oldtimer

Maddux was one of the great pitchers baseball has produced with 22+ seasons of pitching. He had great control and movement. I believe his SO/BB rate for his entire career was 3.37 but for his best year was more than double that. Ryan on the other hand was an example of a flamethrower who was effectively wild. Different styles work at the highest levels.

Like you, I am part of the older fan base and will turn 76 shortly. I also was an engineering manager and chief engineer for a very large corporation, finally retiring only about 6 years ago. My wife was a math professor and taught statistics, so we both can appreciate data and its use as a tool in evaluation. I also appreciate the human factors which are part of a team experience and a manager like Tony LaRussa expressed many of those thoughts the recent book he participated in. I still play senior softball year round and know too well that one experiences ups and downs in performance. Sometimes it is difficult to understand but it happens even to those of us with vast experience. My opinion is that building a team solely based upon Sabermetrics would to foolhardy as would ignoring that data developed over many years. The smart approach is to use human factors and acquired data holistically and a major league BB team should select it's staff so they can handle both, realizing that no choice will achieve perfection.

I notice that at least one in the Boston media is claimming Price is miserable in Boston.

I would keep Swihart and lay of Bautista. There is time to look over things and wait to midseason to make adjustments.

He struck out 23 of his last 75 PA's, many times not swinging at balls down the middle with runners on base and taking a called third strike. That is not bad luck, it is bad hitting. It drove me crazy to watch him. The thing is earlier in the year he was hitting hard most times to the plate and seemed to lose confidence. Was he physically or mentally exhausted? Has he reverted to a 220 hitter? Due to his weight and lack of speed, will he hit into a lot of DP's? Hard to guess as the Sox have him as the primary catcher now, he seems like a high risk and I would keep my options open by not trading either of the other possibilities.

That is not at all obvious to me. Swihart was injured and is on the comeback trail. He is younger but he is not the defensive catcher the other two are at this point. He is a switch hitter and looks like he may have a better bat, but even that is a bit of an unknown as he has very little ML experience. If I was DD, I would listen to trade proposals on all three of our catchers at this point. If a good value can be found for one of them, then go with it.

I don't see the room for Kelly as a starter on the Sox team at least at the ML level. He does have the stuff to be a setup man or even closer going forward. He has gained experience and may even develop an additional pitch in the off season so we may see Kelly become a very important part of the BP.

Chaos reigns in baseball as it does in life. What could go wrong? Since we have no Ortiz we are reliant on JBJ, Leon, Bogaerts and others returning to form after a significant downturn at the end of the season. Sandoval's return is fraught with uncertainty. Injuries happen to pitching staffs every year, lets hope one of our aces doesn't go out this year. I have been an ardent fan since the late 1940's. We used to listen on the radio as we had no TV then and follow the box scores in the paper. Going to an occasional game was a real treat. I have questioned the front office moves over these many years but have learned that once the trades are made and the teams are set to accept what has been done and hope for the best.

That is what I heard. The Phillies may turn around and trade him later for better prospects. My understanding is that taking 13 Million off the books for 2017 parks us under the salary cap and resets it for the Sox. I doubt if we now go out and sign an expensive FA like EE.

What has been done is done and whether we agree or not about the risks taken in the trades, we are now in a position to watch the season unfold. Will Sale be great or sustain an injury? Will our traded prospects make a big impact in MLB or be busts? Will something in between these two extremes take place? Stay tuned and stay polite.

Pedey was red hot with the bat toward the end of the season. You have to get on base to be a base runner. In that respect, both JBJ and Bogey had problems getting on base during the same period. For that reason, I prefer Pedey batting second and the others later in the lineup, until they show they can hit for a decent average. Both Bogey and JBJ may move forward in that respect in 2017 and I certainly hope they do, for without them hitting we become a much weaker offensive team.

Boston sports writers are saying the Sox were exploring a trade with the Marlins involving Buchholz for a pitching prospect. The Marlins refused at least for now.

