oldtimer

Now we need to get the middle of the order contributing offensively again.

Bogey and Martinez are no shows.

Looking at our top ten prospect list and finding Downs fairly high doesn't agree with his stats at AAA. Nor does Groome, who hasn't been very effective ,up so high.

I guess the more likely competition for the 2nd WC spot is the Mariners at this point.

We have Schwaber, Martinez and Shaw in the lineup who are the big and slow types. We have Kiki, Renfroe, Verdugo, Rafie and possibly Arroyo with decent speed and Bogie, Dalbec and the catchers with average speed. It's not all about base stealing. It's about the ability to take the extra base on an outfield hit and also scoring where our slow guys get thrown out. Cora talked about speed being important and I believe him.

I question Houck as a closer as his command under pressure may be a problem. Whitlock seems to be cooler under pressure and has excellent stuff, but both Whitlock and Houck may be better handling longer relief stints. Seabold remains to be proven. I was thinking one left handed starter and one solid setup man/Closer. I too would look for a first baseman with good defensive skills and also for a catcher although they are hard to come by at a decent cost.

I'm definitely not up on all of minor league prospects. Let's hope that our program can develop one or two of them into useful contributors in 2022. We need some help.

Comments on the actual staff Starters: 1. Chris Sale is being paid $30 mil in 2022 and 27.5 Mil in 2023 and 2024. That is ace money. He will turn 33 before the start of the 2022 season. While still very good I doubt if he will be able to provide ace quality starts that the money indicates. It will be interesting to follow his efforts for the remainder of 2021. 2. Nathan Eovaldi is currently our best pitcher with great velocity, an array of pitches and a physicality that is hearty enough to see him last in games into the later innings. We have him for 2022 at $ 17 mil. He turns 32 at the beginning of the season and if he has another good year could get a a multi-year contract at near ace money. At that age, should we compete? 3. Nick Pivetta was a steal for us. At the start of 2022 he will be in his prime at 29 years old. He has shown qualities of a mid-level starter but has been inconsistent at times. The way I understand it he will be in arbitration next season. I would try to sign him to a 3 year contract. 4. Eduardo Rodriquez is a second left hander behind Sale. He has mid-level starter stuff but seems to suffer from a lack of focus at times. He has been a nibbler in the past running up his pitch count due to this so has trouble lasting past 5. He is only going to be 29 early in the 2022 season but resigning him is complicated by his FA. 5. Tanner Houck is definitely a starter/long reliever candidate for 2022 and on. I understand he is working on at least one more prime pitch to go along with the 4 seamer and slider. He needs to learn to throw more strikes and not to tire himself out early and the additional pitch might help him get to three times around the order. At 26 years old and at the arb stage in 2022 we should consider a longer term deal. 6.Whitlock is another starter/long reliever candidate. What a steal from the Yankees. Another 26 year old who could definitely become a starter. He has great stuff now and should be considered for a long-term contract. Long Reliever: 1. Garrett Richards seems to have found his best spot as a long reliever. He will be 34 in the 2022 season and will be owed $1.5 mil although as a FA, we might not be able to sign him. My offer would be two years and maybe $3.5 mil a year which might not do the trick. 2. Conner Seabold is also a possibility as a starter/long reliever. We haven’t yet seen him at the ML level so it is hard to know what he is capable of. At 26 years old and still available to us we need to get a close look. If it works out he can get a start or two in the majors in 2021 we can get a look, otherwise it may come down to spring training. So looking at starters and long relievers for 2022, there is real uncertainty about signing E-Rod, which would leave us with one lefty starter. It appears we can get at least one starter from Houck, Whitlock and Seabold. I would look at the FA market for a competitive left hand starter and compare his virtues with E-Rod before committing. Two quality arms out of the three young pitchers could fill any needs in long relief and emergency starts. I wouldn’t rule Richards out if he can be gotten for no more than a 2 year contract at the type of money I mentioned. Spot Relievers: 1. Matt Barnes will be 32 going into the 2022 season and is signed for $7.4 mil a year to close. He did a good job closing for us with his 4 seamer and knuckle curve. He appears to have exhibited a case of tired arm and lost confidence of late but may bounce back with rest. Hard to know if the extension was smart. 2. H Sawamura was a great pickup for us this year. He will be 34 in 2022 but still has good velocity and a wicked splitter. I don’t know his contractual status but think he is a quality spot reliever. He may be showing signs of fatigue in August. 3. Josh Taylor started off poorly for us in 2021 but found his form and pitched extremely well for us from then on. Everyone has hiccups, but his have been minor. He is a much-needed left hander in the BP and at 29 he should be resigned. Don’t know his contract status 4. Darwizon Hernandez is an effective hard throwing guy who suffered a relatively minor injury and should return this year. He is 26 year old in 2022 so could continue to be mainstay of the BP going forward. He is in arb next year. His issue is command issue which might limit his use in high leverage situations although young guys can improve. He represents a second left handed reliever. 5. Adam Ottavino has been used in high leverage situations this season for us with mixed results. At 36 years old next season he should be looked on as on the decline. He still has reasonable velocity and his slider can be a wicked pitch, but he can get into trouble losing command. I think we may owe him $2 mil for 2022 but would be reluctant to bring him back. 6. Martin Perez will be a 31 year old FA and some team may offer him a contract for 5th starter money. We would probably only have any use for him as a reliever for less money so I assume we let him walk. 7. I not in love with either Hansel Robles nor Yacksel Rios. Both throw hard but suffer from serious command issues. If we could keep Rios in the minors he might be of some value to us during the season. Robles is a FA and I would let him walk. 8. Ryan Brasier will be 35 in 2022 and it appears he will be in arb. If he can make it back, he might prove to be a solid but not high leverage reliever who can throw strikes. 9. Austin Davis has not impressed in his period with the Sox. I would try to off load him. 10. Phillips Valdez can be effective but has great trouble finding the command to be a consistent relief pitcher I would stockpile him in the minors but don’t have a lot of hope for him. We have Bello, Murphy, Walters, Winckowski, Ward, Schreiber and Groome in development. It shouldn’t be too much of a stretch to expect at least one of them to reach the ML team in 2022. I would be looking to the FA market for another high leverage reliever since we still have question marks which will likely carry over into 2022. How much can we afford in the market?

