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Everything posted by notin
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I'm saying I don't know and neither do you. I'm a baseball freak and a math geek and I'm impressed by their stuff. I do know it is certainly possible to run Roulette style predictions for all possible outcomes (something coolstats does to determine playoff chances, for example) to determine the possibilities in an inning. But while I know it's possible, I couldn't do it myself. However, I will say that on your second example with Pedroia, not really sure which statistic you're questioning and how it relates to the rest of the inning....
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Well, they probably don't use any metric any of us have ever used. And that counts batting average, RBIs, fWAR and the "Eye Test"....
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Probably true, but the off-season is still young. Untold bargains are sometimes found in January. As are crazy impulsive decisions Bear in mind our decision-maker for the team is a guy who once lost a 33 year old DH for one season, and in order to replace him, signed Prince Fielder to a 9 year $214mill contract. And he signed Fielder to that deal on JANUARY 26, long after everyone else had given up bidding on Fielder. So who knows? Maybe in mid-January Dombrowski, out of sheer boredom, inks Tyson Ross or Jon Niese or Ivan Nova or whoever to a 1 year $5mill deal just to break up the ennui.
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The game where teams hold players back for a variety of reasons all the time? Just a guess. The whole "best players make the team" does work for Little League. But - and this is not condoning it, but a fact of MLB - contracts and control rule the Show. The Sox chose not to demote but Rodriguez, but if they did do it (and they still might depending how the off-season plays out) it would be to keep control of as many players as possible. This kind of thing happens all the time with all 30 teams. It was the reason for the overblown Tommy LaStella Retirement Threat last season. (Maybe that wasn't as big of a deal in Boston as it was here in Chicago. If so, apologies for the hopefully not obscure reference.)
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I think they're just making the pieces fit. And they did have 0 options for Elias. They must have learned something and updated. It happens. I do think that - even with salary as a concern - it makes zero sense to run Buchholz out of town to accomodate Abad. But that alignment does take some urgency out of the bullpen roster crunch...
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According to Soxprospects.com, Elias has onr option remaining. That website is not affiliated with the Sox, but their projected roster has Abad, Ross, and Hembree in Boston and Kelly and Elias starting in Pawtucket. Personally I like Kelly better as a key reliever than a depth starter and its possible Soxprospects is just trying to make all the pieces fit, but that alignment is possible
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I do plan on targeting him in my NL Only Auction League....
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It would be especially funny if Josh Tobias found his way on to the Sox "untouchable" list by then too...
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Many new sabermetrics stats that people eschew are more involved and use more data than people realize. I'm not so sure they don't take into account how a play effects the remainder of the inning, maybe not as directly as one individual example asks. But they are typically more complicated, intricate and involved and try to be very encompassing. And the people who develop them do clearly have a solid grasp of the game...
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No one is saying "screw defense," but at some point the offensive downgrades can more than negate the defensive upgrades. For example, the best defensive catcher in any season is usually credited with about 12-15 defensive runs saved, per Fangraphs. So if the hitting catcher allows 15 more runs, but on offense can outproduce the defensive catcher by 20 runs created, id he still the worse option?
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Exactly. Bucholz' option was exercised as more of a safety net, just in casr no blockbuster Sale deal materialized. Coupled with the Moreland signing, this deal makes it obviousb that resetting the tax limit was a goal this off-season. ..
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Moreland's signing made it obvious that there was a goal of staying under tha tax limit. No one including Mitch Moreland himself believes he is equal to or better than Encarnacion, but it was a one year deal gor a cheap price. While not the guy I would have gone after to accomplish this, I can't sit here and make definitive arguments for the merits of Brandon Moss over Moreland. But I can definitively say Moreland is cheaper than Encarnacion and that was a major factor. ...