Of course there is risk when you bring an Ace pitcher in and trade away very good prospects. Sale at best will start around 35 games and with no feeling out period or significant injuries might post an ERA in the low 3's. The rest of the games we will start guys we had last year although the back end rotation guys probably will not be called on as often. We should give up less total runs in 2017 if all goes well. Missing Ortiz means we probably will not score as many. We have risks with Sandoval at 3rd base, Leon's hitting may not be repeated and JBJ may not have taken the off season to improve his swing. We will learn about this as the season unfolds. What was done will now play out on the field. DD may make one more move with Buch and pick up one more BP pitcher. I don't see more than that happening.

It is hard for me to become excited by our prospects, I count Benintendi as a ML player now. Devers or Travis would have been packaged in the deal had the White Sox wanted them instead of Moncada or Kopech never mind Basabe. We have a solid team going into the season and I hope Sale doesn't get injured and Sandoval can return to ML form. I also hope that Smith can return and make an impact in the BP.

Devers will likely make it to AAA sometime this year and should be considered a 3rd base prospect.

Baseball by the numbers

The core include Sam Travis who appears to be a possible to make the team some time in 2017, Devers who is a longer shot for 2017 and Groome, who is a ways off. No as deep as we might be, but some nice talent to add to the mix.

Clearly, as fans we are not into the intimate details of players attitudes and performances. It also seems clear that the organizations collective wisdom is less than perfect. Castillo, Craig, Sandoval and others seconds that. What should be the goal is to fill real imminent needs with players of at least equal value to those traded, while containing risk? In the case of Sale, you could say we filled a need for a Ace level starting. Was it an imminent need? Our staff looked decent without him but better with him. Is there risk with a pitcher like Sale? Absolutely and the risk is moderate. Were the assets equal of less in value to us? We had a major investment in Moncada who may play in the majors for many years while Kopech appears to have a major league career ahead. Basabe and Diaz are decent assets to fill out a minor league program with a possibility of further development. So at the end of the day, we have to trust that our organization is informed enough and has established the correct goals (win now) and that this trade and or other trades will prove to be beneficial.

I think that there is at least one additional move to be made by DD which might improve the bullpen and/or reduce the payroll. That said, I am also concerned that the risk assumed by trading 4 prospects for one SP could bite us this year. How many SP's rack up major innings year in and year out without incurring injury?

I'm not sure I would count Leon all year as a plus. He certainly fell way off from his hot streak. Also, are you counting on Sandoval as a plus before he shows he can do something good?

I am hopeful we get a better year out of JBJ and Pablo can at least be average from him. Lot to hope for but some like Betts and Pedroia may fall off of last year leaving us needing more hitting. But where would someone like Bautista fit into the lineup? I am reading a book "3 Nights in August"' Buzz Bissinger. The book centers on LaRussa and the deep thinking a manager goes through. In the Preface and Prologue some interesting comments about how resistant to change players are. What they perceive got them to the majors can't be changed, even when it's not working! They have to warm up the same way, approach the plate the same way, even to the point of not stepping on the chalk line in the batters box. Those comments seem to apply to JBJ, who got into a long looping swing and never moved away from it at years end. I am hoping he will redirect and get back to making better contact.

Interesting to see such a diversity of opinion from the so called knowledgeable baseball people.

The winter meetings are essentially over and DD made big moves. The Sale move is mostly regarded favorably on the board, but a significant risk is involved that one Ace with a violent delivery and a lot of innings might be injured leaving us short of two excellent prospects and two other possibles. Only time will tell is the trade is good and DD stated his objective of winning now. The question I has is what other moves are still in the cards? 1. Trade Buch for salary relief and another RP? 2. Move Abad off the roster in a trade deal or packaqed with Buch? 3. Look to trade a catcher and go into the season with 2 and only minor league backup? 4. Acquire a major left handed bat for possible use as a DH? I think the most likely is a deal involving Buch.

No, Rutledge was reacquired in the Rule 5 draft from the Rockies. He is a potential 3rd base backup.

That's a pretty definitive statement. I would think DD is more flexible and would consider any offers that add value to our club.