My general comments on pitching 2022 and beyond. Setting up the pitching staff for 2022 and onward is a very complicated business. On first principles, the Sox could have either 13 or 14 pitchers on the roster coming out of ST. I would prefer 13, however Cora chose 14 in 2021. Currently they have a total of 22, if you include the 40 man roster as a repository of talent available to the majors. I count 8 more not on the active roster that have some lesser chance of appearing in a big league game in 2022. Perhaps that will signal an improvement in the development of pitching talent by the Sox minor league coaching. If we do go with 13 pitchers on the active roster, what should the makeup consist of in general. I would expect 5 starters capable of going at least 5 innings and better if they can go at least 6 on average. Coupled with that I would expect that there would be 2 longer relievers who could fill in as starters if a BP game was needed. The remainder of 6 would include 6 spot relievers with 3 of those being of the higher leverage types including closing capability. The old story of righty and lefty mix comes into play here, with 3 right handed and 2 left handed starters and 3 left handed relievers and 5 right handed relievers allowing for optimum flexibility and variations on that based on available talent. The question of velocity comes into the game now as many pitchers are hitting 95 and above. I agree that velocity is important but not if command is sacrificed in a way that makes for a lot of walks. Pitchers are asked for full extension of their delivery on their fastballs which seems to make them prone to physical injuries. Also, clearly starters need a variety of quality pitches if they are to go multiple times through the lineup. Long relievers need at least 3 quality pitches while spot relievers can get by with 2. Command is extremely important. Most common of the pitches thrown is the four seamer, followed by the 2 seamer (sinker) and cut fastball. Nice to have a slider, a changeup or a splitter. The curve balls of various types, including the knuckle curve although effective seem harder to control. If you keep 9 pitchers besides the active roster on the 40 man, some of those will be protected and may be recovering from issues but too valuable to let walk. There may be only 5 or 6 that can be transitioned to the majors as needed when injury strikes. Having a starter and long reliever stashed in that way along with maybe 4 spot relievers makes sense to me. Looking at the Sox roster for 2022 and beyond for specific names dives into the deep water of choices. I will share my choices separately as this is already a long entry.

