Fan_since_Boggs

Does it make sense to put Ward on the 40 man? Or maybe he goes on the 40 man and is moved to the 60 day IL?

His fastball/changeup combination. I'm more impressed with his scouting reports, and potential as a reliever, than his current numbers at Double A. His raw stuff should improve as a one inning reliever--he fastball is mid 90s (as a starter) and can go higher as a one inning reliever. But his numbers as a starter are worse than I thought. His ratios suck and so maybe I wouldn't bother protecting him. I would like to see the Red Sox move him to the bullpen, just to see if he can show signs of dominance as a one inning reliever. edit: Kutter Crawford is a dark horse for the 40-man. He has some impressive ratios but to what extent would his stuff play up as a one inning reliever? That's the big question.

Agree with your selections, but I would add German to that list. German hasn't impressed as a starter, but he has really good stuff and profiles as a quality reliever. Also, if Scherff continues to impress after his Double A promotion, he gets protected. I am less certain about Feltman. Edit: Duran will obviously be added. Groome is already on the 40 man and that will continue unless of course he is traded. Edit2: maybe I'm wrong about German--his numbers do suck at Double A, don't they? LOL. Kutter Crawford is an interesting guy. Is he the kind of pitcher who could take off as a reliever? His Double A numbers are impressive--strikeout and walk totals.

A one year 16 million dollar contract for Kimbrel next season is not a major economic commitment for the Red Sox. In fact, in some ways it is a bargain. The Red Sox are a big market team and should be willing to spend a little $$$ especially if they can avoid a risky long term deal. In trading for Kimbrel, the Red Sox get a dominant closer for one full season (2022) and a playoff run that could end in a championship (2021). We also can't forget that two of the Red Sox's best bullpen arms are free agents at the end of the year--Barnes and Ottavino--and so the Red Sox will need to address the bulpen one way or the other. Barnes isn't going to want a one year deal, do you want to resign Barnes to a lucrative multi-year contract? Kimbrel could be a postseason weapon for the Red Sox, he could be the difference between winning and losing a 7 game series.

Watch out for a couple of sleepers for the Red Sox bullpen next year including German (will likely be moved to the pen), Feltman, and Scherff. All three will likely be added to the 40 man roster after the season. Let's say Kimbrel is the closer (for next season), I'm not sure who the top set up guy would be--maybe Taylor, maybe D.Hernandez or Sawamura or maybe the Red Sox acquire someone via trade. As far as Kimbrel goes, and the likelihood of the Red Sox trading for him, he is a dominant bullpen arm this season and that is the kind of player you would expect the Red Sox to pursue at the deadline. Do they pursue a starting 1b as well? That's a tougher question, but pursuing another bullpen arm seems likely.

I was thinking about the Chapman trade to the Cubs as a model for Kimbrel's trade value. Torres was a top prospect, a higher ranked prospect than Downs. And unlike Kimbrel, Chapman was a rental. By trading for Kimbrel, the Red Sox would have a closer for next season and could wave goodbye to Barnes and Ottavino.

Leiter will sign. If he returns to Vanderbilt and reenters the draft next year, he is looking at another group of lousy teams: the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Orioles, Rangers. And so he accomplishes nothing by turning down the Rangers or Tigers this year.

Red Sox postseason pitching staff Starters Sale Eovaldi Houck Pivetta Bullpen C.Kimbrel (trade Jeter Downs for Kimbrel) Barnes Ottavino Whitlock Sawamura Taylor Rodriguez Perez Hernandez (Richards left off) 4 man bench Duran Gonzalez Plawecki Cordero or Dalbec

The great Brayan Bello will pitch in the Futures game on Sunday. Another excellent start for Groome: 5.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 ER, 2 Walks, 9 Ks.

I've read that the Tigers have Leiter as 1a and Jobe as 1b. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, which would shock many people, the Tigers will likely take him at 3. (and would definitely take him over Jobe). The only way the Tigers might not take Leiter is if Mayer is still available, but most people don't expect Mayer to be available at 3. My new top 4 mock draft: Pirates: Mayer Rangers: Leiter Tigers: Jobe, but there is a chance the Tigers could go Watson or House Red Sox: Davis Thus I now have Lawlar falling out of the top 4.