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While funny, no. Dombrowski made two trades earlier this month with two teams that desperately need catching help and yet still kept Swihart. I find it hard to believe thst the White Sox preferred Basabe and/orv the Brewers preferred Shaw or Dubon over hinf
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If this was the logic behind the trade, why pick up the option at all? Not like Tobias made it worth the risk. What made Buchholz expendable was the acquisition of Sale, whose availability was unknown 5 weeks ago. Still one had to think Clay had a little more value in a market headlined by a 37yo whose topped 100 IP once in the past 10 years and still got almost $50mill. That said, this is one of those trades I don't like, but at least understand...
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If the Mets were willing to move Syndegaard or Matz or deGrom, they'd have acquired Andrew McCutchen by now. The Red Sox outfield appears set and hopefully Swihart stays out of it...
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This was a straight up salary dump. If Dombrowski wanted a legitimate prospect, he could have gotten more by paying part or all of Clay's salary. If the goal was to get below the limit, it makes sense. But it does come at the cost of pitching depth and moves Owens and Johnson one rung further up the ladder. Hopefully some pitching with options better thsn those two can be acquired. Doubtful the Sox chase Encarnacion, as they appear to be set on staying under. Maybe if Bautista is willing to accept a Nelson Cruz type deal (1yr $8mill) that might happen, but probably not. Although if a one year $1mill player option was added, he would only count as $4.5mill towards the Luxury Tax. There are still a few out of options relievers fighting for maybe 2 spots in the bullpen - Hembree, Ross, Elias, and Abad. I would expect a deal or two here that can hopefully restore some pitching depth. ...
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Lucchino was easy to vilify because he just seemed so unlikable, but he had a long career in baseball front offices probably for a good reason and certainly gets all the aspects of building a team better than any of us. Cherington had some flaws. And while I liked him, I repeatedly critisized his unwillingness to trade prospects. However the criticisms he gets now are short-sighted, as he was involved in building the farm that enabled Dombrowski to make his deals. It's like people are criticizing Cherington for working hard and amassing a fortune, and then praising Dombrowski for spending it all in 12 months....
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I can see that point, but I think the issue could also be the manner with which he handled the situation. The counterargument is that he was paid to pitch by the White Sox, and while I would agree that promotional throwback jerseys are pointless, if they want him to wear one, that is part of the job for which they were paying him. Ad Red Sox fans, we may have benefited from his tantrum, so in that respect it worked out...
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a700 doesn't "just voice" anything. He constantly misread posts and derides people for his misinterpretations. And then he passes his judgment, tosses in an insult andbthen gets angry at them. And the only thing that makes him angrier is if you do the same thing to him. He does stop thst immature behavior only long enough to alternate posts calling Sandoval a "fat slob" with posts explaining why "fat slob" is a term of endearment. And absolutely, yes, he does start the name calling and childish behavior.
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Since I've never wrung my hands over this trade I stand by my accusation that you can't read. But it's nice that you have me on top of this list, which I can only assume makes you number two. Although I think you're number two regardless of where I fall. So what exactly so you bring to tjis board, besides deriding people for opinions you assign them and fat jokes and profanity and wishing death on people, only to claim afterward it was sarcasm, which we both know you only did to save face. See what it's like when people assign you your opinion and then hold it against you? You'd think having seen this example multiple times would help you learn, but surprise surprise, you don't. You're an angry little man...
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Of course Dombrowski needs to get one ring before he even equals Cherington. And even then, Cherington was involved in the 2004 and 2007 rings, especially 2007 as he and Hoyer acquired Beckett while Epstein was on his sabbatical...
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A nice summary. I like the deals for Sale, Smith and Thornburg. But I think Dombrowski gave up too much for Kimbrel and Pomeranz. ..
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If he is, it certainly helps that he came here after a division title and not the consecutive last place seasons
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I don't think any non-White Sox trashes Kenny Williams as much as me. And while I agree with Sale that Williams was out of line for going back on his word to LaRoche, I wouldn't be surprised if Sale's outbursts expedited his departure from Chicago ...
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Ok. My bad. He did have a bad history, starting with trashing Williams and Hahn over the whole Adam LaRoche thing. But then if hr didn't do that stuff, he might not have been available. Its not like thev White Sox had a bad team core to build around...
