Fan_since_Boggs

The Red Sox have too many hitters in the lineup who are easy outs, don't put together competitive at bats, and this has to change. Dalbec and Chavis are part of the problem; Gonzalez is a problem too, but he is a backup and so is easier to tolerate. In contrast, we have higher expectations for Dalbec and Chavis, hoping they can develop into starting players, but their hit tool is so poor that they will likely never be regular major league starters. Fortunately, the Red Sox can fix such problems easily enough--promoting Duran will help and trading for a starting 1b like C.Santana will be a huge upgrade for the offense. If the Red Sox are playing baseball in October it will be important to purge the roster of marginal hit tools in the starting lineup--and thus Chavis and Dalbec have no future with the Red Sox as starters. I can live with Chavis as a backup, since he can play a few more positions than Dalbec. Dalbec should be part of the C.Santana trade, since the Royals can play him and without needing to win in the short term.

Funny, I thought of Roy Oswalt too as a pretty good comparison for Jack Leiter. Cora mentioned Oswalt when talking about Leiter: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/jack-leiter-potential-boston-red-sox-draft-pick-reminds-alex-cora-of-roy-oswalt-a-little-bit-stronger-with-a-good-fastball-and-breaking-ball.html I don't quite remember what happened to Oswalt. He was a top of the rotation starter for around 10 years, but his career faded away pretty quickly and he was out of baseball by his mid-to-late 30s. I suppose it is possible that his smaller size worked against him in the long run and he couldn't sustain his elite stuff into his 30s, but maybe he had an injury, I don't remember anymore. I do remember that he was an elite starting pitcher with the Astros for a lengthy period of time. Yeah, if Leiter can be another Roy Oswalt--a dominant SP for ten years or so--I would be very happy with the Red Sox drafting him at 4. Also, Cora is awesome, my favorite Red Sox manager, but he shouldn't talk about Leiter. We want Leiter to fall to the Red Sox at 4, but when Cora compares him to Roy Oswalt, maybe the Pirates/Rangers/Tigers hear that and it increases their interest in Leiter. Then again, it probably doesn't matter, Leiter isn't going to be available at 4 with or without Cora's comments.

The Red Sox would definitely be a better team this year if they had Benintendi, but the Red Sox will hopefully win the deal long term especially if Winckowski can develop into a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter.

I would do the following NOW: 1. DFA Santana, add Duran to the 40-man and promote him to CF/leadoff. 2. DFA Workman, add K.Ort to the 40-man and promote him. 3. Send G.Richards to the bullpen. When Richards' spot comes up in the rotation, promote Houck (who replaces Richards in the rotation), and DFA Andriese (opening a spot on the 40 man roster). 4. Begin trade talks for a starting 1b. Dalbec is not the answer. In fact, I'm starting to think that 1b is the Red Sox biggest need going into the trade deadline. With Houck, Sale, Braiser, and a potential contributor in Olt the Red Sox might have all the pitching reinforcements they need, but they don't have a major league starting first baseman on the roster or at the Triple A level. The Royals C.Santana would definitely be an ideal trade acquisition.

As I'm considering Jobe, I decided to take a look at Red Sox history of drafting High School arms in round 1 (21st Century): 2016: J.Groome 2014: M.Kopech 2013: T.Ball 2012: P.Light 2011: H.Owens 2008: C.Kelly 2006: C.Clay 2005: M.Bowden I forgot all about Casey Kelly. LOL. I had high hopes for him. The list isn't a total disaster--Kopech is a major talent, although he has problems staying healthy. A better idea might be to look at Prep arms taken in the top 5 over the last 10 drafts, maybe I'll look at that soon. It is worth noting that the best Red Sox draftee Prep Arm was Jon Lester, who was taken in the second round in 2002.

Forget Rocker, this is what Callis had to say: OK, so this is what we are left with: Pirates: Mayer Rangers: Leiter Tigers: Davis Red Sox: Lawlar OR Jobe? If the Tigers take Lawlar or Jobe, the Red Sox take Davis, but the Tigers are more interested in a college prospect, someone closer to the major leagues, which is why Davis makes the most sense. If the Tigers do take Davis, I would prefer Jobe over Lawlar, but maybe the Red Sox will go with the SS.

