Some of our compadres on this site use long term performance to justify decisions for the on going team. I am reluctant to do that with players who appear to be breaking out of their long term performance mold. Kelly did look to improve last season toward the end and may well have found something. Bogaert's hitting really was better in 2018, presumably because he took to heart to swing at good pitches earlier in the count and to try to drive the ball. Using long term statistics to justify decisions about Wright or Pedey are no more than a guess and are probably not close to reality. I'm not worried, as I think the Sox front office is aware of the likely performance of guys and will usually make good decisions. Like you, I believe the loss of Kimbrel, without a suitable replacement will impact the team's performance. But like Kimmi, I would be reluctant to pay big bucks and more reluctant to get into long term deals for closers.