help him, may turn out to be the best signing of any Sox starter. Remember, the runners-up in the bidding for Eovaldi were the Astros... and they seem to know their pitchers.

I'd say it's worth it. No matter how the offseason goes with position player contracts, Bloom's main focus has to be pitching; a specialty of his with the Rays. The Red Sox need to change the culture of a pitching staff that nibbles, goes to full counts on every batter, and leads the league in bases on balls (like they did this year). They need more guys like Urquidy, the Astros' World Series hero, hurlers who work fast and throw strikes. It just makes for a better product -- on the field, keeping the defense on its toes -- and off the field, keeping fans awake, alert and ultimately tuned in.

I'm sworn to secrecy. As for the friends of ours in the offices of Fenway... soon, it will be time to settle all family business.