oldtimer

I am hopeful that Beni will hit to all fields more often than last season. Maybe it's the wall, but I thought he tried to hit to left much of the time and that he took away a significant amount of his power by doing so. I don't see him as a power hitter, but do believe if he can spray the ball he will get more hits. He could go from a good hitter to a top of the line average hitter.

It looks like Cora and or DD made the decision after a long deliberation. They know more than we do and I trust their decision.

When do the Sox need to make the decision to keep either Leon's or Swihart's salary off the books? Is it Tuesday?

Something to be said for maintaing a consistent batting order as starting pitchers these days often only go 5 innings anyway.

If Mookie gets the same amount of ABs in 2019 as last season, he will be paid the equivalent of $38,500 for each AB not counting benefits. Sounds like a living wage to me. I prefer him betting 2nd in our iineup but don't see an enormous benefit either for 1st or 2nd.

That wasn't an option in the poll!

The performance of players leading up to their FA year will have a lot to do in determining their worth. For Betts, it is a crap shoot and he is betting on a sustained level of performance to give him substantially more than $20 mil AAV for 8 years. If his performance is sustained, we benefit from it but then will probably have to match $35 mil AAV for 10 years. That would send me looking for alternatives.

You misread what I said, which is that what our regular players don't perform well in spring training, how can we expect them to flip a switch when the season begins. I am not bothered at all by win/loss records.

I grew up in Mass and later moved to upstate NY. Both had cold and snowy winters. We bought in Florida as a 6 months a year home and then sold out of NY and landed in the mountains of NC. Best of both worlds, not too hot in the summer and warm in the winters.

Spring Training is winding down and soon the meaningful games will begin. Every team is hopeful at this point and some have justification to be hopeful, as do the Sox. Being an older fan, I tend to look to eyeball tests and accumulated wisdom tomake judgments, but also realize the statistical approach has its place. DD and the front office must have to use the statistical approach primarily to structure the team but how do they really look at making those judgments? 1. They have an amount of money to spend based on the competitive balance tax. That amount is known and they may exceed it but need to reset to it to avoid serious penalties. Hopefully they never exceed the second tier unless perhaps they foresee a championship. 2. They have to apportion the spending to cover 13 field players and 12 pitchers, with room to allow for adjustments based on the inevitable injuries and major underperformance. They also have to account for dead money contracts (ala Pablo and Justin last year). In addition there are non salary related costs to consider. 3. How do they look at apportionment? Probably based on WAR as the major guideline. I have always been a little confused by that term. If I had all 0 WAR guys on the team, does it mean I can win 81 games per year? If so, I would look to have some guys who would contribute to the 25 WAR number needed to be a champion. If I was DD, in simplistic terms I could pay a percentage of the money left in the competitive balance tax maximum over what a group of 0 WAR guys would earn, based on the contribution to the necessary additional WAR. It doesn't appear to make sense that you can pay that way as the big stars gets so large a slice of the pie that there isn't enough for the remaqining guys. In reality, young stars coming up get significcantly less than their value so a consttant stream of them is needed to keep a team competitive while staying under the competitive balance cap. 4. Team balance is also needed and DD has got to keep a functional team throughout the season. Utility players and call ups need to be budgeted for. 5. Risk assessment has got to be a key area Risk includes health, injuries and declining performance. The front office probably has a model for declining performance and can see from injury histories the liklihood of lost time duriing the year. Risk has to go up for a player if long term contracts are given as the models are probably less reliable over longer terms. The larger the contract given and the span of time envisioned increases the risk involved to the team achieving its goal of winning a championship. 6. There is also a Chaos factor involved in any decision. One that is unpredicatable. That can come in and throw all the good planning into a mess. So given this line of thinking, first is it sound? If sound, then what would I advise? 1. Get rid of all underperformers based on WAR rating 2. Avoid long term contracts with the term of contract based on the age of the player. Maybe 10 years for a star 25 or 26 years old. years for a guy just past 30 and 2 or 3 years max for those 33 years old. If the contract demand exceed value to thee team, trade the player. 3. Put money and effort into the farm team and develop ew young players who can make contributions beyond their cost. 4. Reset the competitive balance tax limit (at least as long as there is one) to enhance the ability to strengthen the farm team. How this thinking applies to our existing players is the big question. Is Mookie worth $35 million AAV for 10 years? Similar questions for JDM, Bogaerts and so on. Tough position to be in as a top exceutive. Money Ball suggests a way of thinking that has a hard edge but one that makes some sense.