What we need to see more out of the meat of the order and a stabilization of our BP. Without those happening our likelihood of gaining on the Yankees and Rays is low. Can we beat out Oakland? That's the only realistic hope but we need more from Martinez and Bogie.

Gamblers choice.

The lower part of the order is coming through. Renfroe, Verdugo, Shaw. I hope that whatever hot streak they have gotten into rubs off on Schwaber, Bogie and JDM.

Tough outing 80 pitches in 4 inning with a walk and 8 hits. The Sox offense looks anemic so far so Houck may need to come out if there is a chance to win this game.

We have gone to the big and slow lineup. Cora indicates Duran would not get at bats if he stayed so I suppose he did the right thing. Proof will be if the team can win with this approach.

Yes and they finally got a base hit from one of the most unlikely players as the 8th player in the lineup. Right now this lineup doesn't appear to be killing much.

Moreland has the glove and would have been a smart addition while Casas is readied. Several of us made that recommendation.

After Shaw won the game with a walk off grand slam is unlikely to be an acceptable time to criticize our first base situation. Dalbec has been guilty of serious misplays at first and his hitting also doesn't appear to be improving with too many weak at bats. we got Shaw as a temporary option as a sub for Dalbec against right handed pitching. They do represent about 75% of pitchers faced. Shaw is big and slow and has not been hitting and was already seen to be expendable from another team. He came in defensively in the game today and failed to make 2 plays that a good first baseman should make. Both seriously hurt us. Fortunately for him and for the Sox he hit the GS. The news is Schwaber will have his maiden voyage at first this week. He is a professional hitter but it seems a stretch to start him there. This year we have tried Dalbec, Chavis, Gonzalez, Santana, Arroyo and now Shaw with Schwaber on the horizon. Kind of speaks to problems in the Sox front office.

Prolonging the agony.

matinez, bogaerts and Devers up with a man on second, If we can't score here it's on the meat of our lineup who haven't shown up today so far.

Yes, Shaw came in as a defensive replacement for an error prone Dalbec but couldn't make a play many first basemen would. Follow that with a potential inning ending groundball to Bogaerts. A flip to Arroyo where he should at least gotten one but dropped it. Barnes was not good giving up those hits but he also got no support.

The Rays started Chris Archer today and told him to go as long as he could as hard as he could. Archer was rejected from the Pirates and back off of injury. Archer now tops out at 93 mph. He went two innings followed by 4 other pitchers, each contributing so they held the mighty White Sox to 0 runs while piling on 9 of their own. Quite embarrassing for the White Sox I would think although they did not fold like the Red Sox accordion act yesterday, but just couldn't muster offense and couldn't stop the Rays. Some say the Rays can't use pitchers as they do, but the proof is in the pudding. Good defense, timely hitting and what appears to be expert handling of their pitching is winning a lot of games.

The Rays operate without a lot of starters. They have a low budget but find a way. Their top ace is out for the year.

