oldtimer
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Everything posted by oldtimer
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What will be the 2017 greatest weakness for the Sox?
oldtimer replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think a reading of the book "Francona, The Red Sox Years" by Frnacona and Shaughnessy is a good way to pass the time before spring training commences. Clearly there is so much that goes on from players health, feelings and interactions that get involved with performance. Also the demands put on teams by the front office needs often are opposed to the best interests of winning. So many personalities and non-baseball related issues are playing out continuously. While Theo was a proponent of data driven decision making, he also understood the needs of Francona to have freedom in keeping the clubhouse together in his own way. All of you hung up on Sabermetrics should read this just to raise your awareness of the real world of team dynamics. Concepts like clutch performance and home field advantage can and are impacted by how a manager can set up a rotation and use players in positions where they thrive. -
That doesn't seem to stop you!
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When folks talk about how things are likely to go forward, with us keeping our young stars and trading away aging and costly players I caution them to consider that baseball is not a linear situation. You use the word 'if" they play well we may be able to move some of the older players to allow us to pay the younger guys. I would hazard a guess that at least one of our outfielders will perform well below expectations and other thinking about the team may be needed. The same in the catching department. We do have 4 good pieces left in the farm system but only one of those is a potential starting pitcher. Not so deep there. Maybe all three of the others you mention will be brought up some time this year giving us the opportunity to drop some of our other ageing players, like Moreland and Young.
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I still have pleasant memories of going out and throwing the ball around with my dad and brothers in the late 40's and early 50's and then coming in and listening to the radio broadcast. We were really into the games in those days before TV (for us). We got our first TV around 1958.
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I would put it in terms of unknowns I would put the largest at 3rd base (no pun intended) To me, catching is still and unknown with neither expected starter likely to hit well and Swihart's defense needing improvement The Pen is an unknown with only one excellent addition and three losses. The Bench also is a bit of a question. Holt, Young and Swihart if he is up would give some strength. It was more of a weakness last year
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Recent question concerning the Sox was what happens if Castillo makes a big step forward this season. He was hitting .392 this winter and some are saying having his relatives around and a child may have changed his outlook. I believe he is in the 3rd year of a 7 year contract for around $10 million a year. It is doubtful that he would make the 40 man roster this season due to the salary cap, but if he really comes along, he might find a place in the outfield in one of his remaining years. Young would possibly be gone next year but $10 million is a lot for a reserve player. If Panda can earn a second chance due to the money owed, possibly Castillo could be reconsidered as well.
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Rumors in Boston having the Sox reaching agreements with Trevor Plouffe. It looks like an insurance policy in case things with Pablo don't work out.
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If Swihart looks good enough in AAA catching, then we may have a ML catcher to trade during the season, freeing up some salary and making a RP acquisition possible while staying within the guidelines you mentioned above.
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Yaz was a great player and hit for power and average. It does show me that Beni at 175 3 and about the same height could deliver reasonable power in 2017.
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I remember sitting in the sky boxes with my dad in 1967 in a game where Carl Yazstemski and Reggie Smith batted in succession in the order. At that time I saw the two of them swinging for the fences when a simple single would have brought in runs. It was like they were competing with each other to see who could be a hero that day. It left an impression on me of what sometimes drives players. I might have been all wet, but it sure looked bad to me. That year, Carl hit 44 HRs. He was listed at 5'11" and 175 #. Kind of the same size as Beni.
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A couple of pot stirrers!
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join the crowd. the hot stove is only luke warm now. Keep on stoking it up, someone needs to.
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Probably he has been drinking too many cups of coffee.
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Anyone who is 5' 11" and weighs 255 lbs and thinks he can compete at the ML level is kidding themselves. He had to know the situation yet he lacked self control or interest to do what he needed to do. Now we see that he has taken steps to get into decent shape. Will he regain the ability to compete or will two years of idleness have dulled his performance. We bet $95 mil and so far have lost. With his history, one wonders why we pulled the trigger on him in the first place.