I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

The going rate where I live is $3500 a month and may be higher on the coast. Three month rentals are required if you can find one.

I still think the poll was a sham as one can ask the sort of poll questions that draw an answer that one wants to elicit. Sort of like political polls. if I wanted a catcher from the Sox, why not just wait for one to be DFAed and pick them up without having to part with any assets?

I thought you said that Spring Training record doesn't matter. My take is what our regular players do in spring training does matter. I find it difficult to imagine they will go from 0 for 3 to solid hitters overnight. I guess that remains to be seen.

I too am in Florida and enjoying it during 6 months of the year, preferring the mountain area in the summer. It's a nice life and I am only 2 miles from the gulf. Blaming Rick Scott for the algae bloom is denying that argriculture is a big industry in the state. Red tide is not well understood and has been around for a long time. We get 250,000 new residents a year because it is a good place for retirees, but perhaps the growth rate will eventually kill the goose that laid the golden egg. We do have spring training games close by. It does get extremely hot at times and limits my attendance to once or twice a year.

It's risky having only two real utility players and with a 2nd baseman who won't start the season and may only play 1/2 the games. I'd also go with 12 pitchers in order to have one more utility guy in addition to 2 catchers. We are llimited because we will go with 2 1st base only guys, and due to their age and history, they may miss being availble for many games this season. Right now, Lin looks like the most flexible utility guy. The hope is Devers will be healthier this season so neither Dalbec or Chavis make a lot of sense as utility guys.

With Trout now expected to sign a 12 year AAV of approx $36 million, the contract for Mookie might also escalate. I can't believe the 12 year deal myself. The risk is tremendous for the team. Imagine an injury or just normal decline setting in and leaving them with that dead money salary for 8 years. Things have gotten absolutely crazy. I wonder who does their risk analysis work?

All reasons for the Sox to keep him.

The hope for him was 90 or 100 games this year for $13 million. Not much of a bargain. After opening on the IL he will have a potential 152 games to fit in 90 to 100 starts. I am hoping for the best here.

I am a long time fan of Duke and follow them closely as I do the Sox. I guess it is an acquired taste.

With Pedroia iffy this year and Nunez reportedly recovered from his knee injury, I think we should keep Nunez as a solid utility player who can give us the big hit at times. Leon by himself may find a home as a backup catcher and possibly we can get something back to boost our minors while dumping $2.45 mil from payroll. Not much, but we should take every saving we can get for a non essential player.

It may turn out to be meaningful if we find our BP hopefuls can't get the job done. We may wind up with a choice of Workman or Thornburg or other poor performers against Latkins, Feltman and Hernandez. We didn't spend on RP's and presumably won't this season, so the choice may come down to washed up experience vs hard throwing inexperience.

One advantage of bringing Devers up last year was that he learned he had to be in better shape and from what Cora has said, he has done just that. I would expect that will help his agility and also help him avoid injuries. I'm waiting to see the roster posting for him but I suspect the 237 of last year will be 220 or lower this year. This kid could show the most improvement of any of the Sox in 2019. As far as young players getting to the Sox next year or earlier, I see Chavis and Dalbec as possibly competing for 2 spots even if Devers sticks at 3rd. Ist is clearly going to be a place where substantial money will be saved with one of these guys taking over, but don't forget 2nd base which also may open depending on Pedroias season. They talk about Chavis as a possibility at 2nd. Also Casas is a top Prospect and may show his potential with a good a good year in the minors.

Most people here accept that W-L record in ST and performance during the season don't correlate well. On the other hand, what is being questioned here by some is the lack of hitting by last years regulars and also poor performance by the pitchers we expect to rely on during the season. It is early now, but I would expect our regulars to start hitting and our starting roster pitchers to perform competitively.

Would like to see at least a little hitting. Our starters are sleep walking. The BP looked terrible today. I know it is spring training but the coaches and managers are watching these guys and expect at least a little effort.