Sorry for the length of this. I am trying to break comments into segments, but they still get long. Active Roster field players 2022 The following is my view of the field players who are currently starters on the 2021 squad and have a place or may have a similar place in 2022. I also believe that we should keep 13 active field players on the roster with the utility guys being very important and needing improvement in 2022 1. Hernandez has shown himself to be an effective defensive center fielder and second baseman. If he can play center he can also play either right or left so he has that much sought after versatility. He came to the Sox as a utility guy but his offensive performance from the leadoff makes him an every day player. He is an ambush hitter and will swing early if the pitcher tries to get an early fastball by him. He has quite a few strikeouts but also will take a walk and grind on a pitcher. He has good speed as a baserunner. 2. Devers appears to have gotten more comfortable defensively at third base and will probably stay there. A very important part of the team who can get to almost any ball and hit it with power., perhaps because of his great hand-eye coordination. He may become ore selective at the plate over time which would make him even more important. Hope the Sox sign him for a long term deal 3. Bogaerts in my opinion is a key senior player on the team despite being only around 29. He doesn’t have great range but is very dependable. He knows the strike zone and knows what he can hit hard and when to go to the opposite field. I see him as the most advanced hitter on the team with Schwaber being the only challenger. 4. Martinez is clearly a very valuable player but is one dimensional with DH being his best position. He can fill in as a corner outfielder but is second rate defensively. Surprisingly, he chases balls too often for my liking. He no doubt is a mentor to younger players so has extra value in that regard. He can opt out next year if he wants to give up a 1 year $19 mil deal. I expect to be disagreed with in my view that we should make a priority of signing Schwaber for up to a 5 year deal. Martinez is 34 and may not decline steeply but I would trade him away or let him opt out as one DH is all the team needs. 5. Verdugo is a good young outfielder defensively, has reasonable speed and is a good left-handed hitter. I recommend he reconsider his high loft swing to return to a more consistent line drive hitter. HRs will come naturally. 6. Renfroe is a very good defensive right fielder with good speed and a strong arm. His hit tool is only average and he chases outside the zone but his power is good and he can contribute to the team as any every-day player. I would bat him toward the back of the order. 7. Arroyo is a hidden gem on the team who can play second and sub in for SS or 3rd. He was tried to fill a need at 1st but I would find another person for that. He is one of the better right-handed hitters on the team with good contact and reasonable power. He is coming into his prime years. A complaint about his durability has stemmed from a couple of contusions this hear along with a pulled hamstring while playing out of position. His durability may be fine. 8. Vazquez is a steady catcher and has been durable. His defense and framing are not the best and his hitting has been on a steady decline. Given the premium new FA catchers bring, it might be difficult to find a young capable catcher to replace him. He is 31 now. He represents an obvious hole on the team so at least we should take a hard look at options for 2022. None of our prospects look exciting. 9. Dalbec is an older rookie who I consider a below average defensive 1st baseman. His hit tool is below average and his strikeout rate is high. His one special talent is his immense power. I see keeping him to bat against lefties in a platoon system. Lefties comprise about 25 percent of starters we face. Utility Players 1. Plawecki is a good backup catcher who can hit enough to continue in thee 2021 role. His receiving and framing are adequate for the role and he should be kept. 2. Duran brings something much needed on this team and that is plus speed. His defense in CF has been fine and his hitting is coming along, considering he was a rookie. He has good power and may well become an every-day player with more experience. 3. Munoz proved to be a good contact hitter in 2020 and was doing well in the minors but was not given the opportunity to come up to the 2021 club which I view as a mistake by management. He has utility defensively for both outfield and infield but admittedly his defensive is only average. If we don’t bring him up, perhaps DeShields will show himself to be worthy. 4. Casas is a left-handed power hitting first-baseman with soft hands and a good hit tool. I don’t see him making the team out of ST but he fills an immediate need for the team and I believe he will make the team at mid-season 2022. In the mean-time, we will need someone to fill in. I don’t think Shaw is that guy so maybe we look for a short term FA who can fill in for as long toas it takes Casas to show he is ready. Rest of 40 man field players separately.

Badly.

Last night thee Sox played very poorly and looked lethargic throughout. This was in front of a large home crowd having been at home for 2 days and with a rest day. We put a team on the field made up of almost all the players Moon identified as next years team that was pretty well set except for a couple of pitchers. Despite what happened, I substantially agree with that assessment. So what went wrong? 1. Texas played good crisp defense, while we made 5 fielding errors. 2. Texas hit and ran the bases aggressively while our base running was sloppy and we couldn't string together hits. 3. Texas pitched well while E-Rod was the worst version of himself. I knew he was in trouble i the second inning when he got up in the count 0-2 and then proceeded to throw 3 non-competitive fastballs completely off the plate. (no command). He also failed to run to first on a ground ball to Dalbec. I can't blame Cora for trying to stay with his front line starter but it wasn't working and out relief corp also had an inferior night. So what could cause such a complete team breakdown. Errors, wild pitch. wild throws from the outfield, failure to pickup balls thrown to first, etc.? I don't know, but it certainly doesn't look good for us down the stretch. I wonder what the Rays organization would do when seeing play like this?