moonslav59

Much of the recent Sox success has been due to improved play from... last 14 Days OPS 1.067 Vadlez .893 DHam .857 Smith .779 Rafaela .717 Westbrook Whodathunk this?

I think we stick with DHam, EValdez and Romy G/Grissom/Westbrook at middle IF for the rest of 2024. I doubt we trade for SS or 2B. I'm not sure we consider a rental type trade, but if we could find a big RHB that plays 2B, maybe... (Doubtful) I still think we make no deals that are just about 2024, unless we trade someone we are sure would not be in our future plans, anyway, and that begs the question about why would another GM want that type of player, unless it is a guy like Wink, who is apparently in the doghouse. I think we trade Jansen, no matter what. We may feel like Hendriks and ICampbell can fill a pen slot, and mayb e we try Slaten as the closer. We might trade Martin, if he is back and in form. O'Neill is another strong trade candidate, if we are sellers. Pivetta is the hardest one to trade, without it looking like a total punt on 2024. I guess we'll know more in 5-6 weeks.

And, if Story ever writes a chapter in his book, there is DHam to add to the mix at 2B and middle IF. Story Valdez DHam Grissom Romy G or Westbrook Yorke (Rule 5 addition?)

Lets say we add Fitts, Guerrero, Yorke, Dobbins and Lugo as Rule 5 protectees. Here might be the 40 man, before any additions or swapouts: 12 SP: Houck, Giolito, Crawford, Bello, Fitts, Criswell, Perales, Dobbins, Murphy, Walter, Winckowski, Wikelman 10 RP: Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Fulmer, ICampbell, Kelly, Booser, Guerrero 3 C: Wong, McGuire, ____ (Heineman or the like) 2 1B: Casas, Dalbec or the like 4 2B: DHam, Valdez, Grissom, Yorke 2 SS: Story, Romy G or Westbrook 1 3B: Devers 6 OF: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Lugo Bubble to be replaced by trade or FAs

Yes, I mentioned Hendriks, who will grab a slot, this summer, actually and Fulmer, but yes, Gio, Story,Whitlock and even Murphy will need slots, unless we trade Murphy. Casas will be taking a slot back, this year, too. You are right. Maybe there will be a bigger crunch than I thought. I think MVP is right about Wink being as good as gone (by trade.) My guess is that Brez & Co. have identified a few others that don't fit their plans or march to the same drum. If we weren't short on catching depth at the ML level, I could see McGuire being traded, this winter. Our OF seems crowded, and I can't see us dealing away Duran, Abreu, Rafaela or Refsnyder, but we need a big RH'd bat, and what other position has a player that fits that bill, except OF and DH. We currently have Yoshida and Ref to DH, and it may be hard to cut ties with Yoshida. Ref is great vs LHPs, and has even hit righties well, this year, but we need another RHB, besides him. Casas will not be platooned. That leaves middle IF or OF/DH. Maybe we role the dice with the same everyday roster, minus O'Neill or an O'Neill replacement, but that is very risky, unless we are counting on Story to come back, stay healthy and be that big RHB. DHam and Grissom should not be viewed as O'Neill's replacemenmt in the line-up.

You must think the risk of Jh Garcia being taken is minimal. Lugo seems like he'll be grabbed by someone- not that this means we should protect him.

With out lack of pitching prospects that are MLB ready, he and Murphy might be kept, despite some major questions. Agreed.

I counted Anderson and Keller as gone, already, since their team control ends after 2024.

He may be dealt at the deadline- likely as part of a package deal. He seemed to be redeeming the early scores given on that Beni trade.

I think Horn and Walter are very easily replaced by a Rule 5 player, if the Sox think the prospect is worth protecting. If you had to pick now, who gets protected? I'd say.... Richard Fitts- yes Hunter Dobbins- likely Luis Guerrero- yes Jh Garcia- yes, although kinda far away from the bigs Matthew Lugo- maybe Nick Yorke- likely Angel Bastardo- maybe not Maybe 5

That's how I remember it and why I said "Bloom must see something nobody else does."

We are arguing over the sample size being 5 or 7 games. Really?

I count up to April 11th as still being "out of the gate." OK, he was good from game 2 to game 5. He has a 12.79 ERA after his first 7 games with a 6.63 FIP. He struggled.

That has to be part of it, but we've had a few hot players going on weeks and weeks long stretches. I look at our farm, this way: of course nothing is a guarantee. We entered the season viewed as a top 6-12 farm in all of MLB. Some services openly said they dinged our ranking due to an unbalance between pitching and everyday players (more on that later.) Here is my breakdown: The Big Three Basically everybody had and still has our big 3 in their top 25-40. I don't think any have taken a step back, in terms of expectations, and to me, all have improved their standing. The Second Tier While Yorke took a dip in the last rankings, even he has shown a strong resurgence after being promoted to AAA. Maybe he moves back to top 12 in the system. Players like Bleis stayed healthy and even in the standings, but we have seen some big jumps by Campbell, Cespedes, Lugo, Zanetello, and I suspect JH Garcia to join this group in the next rankings. The Pitching Slaten just graduated, but to me, he still counts on the 2024 farm list. He easily met expectations and then some. The injury to Perales may blow up all the gains he made, this season, but nonetheless, he looked great. Fitts has moved up to #7 and Sandlin #9. Both still have big questions about being solid ML pitchers, but they do have skills. The drop to the next tier is pretty wide. There is no sugar coating our lack of bonafide pitching prospects, and I'm never a fan of striving for quantity over quality, but sometimes some longshots work out fine. We have seen a couple, this year, already. We do have many ranked pitchers from #15 to the low 30's: 15. Wikelman (trending down) 16. E Rod (should pass Wikelman in July) 20, Monegro (not doing well) 22. Penrod (27 y/o) 24. Dobbins (may move up some and is Rule 5) 25. Guerrero (Rule 5) 26. Early (maybe a sleeper) 28. Bastardo (Rule 5, this year) 29. Portes (probably the real sleeper) 30. Zeferjahn (been up and down) 31. Gambrell (probably out of the 32. Mullins (the third sleeper) I think the farm took a step up, but I know I'm a homer on this.