Cordero is getting his first start at 1b in AAA tonight, and thus the idea of a 1b platoon is back on. Let's see how this might work. (1) Santana released, Cordero promoted (2) Andriese released, Houck promoted (3) Workman released, Sale takes his spot (4) Rios demoted, Red Sox trade for top relief pitcher. How about a reunion with Craig Kimbrel? If the Red Sox go with a 1b platoon of Cordero and Dalbec--and need two roster spots to cover 1b--there is probably no room for Duran. Also, assuming the Red Sox make the postseason, the postseason rotation might look something like this: Sale Eovaldi Houck Pivetta (with E-Rod and Perez moving to the bullpen (joining G.Richards, who gets moved to the bullpen during the regular season) I guess some people might prefer this: Sale Eovaldi Pivetta Perez (With E-Rod and Houck moving to the bullpen (Joining G.Richards). Also, in considering what the postseason roster might look like, there are probably too many pitchers. It would make sense to put Duran on the postseason roster, an extra position player, and leave off one of the pitchers, such as G.Richards. I would be shocked if G.Richards makes a significant contribution from the bullpen. Moreover, would you really trust using G.Richards in a playoff game from the bullpen?

I would like to know if they are continuing to work Cordero out at 1b or if it was just a one time thing. While trading for a reliever seems pretty certain, the Dalbec situation is a bigger mystery. Maybe they really like Dalbec and think he will eventually produce and have no plans to replace him. But then I watch Dalbec's at bat in the 8th inning last night, he swung at a pitch (the first pitch of the at bat) that bounced on the ground before it ever reached the plate and I can't help but think that the Red Sox noticed that too. LOL.

Cordero took ground balls at first base 5 or 6 days ago. Since that time, he has not yet appeared in any AAA games as a first baseman, but he has played LF and DH. If the Red Sox liked what they saw and are serious about moving Cordero to 1b, why not move him ASAP? Who really cares if Josh Ockimey gets less playing time. Maybe Cordero was a total butcher at 1b, I'm inclined to think that is so since he hasn't play the position in real game action thus far. Rather than move him to 1b, perhaps the Red Sox will use Cordero as trade bait over the next few weeks. There are some lousy teams in baseball that have nothing to lose by giving Cordero a chance to succeed at the major league level.

An excellent must-read article by Sherman--a conversation with the Yankees top sabermetric guy, Mike Fishman. https://nypost.com/2021/07/05/analytics-boss-answers-all-with-mlb-buzzing-about-yankees-obsession/

I'm a big believer in that Theo Epstein idea of competing for 7 or 8 years out of every 10, meaning that for 2-3 years (out of every 10) the organization takes a step back and rebuilds. I think this is a good approach even for big market teams and an absolute necessity for smaller markets. I don't know if the Red Sox actually practice this intentionally, but if you look at the Red Sox's records in the 21th Century, something like this seems to be going on. During the Cherrington years, the Red Sox went from last to first more than once (if I'm not mistaken). Last year was also a step back year for the organization. It is better for an organization to suck, and finish with a top 10 pick, than finish around .500. While the draft can be a crap shoot, an organization is more likely to find great players in the top 10 of the draft (for example, a player like D.Jeter was never going to last until the late first round) and teams with poorer records also have an advantage in international spending. By having a few downs years, the organization is in a better spot to obtain high end young talent. Moreover, when you have a down year with no chance to compete, the organization can be sellers at the deadline and bring in young talent that way. Under Cashman, the Yankees reload every season so that the Yankees have very few poor seasons. And that might not be the best strategy especially if Hal is going to be more fiscally conservative than his father.

One thing about Ottavino: he isn't the youngest guy in the world, and, with the Yankees, he had a tendency to decline late in the season. I remember one year for the Yankees in which he was basically a non-factor in the playoffs. While he held on for the save last night against the Angels, Ottavino didn't look all that great. At some point, the Red Sox might want to put him on the IL for some extra rest. In addition, it would be a good idea to trade for a high end relief arm just in case.