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My view is that JBJ needed to alter his approach at the plate during the latter part of the season and he was leery of making a change when it counted. I noticed he had gone to a longer looping swing, presumably to gain more power. The problem is that he was not making solid contact very often and that means lots of strikeouts and a substantially reduced batting average. I had hoped he would use the off season to experiment with a shorter and more compact swing. Unfortunately, players think they get paid for home runs. That produces guys that hit home runs but strike out at a very high rate. Just look at the DH FA's and there are many in that category. I prefer that line drive 300 hitter with 15 home runs to the strike out king with 30 HRs.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
oldtimer replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Maddux was one of the great pitchers baseball has produced with 22+ seasons of pitching. He had great control and movement. I believe his SO/BB rate for his entire career was 3.37 but for his best year was more than double that. Ryan on the other hand was an example of a flamethrower who was effectively wild. Different styles work at the highest levels. -
Like you, I am part of the older fan base and will turn 76 shortly. I also was an engineering manager and chief engineer for a very large corporation, finally retiring only about 6 years ago. My wife was a math professor and taught statistics, so we both can appreciate data and its use as a tool in evaluation. I also appreciate the human factors which are part of a team experience and a manager like Tony LaRussa expressed many of those thoughts the recent book he participated in. I still play senior softball year round and know too well that one experiences ups and downs in performance. Sometimes it is difficult to understand but it happens even to those of us with vast experience. My opinion is that building a team solely based upon Sabermetrics would to foolhardy as would ignoring that data developed over many years. The smart approach is to use human factors and acquired data holistically and a major league BB team should select it's staff so they can handle both, realizing that no choice will achieve perfection.
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I notice that at least one in the Boston media is claimming Price is miserable in Boston.
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I would keep Swihart and lay of Bautista. There is time to look over things and wait to midseason to make adjustments.
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He struck out 23 of his last 75 PA's, many times not swinging at balls down the middle with runners on base and taking a called third strike. That is not bad luck, it is bad hitting. It drove me crazy to watch him. The thing is earlier in the year he was hitting hard most times to the plate and seemed to lose confidence. Was he physically or mentally exhausted? Has he reverted to a 220 hitter? Due to his weight and lack of speed, will he hit into a lot of DP's? Hard to guess as the Sox have him as the primary catcher now, he seems like a high risk and I would keep my options open by not trading either of the other possibilities.
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That is not at all obvious to me. Swihart was injured and is on the comeback trail. He is younger but he is not the defensive catcher the other two are at this point. He is a switch hitter and looks like he may have a better bat, but even that is a bit of an unknown as he has very little ML experience. If I was DD, I would listen to trade proposals on all three of our catchers at this point. If a good value can be found for one of them, then go with it.
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I don't see the room for Kelly as a starter on the Sox team at least at the ML level. He does have the stuff to be a setup man or even closer going forward. He has gained experience and may even develop an additional pitch in the off season so we may see Kelly become a very important part of the BP.
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Chaos reigns in baseball as it does in life. What could go wrong? Since we have no Ortiz we are reliant on JBJ, Leon, Bogaerts and others returning to form after a significant downturn at the end of the season. Sandoval's return is fraught with uncertainty. Injuries happen to pitching staffs every year, lets hope one of our aces doesn't go out this year. I have been an ardent fan since the late 1940's. We used to listen on the radio as we had no TV then and follow the box scores in the paper. Going to an occasional game was a real treat. I have questioned the front office moves over these many years but have learned that once the trades are made and the teams are set to accept what has been done and hope for the best.
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That is what I heard. The Phillies may turn around and trade him later for better prospects. My understanding is that taking 13 Million off the books for 2017 parks us under the salary cap and resets it for the Sox. I doubt if we now go out and sign an expensive FA like EE.
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What has been done is done and whether we agree or not about the risks taken in the trades, we are now in a position to watch the season unfold. Will Sale be great or sustain an injury? Will our traded prospects make a big impact in MLB or be busts? Will something in between these two extremes take place? Stay tuned and stay polite.