It is a stat that is not really included in anything, except by itself and in things like WAR. SBs can certainly be big game changers.

At the time of the trade, I felt Bloom (not others) must have seen something in one or both, or the trade made no to little sense. (That was the whole head-scratcher rambling thread.) I'm happy some positive results from that trade are occuring. I hope DHam can continue at even just .725-.750 ball. (His D necessitates good batting and baserunning.)

I'm not sure sure there will be a roster crunch, unless we add 6 or 7 free agents, this winter. To me, there may be 5-6 needs (3-4 major) to fill the gaps in 2025, and we lose 7 players to free agency: Pivetta Jansen Martin O'Neill Anderson D Smith B Keller Middle Let's say we fill 5 of them with free agents of trades that (net) add numbers to the 40: SP2, Closer, Middle Infielder, Big RHB and SP depth. That leaves 2 slots to fill with Hendriks & Fulmer. Then, we look to add x amount of Rule 5 players before and trades, non tenders or DFA's happen. Would anybody cry if we did not bring any of these guys back? Dalbec B Horn Walter Uwasawa or maybe even Murphy, Wikelman and one from Westbrook or Romy G could be traded for a non-40 prospect(s.) We should have room for 5-7 Rule 5 additions, and remember, Anthony, Teel & Mayer are not eligible for Rule 5, this December, so we can wait to add them to the 40, until the day the are called up. Here is a shortened list of notable players that are Rule 5 eligible this winter: Category A Category A (Maybe/Likely) Richard Fitts Hunter Dobbins Luis Guerrero Jh Garcia Matthew Lugo Nick Yorke Angel Bastardo Category B (Long shots) Blaze Jordan Nathan Hickey Allan Castro E Paulino Y Monegro R Zeferjahn Nick Sogard C Troye Category C (Probably zero chance) Alex Binelas Theo Denlinger Grant Gambrell Niko Kavadas CJ Liu Corey Rosier Noah Song I always think more might be added than end up being added, and there is usually one surprise addition, so who knows. I think there will not be a crunch, unless we add 6-7 new players to the 40, beyond Rule 5.

They weren't really considered "decent prospects," at the time. Even up to a month ago, nobody expected either to amount to anything. There was even some DFA talk on DHam.

I love SBs, but I do not think a single + SB is equal to a 2B. Also, if SBs count towards TBs, then CS, pick-offs and maye other outs made on the basepaths would need to be subtracted.

Well said. There is still a good chance we miss the dance, but we have a lot to be optimistic about. We have so many players with 4-6 years of control, many pre-arb going into 2025. Our farm is top 5-10. Our weakest areas for the last 5 years: pitching and defense, now look better/okay (D) or even top tier (SP & RP).

I think we can all agree, our depth and depth to the depth has outperformed everyone's expectations. Houck was apparently the starter added to the rotation to take Gio's place. Criswell was the back-up to the back-up, taking Whitlock's place. Martin is on the IL, Wink was demoted and ICampbell struggled out of the gate, yet our pen is top 4 in fWAR. While our 1B depth has been a joke, Smith has been on fire since May 31st. Romy helped stop the bleeding at SS, then DHam and EValdez, along with Westbrook and some Rafaela at SS have turned the MI into an okay place. (Story and Grissom have done nothing.) Our OF has been awesome, including the "depth" of Refsnyder & Abreu. The whole OF has a .800 OPS combined. With the farm about to add even more depth, I like the foundation we are setting up.

Ripple & Weeds Believe It or Not... 1. The Sox are 5th in MLB in SBs with 69. 2. The Sox are 6th in MLB in OBP AND SLG%. 3. The Sox are 6th in Total Bases but 11th in Runs scored. 4. The Sox lead MLB in 2B+3B with 151. 5. The Sox are 6th in team ERA and WHIP. 6. The Sox are ranked 3rd in MLB in pitching fWAR. 7. The Sox pen is ranked higher than their rotation in fWAR. 8. The Sox pen and rotation have nearly identical xFIPs. 9. The Sox are ranked 24th on D with OAA, 12th with DRS and 17th with UZR/150. 10. The Sox are 2nd in MLB with a 3.55 SIERA (just 0.10 from PHI) 11. The Sox have allowed 44 Unearned runs to score.

Agreed, and it was a good gamble to take.

Just don't ever admit this is enjoyable or fun.

Can't seem to gain on MIN, who has won 5 straight. Some numbers going up these last few days, including Rafaela nearing the .650 mark, (Is that the new Mendoza Line?) .924 Devers (Career high) .878 Refsnyder (Out of his mind, this year) .857 Casas (We need you back, son!) .857 Wong (Been awfully consistent, this year) .848 O"Neill (When does the Yoshida leash get reigned in?) .829 Abreu (Need you back, too!) .816 Duran (17 SB) .786 DHam (18 SB and the shocker of the season among batters) .748 Westbrook (Beats about 90% of our 2Bmen for over 5 years.) .681 Yoshida (Might be benched, if he doesn't wake up) .668 E Valdez (Was in the .400s, going into June.) .651 Romy G (Went nutty, tonight w Woo) .647 Rafaela (Padding his team RBI lead) .636 Smith (.920 since May 31st may force Dalbec to use up his 9th life) .621 McGuire (Not sure what happened to his bat, but he's been a master with the staff) .421 Dalbec (Will we finally see a DFA?)