The Red Sox will probably promote Duran soon. He keeps hitting in Triple A. This is not too complicated: promote Duran and release Santana. Also, if the Rays can bat Franco in the third spot, why can't the Red Sox immediately put Duran in the leadoff spot? I'm not saying Duran is a better prospect than Franco, no one is, but Duran is a tremendous talent as well. The Red Sox haven't been getting any production out of the leadoff spot anyway.

Agreed; but maybe if the Red Sox turn him into a one inning reliever he could regain some stuff. That's my hope, my only hope for Richards at this point. Richards was definitely a cheater--you could tell from that press conference.

What are your thoughts on the Red Sox taking Jobe, Hugh? Let's say Leiter isn't available at 4 (he probably won't be), would you object to the Red Sox taking Jobe?

Although, when you look at the soon-to-be free agents, there aren't any bonafide ace types deserving of big bucks. The Red Sox really need C.Sale to return and take on the role of ace starter. If Sale does take on that role, the Red Sox will have some quality pitchers around him including Eovaldi and the younger guys with superior stuff: Whitlock and Houck. Hopefully, two or three years from now, we will be very happy that Dombrowski resigned Sale to that contract after all.

If the Red Sox don't want to use a six man rotation, they will probably move Richards to the bullpen when Houck returns, which should be soon. Agreed: the Red Sox will not pick up Richards option for next season. He is a waste of space for the most part but will hopefully help the Red Sox down the stretch as a reliever.

Pretty good analysis here: The key point is that a college player probably doesn't fit in with the Pirates competitive timeline. The Red Sox just need one of the three teams in front of them to take a high school player. If that happens, the Red Sox are guaranteed one of the following: Leiter, Rocker, Davis.

John Elway did something similar to Eli. Moon, what about Rocker's inconsistency with his velocity--does that bother you? I keep thinking that might be a sign of future arm trouble. I wonder if these organizations can request medicals or even do their own physical? I wouldn't want to take Rocker at 4 without looking at his arm/elbow/shoulder, and make sure there are no red flags. I'm warming up to Rocker, though. Maybe his velocity inconsistencies are due a failure to repeat his delivery, a problem the Red Sox could easily fix. I also like his size, bigger body/frame than Leiter.

Cole needs a nickname and I have the perfect one, how about Gerrit "Sticky Fingers" Cole? Video evidence: Unless I'm mistaken, I think Cole is scheduled to pitch against the Red Sox on Sunday and the game will be on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball? I hope that is correct--the pressure will be on Sticky Fingers Cole to perform without cheating. I love how they are enforcing this rule. Keep it up, MLB.

Eli Manning is a pretty good comparison--he didn't want any part of the Chargers and wanted to go to the more prestigious organization in the Giants. It sounds like Leiter has high bonus demands when speaking to a team like the Pirates but would happily sign with the Red Sox for whatever money is slotted for the fourth pick. Thus, he would be willing to take less money for a more prestigious organization. The Pirates and Red Sox, in particular, are at opposite ends of the spectrum when we consider the value and public perception of MLB organizations. I don't think Leiter's strategy is going to work though, not when a team like the Rangers is willing to pay full slot value for a talent like Leiter. At the end of the day, he will sign even though he would prefer to be drafted by the Red Sox. The Tigers already have a really good young C in their system but I'm also worried they make take Davis. It sounds like the GM is under some pressure and and thus may target a college player over a high school player. The Tigers may conclude that Davis' bat is too good to pass on, and will simply move him to another position. I wonder if Davis can play 3b? He has the arm for it, but if not 3b, definitely LF or RF. Let's say I'm right about the Pirates and let's say the Tigers are determined to take a college player and can't pass on Davis' bat. Moreover, Leiter is probably too good to not go to the Rangers at 2. Pirates: Mayer Rangers: Leiter Tigers: Davis This is the worst case scenario for me, since my two top choices, Davis and Leiter, are off the board when the Red Sox pick. In this scenario, do the Red Sox take Rocker? Do they take the big gamble in Jobe? Do they take Lawlar?