I didn't kinow he could play first, but yeah, that would be 7 players for 6 starting spots, a nice way to give everyone a little rest while keeping Duran in the lineup. Game 7 (Santana rests) Duran CF Verdugo LF Martinez DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Renfroe RF Herrnandez 1b Vazquez C Arroyo 2b

This can't be right. If Santana has a value of 5.3, how can Santana and Duffy combined have a value of 4.1?

Do you know the values of Dalbec and Chris Murphy (a prospect on the rise)?

Let's say the Red Sox upgrade the 1b position with a player like C.Santana, I'm trying to figure out Duran's role for the 2021 season. Promote Duran, release D.Santana. Even though Duran does not have a starting job, he plays almost everyday. The Red Sox would have 5 starting spots for 6 players: Duran, Verdugo, Hernandez, Renfroe, Martinez, and Arroyo. The Red Sox would rest one of the 6 every game, rotating the rest so that all 6 players would start 5 out of 6 games. Game 1 (Duran rests) Santana 1b Verdugo LF Martinez DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Renfroe RF Hernandez CF Vazquez C Arroyo 2b Game 2 (Verdugo rests) Santana 1b Duran LF Martinez DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Renfroe RF Hernandez CF Vazquez C Arroyo 2b Game 3 (Hernandez rests) Santana 1b Verdugo LF Martinez DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Renfroe RF Duran CF Vazquez C Arroyo 2b Game 4 (Renfroe rests) Santana 1b Verdugo RF Martinez DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Hernandez CF Duran LF Vazquez C Arroyo 2b Game 5 (Arroyo rests) Santana 1b Verdugo LF Martinez DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Renfroe RF Duran CF Herrnandez 2b Vazquez C Game 6 (Martinez rests) Santana 1b Verdugo LF Bogaerts SS Devers 3b Renfroe RF Duran DH Hernandez CF Vazquez C Arroyo 2b

Chavis has been a train wreck in his latest major league stint: 3-for-25 (.120) with nine strikeouts. I suspect he gets demoted when Arroyo returns? Let's say the Red Sox trade Jeter Downs, preferably for some kind of pitching upgrade. They would need Arroyo to hold down the 2b position for a couple of years until N.Yorke is ready, but Arroyo is only 26 years old (I thought he was older for some reason) and so he could be the starting 2b for a few years. Moreover, since it is pretty safe to assume that Duran will be the starting CF in 2022, the Red Sox will have Hernandez and Arroyo for 2b in 2022. N.Yorke can hit--it won't take long for him to reach the majors and thus Jeter Downs is expendable.

Since returning, Houck has an ERA of 3.07 with 19 strikeouts and three walks (14 2/3 innings). --------------------- With N.Yorke taking off at Salem, I'm starting to see Jeter Downs as the Red Sox best trade chip. I wouldn't trade Downs for a rental, however. Chavis is a trade chip too with considerable less value than Downs. Dalbec would also be a trade chip if the Red Sox acquire a starting 1b. I would offer Dalbec and Chris Murphy to the Royals for Santana and Zimmer. Get it done!

Cole was booed off the mound at Yankees stadium after his poor performance against the Mets: I wonder if Cole has ever been booed by a home crowd? Yankees fans are pretty informed, they know about the 300 million dollar contract and the sticky stuff issue. This could get ugly for Cole. His ERA was over 4.00 for the month of June and he is getting off to an inauspicious start in July. Also, Yankees fans & commentators are taking aim at Cole on social media: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/gerrit-cole-booed-by-yankees-fans-ripped-social-media-disastrous-outing-vs-mets

There is a great line in the movie Moneyball. The A's are trying to replace Giambi and Damon with less expensive players and they begin considering another player (Scott Hattenberg maybe?) and the scout says something like "he can't throw, he is slow and unathletic." Billy Beane's great response: "he sounds like an Oakland A already." LOL.

Even if the Yankees turn into trade deadline sellers, a trade chip like A.Chapman has lost value. Teams would want Green, though. I would fire Boone, but based on Cashman's comments I think he stays until the end of the season. Cashman finds a new manager in the offseason and Hal S. sticks with Cashman even if the Yankees miss the playoffs.