Leiter is a spoiled rich kid--I could see that kind of personality wanting to go to Boston for the prestige, to fulfill his sense of entitlement. The Red Sox don't have a great recent history of developing pitchers, but Leiter probably thinks that won't apply to him, and he will make it to the major leagues quickly enough. The Red Sox aren't exactly loaded with pitching prospects, and so Leiter would immediately be the Red Sox top pitching prospect. With that said, I think teams are prepared to pay Leiter full slot bonus and call his bluff. I think he goes to the Rangers. I'm starting to think the Pirates may not take Davis. Does Davis fit in with the Pirates rebuilding plan? Davis could be ready for the major leagues by 2023, but if the Pirates plan to suck for another 4-5 years as they accumulate draft picks and build an elite farm system, a high school prospect like Mayer would fit in much better with the Pirates competitive timeline. Accordingly, I'm changing my top 4: Pirates: Mayer Rangers: Leiter Tigers: Rocker Red Sox: Davis I hope it does indeed unfold this way--Davis is my preferred choice for the Red Sox. I'll take him over the prep shortstops and Leiter.

Cole still has really good stuff when he isn't cheating, but he isn't going to be quite as dominant going forward.

I'm starting to think the Tigers might go college, leaving the Red Sox to take the first high school kid. Pirates: Davis Rangers: Leiter Tigers: Rocker Red Sox: Mayer

The free agency class is pretty weak -- if you want to add a top starter, you will need to do it through a trade and thus the Red Sox would need to trade some top prospects. I'm not sure if Bloom has an appetite for that. I saw his comments and thought they were quite "suspicious." He hasn't performed well in his last two starts.

LOL. There is not substitute for Alphabetical Order. As far as leadoff goes, I'm thinking J.Duran will soon occupy that spot in the order, but that would also put two lefties at the top of the lineup--Duran and Verdugo. Moreoever, expecting a rookie to adjust to the major leagues while batting leadoff is probably a bad idea. Maybe you don't promote Duran at all and trade for S.Marte: Verdugo--leadoff Martinez Devers Bogaerts Marte Renfroe You could also do this: Verdugo--leadoff Martinez Bogaerts Devers Renfroe Marte I would expect the Yankees to be in on Marte, since they are stuck with a washed up CF in B.Gardner.

It sounds like the Red Sox might employ a 6-man rotation when Houck is ready. Houck is probably 2 weeks away? Cora has said he wants to give the Red Sox starters some extra rest. Let's say the Red Sox go to the six-man rotation and everyone stays healthy when Chris Sale returns later in the year. What do the Red Sox do then? Keep the six man rotation and move Richards to the bullpen?

True enough. I was looking more into the future--if the Yankees extend Judge to around 30 million a year, around 55 million of the Yankees payroll will be locked into Stanton and Judge, two guys who have a penchant for injuries, something that will likely increase as they get older. Edit: I just read that the Marlins will be kicking in 10 million in 2026 and 2027 -- that helps the Yankees bring down the cost of Stanton. With that said, the Yankees are paying Stanton 32 million in 2023, 2024, and 2025. If they sign Judge to a 30 million dollar per year contract, the Yankees would pay Stanton and Judge together 62 million for 2023, 2024, and 2025. The Marlins relief begins in 2026.

I see Ort as someone who could get Workman's roster spot. Since Workman is out of options, Ort would give the Red Sox more flexibility. Richards pitched from the bullpen a few times in 2020 with the Padres. He also gained bullpen experience back in 2012 and 2013 with the Angels.

How about a 7 year 210 million dollar contract for Judge in the offseason? Get it done Cashman, Red Sox fans are rooting for it. 8 years at 240 million would be even better. Stanton's contract (no trade) runs until 2027 (with a club option for 2028). Thus, a generous Judge extension would lock both of them up for a long time.

Good post. I remember the first Sonny Gray trade. It looks like the two OFs, Fowler and Mateo, will amount to little or nothing. But Kaprielian looks like a quality pitcher, just needs to stay healthy.